Saturday, June 30, 2012

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse. 

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.


Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! And don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter

Friday, June 29, 2012

Beyond Worst Case Analysis


Soooo,  aside from the sad, played happy talk about deterrence, containment and a crazy assetted peice thinking out loud how awesome a new clear Preacher Command could be for regional stability (yeah - it's pretty dang dumb) - the cool kids at Washington Institute deliver a really hot! PDFing about Perisa's response to a naughty Little Satan enrichment interruptus panty raid on Iran's tender, sensitive portions.

Most cats allus go on about how cause Preacher Command would act out in rage and retaliate, the old tried and true asymmetrical, terrorism, missile attacks, naval combat, and closing the Strait of Hormuz. 

8 possible acts are thought out loud about like  
1. Terrorist attacks on Little and Great Satan targets. Likely, but causing limited destruction.

2. Kidnapping of American citizens, especially in Iraq. Likely, but limited in impact, as in the 1980s in Lebanon.

3. Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Very likely, especially via proxies, but causing limited destruction.

4. Missile strikes on Little Satan. Likely: a few missiles from Iran getting through Israeli defenses, leading to casualties likely in the low hundreds; missiles from Hezbollah limited in number due to domestic Lebanese considerations. Unlikely: Hamas getting involved, having distanced itself from Tehran; the Syrian government interfering, since it is battling for its life against an ever-stronger opposition army and possibly the Turkish armed forces. Overall, missile attacks are unlikely to do devastating damage.

5. Attacks on neighboring states. Likely: especially using terrorist proxies, for the sake of deniability. Unlikely: missile strikes, for Tehran does not want to make more enemies.

6. Clashes with the American Navy. Likely, but, given the balance of power, doing limited damage.

7. Covertly mining the Strait of Hormuz. Likely, causing a run-up in energy prices.

8. Attempted closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Unlikely: difficult to achieve and potentially too damaging to Iranian interests, because the country needs the strait for commerce.

All in all a  
"high-risk endeavor carrying a potential for escalation in the Levant or the Gulf . . . would not be the apocalyptic event some foresee.”

Makes the case that the dangers of hitting Persia where it hurts falls far short of the dangers of a new clear Preacher Command under the control of her New Clear Praetorians in the Revolutionary Guards 


Pic - "Panty Raid"

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Naval Quantity And Quality

GsGf"s Naval Chicanery Advisor (Oh! He got game bay bee!!) delivers a Trafalgar sized Jutlandesque bit about how mean history is to sea power cats that invent fudge factors – oh snap tech, tactical mastery, indomitable élan – to explain away numerical shortfalls. How many ya got doesn't really matter anymore!

As naval technology gallops on, can fleets execute the same missions with fewer assets?
Officials like U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Undersecretary of the Navy Robert Work point to scientific and technical advances that supposedly render numbers of ships and aircraft less meaningful than in bygone decades. Unmanned reconnaissance aircraft able to detect, classify, and track hostile contacts across wide sea areas and feed targeting information to U.S. Navy task forces represent one such innovation. Sea-service leaders also point out that warships now entering service are far more technologically advanced than the ones they replace.

As best understood - having bunches of warcrafting craft don't mean so much anymore that quantity no longer has much quality
Yet there’s an otherworldly feel to such claims. It’s certainly true that each new generation of ships, warplanes, sensors, and weaponry is far more capable in an absolute sense than the generations that went before. True, but not especially meaningful.


One of today’s Arleigh Burke-class Aegis destroyers, for example, would surely outclass an Aegis cruiser from the early 1980s, when that combined radar/fire-control system first went to sea on board USS Ticonderoga.


So what?


In most respects the Ticonderoga vastly outmatched its ancestors from Adm. Chester Nimitz’s Pacific Fleet, or from Adm. George Dewey’s flotilla at Manila Bay. Such comparisons tell us little about our prospects in battle today. We build against present-day competitors, not our Cold War, World War II, or Spanish-American War selves.


Combat power is a relative thing, then, not an absolute one. We may be more capable. So are our competitors.


The only standard that matters is how well ships, aircraft, and weaponry perform against today’s adversaries in today’s tactical setting – not on battlegrounds of yore. As prospective antagonists mount fiercer, more sophisticated defenses of offshore seas and skies, navies must keep improving just to keep pace with the competition. By that unforgiving standard, it’s far from clear that American men-of-war have vaulted past their predecessors.


Furthermore, the fleet’s complexion is changing. In some cases, the Navy is replacing retired vessels not with like vessels of new design but with lesser – and less capable – ship types. Speaking at the 2012 Shangri-La Dialogue last month, Secretary Panetta announced that the Navy will take delivery of forty new warships in the coming years. That sounds impressive. But what kinds of hulls comprise that forty? The single-mission Littoral Combat Ships (LCS), for example, aren’t descendants of the multi-mission Oliver Hazard Perry frigates they replace. The Perrys were built to perform picket duty with the battle fleet, fending off aerial, surface, and subsurface threats. The lightly armed LCS has important diplomatic and maritime-security uses. It is no frigate.


This uneven shipbuilding program will dilute the fleet’s aggregate combat power at a time when the threat environment has grown increasingly stressful – witness the proliferation of air-independent diesel submarines, stealthy missile craft, antiship cruise and ballistic missiles, and other hardware useful for disputing U.S. access to “contested zones” around the world. Secretary Work’s boast that the low-end LCS will “kick [the] asses” of foes it encounters may be true. But it misleads. It’s one thing to apply a boot to the posterior of a pirate in a skiff, quite another to enter the lists against the likes of China’s People’s Liberation Army. The LCS is eminently qualified to do the former, but ill-suited to the latter.


Sea power is an interactive business in which prospective opponents may attempt to veto U.S. actions, and increasingly possess the wherewithal to make their veto stick. Whether the United States can accomplish the same globe-spanning goals it has pursued for decades with fewer assets is doubtful. A mismatch among policy, strategy, and forces looms.


