Lame Hawk?

While electile dysfunction devours huge bits of American attention - certain regimes and their fanboys pay attention too. For years it was widely understood in the ME that Great Satan didn't act out militarily in an election year - or even the year before an election year. The Lame Duck syndrome.



Only since 911 though - it hasn't been so clear cut. Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed the general manager of Al -Arabiya television points out the Arab street has fell for the old Great Satan is safe as milk election year jazz before.

"Saddam Hussein was excluding the possibility of such a war, relying on the
views of Arab television analysts. They told him not to worry about the threats
and the massing of fleets. They assured him that anti-war demonstrations, public
opinion surveys, and the approaching end of the President's first term would
prevent war. How wrong they were! "

This is significant. Despite sexy Syrian risque rapprochment out reaches there is a deadly chance that Great Satan's politics aside - she could act out more like a hawk - and not so lame either.

A group, like Hezbollah did in occupying West Beirut, could upset the balance
and carry out a coup against a regime thinking that the American player is
preoccupied with the elections and the President is spending his day drinking
tea and packing his bags in preparation for returning to his state, Texas.

The second prevailing theory is that the United States has become a weak
state like Mauritania, and the time is appropriate today to punish the Americans
by serving Iran and advancing on the ground, confident that no one will do
anything.

In other words, a misunderstanding of the work mechanism in American politics
encourages adventures and promotes chaos. This is what happened with former
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein when he occupied Kuwait on the morning of 2
August 1990. He thought that he was permitted to fill the vacuum. Such incorrect
theories have led to serious tragedies.

Serious tragedies like a regime killing regime change launched at several opponents at once - especially if they feel there is a chance to act out with out restraint or even deliver an 'October surprise'

The Sept '07 Study by the Director of the School of Oriental and African Studies’ Centre for
International Studies and Diplomacy paints an interesting pic of what is sweetly hanging out ready to act out:

In recent years, hugely increased funding for military technology has taken
"smart bombs" to a new level. New "bunker-busting" conventional bombs weigh
only 250lb. According to Boeing, the GBU-39 small-diameter bomb "quadruples"
the firepower of US warplanes, compared to those in use even as recently as
2003.

A single stealth or B-52 bomber can now attack between 150 and 300
individual points to within a metre of accuracy using the global positioning
system.8 One B2 bomber dropped 80 500lb bombs on separate targets in 22
seconds in a test flight.

Using just half the available force, 10,000 targets could be attacked
almost simultaneously. This strike power alone is sufficient to damage Iranian
political, military, economic and transport capabilities. Such a strike would take "shock and awe" to a new level and leave Iran with few if any conventional military capabilities to block the straights of Hormuz or provide conventional military support to insurgents in Iraq.

The US air force can hit the last-known position of Iranian military units, political
leaders and supposed sites of weapons of mass destruction. One can be sure that, if
war comes, George Bush will not want to stand accused of using too little force and
allowing Iran to fight back. "Global Strike" means that, without any obvious signal,
what was done to Serbia and Lebanon can be done overnight to the whole of Iran.

It is likely that the United States would select a much more wide-ranging set of
attacks on Iran, since they have strategic interests in destroying Iranian
military power that go far beyond preventing Iranian acquisition of the
bomb.

At 80 pages, the Sept 07 study is healthy - and a very detailed read. Electile dysfunction aside, Great Satan got claws. Like a hawk.