Oh Snap!! Looking kinda iffy!!
Pretend 44 only has two options: Pitching the idea that living with the world's very first terrorist regime all nuked up is awesome or pitching the idea after the fact that a "perilous" (that's a double envelopment ala Cannae - nicht war? ) military campaign to stop the illegit Mullahopolis from xing the threshold into new clear power and projection is awesome
CFR cats Ray Takeyh and Steven Simon quiz it up ala WaPo and feature a few money shots (decorum prohibts presenting the twisted Arab Street concerns) -
"...As it contemplated the use of force, the administration's decision-making would be further complicated by the need for a plan to unwind military hostilities and make sure a confrontation did not escalate out of control.
"...The White House would have to signal to Tehran that the U.S. military objective was not to overthrow the clerical regime but to enforce the will of the international community by disabling Iran's nuclear program. The message would need to make clear that for the United States, hostilities would end with the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, but that if Iran retaliated, Washington would press its attacks until Tehran could no longer respond.
"...A sobering thought for the mullahs, but also for a U.S. administration that would have to carry out the threat.
"...Administration planners might be tempted to assume that reason would prevail in Tehran -- that a chastised and crestfallen theocracy would confine its response to organizing large demonstrations while basking in the allegiance of a more unified nation and that privately, Iran's leaders would concede to the logic of power and desist from a conflict that their country could not win.
"...But prudence would lead the national security team to counsel the president to plan for a potentially prolonged conflict. The Iranian regime may find heightened nationalism useful in diverting attention from the deficiencies of its rule, but to mollify its public, the theocratic leadership may be pressed into a more open confrontation with the "Great Satan."
"...Caution and circumspection evaporate in a tense atmosphere, and the uncertainty surrounding Iran's response to a strike would seriously burden the president's decision-making.
Pic - "That may not be the worst of all possible outcomes." with Ornella Muti
Saturday, July 31, 2010
Oh Snap!! Looking kinda iffy!!
Friday, July 30, 2010
Yo y'all - it's the Nakbah!
"...If words have any meaning, it is certainly accurate to describe the outcome of the 1948 war as a catastrophe for the Palestinians. Between 600,000 and 700,000 men, women, and children—even more, depending on who is telling the story—left their homes. Palestinian civil society disintegrated.
"...At the war’s end, the refugees dispersed to the Jordanian-occupied West Bank, the Egyptian-occupied Gaza Strip, and neighboring Arab countries. Many lived in tents, eking out a bare subsistence, and were then denied the right to return to their homes by the new State of Israel.
"...During the 1948 war and for many years afterward, the Western world—including the international Left—expressed hardly any moral outrage about the Palestinian refugees. This had nothing to do with Western racism or colonialism and much to do with recent history. The fighting in Palestine had broken out only two years after the end of the costliest military conflict ever, in which the victors exacted a terrible price on the losers.
"...11 million ethnic Germans living in Central and Eastern Europe—civilians all—who were expelled from their homes and force-marched to Germany by the Red Army, with help from the Czech and Polish governments and with the approval of Roosevelt and Churchill. Historians estimate that 2 million died on the way.
"...Around the same time, the Indian subcontinent was divided into two new countries, India and Pakistan; millions of Hindus and Muslims moved from one to the other, and hundreds of thousands died in related violence.
"... Against this background, the West was not likely to be troubled by the exodus of a little more than half a million Palestinians after a war launched by their own leaders.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Way back in the last millennium, Great Satan faced a COIN Op in South East Asia called Viet Nam. Split like NoKo and SoKo today, the Northern half was led by the expansionist Bolshevikish type colletivism ala Ho Chi Minh. The South had a series of corrupt governments that could never seem to get their act together and under ammoral, corrupt Realpolitik - never really had to.
The Myth of the Tet Offensive claimed Great Satan was defeated in the field by NVA Regulars and behind the lines by a super ninja cadre of bullet proof communist guerrillas at the same incredible instant.
And none of it is true. Instead, the South's undercover Viet Cong spent themselves in a bloody insurrection that gained absolutely nothing and were annihilated to the point of never mounting any Resistance ever again. The losses in trained subversives, true believers and militant sympathizers would never be reconstituted.
Long time FoPo Expert, Nat'l Sec Cat, historian, author and member of GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD's board of advisory directors Dr James S Robbins' hot! new book about Tet goes to press today (order your advance copy here).
Entitled "This Time We Win: Revisiting The Tet Offensive," the collected intell on it looks sweet!
"...Most of what Americans know about the Tet Offensive is wrong. The brief 1968 battle during the Vietnam conflict marked the dividing line between gradual progress towards an ill-defined victory, and slow descent to a humiliating defeat.
"...The fact that the enemy was, in fact, handily defeated on the ground was immaterial; that they could mount an attack at all was deemed a military triumph for the Vietcong. At least this is the received wisdom of Tet.
"...This Time We Win at last provides an antidote to the flawed Tet mythology that continues to shape the perceptions of American military conflicts against unconventional enemies and haunt our troops in combat. Indeed, America’s enemies recognize and find inspiration in the prevailing Tet narrative.
A thorough re-examination of the Tet Offensive, this essential work examines the battle in the familiar frameworks of terrorism, war crimes, intell failure, troop surges, leadership breakdown, and media bias.
"...The result is an explosion of the conventional wisdom on this infamous battle, one that offers real lessons for today’s unconventional wars. Without a clear understanding of these lessons, we will find ourselves reliving the Tet Offensive again and again.