Carl von Clausewitz advises statesmen and commanders to undertake campaigns in “secondary” theaters only if the likely gains are “exceptionally” promising, the enterprise contributes to success in the principal theater, and it does not imperil efforts in the principal theater. Only “decisive superiority” in the main theater justifies secondary efforts. Abiding by this formula requires setting priorities – namely, determining which zones on the map are critical and which are not. The corollary is that a nation should wind down military commitments in nonessential theaters in order to concentrate resources where needed most.


But declaring that some regions or missions are more important than others evidently demands that global powers make a hard mental leap. Few and far between are leaders like Adm. Jacky Fisher, the British first sea lord who brought home – and mostly scrapped – the Royal Navy’s detached squadrons of gunboats and light combatants a century ago. Fisher’s decision freed up resources and manpower in the Far East and North America that the navy sorely needed to gird itself for its arms race with Imperial Germany. Staying ahead of the German High Seas Fleet, which threatened the British Isles, constituted the greater priority by far.

Fin de siècle Britain pivoted homeward, largely evacuating U.S. and Asian waters and trusting to local powers to guard its interests there. It accepted risk while unloading foreign commitments. By contrast, I could retire comfortably tomorrow if I had a dollar for every time in recent weeks I’ve heard a U.S. official or pundit insist that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s metaphor of a “pivot” to Asia had to be discarded because it implied that America was turning its back on regions outside Asia. Hence the switch to the more neutral, less evocative term “rebalance.” But it’s worth rediscovering Clausewitz’s remorseless logic and Fisher’s clear vision and pugnacity. Washington ought to reacquaint itself with setting priorities.


The interwar Imperial Japanese Navy had boundless faith in Japanese seafarers’ resolve and tactical virtuosity. Commanders talked themselves into believing that these intangibles would negate superior U.S. Navy numbers. Their navy now litters the bottom of the Pacific – in large part because Rosie the Riveter and her comrades turned out warships and merchantmen like sausages during World War II, overwhelming Japan with insurmountable numbers. Quantity does matter. Let’s not succumb to the sort of thinking that beguiled Tokyo in those fateful years.

Pic - "Nations that fail the sea power quiz also fail the longevity quiz!"

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Insulted Sultan

Türk Kara Kuvvetleri!! 

 Ahhh you know it is so!

Conflict is a nasty thang - and when she be fully crunk - ain"t no telling Magellan - where all it could spread ya"ll or conflagrate next bay bee!!

Like the murderfields of ye olde
Suriya al- Kubra.

Unleashing those shiny new air defense systems Commonwealth Russia gave up to Bashar"s illegit Allawicious regime - the Syrians literally blew an ancient unarmed combat recce jet right out of the air. 

The Ottomans - on paper anywrought - appear to possess an awesome military.  She's got the world's very first lady grrl bomber pilot, the 2nd most biggest Army in all of NATO, a generously ruthless conscription policy (zero tolerance for conscientious objectifiers - tho conscript time is anywhere from 15 months to 3 years), a history of invading her neighbors and doing the illegal occupation thingy, cruelly inventing new words like 'genocide' and hostessing new clear armed bomber jets.

Her army fields 9 Army Corps, 1 Inf Div, 2 Mechanized Inf Divs, 1 Panzer Division,  11 Infantry / Motorized Infantry Brigades, 16 Mechanized Infantry Brigades, 9 Panzer Brigades, 5 Para-Commando Brigades. Her air force can, at least on paper, deliver a world of hurt with a semi sorta strategic reach and her navy often threatens to intervene on behalf of rowdy foreign violently determined blockade busters.

 Anyone trekking to Turkey looking for trouble would certainly find it!

Or would they? 

Face it - thus far - the Ottomans are only able to use their military to beat up cats hot for sump sump greater Kurdistan. The Ottomans seem unable to project power in a regional way like a regional hegemon should and could - despite constant hellos that the Ottomans are a force to be reckoned with. They never helped poor Lebanon, couldn"t do a thing about Libya and thus far only indulge in non profit jawflapping about 'safe zones" or "humanitarian interventions" in Syria.

Not unlike those amazingly impotent Arab League militaries that couldn"t fight a set piece battle or intervene to halt  unacceptable behaviour if the entire League depended on it.

Only now - the Ottomans have a casus beli to do something.

Maybe.  

By shooting down the Turkish fighter jet, it is argued, Damascus aimed to take advantage of the current situation in which Syrian tyranny in enjoying a stalemate between regional and global powers, to send a message to political and armed opposition by questioning Turkey’s capability. The move is a demonstration of defiance toward Ottomanic involvement in the Syrian turmoil, and in the larger context, Turkey’s regional leadership ambitions. Besides, it is obvious that Damascus would have not been that audacious if the target was a Little Satan fighter jet.
A clash between Turkey and Syria is tantamount to a clash between the normative idealism of Ankara’s ambitions and the pragmatic realism of the Baathist dictatorship’s survival strategy. However, in the Middle East, a state which responds to military aggression with rhetoric and condemnation cannot claim regional leadership.


It is a tough environment with constant low-intensity conflicts, and conventional wars take place nearly in every decade. Put simply, if Assad now does not feel as worried as he would if his air defenses had downed a British or an Israeli warplane, or an American one, Turkey’s regional leadership ambitions are tantamount to empty talk.


For instance, in 1998, during the expulsion of Abdullah Ocalan, the currently imprisoned leader of PKK terrorist organization, Hafez Assad stepped back by giving way to Turkish gunboat diplomacy. However, Iran’s mounting political-military profile and Russia’s rise under Putin now constitute a different security environment than the one that existed in the 1990s.


Nevertheless, the recent escalation might be a game-changer regarding the possible trajectory of Turkish- Syrian tensions. The incident may dramatically shift Turkish public opinion, which currently opposes war with Syria. The pilots are still missing; if they were killed, the traditional religious-nationalistic martyrdom cult of the Turkish culture would garner support of masses demanding Assad be payed back.
 

