3 Syrias

Suriya al Kubra!

Quick - what is way more better than one Syria?

Easy!!

3 Syrias of course!

More than two years into Syria's civil war, the once highly-centralized authoritarian state has effectively split into three distinct parts, each boasting its own flags, security agencies and judicial system.

In each area, religious, ideological and turf power struggles are under way and battle lines tend to ebb and flow, making it impossible to predict exactly what Syria could look like once the combatants lay down their arms. But the longer the bloody conflict drags on, analysts says, the more difficult it will be to piece together a coherent Syrian state from the wreckage.

The geographic dividing lines that have emerged over the past two years and effectively cleft the nation in three remain fluid, but the general outlines can be traced on a map.

The regime holds a firm grip on a corridor running from the southern border with Jordan, through the capital Damascus and up to the Mediterranean coast, where a large portion of the population belongs to President Bashar Assad's Alawite sect. The rebels, who are primarily drawn from Syria's Sunni majority, control a chunk of territory that spans parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces in the north and stretches along the Euphrates river to the porous Iraqi border in the east. Tucked into the far northeastern corner, meanwhile, Syria's Kurdish minority enjoys semi-autonomy.

Those contours provide the big picture view. The view from the ground, however, is slightly muddied.

In the north, fighter brigades have set up judicial councils known as Shariah courts that dispense their own version of justice based on Islamic law, including in some cases, executions of captured regime soldiers and supporters.

In the northeast, Kurdish flags now flutter proudly over buildings after the country's largest minority carved out a once unthinkable degree of independence. Kurds, who make up more than 10 percent of Syria's 22 million people, were long oppressed under Baathist rule. Now, they have created their own police forces, even their own license plates, and have been exuberantly going public with their language and culture. Schoolchildren are now taught Kurdish, something banned for years under the Assad family's rule.

Despite the geographic split into three regions, none of the sides can speak of confidently retaining the terrain they control.

The conflict has laid waste to the country's cities, shattered its economy and killed more than 100,000 people since March 2011. The bloodshed also has fanned sectarian hatreds, and many fear that the divisions now entrenched in a country where Alawites, Sunnis, Shiites, Druse and Christians coexisted for centuries will make it hard in the future for people to reconnect as citizens of a single nation.

Syria's partition into mini-states is an ominous scenario for a country that sits along the Middle East's most turbulent fault lines. Any attempt to create an official breakaway state could trigger a wave of sectarian killings and have dangerous repercussions in a region where many religious, ethnic and tribal communities have separatist aspirations.

Pic - "When these factors are integrated into a single assessment, it seems that the regime is secure and likely to remain so, even if some rebel groups are further supplied with weapons and munitions. The effect of such supply is likely to increase casualties rather than alter the outcome of the war."

Ikwhan Interlude

While it is admittedly fun to LOL girl hating Aegypt's self imposed Ikwhan Immolation sans modesty or restraint - Polislam - the polical cache of 7th century m"Hammedism may actually be only an interlude...

Since the coup d’état against the country’s first freely-elected president, Muhammad Mursi, one might have the impression that the Brotherhood’s “moment” in Egypt lasted 12 months, after an eighty-four year prelude. The Brethren, who rose to prominence in opposition to British imperialism and Westernizing secular dictators, have, so the story goes, immolated themselves in just a year of grossly incompetent government. Grossly incompetent governance has been the norm in Egypt; popular sovereignty is new. There is no denying that millions of Egyptians who’d five times voted for Brotherhood candidates and its constitution, turned against the Ikwhan in massive demonstrations. There is also little doubt that many among the Brethren were shocked by the size of these rallies.

The Westernization of the Egyptian poor has been in retreat for over forty years. The vast slums of Cairo—the broken-concrete-and-cracked-brick neighborhoods of low-rising apartments with open sewers, where only mosques and local clerics offer a sense of community and order—are hothouses for m"Hammedism. This is not Facebook Cairo, where alienated, deplorably-educated, unskilled youth express their anger digitally and their community through demonstrations.

Local clerics, let alone the cultish, secretive godfathers of the Brotherhood, do not command Cairo’s slums—though local imams and popular preachers are certainly more influential than any representative of a state institution. The faith, with its traditional, “natural” fusion with politics, profoundly matters among the poor and the lower middle class. Among them the Egyptian army, the security services, and the police—all unreformed since the fall of Mubarak—are viewed suspiciously, if not hostilely. The new-found love affair between the army and Egypt’s secular liberals, who have in twelve months come to the conclusion that they need the military to check Islamist power, will likely do nothing to diminish the skepticism that Egypt’s devout have for army officers and their cohorts.