Pic "Crack the sky. Shake the earth"
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Khmer Rogue, under the chronically demented Pol Pot (what a name yo), feared secret enemies were hiding about everywhere. The regime even sanctioned killing people who wore glasses because they knew they could read.
One of the horrific places they stashed their own people for thorough, leisured torment was a prison called S-21.
And it was Commandanted by a cat nom de guerred "Comrade Duch."
Real life name Kaing Guek Eav is that rare breed of despotic actualizer - cats who 'actualize' the designer demonic desires despots deign. Think 3rd Reich's Ss Obergrüppenführer Theodor Eicke or Bosnian Serb Major General Radislav Krstic .
Comrade Duch was captured, imprisoned and just now sentenced to to 35 years in prison for the systematic death machining of 16,000 people.
Or, 11 hours for every life lost under his commadantery serving an ultra bolshevikish style regime that killed 1.7 million of their own citizens in 1975-79 in a mad attempt to create a Stalinesque Paradise in the power vacuum after Great Satan fled Viet Nam.
Rumor has it Comrade Duch became an Xian during his pre trial jail stint.
This is significant.
Comrade Duch and God will have a lot of stuff to talk about - hopefully sooner than later.
Pic - "To Destroy You Is No Loss" with VanessA
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
And the response is often "These cats don't seem so cunning to me!"
"...These rulers’ most important priority is regime survival. The people’s well-being and country’s interest is secondary at best. To stay in power, a dictatorship needs to generate foreign enemies, reduce freedom and monopolize economic wealth.
"...This is, in many ways, the opposite of the Western democratic view that a government which provides freedom and material benefits for its citizens is the one most likely to stay in power.
"...To ensure regime survival, the dictatorship must protect its m'Hammedist and Arab credentials. Using these two pillars in various combinations, rulers mobilize the people. A key way to do this is anti- Western and anti-Little Satan demagoguery: The government portrays itself as a champion of m'Hammedism and Arabism against demonic foes.
"...What the West does in response is unimportant to a populace that already views it as an enemy and whose information about the outside world is filtered through regime and ideological propaganda.
"...In these dictatorships, the army’s main purpose is to support the regime rather than win wars. The main purpose of the educational system and media is to glorify the regime, not tell the truth and help fix its problems.
"...This approach provides neither rapid progress nor better lives for the people. But if you start with the original premise – keeping the regime in power comes first – everything makes sense.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Often times it seems that Land of the Pure's nat'l motto could be "Hey ya'll! Watch this!"
Faithless Wikileaks only reinforces the idea that Pakistan is chock full of intolerant, double dealing infidelity.
Old news - all the cool kids knew eons ago that Land of the Pure's super secret ISI's sleight of hand favored Taliban to rule their 'Strategic Depth" until needed, and this classified intell doubtlessly fired up what later became known as 44's AFPAK Surge.
The leaks reveal that certain cats in Pakistan fear in their dark hearts Great Satan will win in AFPAK - and create an Afghanistan that can stand on its own, that ultimately is going to be able to secure its own territory, not provide a safe haven for terrorists, not drag down the security of the entire region.
It will be interesting to see if Great Satan dangles the recent aid package complete with cash and those cool counter insurgency weapons like F16's.
Pakistan totally freaked about last years aid package - maybe Great Satan should use Wikileaks to cause PAK military's ISI to freak while Great Satan considers watching bits of Land of the Pure fall into interna'l receivership.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Easy! Watching an enemy fall into a trap of their very own design!
Like the creepy overtly robust extra girthy rocket rich His Excellancy Body Part Collector General of Hiz'B'Allah - the mullah picked leader of the most proficient killers and serial tormentors of Americans from Cold War time til 911 time.
Hiz'B'Allah's freaky freak out about UN Investigative Tribunal re: the Hariri Multi Bombing campaign and assasinations means these control freak jerks are in a bind - of their own design.
"...What worries Hizballah is that, if indictments come, Hariri will declare that he does not believe the party’s leadership was involved in his father’s assassination, implying that those accused were rogue elements.
"...This would undermine Hizballah’s credibility, show that Nasrallah doesn’t control his own organization (let him then try to sell Hizballah as the vanguard of an effective national resistance), and make the party beholden to Hariri, but also, more generally, to Syria.
Oh Snap! Well, what can a stymied terrorist clique do?!
Not so much actually:"...A new attack against western Beirut seems absurd. Nor can Hizballah attack the mountains, because Walid Jumblatt is now more or less on the party’s side. Destabilizing the government would also be difficult, unless Syria sees an interest in doing so to gain greater leverage over Hariri.
"...For Hizballah to bring down the government is much trickier. The Hariri government is, above all, the fruit of a Syrian-Saudi compromise. Hizballah doesn’t have the latitude to damage relations between Riyadh and Damascus.
"...There is not much Nasrallah can do, except rely on Syria to ensure that the party isn’t greatly weakened by the ensuing backlash that would follow eventual indictments.
"...The Syrians are as unenthusiastic about the tribunal as Nasrallah is, but being pragmatic they would use any legal accusation to enhance their power on the Lebanese scene, even at the expense of their Iranian and Hizbullah partners.
As best understood - the rowdy 'Resistance' movement (an official enemy on Great Satan's Enemies List) which seems better at resisting their own sovereign gov than any non Persia foreign invaders, may have been so utterly clever headed that they've outwitted themselves more than once this time.
