Rowdy Russia Reprise?

Private Spy guys Stratfor paint a semi scary pic of a rowdy, resurging Russia in their latest release "2008: Beyond Jihadist War."

"Russia enters 2008 in the strongest geopolitical position it has known since
the Cold War's end"

"The rampant decay of its military has largely been halted, new weapons systems are beginning to be brought on line, the country is flush with petrodollars, its debt has vanished, the Chechen insurgency has been suppressed, the central government has all but eliminated domestic opposition, and the regime is popular at home."

"Chinese pipelines to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan (to be constructed in 2008) threaten to divert the energy that until now could only flow northward and serve Russian purposes."

"China is stealing Central Asia, building a network of infrastructures that will make it more attractive for the Central Asian states to integrate with China than to use Soviet-era links to Russia."

"NATO and the European Union occupy Russia's entire western horizon and are flirting with expanding their memberships. Rising defense modernizations in Asia are forcing Russia to deal with two military fronts - something at which Moscow never really succeeded during Soviet times."

"First, the consolidation that began in Russia's energy sector in 2003 will
culminate. This will be the year that state giants Rosneft and Gazprom swallow
up - whether formally or through 'alliances' - most of the remaining independent
players in the country's energy industry."

"In 2008 a number of natural gas import projects will begin operation in Western Europe, reducing that region's dependency on Russian energy and allowing the Western European states to be more dismissive of Russian interests."

"The Russians need a defining confrontation with the West. Russian power is at a relative peak, and American power at a relative low. It is a temporary circumstance certain to invert as the United States militarily extricates itself from Iraq, and one that Russia must exploit if it seeks to avoid replicating the geopolitical retreat of the 1990s."

"By 'confrontation' we do not necessarily mean a war - simply a clash that
starkly lays bare Russia's strengths against Western weaknesses."

"For Russia - which has publicly invested much political capital in opposing Kosovar
independence - European success would be more than a slap in the face.Moscow
must prevent this from happening... Simply put, for the Western world, Kosovo is
not even remotely worth an escalating conflict with Russia."

"The former pro-Western Soviet republic of Georgia, long a thorn in Moscow's side, has two secessionist regions that rely on Russia for their economic and military
existence. Russia could easily absorb them outright and thus break the myth that
American protection in the Caucasus is sustainable."

"Gazprom could swallow up Russian-British joint oil venture TNK-BP, destroying billions in U.K. investment in a heartbeat. Union with Belarus would return the Red Army to the European frontier and turn the security framework of Eurasia inside-out overnight."

"When that happens, Russia will face a resurgent United States that commands alliances in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Russia must use the ongoing U.S. entanglement in the Middle East to redefine its immediate neighborhood or risk a developing geopolitic far less benign to Russian interests than Washington's Cold War policy of containment."

On the other hand, Nikita Petrov at Russia's RIA Novosti paints a future Russia that is crunk, disorderly and in need of more Western style out of the box thinking than old school collectivist conventional considerations:

"It is unclear whether the 2007-2015 state rearmament program will be
implemented because some of its provisions are not being fulfilled
completely.

The management of the Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant had promised to supply six, rather than two, Su-34 bombers in late 2006. Moreover, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) remains only partially operational with 13 spacecraft. Right now, the Army can buy only six to seven, rather than ten, fighting vehicles because raw materials, components, fuel, heat and electricity are becoming increasingly more expensive.

Only 36% of strategic defense enterprises are solvent, while another 23% are tottering on the verge of bankruptcy.

Another problem has to do with human resources. Most skilled workers and scientists are nearing retirement age. At the same time, quite a few technical-college graduates are in no hurry to sign up with the defense industry because of low wages and insufficient career opportunities.

The lack of qualified personnel and up-to-date production equipment will inevitably impair product quality. In fact, India, Algeria and some other countries are beginning to file quality claims.

Since 1992, not a single state defense order has been fulfilled completely and on time. It would be naive to hope that the industry's problems will be solved in a couple of years. Nor should we expect a major breakthrough this year. All we can do is work patiently, without deviating from the preset program.

Little Satan

Little Satan rolls out the red carpet for the Great Satan. And it is blood red too! Little Satan goes out every day - even nights. Presented with killer successful kill rates, classified intell and
cries for a 'hudna' that couldn't possibly be for real - (cutting Peace deals would be like the kiss of Death for HAMAS whose entire raison d' existance' would magically disappear) Little Satan plans and presents her kills early a.m. like a cat. Deputy Defense Minister Matan Vilna'i is totally jazzed about taking the 'Jihad' out of Islamic Jihad's Missile Martyrs on a 24/7 humanitarian trip

"very pleased with our achievements - may I add though the air strikes are not
an alternative to a ground operation."

