"Lead With Diplomacy"

Great Satan's Madame Sec o' State -- HRC -- shared a few ideas at CFR before she departs for sunny sunny climes east of Suez.

Several interesting bits - Palestine, NoKo and this especial clarion to Iran that Diplomacy may be the first choice of 44's Admin -- but the op for it won't be around forever:

"Lead with diplomacy, even in the cases of adversaries or nations with whom we disagree. We believe that doing so advances our interests and puts us in a better position to lead with our other partners. We cannot be afraid or unwilling to engage.

"Yet some suggest that this is a sign of naiveté or acquiescence to these countries’ repression of their own people. I believe that is wrong. As long as engagement might advance our interests and our values, it is unwise to take it off the table.

"Negotiations can provide insight into regimes’ calculations and the possibility – even if it seems remote – that a regime will eventually alter its behavior in exchange for the benefits of acceptance into the international community. Libya is one such example. Exhausting the option for dialogue is also more likely to make our partners more willing to exert pressure should persuasion fail.

"With this in mind, I want to say a few words about Iran. We watched the energy of Iran’s election with great admiration, only to be appalled by the manner in which the government used violence to quell the voices of the Iranian people, and then tried to hide its actions by arresting foreign journalists and nationals, and expelling them, and cutting off access to technology.

" As we and our G-8 partners have made clear, these actions are deplorable and unacceptable.

"We know very well what we inherited with Iran, because we deal with that inheritance every day. We know that refusing to deal with the Islamic Republic has not succeeded in altering the Iranian march toward a nuclear weapon, reducing Iranian support for terror, or improving Iran’s treatment of its citizens.

"Neither the President nor I have any illusions that dialogue with the Islamic Republic will guarantee success of any kind, and the prospects have certainly shifted in the weeks following the election. But we also understand the importance of offering to engage Iran and giving its leaders a clear choice: whether to join the international community as a responsible member or to continue down a path to further isolation.

"Direct talks provide the best vehicle for presenting and explaining that choice. That is why we offered Iran’s leaders an unmistakable opportunity: Iran does not have a right to nuclear military capacity, and we’re determined to prevent that. But it does have a right to civil nuclear power if it reestablishes the confidence of the international community that it will use its programs exclusively for peaceful purposes.

"Iran can become a constructive actor in the region if it stops threatening its neighbors and supporting terrorism. It can assume a responsible position in the international community if it fulfills its obligations on human rights. The choice is clear.

"We remain ready to engage with Iran, but the time for action is now. The opportunity will not remain open indefinitely.

Art - "Diplomacy" by PG7

Assassins

It's true! In those scary scary days right after 911 -- when kids were learning new uncool words like Al Qaeda, Anthrax, Sniper, WMD and Taleban, Great Satan's spy guys were gearing up to put the vent into unconventional warfare.

Targetting al qaeda cats and hopefully super villan OBL himself with two shots in the head -- each.

This is significant. Cats along side the cat at the center of the storm -- then CIA chief Geo Tenet -- dreamed up plans to insert righteous payback in the form of Great Satan's trained killers right in the face of the enemy -- literally.

"Officials at the spy agency over the years ran into myriad logistical, legal and diplomatic obstacles. How could the role of the United States be masked?

"Should allies be informed and might they block the access of the C.I.A. teams to their targets? What if American officers or their foreign surrogates were caught in the midst of an operation?

"Would such activities violate international law or American restrictions on assassinations overseas?

Godfather style hits -- where some creep's brains may get splattered "...all over your nice Ivy League suit..." are in fact way more “surgical” surgically solution wise in eliminating terrorists than missile strikes with armed Predator drones, against creeps deploying innocent, intelligent human shielding that alas -- occasionly resulted in dozens of civilian casualties.

Actually -- seems that drones gone wild -- sweetly and concurrently under way are the spiritual relatives of hit teams that allow their enemys to actually see them and realize in the last seconds of a hateful wasted life that certain activities are like magnets for certain reactive activites.

Though the plan was never carried out -- tons of legit and stupid concerns like those noted above -- the leaking of such ideas -- never totally taken off the shelf -- serves to remind friends and enemies alike that when Great Satan gets riled up -- she is kinda crazy and unpredictable.

Art - "Assassins of the Great Satan" by 4th Wall Theatre

Ambush

Way back when Surge was getting crunk up, Mullahoplis stepped up the deployment of agents of mayhem and murder -- collectively known as the Revo Guards 'Al Quds Force" -- to assist their boy Elroy -- Mookie Al Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia in an attempt to caliphate Iraq into a theocrazy -- not unlike Persia's.

In January '07, five Iranian agents fell right into Great Satan's clutches in Kurdistan's Irbil city. Iran claimed the cats were part of a diplomatic mission in Irbil, and protested the arrest. The men were operating from a liaison office that, alas, enjoyed no diplomatic privileges.