Although mainstream Turkish media favors muddle-through efforts, as it generally does, there is no middle course for Ankara in the final analysis. Therefore, in the following weeks we may either witness a military intervention against Damascus, which would be spearheaded by Turkey and may trigger a regional clash, or the downfall of Turkey’s neo-Ottomanist ambitions along with Ankara’s return to the classic isolationist policy. 

After all - who all would bow before a sultan who tolerates such an insult?

Pic - "No game player" 





Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Overreach

Once again, the uberlicious arm candy fun time grrl grasped yet another cool hot desirable cat in her web of smashing fashion, a somewhat some times functioning intellect, killer smile and a bod built like an M1 panzer.

Her self destructive critical free thinking habitry tho soon came to fore. As best understood the meme of "guys have feelings too - but like - who cares!" trashed yet another op for her to score a real keeper - financially well off, cool rides, gallant, merciful, fun, hot! and fun to be with.  Vaporized faster than RAF did Dresden.  


She overreached at the precise moment she maybe sorta shoulda restrained

 Kinda unthinkable if one thinks of it.

Consider the pro bellum paradox: Great Satan, alone - l"hyperuissant - the only one of her kind - unique in anything fun or lethal, should by design actually be able to handle herself awesomely in any sitch fun or lethal, nicht wahr?

Whale, see....

Great Satan has repeatedly turned her initial military success into costly defeats or quagmires
On October 1, 1950, the forces of coalition, acting under the authority of a UN resolution, drove the forces of the Korean People’s Army across the 38th parallel and back into North Korea. It was the culmination of a string of stunning military victories.


From the surprise North Korean invasion in June, Great Satan and her posse of democrazies had taken just 120 days to mount an amphibious landing at Inchon, break out from defensive lines around Pusan and drive the KPA into headlong retreat.

With the North Korean forces routed, the United States was in a position to dictate the terms of peace. Instead (with Russia absent) the United States secured a UN resolution demanding the reunification of Korea. By October 19, U.S. forces had occupied Pyongyang (the first and almost certainly the only time the United States captured a communist capital). Not satisfied with this, General Douglas Macarthur pushed on rapidly. By the end of October, his forces were close to the Yalu River, marking the border with China.

Although China had repeatedly threatened to intervene in the war, the first Chinese attack took Macarthur completely by surprise. The result was a bloody and humiliating retreat, ending in the loss, for the second time, of Seoul. Three years and millions of deaths later, the active phase of the war ended with the restoration of the territorial status quo ante.


Interventions in Lebanon and Somalia also fit the pattern. In Lebanon, a U.S.-led Multinational Force (MNF) was initially authorized to oversee PLO withdrawal from Beirut, a task accomplished within a couple of weeks. Following the Sabra and Shatila massacres, however, the MNF was sent in again, this time without a clearly defined goal. The mission ended in disaster when the MNF barracks was hit by a truck bomb, killing over two hundred U.S. and French troops. 

 In Somalia, what was initially a successful famine-relief mission (Operation Restore Hope) was converted to a nation-building exercise (Operation Continue Hope). It was abandoned after the “Black Hawk Down” incident in Mogadishu. Leaving aside the absence of an initial victory, Vietnam fits the pattern as well.

What accounts for this pattern? In part, it reflects the maxim, “To a man who has only a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.” The U.S. military has the capacity to defeat any conventional military force that might oppose it, with remarkable ease. The idea of such easy victories leads to assumptions that the military must be ideally suited to any task assigned to it, from overseas nation building to domestic disaster relief.

Thus, the very invincibility of the military creates its own problems. With the exception of the deluded Saddam Hussein, no opposing army has been willing to take on the United States in a conventional war since Korea. As a result, proposed military actions almost never satisfy the stringent requirements of the Powell doctrine. As Madeleine Albright famously put it, "What are you saving this superb military for, Colin, if we can't use it?” This concept gives U.S. policy makers a strong incentive to find uses for their resources.

Another contributing factor, paradoxically, is that Americans, like most citizens of prosperous and democratic countries, are generally not enthusiastic about war as a policy. The use of military force needs a strong justification to overcome this instinctive opposition, and this typically means statements of lofty goals. When it turns out that these goals are unachievable, they can’t be abandoned without an admission that the original decision to go to war was based on mistaken premises. So ending a failed war typically requires the departure of the administration that started it.

Can anything be done to break out of this pattern of overreach? At present, the signs are not hopeful. Support for large-scale armed intervention has ebbed somewhat, but it has been replaced by an equally naive enthusiasm for drone warfare directed at an ever-expanding list of enemies (along with unfortunate bystanders and victims of mistaken identity). The realization that military power is a vital tool but one with a very limited range of effective uses will be a long time coming.

Pic - "We must reorganize our military and intelligence structures to find and kill terrorists, while keeping great power to protect from any nuclear threat."

Monday, June 25, 2012

The Outreach Year 3

Zooming out of the electile dysfunction gripping the mommieland of all Araby, may help to time travel back to 44's famous ME tour.

44 did the first television interview of his presidency to the Al Arabiya news channel six days after his inauguration, and sent a Persian New Year video address to the people of Iran a few months later.  The high water mark of his stated quest to rehab Great Satan"s rep rep reputation occurred in Cairo, in a speech titled “A New Beginning.”


A scant 3 years ago, 44 was like all apolgies for past sins (real and imagined) against m"Hammedist world (like colonialism) and heralded the religion’s historical “tolerance and racial equality.” 

To stay on message, 44avoided mentioning some of the more uncomfortable realities—that our most significant terrorist threat is from those using m"Hammedism as a shield, as well as the gender discrimination women face, in the world capitol of the world’s horrific most egregious and systematic abuses of human rights.


Didn"t seem to help very much!

76 percent of Egyptians would like to make him a one-termer. Majorities in Pakistan, Lebanon, and Jordan don’t want to see 44 re-elected, either. “Respondents in predominantly m"Hammedists countries continue to have a low opinion of 44, and the American leader’s ratings have slipped significantly since 2009 in the five countries where trends are available, including a 13 percentage-point poll drop in Egypt,” according to Pew. “Opinion is generally against 44 in most of the countries surveyed.”  

Why cause?