Saudi cash, which has been pouring into Cairo since Mursi’s fall (the Saudi royal family fears the populist Islamism of the Brethren), will not last forever. Economic judgment day is coming and it’s by no means clear that the secular crowd will do any better than Mursi did.

They may well do much worse. Economic revitalization in Egypt won’t happen unless the poor accept the pain that will come with shrinking the country’s unsustainable subsidies and state-owned enterprises.

The Brotherhood’s senior leadership may not recover from the coup. Individualism and a distaste for hierarchy—both Western imports—have had their way among Islamists, too. The Salafis of the Nour Party, who took nearly thirty percent of the judicially-scrapped parliamentary vote (much more than any secular party), are new-age fundamentalists, who may gain at the Brotherhood’s expense. But only the deluded, the naive, and the politically deceitful (Western fans of the coup come in all three categories) can believe that Islamism’s “moment” in Egypt has passed.

More likely, it’s just having an interlude.

Pic - "The New Chapter Of Fear"

On The Run

Whale, that's weird.

Not so far back - 44 LOL'd al Qaeda was about as hot as School Of Fish.

Only now -

For an organisation that is said to be in terminal decline, al-Qaeda will draw immense satisfaction from the events of this past weekend, when it demonstrated its ability to disrupt the work of Western governments by forcing the temporary closure of dozens of diplomatic missions throughout the Arab world.

While it is unclear what kind of threat prompted the US government to initiate such radical measures, or the Foreign Office to shut the British mission to Yemen, American intelligence officials are convinced that al-Qaeda is planning a spectacular attack to mark the festival of Eid, which comes at the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Specifically, they say the intelligence relates to a deadly al-Qaeda cell operating in Yemen, a war-torn country where the writ of the government barely extends beyond the confines of the ancient capital, Sana’a.

The fact that Asiri and his associates, both in Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world, retain the ability to cause a global security alert suggests that, for all the efforts undertaken by Western counter-terrorism agencies, al-Qaeda remains a considerable threat to our security.

The widespread closure of diplomatic missions over the weekend certainly appears to contradict 44's claim last summer that the “war on terror” was drawing to a close, and that the al-Qaeda organisation originally founded by Osama bin Laden no longer had the ability or capacity to cause wholesale carnage in the West.

The President made his comments in the wake of the successful mission to eliminate bin Laden at his hideaway in Pakistan in May 2011. Bin Laden’s death – together with the targeted killing by drone strikes of scores of senior

al-Qaeda terrorists hiding in the remote mountainous region between Afghanistan and Pakistan – was used to justify the impending withdrawal of American and other Nato forces from Afghanistan. After all, if al-Qaeda no longer had the capacity to terrorise the West, then there was no need for American and British soldiers to continue risking their lives.

Whoa! - Plus

There has been an uptick in reported airstrikes in Yemen in the past week, which may be related to the intercepted communications about this attack. Strikes were reported in Hadramawt on August 1, Shabwah on July 30, and Abyan on July 27—all in traditional AQAP strongholds. It remains to be seen whether these strikes, the closure of diplomatic posts, and other steps the U.S. and its allies may be taking have disrupted the plot.

Pic - "Who's on the run here? Us or al Qaeda?"

Low Tech

"What went wrong?"

Good quiz - what ev the answers are - it is shock shock shocking that in the ME sans Little Satan, a wheel barrow is considered a great invention

You can say that there is no such thing as Western science and technology, but that’s just a Western perspective based on hard-won Western values, like empiricism—either F=MA or it doesn’t. What is verifiable is true not just for so-called Westerners but is true for all men in all times.

The 19th-century m"Hammedist reform movement that arose after Napoleon’s 1798 conquest of Egypt was impressed with Western science.

The reformers counseled to make use of the science, medicine, and technology that the Westerners brought—but at all costs to avoid the Western values, like free thought, that had made those technological advances possible. In other words, these cats were forever condemned to the role of eternal consumer, end-user, and never a producer. Perhaps their consolation is that, like servants, Westerners will make it for them anyway.

