China's got game - a seat at the UN Sec Council and a veto for sale. China is hip -fully crunk with high tech - able to shoot down capitalist satellites and launch more than astronauts.
A mean scary military machine is de rigeur for the hood. After all she's got nuclear NoKo on the south 40, Caliphates crunk up next door in nuclear Pakistan, borders with both nuclear Russia and nuclear India. China could launch a world of hurt at any chicanery she doesn't cotton to.
So why is China's new Navy built around amphibious invasions?
China’s naval forces include 72 principal combat warships, some 58 attack submarines, about 50 medium and heavy amphibious lift vessels, and approximately 41 coastal missile patrol craft. China also fields over 700 attack aircraft.
President Hu's '5 No's' explain everything. Perfectly clear what will unleash this armada:
a formal declaration of independence or a military alliance by Taiwan with a foreign power, or foreign intervention in Taiwan's internal affairs. Delays in resumption of cross-Strait dialogue, and an unwillingness to negotiate on the basis of 'one China'. Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction internal unrest or turmoil on Taiwan
China is totally tripping over Taiwan. Long considered a rebellious province that would one day be welcomed back in to Mother China (ala Hong Kong) China has a jealous eye towards her democratic, successful, rich, little sister. And a crazy intolerance for a hip, free and fun sister (who hasn't bothered anybody) to be independent. Or a homie of the Great Satan.
The Great Satan recently toured the Far East with stops in Japan, SoKo and China. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates got the red carpet treatment with an especial gig at Beijing's Forbidden Palace.
The Great Satan pointed out how uncool the unannounced satellte shoot was, how provocative Chinese subs stalking one of the Great Satan's precious regime changers like Kitty Hawk could be. The Great Dragon and the Great Satan agreed to agree and built a magical hotline to avoid such disses in the future.
"We discussed the need to move forward and deepen our military-to-military dialogue, including that on nuclear policy strategy and doctrine."
How ironic that the super friends hotline wasn't online when the Great Satan toured Tiawan the next month with a sweet best friends for ever missile deal that could annihilate amphibious assaults.
China let everyone know she was flat out freaked that the Great Satan would honour an agent of free thinking like the Dalai Lama. Zhang Qingli, the new hand picked Communist Party secretary for recently crushed Tibet made sure the hotline was online this time:
"We are furious"
While many explanations are offered for the recent retardedness at Hong Kong - Is Taiwan the reason Red China freaked out and acted like a dissed ho with the USS Kitty Hawk?
The Great Satan is proud of that.
It is less than entertaining to see a territorial giant act like a child denied its fruit roll up, but shouldn't we start taking China seriously when pop up between our destroyers and wave around nuclear sparklers? But it ain't about missiles, is it? They could gut this country with a wave of call slip, and in every strategy of war it's smart to hobble your dance partner before sending them hurtling into the stands. That's where our attention ought to be - protecting ourselves from the economic grenade they've rolled under the bus.
ReplyDeleteTaiwan - the easy lite strip on a box of atomic matches. We've declared that we'll be there when they're overrun - which means that China can pick the time to test America. If we can't keep our resolve battling those that are hunting us since 9/11 - will Americans give any thought to sending our troops to defend Taiwan against a foe far larger and better armed? I don't see it happening - in fact - I don't see America doing a damn thing to confront those that declare war on us. We're all warmongered out - and after Vietnam and Korea, I'll be damned if we're going to run out to defend another country that doesn't have oil!
It's an election year - I'm asking Santa for an oil refinery and a couple square miles of pristine Alaskan promise! Can Chinese missiles find me there?
Great site.
ReplyDeleteAs long as China has a market for their goods in the US, Taiwan in probably safe. And as long as China thinks we will stand with Taiwan, it is probably safe.
I get the impression that China, for its demonstrations of prowess now and then, is kind of a bumbling fool. Just a feeling I get.
Shane-
ReplyDeleteChina desperately needs us to buy their crap. As long as we're doing commerce, we're not at war.