Fittingly enough, the Irbil 5 promptly disappeared -- hopefully made uncomfortable and subjected to leisurely, thorough and intense interrogations.


"The five detainees are connected to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard – Qods Force (IRGC-QF), an organization known for providing funds, weapons, improvised explosive device technology and training to extremist groups attempting to destabilize the Government of Iraq and attack Coalition forces"


The "Bad Bad Basra" campaign against Iran's terror network in Iraq kicked off with the capture of Iranian agents in Baghdad in December 2006 and the detention of the Qods Force agents in Irbil the following month. Great Satan and the New Iraq Army guys cracked down hard on the Ramazan Corps, the command set up by Qods Force to direct operations inside Iraq.

The campaign culminated in a major operation led by the Iraqi security forces to annihilate and dismantle the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army and allied Special Groups in Baghdad and central and southern Iraq.

The recent release of the Irbil Five, was actually after the release last month of Laith Qazali, the brother of Qais Qazali.

Qais Qazali was the commander of the Qazali network, which is better known as the Asaib al Haq, or the League of the Righteous. Qais was a spokesman and senior aide to Mahdi Army leader Muqtada al Sadr. The terror group, which was part of the Mahdi Army until the spring of 2008, has received extensive financial and military support from Iran's Qods Force.

The League of the Righteous was directly implicated by Surging General Petraeus as being behind the January 2007 attack on the Provincial Joint Coordination Center in Karbala, as well as other high-profile terror attacks in Iraq. Five American soldiers were killed during the Karbala attack and subsequent kidnapping attempt.

As Great Satan closed in to free her sons, terrorists executed the five American soldiers.

Releasing these creeps to Iran -- even for innocent American girls like Roxanne -- is actually a cause for more haeartache.

Iran recipped by trying to detonate Great Satan's new Ambassador Chris Hill to Iraq Sunday -- in Thiqar province -- a

"Shiite Arab-dominated province was among the first handed over to Iraqi security forces, and was the scene of periodic clashes between Iraqi security forces and a militia loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in 2007."

Art -- "Ambush" by Vincent Segrelles

Horten Ho 229

Reimer and Walther Horten -- often called the Horten Brothers -- had little, if any, formal training in aeronautics, avionics or radar -- yet created the most advanced aircraft design of probably all time.

By 1943 in WWII Deutschland -- it was do or die time. The Eastern Front was absorbing nearly 80% of Das Reich's energies and resources, Afrika was lost -- looked like Italy was next -- and Great Britain and Great Satan were staging the debut of many many 1000 plane raids -- heavy bombers flattening German cities.

Luftwaffe's Reichsmarschall Göring issued a request for design proposals -- the 3 X 1000 project -- to produce a bomber that was capable of carrying a 1,000 kg (2,200 lb) load over 1,000 km (620 mi) at 1,000 km/h (620 mph). Conventional German bombers could reach Allied command centers in Great Britain, but were suffering devastating losses from Allied fighters.

Horten brothers delivered the world's first stealth aircraft. And ejection seat!

Essentially a flying wing, Ho 229 was of mixed construction, with the center pod made from welded steel tubing and wing spars built from wood. The wings were made from two thin, carbon-impregnated plywood panels glued together with a charcoal and sawdust mixture -- magically rendering HO 229 invisible to radar.

A shortage of pilots, petrol and catastrophic defeats on all combat fronts rendered HO 229 null and void

To determine once and for all whether Ho 229 had stealth capabilities, experts first examined the surviving 229 (sweetly hidden in DC) and probed it with a portable radar unit based on WW II time British radar tech.

Then, in the fall and winter of 2008, they set about building the full-scale re-creation at a restricted-access Northrop Grumman testing facility in California's Mojave Desert.

The construction team embraced historic materials and techniques, and the Horten 2-29 replica, like the original, is made largely of wood and bonded with glue and nails.

According to tests on the replica, World War II British radar would have picked up the Ho over the English Channel at about 80 miles (129 kilometers) out, versus 100 miles (160 kilometers) for a conventional World War II fighter.

But because of Ho 229's tremendous speed, the time from detection to target—the British mainland—would have been lowered from the usual 19 minutes to just 8 minutes, making it nigh impossible for Allied fighters to respond.

Pic - Horten Ho 229

Self Inflicted

"We weren't defeated by superior tactics -- we were thrown against the wall by sheer weight of numbers" so said combat star Kurt "Panzer" Meyer describing last millennium's titanic struggle featuring Nazi time Deutschland versus Collectivist time Russia.