Since Hiz'B'Allah is a glorified forward division of Iran's Praetorian Revolutionary Guard on Little Satan's North 40, gig number one is as a deterrent/response team to any Little Satan enrichment interruptus strikes.
And HBA is kinda successful on that gig - so far - rearming and prepping for any chance or opportunity to reach out and rocket up the ME or maybe even chuck a few V2 type SCUD D's if hot! gossip is correct. WMD warheads optional.
UN indictments would totally queer the mix bay bee - Hiz'B'Allah cannot maintain a "...readiness for war if it chooses to go on the offensive domestically in order to pressure Hariri and the government into denouncing the special tribunal.
"...Nasrallah would either have to opt for domestic instability, which would only divide the country, or avoid that path, so as to preserve some sort of united front against Little Satan.
Body Part Collector General can't do both!
Pic - “HizBAllah is not afraid of anything. Those who conspire against the Resistance and against Lebanon are the ones who should worry.”
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Spoiler Alert! Hot gossip from Strategic Forecast (the spy guys - not the guitar guys) 'splains a bit more about the leaderless cells of enemy creeps behind our lines and how they tend to act out causing grief, mayhem and misery.
"...These calls are part of a move toward a leaderless resistance model of jihadism that has accompanied the devolution of the jihadist threat from one based on al Qaeda the group to a broader threat based primarily on al Qaeda franchises and the wider jihadist movement. With this shift, more attacks such as the Times Square bombing attempt, the Fort Hood shooting and the June 1, 2009, Little Rock shootings can be anticipated.
"...When considering this concept of leaderless resistance and of using publications like Inspire to train aspiring jihadists, it is important to remember that this type of instruction has only a limited effectiveness and that there are many elements of terrorist tradecraft that cannot be learned by merely reading about them.
"...In other words, while the jihadist threat may be broadening in one way, it is also becoming less severe, because it is increasingly emanating from actors who do not possess the skill of professional terrorist operatives and who lack the ability to conduct complex and spectacular attacks.
Pic - "'Nshallah from Chaos Command"
Friday, July 23, 2010
In the Twilight of the Age of Westphalia, dosed again and toast in hand, face to face with confrontational issues that for whatever reason are unsweetly unable to be fixed with economic and/or political pressure.
Great Satan has increasingly resorted to a risque maneuver deploying enough hurt to resolve the sitch at the same incredible instant she minimizes her military losses, innocent civilian causalities and the always popular 'collateral damage.'
"Limited Force - that is"
CFR's Conflict Prevention and Nat'l Sec cat Micah Zenko unleashes "Between Threats And War" and examines delish discrete military ops and strikes courtesy of Great Satan over the last 2 decades. Deep level editing to cipher and discern why such attacks occured, if objectives were achieved, what all made it happen captain in success or failure.Like 36 events in all!
"...In the process, he both evaluates U.S. policy choices and recommends ways in which limited military force can be better used in the future. The insights and recommendations made by Zenko will be increasingly relevant to making decisions and predictions about the development of American grand strategy and future military policy.
Gossip on "Between" looks sweet! Dr Metz at Great Satan's Nat'l War College Strategic Studies Institute gives it 5 stars:
"...One of those rare but valuable works that uses rigorous scholarship to illuminate the dynamics of security decisions. Both theorists and security practitioners will find it challenging and useful."
Available in mid August, "Between Threats And War" shares "...recommendations that have ranged from the bizarre—such as a Predator missile strike to kill Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe, or the assassination of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez—to the unwise—the preemptive bombing of North Korean ballistic missile sites—to the demonstrably practical—air raids into Bosnia and Somalia, and drone strikes in Yemen and Pakistan.
:...However, even though they have been a regular feature of America's uses of military force through four successive administrations, the efficacy of these "Discrete Military Operations" (DMOs) remains largely unanalyzed, leaving unanswered the important question of whether or not they have succeeded in achieving their intended military and political objectives.
An evaluation of Great Satan's choices at the diplopolititary salad bar and hot! reccomendations of new, wicked ways that Great Satan can unleash a 'limited' more better future force:
"... The insights and recommendations made by Zenko will be increasingly relevant to making decisions and predictions about the development of American grand strategy and future military policy.
Pic - " The ultimate tool of diplomacy, force is utilized with varying degrees of destructiveness, duration and effectiveness according to the objectives and military capabilities available"
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Oh you know it player! When it comes to super secret spy girl and spy guy stuff - Great Satan got game!
WaPo's hot sticky tell all sheds light on the Industrial Intelligence Complex and may actually make a great case that "...one cat's duplication is another cat's competitive analysis..."
And all the dang duplicitous intell duplication failed online for finding faux femme fatale "Robin Sage" was fakebelieve:
"...Her connections on it included men working for the nation's most senior military officer, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and for one of the most secret government agencies of all, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), which builds, launches and runs U.S. spy satellites.
"... Others included a senior intelligence official in the U.S. Marine Corps, the chief of staff for a U.S. congressman, and several senior executives at defense contractors, including Lockheed Martin Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp. Almost all were seasoned security professionals.
"...But Robin Sage did not exist.
"...Her profile was a ruse set up by security consultant Thomas Ryan as part of an effort to expose weaknesses in the nation's defense and intelligence communities - what Mr. Ryan calls "an independent 'red team' exercise."
Such an exercise could most likely be nom d'guerr'd as a harbinger of "5th Generational Warfare"
"...If traditional war centered on an enemy's physical strength, and 4GW on his moral strength, the 5th Generation of War would focus on his intellectual strength."
