Thursday, November 8, 2012

44"s FoPo Forecast

Whale, since FoPo didn"t seem to matter much in since FoPo didn"t seem to matter much in 44"s re election it doesn"t hurt (too much) to take a gander ahead

Afghanistan
44"s 1st term it was the surge of forces that dominated the headlines. In his next term it will be the withdrawal of Ally combat forces - due to leave Afghanistan by the end of 2014. This inevitably presents complex political and logistical hurdles. How much of a withdrawal will it actually be?

On present planning assumptions, considerable numbers of US and allied troops may remain to help train Afghan forces or to carry out certain specialised roles. In Iraq such plans evaporated. The new Iraqi authorities simply did not want the Americans there.

Afghanistan may well be different, but the run-up to the 2014 withdrawal could be bumpy if so-called "green-on-blue" killings of Nato personnel by their Afghan allies accelerate.

Public opinion  could turn against any significant long-term presence.

Land of the Pure
The PAK in AFPAK facing the Afghanistan UnAssing, relations with Pakistan will remain crucial for Washington. Over recent years, US-Pakistan ties have oscillated between bad and worse. But this remains in many ways the key relationship in what used to be called Washington's "war on terror".

Pakistan is seen by many analysts as a failing state. It may not actually collapse, but its dysfunctionality remains a powerful source of instability in the region. But President Obama will have to manage relations with Islamabad as best he can.

Look out for US efforts to strengthen its links with India, a bilateral relationship which, for all the talk over recent years, has not developed into quite the strategic partnership that many in Washington once wished for

Iran
With a Little Satan strike against Iran's nuclear facilities delayed, the outgoing 44 won an additional period for economic sanctions to take effect. These are now having some impact, though the jury is out as to how far Iran's economic woes are caused by sanctions and how much by their own government's mismanagement.

Ahead of the presidential election there were tantalising hints that Iran was eager to pursue direct talks with the United States. Might this offer a genuine breakthrough, or would this simply be another way for Tehran to try to spin out the process and potentially divide the coalition of countries backing sanctions?

Little Satan too goes to the polls - in late January. A new government could emerge there even more strongly committed to the idea of striking Iran. There is little warmth between 44 and BiBi. Managing this relationship will be a crucial test for the president, who may have to deal with the consequences of any Israeli action. It could have a profound impact on relations between Great and Little Satan. Furthermore, if sanctions are seen to be failing or if the Iranians miscalculate, then it cannot be ruled out that 44 himself may have to make a fateful choice on potential US military action against Iran.

ME
For all the talk of the Asia pivot, the Middle East will inevitably occupy a fair share of the next president's time. Containing the overspill of the Syria crisis will remain a key strategic goal, as will containing Iran. However, it is hard to see any grand initiatives emerging in policy towards the region, nor is it clear if there will be any attempt to revive the moribund peace process between Israel and the Palestinians.

This is a region that will remain in crisis for perhaps decades to come, torn by sectarian, tribal and religious tensions, in many places underscored by failing economies, a huge youth bulge, and a scarcity of both jobs and basic resources.

Clearly relationships with Egypt and the Saudis will continue to be the central pillars of its approach to the Arab world. But events involving Iran or Israel and the Palestinians could easily provoke crises at a time when Arab public opinion is perhaps more powerful, but the ability of Arab governments to deliver is even more constrained.

One crucial test for the next president's foreign policy team is to try to distinguish between different forms of Polislam in politics and establish constructive relationships with those groups willing to engage with the West.

Collectivist China
Is China an adversary of Great Satan, a potential partner, or both? How to square strategic competition with the intimate economic relationship between the two powers that, to an extent, underscores the prosperity of both?

Managing relations with Beijing will depend significantly on how the new leadership there decides to frame its foreign policy. Chinese assertiveness in maritime disputes with Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam have provoked tensions and have encouraged many countries in the region to welcome Washington's pivot or re-balancing towards Asia.