Two hundred years later, the United Nations’ 2003 Human Development Report on the Arab World, “Building a Knowledge Society,” delivered the bill. “Despite the presence of significant human capital in the region,” the paper explains, “disabling constraints hamper the acquisition, diffusion, and production of knowledge in Arab societies.” 

Check it -  

“Between 1980 and 2000 Korea granted 16,328 patents, while nine Arab countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the U.A.E., granted a combined total of only 370, many of them registered by foreigners. A study in 1989 found that in one year, the United States published 10,481 scientific papers that were frequently cited, while the entire Arab world published only four.”

Even more worse  

The 57 Organization of You Know What Congress “countries have 8.5 scientists, engineers, and technicians per 1,000 population, compared with a world average of 40.7, and 139.3 for countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Forty-six Muslim countries contributed 1.17 percent of the world’s science literature, whereas 1.66 percent came from India alone and 1.48 percent from Spain. Twenty Arab countries contributed 0.55 percent, compared with 0.89 percent by Little Satan alone.”

Cyber-optimists claim that new information technologies will close the gap. Satellite TV, the Internet, Bluetooth will present Muslims with such a clear alternative to their pre-Copernican worldview that they’ll willingly choose to embrace open societies and free markets and become part of the West. But consider some of the ways in which those technologies are used: The Syrian regime used its cell-phone concession to enrich itself. Jihadis set up Internet websites to disseminate propaganda and plan operations. Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and Qatar use their satellite networks not to promote alternative views of the world but to advance the narrow interests of the ruling family. In Egypt, tele-preachers parse passages of the Quran previously impenetrable to much of a population that has a literacy rate of 60 percent to explain why infidels should be killed.

Consider the region’s most famous research project—the Iranian nuclear program. For decades now this oil-rich Persian Gulf power has been determined to go nuclear—to have a bomb, or as it claims, to provide nuclear energy for its people. Without taking any credit away from the Western intelligence services that have waged inventive clandestine operations to delay the program, including the alleged assassination of nuclear scientists, the reality is that if Iran hasn’t yet mastered the technology, there is something deeply wrong with the scientific culture of Preacher Command.

More important, there’s this: Iranians believe that the mastery of this particular field of science—rather than any other field of science, a bustling economy, and world-renowned industries and export goods, or a first-class educational system—will pave the way for Iran’s triumphant re-entry into the community of nations. Not a new microchip, or the cure for cancer, but a nuclear bomb—a weapon of mass destruction, meant to kill tens of thousands of people. A wise man once said never judge a man by his mistakes, but rather by his dreams.

In the case of the Middle East, it is hard not to shudder.

Pic - "Change is unlikely to come until it occurs in the larger political culture"

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

• *First place with 4 1/3 votes! Joshuapundit –The Great Divider
• Second place with 3 votes – The Right Planet – The So-Called ‘Dialog on Race’
• Third place with 1 vote – The Razor-Primary Care Physicians: Between A Rock and a Hard Place
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – The Noisy Room-Rolling In The Deep… With Communists
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – Liberty’s Spirit- It’s Only Dead Jews-Who Cares? Not the Obama Administration For Certain
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – Nice Deb-Drip-Drip-Drip – New Obama Scandal Emerges At DOE – Drip-Drip – Whistleblowers Illegally Gagged – Drip-Drip-Drip
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – The Political Commentator-The Weiner-Huma-Hillary Unholy Alliance!
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – The Colossus of Rhodey – What happens when you hire complete nitwits
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – VA Right! –The NRSC Asks ‘Are You Still a Republican?’ – I’m Not Sure How to Answer That!
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – Bookworm Room –A bit of Irish history with some sightseeing thrown in too
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Glittering Eye – Not Dead Yet
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote – Simply Jews – Pissing on your mobile – it is a coming thing
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote – GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD – Sinai Insurgency

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 2/3 votes! – Bill Whittle-The Lynching submitted by The Watcher
• Second place *t* with 2 votes – Diana West –Why Won’t the Media Cover Huma Abedin’s Ties to Global Jihad Movement? submitted by The Noisy Room
• Second place *t* with 2 votes – Caroline Glick – How to Respond to EU Sanctions submitted by Joshuapundit
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes -Zenpundit-How to Lose the Next War submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes-According To Hoyt -Forever Young submitted by The Colossus of Rhodey
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes - Hot Air – Man, all of these “phony scandals” have really been getting in the way of this economic recovery we’re in submitted by Rhymes With Right
• Fourth place with 1 vote - Michael Totten –Tunisia on the Brink submitted by The Mellow Jihadi
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -The Elder of Ziyon –The Elephants in the Room 2013 submitted by Liberty’s Spirit
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Adina Kutnicki – Obama: Shield For Islamic Regimes exposed His Hand submitted by The Political Commentator
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Kevin Jackson/American Thinker –Obama, Alinsky and the Devil submitted by The Right Planet
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Roger L. Simon –Christie, Paul, Libertarianism, and the NSA submitted by The Razor
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Joel Pollack/Big Journalism –WSJ: Obama Worst President for Middle Class ‘in Modern Times’ submitted by Nice Deb