As far as the sub popping up between our ships, it makes me think they want to try to engage in a cat and mouse game ala "Hunt for Red October" to use for propaganda for their own citizens.
We could easily HELP defend Taiwan from the air only (they need to do their part too). Just drop blu-108's, 24/7 over their fleet and along the Chinese coast. Of course, it's the political will that's missing here, isn't it? It was missing with Truman not letting McCarthur loose. It was missing by letting the Soviets have WWII booty (much to Patton's dismay). And it was missing in Vietnam for a host of reasons.
But the military always wins, when allowed to.
Hell, look at how fast we can unleash industry, when the call comes in? If the Chinese choose to stop exporting, with a reduction of regulation, and taxes, and the necessity, the USA can be wholly self-sufficient.
(Ra Ra Ra, waves flag, etc,etc)
"retardedness at Hong Kong" gotta love it!!!
ReplyDeleteTest your enemy, wait for a response, receive none or a weak one; you can then take it a little further in the future.
The Kitty Hawk hullabaloo is a prime example of how not to react to a sorry, sad move by China.
These guys are some very dangerous people, but they will never entirely hold the hearts and minds of those they abuse, torture, kill and rule with an iron fist. That of course does not mean it wouldn't be an extremely nasty experience.
china will learn that people fight poorly for something that is not theirs. and soemthing that belongs "to the people" - or more correctly to the party - is unlikely to stir the hearts and minds of those fighting. these people are downtrodden and while they will face the executioner if they don't fight - what are they facing if they do.
ReplyDeletegreat post, courtney. thanks.
Anyone who has seen the heartwrenching documentary by National Geographic about North Korea and how that government has turned human beings into pliant pets who grovel at the framed picture of the Great Leader will begin to understand that slaves have no choice. Their reality is created for them, and for all we know they believe Americans, and in fact the Taiwanese are fanged monsters who feast on babies.
ReplyDeleteFirst war begins as a public relations campaign, then it moves into political and economic warfare. That's where we are now. Don't trust to slaves to rein back a tempestuous government.
first off, that Chinese girl is kinda hott.
ReplyDeleteNow what was I saying, Oh yeah ...
For all of its' size, population and military might, China has some kind of inferiority complex. I think Taiwan is safe ... unless of course the Democrats take over the Whitehouse.
Great job, Courtney! I always dig your posts.
ReplyDeleteI read about China and the Hong Kong incident today at LAT:
"Chinese officials have not yet provided an explanation for denying access to Hong Kong, and top U.S. military leaders have not spoken directly with the Chinese military.
The denial of access for the Kitty Hawk was later reversed. But by that time, the carrier group was already en route to Japan after long-planned holiday reunions between American service members and their families had been ruined."
This is great power politics, and you're right: China could launch a world of hurt.
Thanks for the stimulating read!
China will wait a little longer. Why rock the boat when with every economic deal ( from Sudan and Mozambique to even Iraq and Iran, the make the dealing nations say in each treaty that all partes to the treaties agree that China owns Taiwan and has every right to handle the internal affairs of it's people as it sees fit. They made a naval deal ( for a naval base on Pakistani coast) and Pakistan agreed to support China if there were ever a problem over this issue. Same with every nation they deal with. WHy are they still doing it other than to lay a smack down on Taiwan within 5 years or so. I think they will wait at least 2 more years though as right now they are very vulnerable and their ICBM's can only reach our west coast and Hawaii. But they have 5 nuclear subs just about done. All 5 will be completed by 2009 ( early). That means in 2009 they can part their subs off both our coasts and say Screw you America, Taiwan is ours - you want to risk NY or Washington over OUR territory!
ReplyDeleteThat is the future I see as they are ready willing and soon to be very able to take out Taiwan.
What will we do other than accept maybe a few hundred thousand or more refugees?
Now after Taiwan there's a problem. What they do after that is the key.
We should be able to make an educated guess as to China's future intentions with all that naval force projection and not to mention their ASAT program, they could as you said, "launch a world of hurt".