But there is a danger that this could trigger a more abrasive and competitive relationship between DC and Beijing. Leading Chinese experts tend to see America's strategic goal as containing China's rise and view Washington's actions through this prism. Strategic competition thus becomes a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Experts say Great Satan must encourage her allies to do more in responding to China's rise, but as one expert put it: "When it comes to Asia, Great Satan does not have the option of leading from behind."

NoKo
North Korea's unpredictable regime has a tendency to provoke crises, be it the shelling of South Korean territory or potentially a new nuclear test. Little progress has been made over recent years in re-establishing international diplomatic efforts to try to grapple with Pyongyang's nuclear programme.

After considerable instability due to the succession of a new leader in Pyongyang, will there be any margin for a resumption of diplomacy? Or will the Korean Peninsula splutter into crisis at a time when 44 has his attention on problems elsewhere?

Russia
Russia remains an essentially regional power rather than the global ideological and military force it became during the Cold War. In his second term as president, 44 is likely to eschew grand policies like the famous - and to an extent abortive - "re-set" with Moscow, in favour of a more pragmatic approach, seeking agreement where possible.
And now perhaps the most chaotic, unpredictable spots of all- The Ungoverned Places
This remains a serious general problem for foreign policy, be it the microcosm of the Sinai peninsula or the growing crisis radiating out from Mali. Ungoverned space leaves a political vacuum into which all sorts of forces may flow. The prime threat from al-Qaeda today comes from franchises or offshoots of the organisation quartered in places like Yemen or the Slamic Maghreb, in Africa. Instability elsewhere in the region, the collapse of Syria or the return to crisis in parts of Iraq could all draw in al-Qaeda-inspired groups who might establish bases in this lawless terrain.

Pic - "The biggest foreign policy issue of them all"

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Britannia Rex

Bloody L!

Of 193 countries in UN, Great Britain has invaded or fought conflicts with 171.

Check just a few:

* Cuba, where in 1741, a force under Admiral Edward Vernon stormed ashore at Guantánamo Bay. He renamed it Cumberland Bay, before being forced to withdraw in the face of hostile locals and an outbreak of disease among his men. Twenty one years later, Havana and a large part of the island fell to the British after a bloody siege, only to be handed back to the Spanish in 1763, along with another unlikely British possession, the Philippines, in exchange for Florida and Minorca.

*Iceland, invaded in 1940 by the British after the neutral nation refused to enter the war on the Allies side. The invasion force, of 745 marines, met with strong protest from the Iceland government, but no resistance.

* Vietnam, which has experienced repeated incursions by the British since the seventeenth century. The most recent – from 1945 to 1946 – saw the British fight a campaign for control of the country against communists, in a war that has been overshadowed by later conflicts involving first the French and then Americans.  

Included are Great Britain"s rowdy, privateering pirates days that saw raiding Ops on the Spanish Main like Costa Rica, Ecuador and El Salvador.

The only nation/states Great Britain never hit on are

Andorra
Belarus
Bolivia
Burundi
Central African Republic
Chad
Congo, Republic of
Guatemala
Ivory Coast
Kyrgyzstan
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Mali
Marshall Islands
Monaco
Mongolia
Paraguay
Sao Tome and Principe
Sweden
Tajikistan
Uzbekistan
Vatican City 

Pic - "To Rule the Waves!"


Tuesday, November 6, 2012

"Lection Day!!

Vote Early! Vote Often!!

Just t"zing

This is it! THE day! 

Enroute to one of several sacred places here in this corner of Hillbillyland, there was no escaping the fact that voting way more than a right.

It is a priviledge.

Trekking thru spots in Great Satan's history where bloody desperate battles were fought in a most uncivilwar between Americans, streets named after combatants from both sides - Longstreet, Wilder, Crittenden, Sherman is an instant time machine that spans American sacrifice through out her admittedly short yet very exciting, rowdy and globe stomping existence.