Real estate wise, including after the show hoes like West Bank and Gaza Strip - even the hotly contested 13 acres of hottie Har Dov (Shee Bah Farms in Arabic) Tiny tiny Little Satan 'occupies' less than 1% of the Arab world and less than a /10th of 1% of Islamic turf. What the heck is it about 7 million people that drive almost 300 million absolutely bloody batty?

At war from the day she was born, halfway through the magical month of NakBah (15 May for the Gregorians) Little Satan hit the hood and pretty much took over. In every measure of economic, political, social, and cultural measurements, Little Satan is a success. Thriving - totally off the hook - amid a hood fully stocked with misery. Without oil, without a large population, without friendly homies on her borders, without vast real estate, and without the Suez Canal, she is far superior, far more humane than Hosni's Egypt, Abdullah's (v2.0) Jordan, Bashar's Syria and ex colonies like Abbas' West Bank and HAMAS' Gaza Strip.

In fact, Little Satan is so magical - so irresistable - that recent internal Palestinian polls reflect that an amazing 62% of Palestinians would prefer being citizens in Little Satan than any future Palestinian state.

Little Satan got Game! Like all democracies Little Satan actively and energetically pursues academics, the arts, business, commerce, communications, industry, medicine, science and tech. World Economic Forum rates Israel at genius level for the last two years - 1st for availability of scientists and engineers, 2nd for venture capital availability, 3rd in the world in Technological readiness, 5th in patents pending amd 7th in innovations.

The 2008 box set will be out soon. Chief Economist and director of the Global Competitiveness Network, Augusto Lopex-Claros, confides:

"Israel has become a world technology powerhouse, and this is beginning to have
favorable demonstration effect on the rest of the economy. Israel has benefited
from the development of culture of innovation, supported by first-class
institutions of higher education and scientific research."

When conflicts disrupt these pursuits, Little Satan actively and ruthlessly pursues the absolute defeat of her enemies. Just like Great Satan - Little Satan's armoured blitz by General Sharon in 1967 and 1973 faithfully followed General Sherman and General Patton's model of killing the most enemies, capturing the most pows, liberating the most turf in the least amount of time while suffering far fewer casualities.

In a wonderful homage to Great Satan's Total War Master - many times Little Satan blitzed in Sherman tanks - just like Patton. Victorious without modesty, repeatedly and at will. Many times all at once and all by herself until the Yom Kippor War in 1973. The Great Satan did indeed intervene to ensure the ME's only Democracy did not perish - if only by replenishing armor and passing on Soviet Union's request to Little Satan: Please Don't park your tanks in downtown Cairo and Damascus.

Having personally witnessed right before his eyes Little Satan's fangs in action as a small boy when the first King Abdullah's best friend and Air Force fighter commander was shot to pieces trying to lift off during Little Satan's pre emptive jet blitz of 1967 (the Summer of Love - no less) that annihilated the combined Air Forces of Egypt, Syria, Jordan and any Iraqi air forces in range before lunch time, King Abdullah (v2.0) recently hosted Little Satan in Jordan and shared gossip. Unverified intell claims

Have something in writing drawn up with Abbas ready to show Bush – even if it
means nothing. That in a word was the advice Jordan’s King Abdullah II gave
Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert when they met in Aqaba Thursday, Jan. 3.
Olmert offered to go along with the advice, but said he was worried about the
Palestinian leader. Last week, Abbas confided to Abdullah and Egypt’s Hosni
Mubarak that he was totally infected with Palestinian Sympathy
Fatigue (though not a 62% er) and way ready to hit the escape hatch and bail
out for his beach front villa in Qatar.

After all, the real problem in the ME has never been just a K or 2K acres of disputed land, occupied turf or Holy sites. Complete absence of a legitimate government — and played arabic, Palestinian, mohammedist, and socialist foreign subsidized myths and make believeologies - Palestinians may be to blame. Rowdy foreigners, who learned the hard way not to send in THEIR jets and panzers to conquer Palestine from the river to the sea, feed failed ideas. That inhumane tactics, illegitimate leaders, suiciders, rocket brigades would grant sweet fruit like the honor, prosperity, and victory that they could never receive through war, tribal dictatorship or public opinion.

Little Satan greets Great Satan amid rocketry and retardation with class, grace and style:

"You are our strongest and most trusted ally in the battle against terrorism
and fundamentalism and a staunch supporter of our quest for peace and
stability."

Great Satan - totally pleased - responds with class, grace and style:

"The alliance between our two nations helps guarantee Israel's security as a
Jewish state."

HAMAS acknowledges Great Satan's field trip to Jerusalem (flying in - just like Mohammed!) signals scary signals. Mustafa al-Barghouti, top cat of the political movement the Palestinian National Initiative fears that

"Israel's impunity has increased after Annapolis, and we fear further Israeli
military escalation after Bush's visit."