Meyer knew a thing or two about tactics -- having served in Waffen SS Liebstandarte and later commanded Waffen SS Hitlerjugend in Normandy -- and his ancient analysis of Russia's war machine may still be considered au currant.

Despite fond memories of the vaunted juggernaut that ground Eastern Europe into dust eons ago -- Russia's combat bona fides were seriously dissed in not one -- but several wars against Chechnya way back in the 1990's

When Russia tried to put down Grozny the 1st time in the Commonwealth era - it was horribly embarrassing - like catching a longtime Gf hooking up with a guy that she KNEW you liked.


"The initial attack ended with a major rout of the attacking forces and led to
heavy Russian casualties and nearly a complete breakdown of morale. An
estimated 1,000 to 2,000 federal soldiers died in the disastrous New Year's
Eve assault.

"All units of the 131st "Maikop" Motor Rifle Brigade sent into the city,
numbering more than 1,000 men, were destroyed during the 60-hour fight in the
area of the Grozny's central railway station, leaving only about 230 survivors
(1/3 of them captured). Several other Russian armored columns each lost hundreds of men during the first two days and nights of the siege."

The mighty Red Army quagmired in their own back yard with the first defeat suffered by Russia nearly 51 years to the day. Not since the wicked Wehrmacht desperately delivered a bloody nose at Zhitomir Ukrainia had the Red Army been defeated and retreated.


And now BBC shares not so cool intell on the recent panzer blitz that licked Georgia's peach clean last summer.

BBC says Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technology says that half the Russian planes lost in last summer's five-day war were shot down by friendly fire.

The latest issue of the Moscow Defense Brief reports that Russia lost six jets in the war with Georgia, not four as officials claimed at the time. At least three were downed by the Russians themselves.

Detailed info about each of the losses, including times, locations and the names of the pilots.

It is also highly critical of the Russian military.

It says there was a total absence of co-operation between the Russian army and the Russian air force, which led them to conduct completely separate campaigns.

Russian forces easily overwhelmed Georgian troops during the brief war.

But the BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes says losses sustained by the Russian side in just five days have led analysts here to question how Russian troops would fare against a bigger, better-equipped and better-trained enemy.

Pic - BBC

Something For Nothing

Three hours after arriving at the Kremlin, President Barack Obama signed a preliminary agreement on a new nuclear arms-control treaty with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. The agreement -- a clear road map for a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) -- commits the U.S. and Russia to cut their nuclear weapons to the lowest levels since the early years of the Cold War.

Mr. Obama praised the agreement as a step forward, away from the "suspicion and rivalry of the past," while Mr. Medvedev hailed it as a "reasonable compromise." In fact, given the range of force levels it permits, this agreement has the potential to compromise U.S. security -- depending on what happens next.

In the first place, locking in specific reductions for U.S. forces prior to the conclusion of the ongoing Nuclear Posture Review is putting the cart before the horse. The Obama administration's team at the Pentagon is currently examining U.S. strategic force requirements. Before specific limits are set on U.S. forces, it should complete the review. Strategic requirements should drive force numbers; arms-control numbers should not dictate strategy.

Second, the new agreement not only calls for reductions in the number of nuclear warheads (to between 1,500 and 1,675), but for cuts in the number of strategic force launchers. Under the 1991 START I Treaty, each side was limited to 1,600 launchers. Yesterday's agreement calls for each side to be limited to between 500 and 1,100 launchers each.

According to open Russian sources, it was Russia that pushed for the lower limit of 500 launchers in negotiations. In the weeks leading up to this summit, it also has been openly stated that Moscow would like the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched missiles (SLBMS), and strategic bombers to be reduced "several times" below the current limit of 1,600. Moving toward very low numbers of launchers is a smart position for Russia, but not for the U.S.

Why? Because the number of deployed Russian strategic ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers will drop dramatically simply as a result of their aging. In other words, a large number of Russian launchers will be removed from service with or without a new arms-control agreement.

The Obama administration will undoubtedly come under heavy pressure to move to the low end of the 500-1,100 limit on launchers in order to match Russian reductions. But it need not and should not do so. Based solely on open Russian sources, by 2017-2018 Russia will likely have fewer than half of the approximately 680 operational launchers it has today. With a gross domestic product less than that of California, Russia is confronting the dilemma of how to maintain parity with the U.S. while retiring its many aged strategic forces.

Mr. Medvedev's solution is to negotiate, inviting the U.S. to make real cuts, while Russia eliminates nothing that it wouldn't retire in any event.

This isn't just my conclusion -- it's the conclusion of many Russian officials and commentators. Russian Gen. Nikolay Solovtsov, commander of the Strategic Missile Troops, was recently quoted by Moscow Interfax-AVN Online as saying that "not a single Russian launcher" with "remaining service life" will be withdrawn under a new agreement. Noted Russian journalist Pavel Felgengauer observed in Novaya Gazeta that Russian leaders "have demanded of the Americans unilateral concessions on all points, offering practically nothing in exchange." Precisely.