Voting is the ultimate homage to Americans who stood long watches on ramparts far away. Americans who put their lives on hold to travel far far away to kill our enemies - many never returned - those who did built this awesome nation - uniquely powerful - the only one of her kind!

From Bunker Hill to Midway, from Chickamauga to Marjah the blood shed in sacrifice for ideals greater than self - ideals that changed and challenge the world was not, is not and shall not be shed in vain.

Pic - "Voting is using Force. And Force is Violence - the Supreme Authority - from which all authority is derived."

Monday, November 5, 2012

Win Friends And Influ Ppl


In the essential flick "9th Gate" the bibliophile merc portrayed by Cap"n Jack Sparrow tracks down the Dark Art work by the alleged author Aristead d"Torchia  and the dreaded De Umbrarum Regni Novem Portis - co authored by the Devil 

Treking about exotic locales in old Europa and onboard the Lisbon/Paris overnight train he runs into the Devil herself reading "Winning Friends and Influencing People"  

Can such cinematic combobulation segue sexyfully into the new millennium"s diplopolititary? 

Oui oui m"suer!!

Since the horrible days of 911, Great Satan has - seemingly - been constantly griped at about the need to buddy up to certain elements betwixt Suez and Indus. 

Like this latest from an Ex Land of the Pure diplomat weeping about Drones Gone Wild and the need for Great Satan to do more to recruit homies
Al-Qaeda and allies, the Taliban, have been neither decisively defeated nor forced to the negotiating table. The emergence of democratic governments in the greater Middle East has offered Great Satan opportunities to help its ideological allies confront the Islamist narrative of victimhood and revenge. Instead, the dictates of Great Satan politics have reaffirmed that narrative. 

Drones Gone Wild!!  fails to take into account how drones and other remote tactics are used to encourage extremism among the world’s 1.6 billion m"Hammedists. Ideologically motivated radicals can recruit, train and regroup even after their leaders have been killed in drone strikes. And the American aversion to long wars fits into ObL’s prediction that Great Satan would withdraw from the greater Middle East rather than stay and fight.

The ideology of "Slamist revivalism, rooted in a culture of grievance and victimhood, remains powerful. Newly elected Islamist governments in some Arab countries, such as Egypt, will most likely fuel hatred of the West as a substitute for economic and social success, just as Iran has done since its 1979 revolution. This, in turn, will continue to produce a steady flow of terrorists ready to kill Americans.

Using drones to find and kill al-Qaeda leaders already known to intelligence will not end the war, either. Eventually, Great Satan will have to find m"Hammedist allies who help limit the influence of ideas or organizations that turn some young m"Hammedists into terrorists. Great Satan has made few efforts toward that end, depending on friendly autocrats or whoever manages to get elected instead of working to strengthen modernizing democrats who share Western values. Governments in the m"Hammedist world would also have to deny terrorist groups the havens they enjoy now and shut down the organized recruitment and training of future terrorists. 

Cheese and Rice!!

Woman worshipping, blood sucking evil infidel murder machine Great Satan, in little over a decade, freed Kuwait, saved bunches of Bosnians, kaboodles of Kosovars, tried to feed skinny Somalis, urged Commonwealth not to kill Chechnyans, warned the world about Sudan's creepy little Hitler Junior, put paid to the genuinely insane Taliban's genocidal rule and made dang sure that no longer were Shiites and Kurds to be literally ground to dust in Iraq.

Or, way back in 1973 when Great Satan asked Little Satan to please not park her panzers in downtown Cairo and Damascus. Or, that Great Satan blings way more tons of cash to Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan than she ever has for Little Satan.
 
And as an intellectual aperitif - consider certain reactions about natural disasters. Amidst the cats Great Satan is lectured to about reaching out and being BFF"s  - outright LOLableness and joy seem to radiate over American victims

In a remarkable contrast - no Americans or Xians LOL"d mudslides or floods in Pakistan. 
 