Whoa! Targeting enemy intelligentsia and their will to fight.
Pic "That's What Ya Get" with Hbomb Hayley
Especial shout outs: Adam at Rethinking Security and Lucien Gauthier
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
"...The supply ship at the B naval port has been attacked by missiles and awaiting rescue, and American stealth bombers have devastated 2 of People's Liberation Marines forward alert bases"
Just another day in class at the war simulation center of the Logistics Command Academy of the People’s Liberation Army.
Next up on the extra sextraliscious baby curriculum may very well be the joint military hook up betwixt Great Satan and SoKo getting scoped out by a concerned Collectivist China.
Starring USS George Washington and future air dominance combat jet F22, China isn't fooled by any faux Dear Leader NoKo knockout plots or Nipponese feel good stunts!
"This exercise will take place in the Yellow Sea, which is the entry point to China's house, and they obviously want to show off their military strength"
And to be fair - Red China has a point.
This Operation is nom d'guerr'd "Invincible Spirit"
“In all, over a hundred aircraft will fly in the event. Invincible Spirit will include a variety of training opportunites – flight operations from the carrier, there will be an air defense exercise, strike exercises and opportunities for passing exercises.”
“Anti-submarine warfare is also included in the exercise with both ROK and U.S. Navy ships and P-3 aircraft participating”
At the end of the exercise, there will be a counter special forces exercise. “These occur with some frequency in both the East and West Seas, conducted by the ROK and U.S. Navy.”
It may be closer to the truth to paint "Invincible Spirit" as a big part of Great Satan's "AirSea Battle" designer ops (pdf - hefty - yet perfect for the beach) designed by future cats at Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assesments.
AirSea Battle campaign has two stages. Stage 1, commencing with the outbreak of hostilities, comprises four distinct lines of operation:
- Withstanding the initial attack and limiting damage to US and allied forces
- Executing a blinding campaign against PLA battle networks;
- Executing a suppression campaign against PLA long-range ISR and strike
- Seizing and sustaining the initiative in the air, sea, space and cyber domains
- Executing a protracted campaign that includes sustaining and exploiting the initiative in various domains;
- Conducting “distant blockade” operations;
- Sustaining operational logistics; and
- Ramping up industrial production (especially precision-guided munitions).
"...All elements of an eventual AirSea Battle concept — irrespective of their origin — will require real-world experimentation and testing before being adopted.
And Operation Invincible Spirit may be a really cool start!
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
The realpolitik meme of sucking up to despotries has flourished in Egypt in 44's tenure - cutting way back on democracy promotion in a hood that routinely jails political opposition, beats up 'citizen journalists' and leads the world in hepatitis C, gender apartheid and Great Satan's foreign aid:
"...For all of its shortcomings, Egypt remains a critically important U.S. ally. Cairo has been very helpful (albeit discreetly) in efforts to fuel and supply U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq.
"...And the Obama administration will need Mubarak onboard as it launches a diplomatic effort to forge Palestinian-Israeli peace.
President Hosni has kept the Peace hammered out in good faith with Little Satan through K'Ssams, intifadas, Cast Lead and Hiz'B'Allah's rocketeering for as long as he's ruled (yet not governed).
What comes next will be interesting: A dynastic seccession tricked out in democratic couture?
"...Such a maneuver would still require sanction from the military, however. It is important to remember that in Egypt, perhaps more than anywhere else in the Arab world, politics is very much an ad hoc affair.
"...In Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, new leaders are bred through the monarchy. In Syria, it's done through the Alawis. Egypt has no system for renewal; it has a host of competing constituencies (Arabs, Africans, Islamists, Copts, secularists, the lower coastal dwellers and the upper inlanders) but no institution to emulsify them. Gamal is a political orphan who lacks the influence and authenticity that could sustain a dynastic transfer of authority.
:...So it will likely be the military, not Gamal Mubarak, that fills the void.
Pic - "We need a multiparty political system, a free press, a free society. We need real NGOs that are not intimidated by the government, and we need to abolish the security state. Only then can Egypt be reborn." with Wanha Izhen
Monday, July 19, 2010
Attacking new clear assets and enrichment chicanery is often pixilated as
"... inevitably strengthening the Ahmadinejad clique and the Iranian regime against an external threat; inevitably failing to end the program; increasing Iranian bellicosity in the region and beyond; convincing the Iranian people we’re at war with them; reprisal attacks against U.S. and allied interests in the region and beyond; shattering the international coalition, including Russia and China, that signed on to sanctions because they were assured by Obama those sanctions weren’t a pretext for war.
"...There isn’t a single cost-benefit calculation where attacking Iran makes sense. Pretending otherwise is greater wishful thinking than placing faith in sanctions or diplomacy..."
Aside from the crazy parts about some kind of magical fakebelieve China/Russia hook up getting all shattered and boundless faith in non profit jawflapping, perhaps a more subtle point is being made.
Forget bunker bustering new clear sites - kill the regime at home and their internat'l terrorist assets abroad.
Maybe instead, Little Satan says the heck with it and acts out with a pre emptive preventive strike
"...Now imagine the ailing Khamenei is dead, the Guard Corps has several dozen nuclear devices in its “possession,” and the country is in some political chaos as power centers, within the clergy and the Corps, start competing against each other."... The whole political structure could collapse or the most radical could fight their way to the top—all parties trying to get their hands on the nukes. Since there is no longer a politburo in Iran to keep control (Khamenei gutted it when he downed his peers and competitors), this could get messy quickly.