Beyond the bad negotiating principle of giving up something for nothing, there will be serious downsides if the U.S. actually reduces its strategic launchers as much as Moscow wishes. The bipartisan Congressional Strategic Posture Commission -- headed by former secretaries of defense William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger -- concluded that the U.S. could make reductions "if this were done while also preserving the resilience and survivability of U.S. forces." Having very low numbers of launchers would make the U.S. more vulnerable to destabilizing first-strike dangers, and would reduce or eliminate the U.S. ability to adapt its nuclear deterrent to an increasingly diverse set of post-Cold War nuclear and biological weapons threats.

Accepting low launcher numbers would also encourage placing more warheads on the remaining ICBMs -- i.e., "MIRVing," or adding multiple independently targeted warheads on a single missile. This is what the Russians openly say they are planning to do. Yet the U.S. has long sought to move away from MIRVed ICBMs as part of START, because heavy MIRVing can make each ICBM a more tempting target. One measure of U.S. success will be in resisting the Russian claim that severely reducing launcher numbers is somehow necessary and "stabilizing." It would be neither.

Third, the new agreement appears to defer the matter of so-called tactical nuclear weapons. Russia has some 4,000 tactical nuclear weapons and many thousands more in reserve; U.S. officials have said that Russia has an astounding 10 to 1 numerical advantage. These weapons are of greatest concern with regard to the potential for nuclear war, and they should be our focus for arms reduction. The Perry-Schlesinger commission report identified Russian tactical nuclear weapons as an "urgent" problem. Yet at this point, they appear to be off the table.

The administration may hope to negotiate reductions in tactical nuclear weapons later. But Russia has rejected this in the past, and nothing seems to have changed. As Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin of the Russian Academy of Sciences said recently in Moscow Interfax-AVN Online, "A treaty on the limitation and reduction of tactical nuclear weapons looks absolutely unrealistic." If the U.S. hopes to address this real problem, it must maintain negotiating leverage in the form of strategic launchers and weapons.

Fourth, Mr. Medvedev was quoted recently in RIA Novosti as saying that strategic reductions are possible only if the U.S. alleviates Russian concerns about "U.S. plans to create a global missile defense." There will surely be domestic and international pressure on the U.S. to limit missile defense to facilitate Russian reductions under the new treaty. But the U.S. need for missile defense has little to do with Russia. And the value of missile defense could not be clearer given recent North Korean belligerence. The Russians are demanding this linkage, at least in part to kill our missile defense site in Europe intended to defend against Iranian missiles. Another measure of U.S. success will be to avoid such linkages.

In short, Russian leaders hope to control or eliminate many elements of U.S. military power in exchange for strategic force reductions they will have to make anyway. U.S. leaders should not agree to pay Russia many times over for essentially an empty box.

Finally, Russian violations of its existing arms-control commitments must be addressed along with any new commitments. According to an August 2005 State Department report, Russia has violated START verification and other arms-control commitments in multiple ways. One significant violation has even been discussed openly in Russian publications -- the testing of the SS-27 ICBM with MIRVs in direct violation of START I.

President Obama should recall Winston Churchill's warning: "Be careful above all things not to let go of the atomic weapon until you are sure and more than sure that other means of preserving peace are in your hands."

There is no need for the U.S. to accept Russian demands for missile-defense linkage, or deep reductions in the number of our ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers, to realize much lower numbers of Russian strategic systems.

There is also no basis for expecting Russian goodwill if we do so.

Submitted by Yevgeny Bendersky

Green Light

Gallons of blood have passed under the bridge since Iran's elections. And, true to form the regime is reaching back to revolutionary bona fides again -- taking Great Britain's Embassy staff members hostage.

Last years rumours that Great Satan may have deflected Little Satan's open diss about smacking Perisa's tender sensitive portions with a lethal dose of enrichment interruptus may be null and void now.

Indeed - Great Satan's amiable, semi avuncular VP mentioned that Little Satan may be able to do whatever she wants whenever she wants.

A green light.

Tough to imagine anyone would really give a flying Imam if Iran were to get bit or hit with a blitz of Little Satan's fighter/bombers or a mix of combat aircraft and missiles.

Rumours that Saudiland may offer up sovereign airspace for IAF to trek along and hit the three critical nodes in Iran's nuclear program are worth noting simply for the operational benefits this offers to Little Satan:

Perhaps to unleash those hundred or so magically enhanced F15's and F16's -- or even go ballistic with -- o -- say, 42 Jericho III missles with about a 750 kg Warhead each would seal the deal.

Pic - Little Satan's Green Light