Because! 
In Cairo, 44 promised a relationship with uh, certain elements and their world built on “mutual interest and mutual respect.” He avoided any strong calls for the democratic movements that would sweep the region two years later, leaving dissidents feeling like they were standing alone. “What touched on democracy and human rights in the speech was far less than we wanted,” said Ayman Nour, a prominent Egyptian political prisoner, after the remarks.


44 then missed a series of opportunities to be on the right side of history.   First, in real time, he didn’t lend support for democratic dissidents in Iran in 2009, where today’s nuclear endgame might be quite different if he did so. His policy of non-interference left Tehran’s leadership empowered to torture and imprison leaders of the Green movement and closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon. 44 was behind the eight ball on Egypt, largely silent on the Saudi crackdown on Bahrain, and appears at a loss about who to back in Syria. 
Although he did choose to bomb Libya and oust Gaddafi—a despot, but one who had renounced his nuclear program to avoid Saddam Hussein’s fate—support on the Arab Street was fleeting because of 44"s inconsistent policy of ousting dictators who serve no American interest, but tolerating despotic royals in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

The world has wised up to the harsh reality of 44’s foreign affairs leadership. The Nobel laureate is all words and no deeds

Pic - "Tactics Over Strategy"

Saturday, June 23, 2012

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse. 

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.


Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

    See you next week! And don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter

    Friday, June 22, 2012

    Barbarossa Day!!

    "The entire World will hold it's breath!"

    Unternehmen Barbarossa's 71st Anniversary.

    Just after 0300 hours local time - a 3 mile wide strip of territory stretching the length of eastern Europe from Baltic Sea to the Carpathian Mountains erupted in a torrent of fire and flying steel as Luftwaffe aircraft, Werhmacht artillerie und panzers blasted across the Soviet frontier. In the violence of her initial collision, the immensity and feriocity of her subsequent development, and her prolifigacy of destruction of human life and resources - Operation Barbarossa - the Deutschland - Russian conflict - transcended anything ever before - or since - in the human experience.

    Flush with fast, relatively easy victories over Western Europa - NSDAP time Deutschland flung three ginourmous Armee Gruppen at Russia in a crazy scheme to knock out the Collectivist armies forcing Mockba to accept an uneven uneasy piece and destroy bolshvikism forever.

    The 1st 6 months saw amazing feats of Teutonic arms, vast panzer pincers, desperate pockets of Soviets fought to annihilation or capture (often the same thing) and by Pearl Harbor Day the naughty Wehrmacht was fighting in Moscow's suburbs.

    The Moscow Battle - Operation Typhoon was the literally chilling climax of Barbarossa's blitzkrieg portion. Ferocious defense of the the capitol city by freshly released Siberian Reserves (Russia learned Nippon wouldn't be attacking their  far east anytime soon) ended any hap hap happy tho'ts of a 'lightning campaign' in Russia.

    Operation Barbarossa ground on for three and a half years more the site of some of the largest battles, deadliest atrocities, highest casualties, and most horrific conditions for Soviets and Germans alike - massively complex military ops like Stalingrad, Zitadelle and Bagration - until 3rd Reich died in an orgy of blood and flame and shaped the modern world and lingers with us still: NATO, Russia's near paranoia with her Near Abroad and fear of an awakened, reunified, riled up Germany. 

    Pic - "Verlonne Siege"

    Thursday, June 21, 2012

    Failed States 2012

    What actually is a state? What makes it totally rock? What makes it totally suck? What makes a Failed State? 
    Most countries that fall apart do so not with a bang but with a whimper. They fail not in an explosion of war and violence but by being utterly unable to take advantage of their society's huge potential for growth, condemning their citizens to a lifetime of poverty. This type of slow, grinding failure leaves many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America with living standards far, far below those in the West.  

    Lack of property rights, Forced Labor, wealth stealing despots are just a few of the thangs FoPoOnline brings up and it helps to mention  
    States don't fail overnight. The seeds of of their destruction are sown deep within their political institutions. 

    Actually the weed seeds are planted deep within their lack of politcal institutions 
     What's tragic is that this failure is by design. These states collapse because they are ruled by what we call "extractive" economic institutions, which destroy incentives, discourage innovation, and sap the talent of their citizens by creating a tilted playing field and robbing them of opportunities. These institutions are not in place by mistake but on purpose. They're there for the benefit of elites who gain much from the extraction -- whether in the form of valuable minerals, forced labor, or protected monopolies -- at the expense of society.

    Tolerant, egalitarian Societies with high literacy rates, a military under civie control, a penchant for periodic, transparent elections, a free uncensored press, an independent judiciary under elected Gov oversight and a Nat"l Treasury under public scrutiny are the best bet.


    Kinda makes ya wonder why cause Free World even puts up with allowing despots to roam about



    Pic - "And then there's the Most Dangerous Country in the World!"






    Wednesday, June 20, 2012

    Biggest Joint Wargames in Middle East!!

    Autocrazies Unite!!


    Hot on the heels of Royal Navy"s recent stop of Commonwealth's attack chopper totin" MV Alaed comes news that Syria, Iran Commonwealth Russia and Collectivist China will be hooking up to act out wargames in Syria's beach front property!!
    According to informed sources, 90,000 forces from the four countries will take part in the land and sea wargames due to be held in Syria.

    Ground, air and sea forces as well as air defense and missile units of the four countries will take part in the exercises.


    Sources also said that Egypt has acceded to grant passage to 12 Chinese warships to sail through the Suez Canal, adding that the military convoy is due to dock at the Syrian harbors in the next two weeks.


    Russian atomic submarines and warships, aircraft carriers and mine-clearing destroyers as well as Iranian battleships and submarines will also arrive in Syria at around the same date.


    Syria plans to test its coast-to-sea and air defense missiles in the wargames.


    A sum of 400 warplanes and 1,000 tanks will also be used in the exercises.


    A Syrian official, who asked to remain anonymous, had informed two weeks ago that the drills would be conducted in Syria soon.


    Unofficial sources also said the four countries are now busy with taking swift preparatory measures for these biggest-ever wargames in the Middle-East. 