"...There is only one thing that terrifies Washington’s foreign policy establishment more than the prospect of a Great Satan airstrike against Iran’s nuclear-weapons facilities: a Little Satan airstrike."
Pic - "In the past nine years, Iran has seen the regimes to the east and west of it terminated by large-scale military action by a superpower that has in the past implied that regime termination in Iran is also a desirable option."
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Nuance is a very fine thing - subtle even - yet news that Madame Sec HRC's 2nd Land of the Pure Tour (note Her 1st one was anything but subtle!!) features blinging F16 Fighting Falcons for anti insurgency ops is unsubtle and silly.
The first brood - the latest version F-16 C/D Block 52 high tech combat jet flew into Pakistan yesterday at "...the newly developed PAF Base in Jacobabad"
Sky Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman dj'd the 'august ceremony' and said it's like a dream come true and F-16s already present in Pakistan helped a lot in anti-terror war.
"...The aircraft will be used for precision strikes against militant hide-outs in the country’s tribal regions straddling the border with Afghanistan.
What a hoot is the nuanced views of super m'hammedist PAK Security Think Tank Z'd Hamid ("Our organization is Pakistan, our identity is 'slam, and our constitution is the k'ran") - who hates those precise 'Drones Gone Wild!" yet, is super hot for Great Satan's F16's
“Alhamdulillah!! Another technological milestone achieved by Pakistan air force.”
Pic "People run for shelter when a Pakistani jet appears in the sky because of its indiscriminate firing"
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Long time player Larijani blames Great Satan for bringing back Jandallah from the grave for the old 'doubleback mofo' - fire off a tiny boom 1st, then when folks rush in to help - fire off a more bigger boom.Land of the Pure gets some blame for being a semi nation state of residential terrorists and Wahabbi Arabia gets an honorable mention too.
Most likely just another front in the asymmetrical warfare zeroing in on Preacher Command
Pic 'Oh Snap - and my give a dang is inop"
Friday, July 16, 2010
Since allied NATO cats have displayed a coldblooded penchant for shooting first and quizing dead civilians later - part of 44's AFPAK Surge featured a new, more better set of Rules (more like guidelines, really) of engaging enemies and potential enemies - in an effort to keep from tossing innocents on the pile.
Great Satan's Climb to Glory premier voltiguer Captain Crispin Burke pointed out "...that misinterpertation of RoE at lower levels (one of the most shocking aspects of the Rolling Stan article) reflects a grossly risk adverse culture..."
One of Great Satan's most decorated combat soldiers in the New Millennium - actually the first American to sturm und drang western Baghdad in 2003 - an actualizer in Surging the living daylights out of Iraq during three additional tours - graciously consented to exclusively consort about the Rules of Engagement.
The super sharp edge of Great Satan's broadsword is the world famous Army Major Michael Few:
Rules of Engagement are a norm in any Army, regular or irregular.
These rules define the left and right limits of our actions providing
our moral compass as we proceed time and again onwards towards the
breach risking our lives in service to our nation.
The interpretation of the rules is in constant flux as conditions
change, an ebb and flow of the dirty dishes in the dishwasher. We just
want to turn the washer on and have our dishes clean at the end of the
cycle, but the machine keeps jamming along the way. Unfortunately, the
cycle changes every year in every theatre.
According to some accounts, the problem in Afghanistan arose when
FOB-based lawyers with no combat experience and risk adverse
commanders and staff misinterpreted the rules of war from providing
guidance to the man on the ground to micromanaging his every movement.
In the words of famed COIN expert Dr. David Kilcullen,
“The rules have been interpreted too restrictively," Kilcullen said.
"They've been too legalistic — and also too apologetic."
A paratrooper might translate that as the cowards in the FOB wanting
to play Army won’t let me do my job. This disconnect proved a burden
of the bureaucracy lost in translation towards a lack of trust towards
As a young troop commander, in training, I emplaced too restrictive
rules on my soldiers. After the mission, as we discussed what had
happened, my men asked me, “why do you not trust us?” It gave me
great pause, and I tried to learn from it in the future.
In war, trust and truth are often elusive. The details get muddied and
dirty in the fog of war. Rules of Engagement, mission orders, and
commander’s intent must be built on the trust of the lower level
leader. In truth, this problem is easily corrected.
Train your subordinates, give them specific guidance and clear
mission, and then let them do their thing with your support. If they
cross the line, then replace them, but DO NOT ever hamper them from
completing the mission that you asked them to do. This involves trust
both up and down, left and right along the line.
Dr. Kilcullen goes further to describe the realities of small wars,
“Again, in practice, this population-centric approach often involves
as much fighting, if not more, than an enemy-centric approach, because
putting in place effective population protection forces the enemy to
come to us, so that we fight the guerrillas on our terms, not on
Ironically, an effective population-centric strategy usually results
in far greater losses to the enemy-- in terms of insurgents killed,
wounded, captured, surrendered, or defected-- than does a
superficially more aggressive enemy-centric approach.”
If we accept this to be true, which holds true in my combat
experience, then we must give all trust and confidence to the boys on
the ground. Do not keep them in the wash cycle when they’re trying to
Pic "Train your subordinates, give them specific guidance and clear
mission, and then let them do their thing..."