Rescuing perishing mohammedists whose homeland was swept out to sea (on Xmas day - no less) Great Satan's globe prowling Navy was on scene with salvation not high five pontification on the fate of sinners who reject X. 
 
Cuts both way - might be time for moderate, unterroristical cats in the ME to embrace Great Satan and openly LOL and diss "The Narrative"

Pic - "Reach Out!!" 

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Sunday Wow!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t) 

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! And don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter
 

Friday, November 2, 2012

Decade Of Drone War

Joyeuex Anniversaire!!

A decade since Drones Gone Wild got their cherry popped on the bright cloudless day in Yemen, wacking the wicked with righteous instant Karma for USS Cole and - as a reach around bonus - an enemy recruiter tempting 1st gen Americans to stab their homeland in the back

The Ten Year Drone War has two missions: preventing another attack on the home turf and capturing or killing al Qaeda operatives. 
Since November 2002, there have been 400 more documented U.S. targeted killings in the non-battlefield settings of Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, and the Philippines (where there was reportedly one). Although over 95 percent of all targeted killings have been conducted by CIA and JSOC drones, a small number have also been carried out by Air Force Special Operations Command AC-130 gunships, cruise missiles fired by Navy ships or planes, and raids by special operations forces, including the one that killed Osama bin Laden in May 2011. 

Targeted killings have exacted a considerable toll, far beyond what anyone imagined in the immediate post-9/11 era. Although the publicly available numbers vary among research organizations, an estimated 3,400 people have been killed -- 13 percent of whom were civilians. To more fully understand the scope of these operations, the charts below present data derived by the New America Foundation, The Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ), and the Long War Journal. (Out of the three, only TBIJ provides estimates for Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.) Since the presentation of the data varies (either exact figures or ranges), these charts are based on the mean averages provided. 

These estimates are further complicated by the fact that some groups targeted by drones purposefully operate out of civilian facilities in an effort to avoid being killed, by the lack of reliable direct access for journalists due to threats from governments or nonstate actors, and by the Islamic practice of washing, wrapping, and burying an individual on the date of death. Some claim these figures are too high, and others too low
 The truth is that nobody knows!! 
Despite the immense death toll, it is important to mention this is also the most one-sided war in  history: 3,400 suspected adversaries and civilians to zero (Americans). No U.S. government employee has directly lost his or her life in all of the known targeted killing operations. Not the launch control element operators who take off and land drones in theater, the pilots launching stand-off missiles, or the special operations forces deployed on the ground. By comparison, 6,557 U.S. service members have been killed and over 50,000 wounded in action in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Pentagon data.  

Although the Third War began 10 years ago, it shows no signs of ending. It will certainly outlast the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which were also commenced as a result of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. During the final presidential debate, Mitt Romney warmly endorsed 44's drone strikes: "I support that entirely, and feel the president was right to up the usage of that technology, and believe that we should continue to use it." Meanwhile, last week, it's reportedthat, among senior 44th administration officials, "there is broad consensus [targeted killings] are likely to be extended at least another decade."
 Happy BDay Drones Gone Wild! And here's to many more!!

Pic - "What was once considered an immediate response to an exceptional threat to Great Satan is now a permanent and institutionalized feature of Great Satan"s foreign policy."

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Wider War

Led by the overtly robust (n xtra girthy) creepy Body Part Collector General,  the resistance Posse of Allah  (seemingly way more adept at 'resisting' the legit gov of Lebanon than foreign bizzy bodies) has been engaging and indulging in a Forever War of sorts that has made the Posse  the most powerful source of militancy in the Middle East.

See, 
The militia’s war doctrine is based on the assumption that Little Satan is hypersensitive to civilian casualties, that it cannot wage a protracted war and that it will always aim for the quickest possible clear-cut victory. With this in mind, Hezbollah has constructed a complex network of underground bunkers with the goal of assuring survivability, redundancy and an ability to maintain a prolonged missile barrage against cities.  