    Pic - "Thou shalt ascend and come like a storm, thou shalt be like a cloud to cover the land, thou, and all thy bands, and many people with thee." 

    Tuesday, June 19, 2012

    Aegypt"s Next Revolution

    Khalifah!

    Araby"s mommieland - the horrific girl hatin, book burning Pyramidland has really had the chiz offa hook bay bee!!

     Egypt"s Supreme Military Command (truly a misnomer - despite having their very own M1 Panzer Factory, Egypt is a rapidly computerizing Police State that seems to only be able to brutally enforce Writ of State on hoochies, girls and free thinking fun lovers - that cannot seem to grip a grip on things regionally - like keeping Sinai free of rocket rich terrorists, putting paid to unacceptable behaviour in Khartoum a decade back or even Lib Lib Libya last spring - enough to make ya weep, nicht wahr?).

    Since the High Court LOL"d the idea of a fresh new Ikwhanese Parliament and dissolved power right back to the Military - Aegyot"s Next Revolution is only a shot away.

    "SCAF’s decision to dissolve the parliament is null and void because it is not based on any constitutional legitimacy, principle or procedure."

     Sooo - is Great Satan is left in the unenviable position of cheering on 7th Century thinking or hooking up with last millennium"s uncool Realpolitikisch Realism and saying "Yay!! Military Dictatorship!" ? 
    "So does it make sense for America's government to take up the doctrine of “neo-conservative” naivete and demand a Brotherhood victory over the army in Egypt? A proper American government would — and I apologize for the “amoral” requirements of realpolitik — secretly be backing the military to keep the Brotherhood out of power."
    "What circumstances are more appropriate for sending arms and money? When the Ikwahn dominates a parliament, the presidency, has written a constitution mandating Sharia law, and follows a policy of death to Great and Little Satan? Who are you going to cheer for if m"Hammedists rebel against the regime?"
    And zzzzzzzz.

    That type of pitiful thinking is funnily 2 dimensional with unfunny consequences. As one Senatorial cat LOL"D  
     “I would not want to see Great Satan write checks for contracts with Egypt’s military under the present uncertain circumstances.” 

    While it is true that the cool kids in Neoconic Circle are some what split in regards to cheering on future and au courant protesters or suddenly thinking the ancient corrupt cult of stability is suddenly hip, hot and all together with it - this is actually a thingamajig about 'style over substance"

    Plus, a Caliphate by design would attempt to time travel way back to when m"Hammedism was superior to the wicked women worshipping West:
    "That goal is impossible to achieve. It is inconceivable in this modern world that a whole country could wall itself off from modernity, even if the majority wanted to. Could the great theocracy that al Qaeda and others hope to erect ever completely block out the sights and sounds of the rest of the world, and thereby shield their people from the temptations of modernity? The mullahs have not even succeeded in doing that in Iran. The project is fantastic"
    Aside from Clashing Smashing caliphates - any caliphate would be doomed to a struggle they couldn't win - the extreme goals hotly desired by even a semi extreme regime can never be satiated simply because Great Satan, Europa, Commonwealth Russia, China etc, etc are just not capable of retreating as fast and far as a caliphate would require.

    Great Satan should ideally announce a temp suspension of military aid (billions per annum)  and launch a high profile fact finding commission about inadvertently funding V Checks (or the ever popular Pantie Police) which seem more like aggressive sex attacks than any sane vetting procedures. 

    Also couldn't hurt to wonder out loud why Egypt's mighty mighty military - complete with an M1 panzer factory - cannot for whatever reasons put it to a real use like oh - say, maintaining Writ of State over Sinai or getting hot for Libya, Darfur, Somalia, Sudan or Syria.

    Foreign Peace Mongers could flood and floodlight Aegypt with tons of blue ribboned fact finding commissions - sanctioned by the UN - natch. Sir Elton and Lady Gaga could spearhead a tolerance drive - publicly lamenting the lack of strip clubs, casinos and gay bars. 

    Uncle Tony, 42 and 43 could wonder aloud why cause Aegypt is great at making sure no censor free transmissions are allowed in, yet home grown Xians are tormented to the point of exile - or even extinction

    See, Ploislam kinda semi totally advocates continuing to torment girls and threaten chiz 'bout re estabbing the ancient nat"listic dream of ancient Caliphating Preacher Command 
    "Our capital won't be Mecca or Medina, but J"lem, millions of shahids will march on the city! The whole world should know - and we say it clearly - our goal is J"lem, we shall pray in J"lem, and if not - we shall die as martyrs on its ruins."  

    And therein lies the silver lining in the "kini waxin"

    Never, ever back a dictatorship. If Persia, Hiz"B"allah and the Strip fail to impress on Aegypt that Preachers can preach ok, yet they totally suck at any Statecraft that actually makes the nation/state (of sorts) a more better place - then it could and should be considered a learnable moment.  No one is hoping Pyramidland goes off on a crazy assetted trip like Iran or the Strip did.

    Yet maybe it would cure a few misconceptions and fire up some critical thinking if Polislam sucks out loud til the next electile dysfunctioneering Election time

    Since Aegypt rocks the world as a world leader only in collecting Foreign Aid and Black Veil Brides Complexes -   we get it - Slamists don't like liberal democrazy, free thinking, free press, girls gone wild, emo/goth/hip hop, cool hair dos (and a few hair don'ts), Little Satan, Great Satan's policies around the globe, fashions au courant, fun or free choice and amazingly seem to equate anything nonm"Hammedist as being an attack on m"hammedism. Tolerance ain't in their vocab. And they all seem soooo hot for something something Sharia Law

    Break out the ouija board binocs for an upclose zoom in on a potential caliphate Pyramidland style

    Ebberdobby knows,  that sec sec secular Nat"lism - like Nasser, Comrade Poppa Arafat or old man Assad has been dissed by the M"Sk as preachers seek to increase their power an influ with their fav answer - more "Slamim shiz. Yet, replacing one wordly despotry for a holy one is hardly gon fix anything!!