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Unbehagen! In Nosferatu talk - right before victim xforms into vamp - always seems to be a realization that they are neither alive nor dead - they are instead - Undead.
Kinda like A Stan's brand new creation.
Surgin' General has outmaneuvered Afghanistan's top down tribal kleptocracy in 12 days of negotiations described as delicate (meaning P4 most likely sweetly pointed out how dang undelicate the sitch could get) and Pres Hamid agreed to risk creating militias that K'Bul may not be able to fully control with a weak central gov.
This is significant - after all if Great Satan is really going to hold to the unassing AFPAK date of next summer - then why bother?
P4's phat plot to hook up homegrown villagers into an Anti Taliban Defense Force is a subtle move.
“They would not be militias.These would be government-formed, government-paid, government-uniformed local police units who would keep any eye out for bad guys — in their neighborhoods, in their communities — and who would, in turn, work with the Afghan police forces and the Afghan Army, to keep them out of their towns.”
At the same incredible instant, Screaming Eagles are '...bringing the hate..." to Eastern AStan - forcing Taliban to commit fanboys, resources and game in an attempt to counter surge and are losing their assets at an alarming rate.
Ideally - the Afghans themselves would be doing this on their own. OTOH, an insurgency isn't about being cool and fun to be with. It's infiltration, intimidation and torment inflicted on the locals.
So far, Taliban (Quetta Shura Taliban, Haqqani Network, and Hizb-i Islami Gulbuddin) insurgents have killed tons of civilians and innocents in an effort to stymie fun and free choice - it's always a terrible error when ISOF or NATO do it.“By contrast, we know that the Taliban are deliberately targeting civilians. And they are doing so at an increasingly high rate.”
The Unmilitia could change that.
Pic - "It's Time To Kill"
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Arab League is way more weaker than being led around by the nose by Iran, Iranian proxies or rowdy repentant Ottomans. And not just in those suspect and/or failed and outclassed Arab military machines.
Instability spectates as a spector - Syria could go all the way - the other way, Iraq could unravel and (diplopolititary decorum prohibits mentioning the fakebelieve twin Palestines) now comes hot! gossip that Royal Wahabbi Arabia is as wobbly as dropping two xanex tovarish'd Stolichnaya and Ginger Ale.
"...Last month Prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, a prominent dissident now in exile in Cairo, issued an open letter to his fellow royals, urging them to abandon their desert fiefdom for greener pastures.
"... According to the prince, the current social compact between the House of Saud and its subjects had become untenable, with the government no longer able to "impose" its writ on the people and growing grassroots discontent at the royals.
"..His advice? That King Abdullah and his coterie flee the Kingdom before they are overthrown--and before their opponents "cut off our heads in streets."
The Original He Man Women Hater Kingdom officially denied any chance of a regime change from the inside out as "...nonexistent and fabricated by enemy parties wishing to spread confusion and excitement.
Enemy parties like Preacher Command are keeping the story alive with literally killer quotes from the exiled (and since pardoned) Prince about Saudi Military rising up and hacking all 30K members of the fast growing Royal Family to death in the streets:"No one will attack us from outside but our own armed forces will attack us and cut off our heads in streets."
The corrupt, intolerant duality of Royals and Preachers in a totally unfun unfree 7th century computerized police state has despotically detonated and "... gotten out of our hands interfering in people's private life and restricting their liberties."
This is significant
"...The prince's communiqué may have been long on hyperbole, but its admonition was apt. The domestic compact created over the past seven decades by the House of Saud is simply unsustainable in the long run.
"...And its dissolution, when it eventually happens, is likely to be ruinous for the Kingdom. Given America's deep and enduring reliance on Saudi crude, it could be devastating for us as well.
"...All of which makes a compelling case for serious thinking about the long-term viability of the Saudi state--and what the United States needs to do in order to prevent such a catastrophic collapse, or at least to manage it.
Pic - "There must be a change in the makeup of the current political elite which monopolizes the technocratic, bureaucratic, and security bodies"
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
As 44 does his world problem juggling act it's kinda like watching girls do Jäger bombs chased down with Jello shooters and then engaging in a demanding dance regime - it is not done that well, yet one is surprised to find it done at all.
Two probs in particular are the Palestine/Little Satan forever quest and the new clear issue with Persia's Preacher Command.
"Diplomacy is often the art of is the art of thinking twice before saying nothing," so the recent free flow of ideas at the Aspen Idea Festival seemed highly significant when Arab Emirates Ambassador Usef al-Otaiba said attacking Iran would be absolutely awesome!
"Absolutely, absolutely. I think we are at risk of an Iranian nuclear program far more than you are at risk. At 7,000 miles away, and with two oceans bordering you, an Iranian nuclear threat does not threaten the continental United States. It may threaten your assets in the region, it will threaten the peace process, it will threaten balance of power, it will threaten everything else, but it will not threaten you."
"Every day the Emirati Military wake up, dream, breathe, eat, sleep the Iranian threat."
Whoa! Hold up Sheik Ambassador! Wouldn't such an event totally ruin the world with all kind of problems?
"Problems with people protesting and rioting and very unhappy that there is an outside force attacking a Muslim country? That is going to happen no matter what."
Compared to an oath breaking nuked up illegit regime with a penchant for tormenting their neighbors, their own dear daughters and any democracy in weapons range is the Great Satan option a choice easily eased into?
"If you are asking me, am I willing to live with that versus living with a nuclear Iran? My answer is still the same."