ReplyDeleteQuestion: In relation to the ASAT (anti-satellite effort) program how can it not be directed at the U.S. when there is nothing else to shot at?
They have continued to pursue the research for many years now. Why? A policy choice driven by perceived American vulnerability in this area?
Excellent posting!
Excellent points everyone.
ReplyDeletePerhaps the hedge against 'Red' China is our quite blatant consumerism. After all, no one consumes like the Great Satan. The missile deal to Taiwan was a laugh - short and medium range missiles for an island nation is for one thing only - to repel an invasion.
Shane, deploying troops may not matter - OTOH, the link under 'Great Satan toured Taiwan' bit is significant. Great point about getting serious about protecting our tender portions.
YJM - welcome to GsGf. Thank you for sharing ideas, America isn't helpless as you pointed out. If all the Hot Wheels and Barbies and guitar amps and lawn mowers were shut off tomorrow - within 90 days or less - America would be cranking them out like doughnuts. Perhaps China needs us more than we need super cheapie things.
Blandly! "...will never entirely hold the hearts and minds of those they abuse, torture, kill and rule with an iron fist..." Yes! Alas, in the computer age you also get a computerized police state in many places. Dissent with unfree regimes will be a problem until China joins the Democracy club. It must be a very hard sell to decieve the Mainland into thinking democracy is ok for SoKo and Taiwan - but not for Chinese.
Heidianne - 'belongs to the people' That's the trick isn't it? The Great Satan's universal appeal is a lot like what America said earlier this month with the Nonnegotiable demands of human dignity: "The rule of law, limits on state power, free speech, religious liberty, equal justice, property rights, tolerance of difference and respect for women. These values are a source of success for nations across the world".
Paul - Thank you for stopping by. Distracted? Sweet! The old tricks are the best right? GsGf knows that guys tend to be, well, guys. "Hotties on deck and fellers in check." Make sure you check GsGf's weekly EyEcAnDy RatIoN.
Hi Donald - Thanks for the LA Times bit. You are 100% correct - there is more here than meets the eye. The " U.S. military leaders have not spoken directly with the Chinese military" bit is significant - the super friends hotline wasn't online.
Lodispoto - Thank you for coming by. "...lay a smack down on Taiwan within 5 years or so..." That is a very scary scenerio. China may not be willing to risk all out nuclear devastation just to get Taiwan. Perhaps their conventional Naval build up and freak out over Taiwan's ship killing missiles is significant. China may prefer Taiwan intact and a place in the world order as opposed to totally changing it for everyone for the worse. I conceed your point though - who the heck really knows what despots plan and hope for?
American Interests - Hi Otto. "...how can the ASAT not be directed at the U.S. when there is nothing else to shot at?" That is key. Unverified sources gave a very different account of Far East reaction to the Great Satan's 2003 'Shock and Aweshucks' Iraq attack. Unlike Western media, who were NOT impressed - NoKo and China were severely distressed with American superiority in space and the ability to hit anything they wanted anywhere or anytime they wanted.
gsgf, you're brilliant. Where have you been? We need great thinkers like you. Superb writing and intelligence.
ReplyDeleteGreat site, I'll be adding you to my blogroll.
ReplyDelete(Exciting, I know)
Girlfriend: The U.S. was really P-O'd at China for refusing our ship port call, and who can blame us. Families were waiting to see these men and women. China is NOT our friend and it's high time we acknowledge this.
ReplyDeleteAnother wonderful article, I love reading everything your write.
Debbie
Right Truth
http://www.righttruth.typepad.com
smooth - Hey! Thanks for coming by. Where Have I been? – Generally kept in a climate controlled environment, surrounded by smart people, au currant military leaders, ex collegiate faculty, avionic experts and co dependent personalities that control and dominate in any situation – business, social or leisure.
ReplyDeleteYJM - Thank you! It's always great to be added.
Debbie - your sources agree with mine.
Debbie runs an awesome site called 'Right Truth" Everyone should check it out daily - it can be found on the GrEaT sAtAn'S HoOtChIeS links.