    Thinking out loud about the worst a mullahocrazy provides would practically guarantee another revolution. PO'ing the world with terrorism, shutting down the Suez, trying to time travel back to the 7th century would make the regime as illegit as the military rule it replaced. Sans foreign aid (a hard line gov would lose it overnight) a blizzard of sanctions would ensure the entire sorry mess would collapse - thus again - like Iran and the Strip - prove preachers may be great at preaching but they totally suck at statecraft

    How long could a supercaliphatedocious regime hang on in a nation state about to bust with kids without devouring their young?  


    After all, if Aegypt were to get all Ikwhan and actually attack a democratic member of UN - the result would most likely be very fast, very exciting and very lethal to yet another Arab gov that provides zero services, benefits, and future to her own peeps - just more torment, lost wars and lost turf 

    Pic - "Rise Up! And Celebrate Life - you're not alone in our ritual"  

    Especial thanks to Marc Reul Geracht, Josh Muravchek and Andy Biersack 

    Monday, June 18, 2012

    Yemenizer

    Zooming in from the more bigger pic of leaks and a St Augustine/ Thomas Aquinas quoting Cat in Chief that can kill ya with one hand while expounding "Just War"chiz with P4, Uncle Leon and 4 Star Generals with the other, a few things happen to uncork themselves.


    1st off - If there is a list of terrorists to be killed with drone strikes on the soil of a country where we’re not officially at war, shouldn’t it be 44 who decides to pull the trigger? For such an extraordinary occasion, ripe with moral issues and potential diplomatic consequences, it is properly 44’s gig, not the CIA director’s or the nearest four-star general’s.

    And does that gig xlate into morebiggerment making of Great Satan"s Excellent Adventures in Yemen?

    44 has launched an estimated 28 drone strikes and 13 air strikes in Yemen. By contrast, 43 only launched one drone attack in Yemen
    Previously, the administration only allowed the U.S. Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and the CIA to launch drone attacks in Yemen against top-level militants whose names appeared on secret JSOC and CIA target lists and whose locations could be confirmed.


    These broadened rules of engagement will likely result in the further acceleration of U.S. intelligence and military operations in Yemen, a chaotic, weak state embroiled in several overlapping civil wars.


    As of June 6, drone strikes and airstrikes had killed an estimated 531 to 779 people in Yemen, 509 to 713 of whom were identified in media reports as militants, according to the New America Foundation's data. Of these deaths, 99% occurred during Obama's presidency.


    The civilian casualty rate from these strikes is estimated to be between 4% and 8.5%, roughly comparable with the civilian casualty rate from the U.S. drone program in Pakistan, which averaged 5.5% in 2011, according to New America Foundation data. The CIA inaugurated the lethal drone program in Yemen on November 3, 2002, with a Hellfire missile launched from a Predator drone at a vehicle in the province of Maarib, about 100 miles east of the capital city of Sanaa.


    The attack killed al Qaeda's top operative in Yemen, Qaed Salim Sinan al-Harethi, who was also a suspect in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole off the Yemeni coast. With al-Harethi in that car were five other militants, all of whom were killed, including U.S. citizen Kamal Derwish. His was the first reported American death to result from the CIA's drone campaign.


    After the 2002 U.S. drone strike, there was no reported U.S. airstrikes or drone attacks in Yemen until December 2009, when a sustained campaign of attacks began.


    That change came about because al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has over the past three years attempted a number of terrorist attacks against the United States, launching it from relative obscurity to the top of the U.S. government's list of national security threats.


    In a statement posted on jihadist websites in December 28, 2009, AQAP claimed responsibility for the attempted "underwear bomb" attack on a Detroit-bound passenger airliner three days earlier. And in November 2010, the group claimed responsibility for a plot to send two packages containing bombs hidden in printer cartridges to two Chicago synagogues. The packages were discovered in the United Kingdom and Dubai after Saudi officials provided a tip about the plot.


    In July 2011, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said the United States was "within reach of strategically defeating al Qaeda," and that he believed of all al Qaeda affiliates, AQAP posed the greatest threat to the U.S. homeland.


    Counting drone attacks and airstrikes in Yemen is complicated because it has often been unclear whether attacks were launched from drones or from fighter jets, and villagers regularly provide conflicting accounts of the kinds of aircraft used in these attacks.


    To make data collection on these strikes even more difficult, diplomatic cables released by the transparency watchdog site WikiLeaks revealed that the Yemeni government has sometimes taken credit for airstrikes that were in fact being carried out by the United States.


    According to one cable, then-Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told P4 in January 2010, "We'll continue saying the bombs are ours, not yours," after which Deputy Prime Minister Rashad al-Alimi joked that he had just "lied" to the Yemeni Parliament about the American role in such strikes.


    During 44"s trip, drones have killed at least 16 key al Qaeda cats in Yemen, including the Yemeni-American cleric Anwar al-Awlaki on September 30, 2011, and Fahd al-Quso who was suspected of involvement in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.


    While the covert drone war is claiming a fast-rising toll, it's not clear it is significantly weakening AQAP. Gregory D. Johnsen, a leading expert on Yemen at Princeton University, points out that al Qaeda's Yemeni affiliate has grown in size during the past three years from around 200 to 300 militants to more than 1,000 fighters and "controls significant portions of territory in southern Yemen. In parts of Abyan and Shabwa provinces, the organization controls towns in which it has established its own police departments and court systems. It is providing water, electricity and services to these towns. In short, AQAP now sees itself as the de facto government in the areas under its control."


    Since the longtime Yemeni strongman Saleh stepped down in February, the American drone strikes and airstrikes have increased. In just three months, Great Satan launched an estimated 20 strikes. By comparison, there were just 18 attacks in the previous two years. Johnsen asks: "What happens if this 'missile surge' doesn't work? What happens next? Does the Great Satan fire more and more missiles in the hopes that it will reach a tipping point?"

    Given 44's hot hookup w/ Drones Gone Wild! the answer to that quiz is prob "Yessir!!"