44's insistence on something something Palestine über alles instead of doing what wicked realists and wishful progressives should be wanting to do - prevent a regional stability mix queering event like a terrorist loving new clear Mullahopolis -
"...has given the pressing Iran issue less attention than its quixotic quest for a final peace between Israelis and Palestinians, which is a misplaced priority. The Palestinian issue has been around for decades, and there is no immediate need to resolve it, even assuming that is possible.
"...It poses no threat to the United States, and when it periodically reaches a boiling point, it can be contained. Arab states especially can live without a near-term resolution of the Palestinian issue, which does not materially affect their national interests.
"...A nuclear Iran would pose an immediate, existential threat to states in the Gulf region. And unlike the Palestinian problem, which can be left to simmer, the Iranian nuclear threat is on a rapidly diminishing timeline. It needs to be addressed urgently and decisively.
Pic - "After five days, the regime in Tehran has broken down completely, incapable of offering any resistance"
Monday, July 12, 2010
When confronted by all the clues - Sir Paul allegedly laughed them off saying "Rumours of my demise are greatly exaggerated.
Can such Paperback Writering day tripper into diplopolititary discourse au courant?
All ya need is love!
Every few months another tome appears claiming the end - the demise - of Pax Satanicus Giganteus and how neoconism has totally played out.
Like this curious piece entitled "Neoconservatism: An Obituary." Another academic (yay - NOT!) weeps copious tears that those wild wack neocons are creating a self fulfilling vision:
"The neoconservative vision of a good America is one in which ordinary people work hard, read the Bible, go to church on Sunday, recite the Pledge of Allegiance, practice homespun virtue, sacrifice themselves to the 'common good', obey the commands of the government, fight wars, and die for the State."
Actually, the Paleoconfauxderates have pioneered that meme eons ago - most likely inspiring Dr T to wrought his magic free magic.
The amazing thing about the entire collective of anti Great Satan lit - all the way from Dorian Gray's ancient "Imperial Designs," al Qaeda's possible spiritual dark horse/strong horse enabler Dr Fred Kaplan's "Daydream Deceivers" and Danger Dad's (shout out to Noah!!) new book "40 Year War" is these cats are actually encouraging and strengthening the hot! sweet and stick stick sticky ideals and designs of daemoneoconservatism.It's totally true. Any important quiz in current events and foreign affairs - the neo's consistently score big with American psyche because neoconism has the best - most correct - answers:
Diplomacy:"...Many American and European proponents of a realist foreign policy embrace engaging adversaries, underlying such an approach to diplomacy too often is an assumption of their adversaries' sincerity. Neoconservatives harbor no such illusions and so seek to combine diplomacy with military power.
"...While neoconservatives are not trigger-happy, they do recognize that a strong defense can both deter would be aggressors and enhance diplomacy.
T - ism:
"...Neoconservatism also provides a better answer to the fight against terrorism than does realism. Too many U.S. and European officials and academics misunderstand terrorism. Terrorism is a tactic. Those who employ it make a cost-benefit calculation and conclude that they can gain political objectives through the murder of civilians.
"...When diplomats and academics ponder root causes and seek compromise and concession, they increase the benefit of terrorism and drive down relative costs. The Middle East provides myriad lessons as to how such conciliation backfires.
"...The threat of aerial bombardment and targeted assassination prove a greater disincentive to terrorists than international conferences and mini-bars at 5-star hotels.
It's true - lack of democrazy is the handmaiden for failure, rocket rich rejectionists, pitiful police states and the cause celeb of instability.
"...The representatives of dictators should not be toasted in the West, even if they are wealthy with oil. Diplomats and policymakers should not dismiss the notion that men and women around the globe are entitled to the benefits of democracy, despite the rejoicing of Iraqis, and the growing chorus of Iranians, Lebanese, and Palestinians demanding freedom.
"...For too long, European Commission officials, self-righteous non-governmental organizations, and self-described peace groups have subverted human-rights standards for narrow political agendas. They have done irreparable harm to those suffering at the hands of dictators and terrorists.
"...The cost of pretending that engagement with dictatorship is successful is often far higher than a broader strategy with transformative diplomacy at its core and democratization as its goal.
"...A remarkably effective vessel for an exceptional vision of American global dominance that has long transcended ideological and party borders. This goes a long way towards explaining its survival – and suggests it will be with us for quite a while.
Aided and abetted by Dr D at AmPow, Dr M at WAJ and 'Winston' at SOM
Sunday, July 11, 2010
"...Call it military rule 2.0. And as a result, in many developing countries the military is more powerful than it has been in years. Thailand, where the military once seemed to have retreated to the barracks, now finds the armed forces playing a critical role in the current political standoff. In Pakistan, which also appeared headed toward democracy a decade ago, the military has returned to its role as the central power base."...From Mexico to Peru to Honduras, Latin America has over the past five years witnessed a weakening of civilian rule over the military, as the armed forces act with increasing impunity
"...It’s a dangerous kind of power. Armies can commit abuses virtually unpunished, dragging down developing democracies that seemed to be beyond the era of military influence. And, by presenting themselves as the only institutions with long-term stability — even as they simultaneously undermine that very stability — the new generation of military men undermine civilian leaders in another way:
"...They make themselves indispensable to foreign partners like the United States.
