Prominent cats have recently advocated the Great Satan using the military option on the table to bring Iran back to the table. Clear, timely communications like bunker busting swift spinning centrifuges or vaporizing IRRG HQ's.
"The Iranian people are smart enought to recognize the difference between an"The day after'" would be scary and dangerous. Anything less than a total regime killing, regime decapitating regime change and the Islamic Republic would unleash pure heck - from a surge of their own into Iraq to unleashing Hiz'B'Allah to act out anywhere in the world, and really bring jihad to the Great Satan.
invasion and an attack on their unpopular regime." Ex UN Ambassa John Bolton.
All true. Finger crossing aside, inaction unhappily calls into play how an Islamic Republic with deployable nukes would unleash pure heck.
Could the military option actually convince Iran to halt enrichment? An indirect approach?
"In strategy the longest way round is often the shortest way there; a direct
approach to the object exhausts the attacker and hardens the resistance by
compression, whereas an indirect approach loosens the defender's hold by
upsetting his balance."This is significant. Attacking the B'Kah Valley in Lebanon is totally legit - Security Council Resolutions negotiated, democratically achieved by veto powered members make a case for intervention and the indirect approach.
UNSCR 1559 calls Syria to split from and end its interference in Lebanon.
UNSCR 1701 calls for the disarmament of Hizballah
UNSCR 1701 calls for the disarmament of Hizballah
The Be Kah Valley is the hood for Hiz'B'Allah. The original sharia law loving super villian caliphate. The Great Satan claims just vengence as the 1st Battalon 8th Marines redeems a blood debt.
"Bekaa is Hezbollah's lifeline to the outside world (especially at a time of war). Moreover, any form of Syrian or Iranian assistance comes to HezbollahGeographically the B'Kah Valley looks like a magical panzer magnet to downtown Damascus and beyond. The Little Satan has extensive experience against Hiz'B'Allah in the July August War of 2006 . The Little Satan's Air Force recently dissed Syria's conventional wisdom to the Nth.
through this area. Hezbollah's training facilities are spread across the Bekaa -- facilities that are vital, especially to a nonstate actor like Hezbollah, dependent upon support from Damascus and Tehran."
Attacking the B'Kah Valley is absolutely is essential to stymie Syrian designs in Lebanon. Confidential sources indicate the BKV:
"...is far more important for Syria, not just because of the country's historicSuch a pre emptive, preventive wicki smack by the Great Satan would most likely be interpeted in Damascus that
role as the patron of Hezbollah, but also because of its ambitions for Lebanon".
Supporting Hizbollah carries a prohibitive price Syria could respond withIt would also have the happy effect of drawing a client of Russian Air Defenseless Systems out of Iran's orbit and marginalizing Syrian influence in Lebanon and Iraq. Completing the Great Satan's Encirclement of Iran, whose fiery rhetoric is begining to sound old, played, flat out freaked out and desperate.
missile attacks against Israeli cities, but given the dilapidated state of
Syria's army, the chances are greater that Assad will simply internalize the
message.
"Syrian ground forces deployed near the Lebanese border would be fair targets.
By eliminating 500 Syrian tanks--tanks that Syrian President Bashar Al Assad
needs to preserve his regime and presented with a choice between saving
Hezbollah and staying alive, Syria's dictator will choose the latter."
Removing a valued weapon like HBA out of Iran's armory will further unhinge the Mullah's who are increasingly isolated and may soon have their backs to the wall. The IR's economy would not be able to rebuild both the B'Kah and Hiz'B'Allah.
"Any course of military action carries risks, especially in the unpredictable ME.
The Six Day War presents a paradigm of an unwanted war that might never have
happend if a well placed strike at Syria had been undertaken."
Attacking the B'Kah Valley may be just the thing. The indirect approach.
Given the unsavory characteristics of the Bekaa Valley including Hezbollah fighters and the hardware they are probably harboring, any military action in the region should also target this valley.
ReplyDeleteNotwithstanding this, then perhaps, as you have suggested, attacking the valley directly may prove a prudent approach, albeit an “indirect” one.
Great site, really dig what you are doing here!
Good idea if we had the political will, but we don't. Our government is unwilling, at this time, to open another front in the diplomatic wars with our supposed allies.
ReplyDeleteOn top of that, the indirect approach would only give more time for Iran to develop their trump card of nuclear weapons. The clock is running out. I suspect our approach with Iran is narrowing quickly to a very direct bombing run.
The BKV is best left to the Israelis. The BKV is a bombing range for them already. Our best role in this would be to help the Israelis with ordinance and intelligence.
BH Liddelhart's strat/tact of the indirect approach could be applied in diplomacy.
ReplyDeletePolitical will is very much in favor of anything that could slow Iran down until a legitimate government came into power.
Zogby's recent poll (http://www.zogby.com/wf-Zogby-10-29-07.pdf) shows 52% of Americans expect action on Iran and 52% support pre emptive prevention against the mullahs.
Creating a PR campaign against HBA would not take very long in the Great Satan - especially since HBA uses their charming chant of 'Death to America' frequently and without modesty.
For serious diplomacy - destroying HBA - specifically denying them and Syria the B'Kah Valley would send a wonderful message to all parties in the ME - not just Syria and Iran.
The Arab League would be emboldened to straighten out and Lebanon would have a fighting chance.
I like the way you think, but I have to agree with Jeff, it won't happen. Too bad. Did you hear that Saudi Arabia is planning to come to Annapolis, and Syria might come too (only if they get their wants on the agenda). Washington hopes the Arabs will recognize Israel's right to exist. PFFFT. They won't even shake hands with the.
ReplyDeleteDebbie
Right Truth
http://www.righttruth.typepad.com
Annapolis may well be the last bit of Hudna before jihad.
ReplyDeleteSleight of hand, the indirect approach and legerdemain are at work. One by one the Great Satan is making honest efforts to confront the ME's 'rasion de retarde' for failed economies, failed states and failed leaders.
Especially if Annapolis fails - HBA in the B'Kah will become a very tempting - geographically and politically - isolated target.
This is the part that caught my attention:
ReplyDelete"Anything less than a total regime killing, regime decapitating regime change and the Islamic Republic would unleash pure heck."
Now that's going to take some domestic political will. I've advocated airstrikes against Iran all year. I still do. But some have pointed out that to really be rid of the problem will take a full-scale invasion, with scorched earth and all that.
In the meanwhile the Bakaa thing sounds like a plan. I'm still pretty pissed that Hezbollah and Iran were strengthened by the 2006 Mideast War...
You have a great blog here! I'm here from Heidianne's blog. I'll be back.
ReplyDeleteBomb 'em. Now.
ReplyDeleteWe need to reduce their nuclear program to a smoldering crater for the world to see. They don't like it?
ReplyDeleteTough...