Girlfriends

It was late summer in 1999, and I was in Israel. President Bush was still Governor Bush, and I was traveling as his foreign policy adviser. In a meeting with Ariel Sharon, I met one of his advisers—a confident and impressive woman, roughly my age (well, actually a little younger), named Tzipi Livni.

Little did I know how intertwined our lives and work would become! Last May, Tzipi, like me, became the second woman ever to hold her nation's top foreign policy job. Those early months were anything but easy: violence in Gaza, a war in Lebanon, a radical President in Iran. Tzipi's strength to endure, indeed to excel, in what were difficult, often heartbreaking, conditions was a testament to her character.

Tzipi and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have the foresight to know that a Palestinian state is in Israel's greatest interest, and that they must pursue the cause of peace with their Arab neighbors. President Bush and I deeply share this goal. And for Tzipi and me, it is now the focus of our work together.

Tzipi has not just been my colleague; she has become my friend. We have sat together for hours debating ideas—freely, openly, even combatively at times. I have learned of her deep pride in her children. We share an abiding respect for our now deceased fathers—mine, a successful son of the old segregated American South; hers, a defender of the Jewish homeland in its first days of independence.

Tzipi, 48, is a woman of conviction, intelligence and peace. I deeply respect her. I like being around her. And I know that long after we have both exited the world stage, we'll still be friends.

submitted by CoNdOlEeZa

Albright Doctrine

The Grand Dame Avatar realist Madelaine K. Albright released a heartfelt caveat to the next Pres elect that requires a willing suspension of reality and a fearless ride on realpolitik's warped worldview one wheeled wagon. The ex Sec of State's jones for a trip on the wayback machine to the really unstable swinging stability of the 90's bi polar world is easy! It's all about the fear.

"One manifestation of fear is an unwillingness to think seriously about
alternative perspectives. America's standing in the world has been in free
fall these past few years because our country is perceived as trying to
impose its own reality -- to fashion a world that is safe and comfortable
for us with little regard for the views of anyone else."

This is significant. By happy luck, serious alternatives to 60 years of sucking up to unelected leaders - benign or horrid - ours or theirs - has not brought the corrupt, amoral cult of stability's stability, peace or security. It has brought terrorism, oil embargoes, wars, disease, famine and genocide. Serious alternatives are indeed required.

Totally played and way too last millenium. America's standing in the world, instead of free falling - has actually consistently soared - like Darling Nikki's rapprochment, Deutschland's elopement and Great Britain's renewed vows.

Realistically, the views of the Great Satan are totally legit with the entire world. America's deliciously dissing debut' - disregarding deranged doofuses with red ran fake blood hands - The attractive, articulate - universally awesome Non negotiable demands of human dignity

"...the rule of law, limits on state power, free speech, religious liberty,
equal justice, property rights, tolerance of difference and respect for
women. These values are a source of success for nations across the world and they are the only ideas that can give a future of modernity with dignity. This, we believe, will ultimately defeat the ideology of violent extremism and thus ensure our security..."

The Great Satan's safe comfy zone is truly global. Downright dangerous to illegitimate, intolerant regimes that torment their own people, their neighbors and have a magical ability and affinity for sponsoring and sprouting civilian rich environments packed with rocket rich self sabotaging woman worshipping, gender apartheiding rejectionists - who may or may not be fiddling about with WMD, intolerant militias, foreign fed 'n' led missile men, and active terrorist agents of destabilization.

"We need to do a better job of seeing ourselves as others do. It strikes the
world as ludicrous that we -- with all our wealth and power -- seem so afraid of
terrorists, rogue states..."

So afraid? In the New Millenium WMD crunked up caliphates, supervillans and their logistical intolerant chaotic soul mate states should indeed be so afraid - frightened - no less - by America Unbound. There is zero worth - no reason to tolerate them. Regimes that espouse no legitmacy or share no values. Unfree, in some cases nigh unhinged regimes - cannot help but act out against any functional or semi functional democracy in the current weapons range of 2K Kilometers.

Everything in America's arsenal - communications, financial, military, overt covert ops, diplomatic meetings etc."Dialouge" should be implemented as regime killing regime changes. Sending clear signals - Universal Confrontation and Selective Intervention are key components in the New Millenium.

As Ex Sec Albright herself says

"That idea is grounded in belief in democracy and burnished by our sense of
responsibility to generations past and still to come, and to keep our
nerve in the face of adversaries far more potent than those we face today."

Diplomatic Faux Pas?

When Deutschland recently officially unofficially declared Iranian uranium enrichment enthusiasts personnae non gratis - effectively sacking them, stripping diplo stats and shipping them home sans atomic fanboy stuff it could have been considered one of the "Grits and Deutschmarks Uber Alles" mach shau. Except Deutschers didn't stop there.