Pic - "When ordinary civilians suffer at the hands of repressive regimes, Great Satan and the West should not be embarrassed to substitute all manner of coercion for empty rhetoric'
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Friday, July 9, 2010
As in General Mad Dog Mattis who just got the gig as the COM in CENTCOM
Great Satan's Cent Com (Central Command for the unabbreviated) stretches from East Africa to China. It's one big mess of dysfunctional states, semi states, kingdoms fully stocked on failure, violence, young people and oil. Iraq on one edge and Afghanistan on the other and tens of thousands of American boots already on the ground in both.
The Land of the Pure is there in one corner, threatening to act up and out with nuke powered jihadis'. The catty cornered Strip is burning like an Ipod about to catch fire.
On the north 40 the last millenium's Collectivist Union time republics of the Central Asia 'Stans, skip along under despotries ranging from the merely authoritarian to the genuinely insane.
And right in the middle lies Iran.
In Great Satan's military heirarchy of assignments and commands, Central Command is at the top.
Large, in charge, CENTCOM features all the killing machines, regime changers and truckloads of hurt and destruction that can sweetly be precisely delivered on the heads of Great Satan's enemies at anytime.
Danger Room gives up the sweet hot! deets n gossip
"...Meet the new prospective leader of all American forces in the Middle East and South Asia: Marine General James “Mad Dog” Mattis, whom Defense Secretary Robert Gates tapped this afternoon to take charge of U.S. Central Command. Not many intellectuals have such mean-muchacho nicknames. But Mattis is the kind of guy who rabidly gnarls through the gristle of pretty much every military shibboleth.
"...He was into counterinsurgency before it was dogma. At a time of tech-driven constant communication, he thinks the military should be switching its radios off. Want to ensure that all levels of the force are networked together? Mattis wants a hierarchical organization like the military to embrace decentralization. And now, pending Senate confirmation, this guy is going to be running the most important command the military has.
"...Don’t get it twisted: Mattis will mess you up. He has commanded Marines in both Iraq and Afghanistan and a coined a favorite Marine motto in the process: “No better friend, no worse enemy.”
"...Nathaniel Fick, who served under Mattis as a young officer in both Iraq and Afghanistan, calls him “a Marine’s Marine. He’s a warfighter.” When he got tapped for his current position in charge of the military’s Joint Forces Command, a Marine Corps Times profile put him in the Corps’ pantheon, calling him “a leader with almost mythical, rock-star status like Chesty Puller and Al Gray.” Check the #Mattisisms hashtag on twitter.
Congrats General Mattis!
Pic - Mad Dog says "Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet."
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Oh - it's true bay bee! The cat so cold as ice he be nom d'guerr'd twice is Fatah's Palestine West Bank Daddy Abu Mazen/M'moud Abbas.
Ruling avec fiat every since Comrade Papa Arafat made the haj to the perfumed gardens of paradise (close to Teufel Hunden BDay no less), Mazen/Abbas has certainly played a key role in the 'forever quest' for something something Palestine.
A key role in abdicating a leadership role is not much of a key to anything. As best understood, The PA Prez freaked when Little Satan Cast Lead (by the bucket load!) in the Strip and pretty much ground HAMAS' Izzy Deen al K'Ssam's hapless rocketeers to dust in an avalanche of Little and Great Satan munitions (supplied at whole sale prices) and refused the hot tongue kisses of the 'Proximity talks"
Thanks to Iran's influ with HAMAS, that wicked Little Satan building apartment buildings and Mazen/Abbas' lack of interest - the narrative of an ME Peace free ME has been in the hands of rocket rich rejectionists in Stripland and their rowdy foreign unconvincingly uninformed activist enablers.
And that's the rub!
The UN will never be able to deliver a Palestine:
Essentially, it doesn't really matter what Belgium, Turkey, Iran or Botswanna believe, desire or think about future Palestine.
It only matters what Great Satan believes! She alone has the cash, a fully crunk hopped up military killing machine sweetly loitering about the ME in various Arab nation states.
It's time for the Abu Mazen/M'moud Abbas Great Satan tour 2010!
"...Abbas needs to engage the American public directly. He needs to define his core message, which is simple: the Palestinian Authority supports the creation of two states, a land-for-land swap, the sharing of east Jerusalem and wants Israel to step up to the plate and recognize its role in the Palestinian refugee tragedy.
Tip to the road manager - scratch that last item from the set list - unless it's a throw away for comic relief - everyone knows the 'refugee' prob is entirely self inflicted
"...Abbas should hire a high powered public relations firm and stop pandering to the fanatics in the Arab world through the Arabic language media – a pandering that often undermines Palestinian rights because of contradictory pronouncements that confuse rather than enlighten public opinion, including in Israel.
"..And, more importantly, Abbas should recognize that the battle is not in the Gaza Strip but in the mind-set of the American public, where the future of Palestine, two states and Middle East peace will be decided.
Palestine's doubling dealing raison d'retarde' PR so far has totally sucked -selling one narative in 'Merican talk and a far diff version in Arabic - has been as effective as challenging M1 panzers with ancient T55's.
"...The problem with Abbas is most of what he does is conveyed to the world through the Arabic-language media, which has little or no impact on the American public. They’re not reading the Arabic media for positive news and only scour through the Arab world media to find evidence of terrorism and anti-American hatred.
"...There's plenty of that to be found"
The opening act for the Tour could be that catchy kids bop about bleeding to death for Palestine. Though the really creepy bit is that so gay looking guy crooning over the middle 8 - a total buzzkill - best hire some hot chicks for that.
Pic "Everything Does Not Suck..."