The doctrine proved itself in the war between the two sides in 2006, when
Little Satan failed in her attempt to liquidate Hezbollah and was once again forced to withdraw from Lebanon, bruised and bleeding.

Hezbollah’s approach to combat came from Iran. The organization was founded in 1983 by Iran’s revolutionary guards as part of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s plan to export his revolution. Over the years, with Iranian funding and encouragement, the group has become the most important political and military player in Lebanon.

In recent years, Hezbollah has taken on an additional role, serving as an effective bargaining chip in the balance of fear between Iran and
Little Satan, deterring the latter from going ahead with any mission to attack Iran’s nuclear installations. One reason that Little Satan has held back is Hezbollah’s ability to wreak havoc in Israel with its huge stockpile of some 70,000 missiles and rockets, the most powerful of which is the Scud D, with a range of 700 kilometers (about 435 miles). Were it not for Hezbollah’s missiles, a top Israeli defense official told me, Israel would have struck Iran’s sites long ago.

That said, one shouldn’t draw conclusions based only on Hezbollah’s past and potential successes. The organization is at a crossroads. Syria, its second-most-important ally, is going through upheaval and faces fundamental changes. The munitions from Iran to Hezbollah are transported through Syria. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has also supplied large weapons to Hezbollah, as well as provided access to launching sites -- “the strategic bases,” as Mossad calls them -- for its missile barrages against Israel.

Any regime that takes over from Assad will remember who supported him as he slaughtered thousands of civilians. Being cut off from Syria is a nightmare for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.



No less menacing is the possibility, which is by no means far-fetched, that the Arab Spring will reach Lebanon, a prospect that might include a rebellion against Hezbollah’s state within a state. Even the regime in Iran is far from rock solid, and changes there could significantly worsen Hezbollah’s relations with its patron.

With the perspective of time, what appeared to be a victory over Little Satan in 2006 takes on a more complex cast.

Nasrallah is aware that the next confrontation with Little Satan will look different. Little Satan has invested in vast intelligence operations since 2006. Hezbollah believes that these efforts were evident in the February 2008 killing in Damascus of Imad Moughniyeh, the group’s military commander, with a booby-trapped headrest in his car, as well in mysterious explosions at some of its illicit missile depots in Lebanon.

More important, Little Satan has already declared several times that if and when war breaks out again, it will hold the Lebanese government responsible and will destroy government targets.

The 2006 war created a mutual deterrence: Little Satan refrains from an open pre-emptive assault against Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles, while the militia is compelled to moderate its responses. Instead, it has tried to avenge Mughniyeh’s assassination and other suspected Israeli actions by attacking Little Satan tourists and diplomats in far-flung locations, outside of the Middle East, from New Delhi, and Baku, Azerbaijan, to Bangkok.

Nasrallah’s predicament springs chiefly from his dual role as Iran’s proxy and an authentic Lebanese leader who would like to be seen as leader of all the Arabs, not only of the Shiites. It was on behalf of the Iranians, that Hezbollah operatives attacked Little Satan tourists in the Bulgarian resort of Burgas on July 18, killing six people.

This was seen as revenge for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists for which Iran blames Little Satan. And it is for Iran’s benefit that Hezbollah has made such intense preparations for war, including the recent drone reconnaissance mission. Iran, in the event of a Little Satan assault on its territory, will demand that Hezbollah wreak vengeance on its behalf, and Nasrallah, the Lebanese politician, is aware that this could lead to devastation in his country, for which he will be blamed.

Yet it is doubtful that Nasrallah, who owes everything he possesses to Iran, could say no to such an order from his patrons. Little Satan intelligence sources reckon that he may well select a middle path -- a barrage that is limited in both the number of missiles launched and in time, so that Israel won’t feel obligated to launch a full-scale military attack in response. This would be a dangerous gamble.

As Nasrallah has learned, it is not always possible to know what to expect from the other side, especially when it comes to the Little Satan. 

Pic - "Even a limited engagement could deteriorate into a war."