Using a trick like the mullahs wrote the book on, Germany dispatched faux diplomats to Tehran, and they weren't carrying Deutschmarks - as befitting Iran's largest legit trading and biz homies - instead (according to unverified sources) they toted lap top computers. In a crazy command and control caliphate like the Islamic Republic - Das ist Verboten! Iranian Foreign Mis Ministry spokescat Ali Hosseini admitted

"Responsible authorities recognized that this person was engaging in
undiplomatic behavior and has to leave Iran."

Responsible authorities recognize recent frantic crackdowns on online fun of any kind - new millenium censoring technologies buddied up with old school headknocking drove Iran's Online Posse into nigh unsustainable levels of overtime hours, new detention facilities and a cyber crackdown on tools that undermine the regime.

This is significant. For the price of a single bunker buster (your choice - nuclear, neutronic or conventional) tens of 1000's of laptop computers with Wi Fi and filter busters could be passed out to combat a regime whose nation is fully crunk with smart, tech saavy young people and perhaps spur the most awesome of all regime changes - from the inside out. In "Children of Jihad" Jared Cohen points out in his Persian pilgrimage that kids in Iran are sick of preachers ruining their nation, their future and their lives:

"The biggest problem in Iran right now is that young people there can tell you
exactly what kind of society they don't want, they can tell you exactly what
kind of society they do want.

These young Iranians cannot tell you for the life of them who they want to lead them. They cannot find a single leader to gravitate around and so without a leader to mobilize them, they are not going to go to this. That's part of it. They are also terrified as a legacy of the student riots and what happened in 1999 but also a lot of them have lost confidence in the reform movement.

So if they go to the streets and risk getting arrested or detained, who in the government are they actually trying to influence? They don't feel like they have an advocate in the establishment right now. Now, I believe that the next leader of Iran is going to come from this youth generation."

Unlimited access to the internet in their own nation would certainly (regime) change that! Unbridle'd internet capitalistic chicanery unleashed with blogs, essays and easy made faux ID's could launch the next generation's future Iranian leadership cadre into political movements with real time communications, rallies and press that the 'authorities' might not be able to counter with traditional despotic control methodology.

Sweet.

Chechnya Caveat

Dr Yossef Bodansky returns after his super controversial "Secret History of the Iraq War" with a very interesting nonfictional docu drama about the future of Jihad. Using history, high level contacts and a bit more open on sources, Dr. B shares lessons, tactics and strategies that the Russians used to salvage an almost total defeat in Chechnya (despite leveling the capitol Grozny - twice) into a managable draw and a likely marginalization of the destructive appeals of militant mohammedism. It's "Chechen Jihad - Al Qaeda's Training Ground and the Next Wave of Terror"

When the Soviet Union regime changed herself into the Russian Commonwealth, Chechnya became a laboratory for years, featuring a weird hook up of native Chechen separatists and militant jihad Joes.

From all over Central Asia and the ME, rejectionists with an evil penchant for victims, sharia law and explosives have joined forces to replenish al Qaeda and the world wide mohammedist movement to continue the attack on anything not remotely resembling a romanticsed reactionary 8th century fantasy.

"Chechens are professional fighters—disciplined and responsible, with a
combination of skills, expertise, and character that has made them the most
sought-after 'force multipliers' in the jihadist movement."

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Lebanon, Kurdistan, Caucasas, Algeria, the Balkans, Sudan, Kashmir and Azerbijian. To name a few. Chechens appear wherever Jihadi mini theocracies are in danger of collapsing. Chechens also appear wherever Jihadi theocracies are exporting murder, mayhem and torment to their neighbors. Secular mercenary Chechens appear whenever Vlad needs some military influence in old school Soviet Republics that have splintered into an astounding number of provinces, peoples and independence movements.

Bodansky shares secrets and actually does the kiss and tell routine with secret histories of the two Chechen wars, caveats about "Chechenization" - a Russian style 'hearts and minds' campaign that failed and transformed the fight from a secular nationalist campaign into a holy war against Mother Russia and the secular, wicked, woman worshipping West.

And, in the most instructive message for Western audiences, reveals how the Chechen rebellion was eventually crippled by a schism between Mohammedists and the Chechen people whose nationalist rebellion they had co-opted—an object lesson in the vulnerability of imposed Caliphatic campaigns around the world.

Great writing, action and real life twists that rival anything from Hollywood. Especially sweet is the revelation of Putin's payback kill on El Bastardo of the horrific Beslan School Massacre . Bodansky presents a convincing pic from military and intelligence sources throughout the ME and Central Asia, as well as senior officials, spies, mercs and survivors in many of the affected nations.

"Chechen Jihad" offers an intimate look, chilling possibilities and possible solutions.

Genes

My genes sometimes shrink in cold water.