While it's always cool to LOL out loud concerning any despot"s tenure - Bashar al Assad"s much heralded end really depends on what all"s left of Syrian Army
After two years of armed conflict, is the Syrian army finally close
to collapse? This question, frequently posed during the war, has gotten
much louder over the past month as the anti-Assad rebellion increases
its military effectiveness and becomes more audacious in its messages on
social-media sites. For those who have been tracking the conflict for
the past twenty-five months, the strength of the Syrian army is the best
barometer for measuring Assad’s staying power.
Judged from the latest events on the ground, there is a strong
feeling worldwide that Bashar al-Assad’s security forces are nearing the
breaking point. For the first time since the civil war began, the
Syrian army last month lost control of a provincial capital, the city of
Raqqa, after a sustained offensive from rebel fighters—some of whom
were associated with the extremist Jabhat al-Nusra. In the country’s
northeastern and eastern sectors, antigovernment elements are beginning
to establish a temporary political administration to fill the void
of a retreating regime. And in a new development, Syrian rebel forces
have opened up a new front near the Golan Heights and along the
Syrian-Jordanian border, two areas relatively close to the capital of
Damascus.
When coupled with a desertion rate that continues to thin out the
Syrian army’s rank-and-file, an overtaxed logistics system for
sustaining the army in the field, and the hundreds of fatalities that
the Syrian government suffers every month,
it is tempting to say that the backbone of Assad’s strength—the army,
intelligence and security services—will not be able to hold on much
longer. Consider the actions of Syria’s Grand Mufti, Sheikh Ahmad Badr
al-Dine Hassoun, who pleaded last month for Syria’s young men to fulfill
their religious duty by joining the army. Translation: the Syrian armed
forces are in a tough spot, and need more men to fight.
Yet, as stressed as the Syrian army now appears after two years of
trying to contain hundreds of thousands of dedicated anti-government
fighters, we should not hastily conclude that Bashar al-Assad is on his
way out, as the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper hinted during testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee last month.
Progovernment forces have demonstrated a keen ability to adapt their
techniques, conserve their firepower, and change their military plans to
meet the changing strategic environment. More importantly, the Syrian
army has demonstrated a willingness to escalate the use of force, employ
destructive weapons systems and launch indiscriminate ballistic
missiles.
Early last year, when a systematic campaign of destruction on the
rebel-controlled district of Baba Amr failed to end opposition
resistance, the Syrian army increased its firepower by deploying its
fleet of helicopter gunships. When helicopters failed to do the trick,
fixed wing aircraft and fighter jets were added to the mix, resulting in
the deaths of thousands of additional civilians and culminating in an
incredibly bloody summer.
In the fall and winter of 2012, when the Free Syrian Army made minor
inroads in Aleppo and encroached ever closer to Damascus, the regime
opted to give up on securing the entire country. Knowing that the
insurgency was too strong in Syria’s north and east, Bashar al-Assad
chose to play the long game by consolidating his forces
in areas of the country considered vitally important for the regime’s
survival: Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the Alawite coast. As the
Institute for the Study of War’s Joseph Holliday has illustrated in his latest report,
the Syrian regime made the judgment that controlling the entirety of
Syria was no longer possible.
It was considered possible, however, to
ensure that neighborhoods supportive of the government have sufficient
resources to defend themselves. Building progovernment militias in local
villages, arming Syria’s minority communities to fight a Sunni
rebellion, and holding the key corridor from Damascus to the northwest
coast is now far more important than killing every insurgent and
controlling every town.
Before the international community writes Bashar al-Assad off, it
should realize that a desperately strained Syrian military is not
necessarily defeated. Assad maintains the solid loyalty of much of the
armed forces, with a significant portion of them now fighting to thwart
or delay what could be a vengeful, Sunni-led, post-Assad order after the
war ends.
While he may not be able to extinguish the insurgency completely or
control the entire country as he once did, Bashar al-Assad still has
enough firepower and men to continue the conflict through the year.
Assad recognizes that cutting the army’s losses in the field, rallying
his support base, and narrowing the mission are key to ensuring that the
regime can fight on.
Pic - "The After Bashar War"