See you next week! And don’t forget to like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter

Wackistan Reset

Sweet!!

Now that Madame Sec o State Kerry has settled the Forever Quest for Palestine - it's time to square thangs with That Valuable Ally

Nishan - e - Haider!

"Be with you girl - like being low. Hey! Hey! Hey! Like being stoned"

This delightful little ditty from way back in the last millennium makes a wonderfully crunk soundtrack for the 'lationship au courant betwixt Great Satan and her only client new clear army with a nation state attached.

The one - the only - The Land of the Pure

And Great Satan may be fixing to hope for a reset of sorts!

Good luck!! 

Granted, having fewer U.S. troops and civilians available in Afghanistan to serve as targets for Pakistan-supported terrorists will reduce a flashpoint in the relationship, but it is hard to see Washington and Islamabad finding much common ground. Their interests converge in very few areas, the biggest being the desire by both sides to prevent the Pakistani Taliban from seizing power in Islamabad, which would cut off Pakistan’s existing political and military class from the trough of public spending on which it has grown rich. But there is no indication that Pakistan will give up its support of the Afghan Taliban or the even more noxious Haqqani Network and other Islamist terrorist groups that are viewed by Pakistan’s army and its intelligence service, the ISI, as reliable proxies in Afghanistan, Kashmir, and beyond.

Nothing has changed today. Pakistan has been happy to pocket nearly $26 billion in U.S. aid between 2002 and 2012 and in return has provided some small concessions such as allowing NATO supplies to cross its territory (with some interruptions) and allowing CIA drones to target al-Qaeda kingpins (with some limitations). But fundamentally the two countries remain far apart on major issues such as Afghanistan, where the U.S. would like to see the continuation of a pro-Western, reasonably democratic regime and the Pakistanis in all likelihood are hoping for a Taliban takeover. Kerry’s visit will change nothing, no matter how many headlines it produces about a supposedly improved relationship.

Pic - "Look, Great Satan"s Pakistan trip might be all smiles and handshakes, but there’s a crisis brewing beneath the surface. "

al Qaeda Spring

When ObL - the original super villan creep was given 2 shots and a splash - seemed like al Qaedaism - was just as dead -aQ"s nihilistic ideology had been formally vanquished by the Arab Spring.

 At the time, in the summer of 2011, it seemed definitive: the region was in open revolt, with five revolutions in progress and two Arab leaders had already been toppled.

A new era had clearly begun and the genie of public protest could not, it seemed, be put back into the bottle. But now more than ever before, Al Qaeda seems to be making a comeback as governments lose control.

What a difference two years makes.

The Arab Spring has not been smooth. Three countries - Tunisia, Yemen and Libya - have staggered, slowly, towards some progress; but there has been a lot of blood along the way. Egypt is in an open revolt and the army has returned to run the state, as it was two years ago. Syria is in a much worse state - at best, caught in a stalemate, and at worst, it is in a slow spiral of death.

In this context, Al Qaeda is coming back with a vengeance - trying to learn from its previous mistakes, positioning itself as a service provider in conflict-ridden communities and establishing deep ties to the areas where it operates.

Iraq has experienced an awful summer of death so far, with 600 killed last month and hundreds more in the previous months. Al Qaeda is blamed for much of that violence. In Syria, Al Qaeda is wreaking havoc across the country as it seeks to "reunite" Syria and Iraq. Similar scenarios play out in Pakistan and Afghanistan, in Yemen and Mali.

But in every case, the resurgence is ominous both in the short-term and - as the mujahideen in Afghanistan in the 1980s showed - long-term.

The venomous ideology of Al Qaeda has not gone away. It has found fertile soil amid the postrevolutionary Arab world.

Pic - "As Algeria goes - so goes the region!"