    Pic - "Because of the diverse conditions of humans, it happens that some acts are virtuous to some people, as appropriate and suitable to them, while the same acts are immoral for others, as inappropriate to them."

    Saturday, June 16, 2012

    WoW!!

    WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse. 

    Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.


    Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

    Non-Council Winners


    See you next week! And don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter

    Friday, June 15, 2012

    Shadow Expandingment

    AFRICOM!


    Great Satan expands her global hyperpuissance into Africa with tons of secret air bases, spy guys and those magical especial Op cats!
    About a dozen air bases have been established in Africa since 2007, according to a former senior U.S. commander involved in setting up the network. Most are small operations run out of secluded hangars at African military bases or civilian airports.

    The nature and extent of the missions, as well as many of the bases being used, have not been previously reported but are partially documented in public Defense Department contracts. The operations have intensified in recent months, part of a growing shadow war against al-Qaeda affiliates and other militant groups. The surveillance is overseen by U.S. Special Operations forces but relies heavily on private military contractors and support from African troops.

    Sweet!

    Plus -
    The establishment of the Africa missions also highlights the ways in which Special Operations forces are blurring the lines that govern the secret world of intelligence, moving aggressively into spheres once reserved for the CIA. The CIA has expanded its counterterrorism and intelligence-gathering operations in Africa, but its manpower and resources pale in comparison with those of the military.

    Pic - "Target Sets"

    Thursday, June 14, 2012

    Old Glory Day

    14 June is Old Glory Day. Proclaimed by Great Satan's only new clear regime changer, August 3rd, 1949, 33 signed an Act of Congress designating June 14th of each year as National Flag Day.

    "This famous name was coined by Captain William Driver, a shipmaster of Salem, Massachusetts, in 1831. As he was leaving on one of his many voyages aboard the brig CHARLES DOGGETT - and this one would climax with the rescue of the mutineers of the BOUNTY - some friends presented him with a beautiful flag of twenty four stars. As the banner opened to the ocean breeze for the first time, he exclaimed
    "Old Glory!"

    He retired to Nashville in 1837, taking his treasured flag from his sea days with him. By the time the Civil War erupted, most everyone in and around Nashville recognized Captain Driver's "Old Glory." When Tennesee seceded from the Union, Rebels were determined to destroy his flag, but repeated searches revealed no trace of the hated banner.

    Then on February 25th, 1862, Yankee forces captured Nashville and raised the American flag over the capital. It was a rather small ensign and immediately folks began asking Captain Driver if "Old Glory" still existed. Happy to have soldiers with him this time, Captain Driver went home and began ripping at the seams of his bedcover. As the stitches holding the quilt-top to the batting unraveled, the onlookers peered inside and saw the 24-starred original "Old Glory"!

    Captain Driver gently gathered up the flag and returned with the soldiers to the capitol. Though he was sixty years old, the Captain climbed up to the tower to replace the smaller banner with his beloved flag. The Sixth Ohio Regiment cheered and saluted - and later adopted the nickname "Old Glory" as their own, telling and re-telling the story of Captain Driver's devotion to the flag we honor yet today.

    Captain Driver's grave is located in the old Nashville City Cemetery, and is one of only three places authorized by act of Congress where the Flag of the United States may be flown 24 hours a day"

    Wednesday, June 13, 2012

    The Intervention Dilemma

    When should nation states get all bizzy body and like intervene militarily to stop atrocities in other nation states?

    Actually, an ancient quiz. 

    See, bout a 150 sump years ago - a coalition of the willing intervened in Syria to halt unacceptable behaviour and all the cool modern stuff like mission creep, bizarre theories of crafting more enemies than were truly needed, fragile partnerships and an illegit regime unable to impose Writ of State all were sweetly present  

    And the quiz is even more potent in bloody Syria au courant:

    The idea of a “responsibility to protect” (R2P) was adopted unanimously at the UN’s World Summit in 2005, but subsequent events showed that not all member states interpreted the resolution the same way. Russia has consistently argued that only Security Council resolutions, not General Assembly resolutions, are binding international law. Meanwhile, Russia has vetoed a Security Council resolution on Syria, and, somewhat ironically, Annan has been called back and enlisted in a so-far futile effort to stop the carnage there.


    Until last year, many observers regarded R2P as at best a pious hope or a noble failure. But in 2011, as Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi prepared to exterminate his opponents in Benghazi, the Security Council invoked R2P as the basis for a resolution authorizing NATO to use armed force in Libya. In Great Satan, 44 was careful to wait for resolutions by the Arab League and the Security Council, thereby avoiding the costs to American soft power that 43’s administration suffered when it intervened in Iraq in 2003. But Russia, China, and other countries felt that NATO exploited the resolution to engineer regime change, rather merely protecting citizens in Libya.


    In fact, R2P is more about struggles over political legitimacy and soft power than it is about hard international law. Some Western lawyers argue that it entails the responsibility to combat genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes under the various conventions of international humanitarian law. But Russia, China, and others are reluctant to provide a legal or political basis for actions such as what occurred in Libya.


    There are other reasons why R2P has not been a success in the Syrian case. Drawn from traditional “just war” theory, R2P rests not only on right intentions, but also on the existence of a reasonable prospect of success. Many observers highlight the important physical and military differences between Libya and Syria that would make Syrian no-fly zones or no-drive zones problematic. Some Syrians who oppose President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, pointing to Baghdad in 2005, argue that the one thing worse than a cruel dictator is a sectarian civil war.


    Such factors are symptomatic of larger problems with humanitarian interventions. For starters, motives are often mixed (Roosevelt, after all, was referring to Cuba). Moreover, we live in a world of diverse cultures, and we know very little about social engineering and how to build nations. When we cannot be sure how to improve the world, prudence becomes an important virtue, and hubristic visions can pose a grave danger. Foreign policy, like medicine, must be guided by the principle, “First, do no harm.”


    Prudence does not mean that nothing can be done in Syria. Other governments can continue to try to convince Russia that its interests are better served by getting rid of the current regime than by permitting the continued radicalization of his opponents. Tougher sanctions can continue to delegitimize the regime, and Turkey might be persuaded to take stronger steps against its neighbor.


    Moreover, prudence does not mean that humanitarian interventions will always fail. In some cases, even if motives are mixed, the prospects of success are reasonable, and the misery of a population can be relieved at modest expense. Military interventions in Sierra Leone, Liberia, East Timor, and Bosnia did not solve all problems, but they did improve the lives of the people there. Other interventions – for example, in Somalia – did not.


    Recent large-scale interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, though not primarily humanitarian, have eroded public support for military action. But we should recall Mark Twain’s story about his cat. After sitting on a hot stove, it would never sit on a hot stove again, but neither would it sit on a cold one.


    Interventions will continue to occur, though they are now more likely to be shorter, involve smaller-scale forces, and rely on technologies that permit action at greater distance. In an age of cyber warfare and drones, the end of R2P or humanitarian intervention is hardly foretold.

    Pic - "Not THAT kinda Invention!!"

    Tuesday, June 12, 2012

    Army Day!!

    "This We'll Defend!"
     

    Happy happy BDay (#237 in fact!) to Great Satan's all weather original voltiguerres - the Army!

    "...Two hundred and thirty-seven years ago, the United States Army was established to defend our Nation. From the Revolutionary War to the current operations taking place around the world, our Soldiers remain Army Strong with a deep commitment to our core values and beliefs.


    "...This 237th birthday commemorates America’s Army – who are achieving a level of excellence that is truly Army Strong. Being Army Strong goes beyond physical endurance and mental preparedness. It encompasses an indomitable spirit, and high ethical and moral values. These are not only desirable traits in a person, but in a Nation that wishes to live up to the ideals and vision of its founders. 


    "...We are “America’s Army: The Strength of the Nation."


    Pic "The American Army - Killing Our Enemies On Xmas Day Since 1776"

    Monday, June 11, 2012

    Risk and Rivalry

    Sepāh-e Pāsdārān-e Enqelāb-e "Slāmi, bay bee!!

    CNAS unleashes an interesting PDFing all about risque risks betwixt a new clear Preacher Command and Little Satan: 
    "Despite the abhorrent threats by some Iranian leaders to "wipe Little Satan off the map," the actual behavior of the regime over the past three decades indicates that the regime is not suicidal and is sufficiently rational for nuclear deterrence. A nuclear-armed Iran would be a much more dangerous adversary but that Iran is unlikely to deliberately use nuclear weapons, or transfer a nuclear device to terrorists to use, against Little Satan"
    Ahh. The fly in the body wax.

    Despite the catchy name, Iran"s Supreme Leader isn"t undying - and in a theocratic despotry all bets are off bay bee when the old Ayatollah makes the haj to the perfumed gardens of paradise. Since crazy crafty Revo Guards have eclipsed the the regime, there is a great chance there may not even be a follow up for the Supreme Leader gig.

    Could anyone truly advocate the true believing first line supervisors of Preacher Command who cut their teeth during the horrible Iran Iraq War will indeed be unMahdi like as they become New Clear Praetorians?
    In addition, Iran’s rulers have long been the leading global sponsors of terrorism, commanding Hiz"B"Allah, now masters of Lebanon, and collaborating with al-Qaeda. They have facilitated the killings of Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan with impunity.
     Their acquisition of nuclear arms, if it is allowed to happen, will license even more audacious behavior. Plan on this: They will threaten and perhaps lay claim to Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain (where Fifth Fleet is based); bend the flexible Qataris to their will; attempt to control the Strait of Hormuz, essential to a global economy that continues to depend on Gulf oil; intervene more forcefully than ever in Yemen; increase their influence in Iraq and Afghanistan; conspire against the Saudis (chiding them for their irresolute commitment to jihad while coveting the oil in Arabia’s majority-Shiite Eastern Province); and, of course, hang a nuclear Sword of Damocles over everyone’s head.
    All that would be just the beginning. Remember that without nuclear weapons, Iran’s rulers did not hesitate to attempt to blow up a restaurant in Washington, D.C. With nuclear weapons . . .  Use your imagination.

     Oh snap!!
    "...Possession is 90% of the law. And in that sense, on a day-to-day basis, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - which will "own" the arsenal - will control it. This is no comfort: Not only do the Revolutionary Guards contain Iran's most radical ideologues, but they also remain effectively a big, black box to Western analysts.

    "...While professors speak knowingly of hardliners, reformers and pragmatists along the Islamic republic's political spectrum, no one knows much about factions within Iran's ideological army.


    "...No American official knows with certainty whether the Iranian general controlling the bomb is a pragmatist who seeks only to defend Iran, or whether he believes the key to the Hidden Imam's return is just one button away.

    "...The second the first Iranian nuclear bomb rolls off the assembly line, power shifts fundamentally, unleashing an endless cycle with the most radical elements in Iranian society determining leadership and appointing men in their image to determine the next generation of leadership.

    Risk and Rivalry"s bona fided authors point out what everyone already knows - if the balloon goes up - might be more better for Great Satan to lead the air campaign in an old school "Blitz Week" mindset 
    Only Great Satan, with her much larger bunker-busting munitions and the ability to prosecute a sustained military campaign, would be capable of meaningfully delaying Iran's program. And only Great Satan, having exhausted all other options and acting in the face of compelling evidence that Iran was determined to acquire a bomb, would have any hope of holding together the type of coalition required to prevent Iran from emerging from an attack more dangerous than ever. 

    The potential costs of an attack would be high. Iran would likely retaliate, using ballistic missiles, proxies, and terrorists to attack Little and Great satan target sets, possibly leading to a wider war in the Levant. Attacks by Iranian-backed Shiite militants against American diplomats in Iraq, or a surge in lethal assistance to insurgents fighting NATO troops in Afghanistan, could escalate tensions. Miscalculation and confrontation with the Navy in the Persian Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices skyrocketing. And even in the absence of such escalation, a preventive military strike could rattle markets and push oil prices higher at a fragile time for the global economy. 

    Pic "Life On Standby"