Meir Javandanfar - co author of the Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran and chief analyst at meepas reveals more about Supreme Leader and his Gaza Strippers
"The recent flare up in Gaza is causing more anger in the Iranian government. There have been several demonstrations, including the burning down of the Benetton shop in Tehran and recruitment of suicide bombers. The Iranian government has also embarked on setting up a tribunal to try Israeli officials and has called for more stringent boycotting of companies who do business with Israel.
These demonstrations and calls for help are directed by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. He is ultimately in charge of Iran's policy, and as such acts would not be under taken without his permission. There are a number of reasons behind his current strategy:
1. To pressure Western governments to put an end to Hamas's destruction. Khamenei is trying to say to them that we don't have a border with Israel, but our anger should be taken into consideration, because we are a new power in the region and our opinion should be taken seriously.
2. There is also the question of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Iran sees both of them as trying to muscle in on Gaza, an area which Tehran considers as its sole sphere of influence. To Tehran's anger, the Egyptians are not budging. Khamenei is hoping that through public gestures such as setting up courts to try Israeli officials, the Egyptian public would feel encouraged, and thus would place pressure on Mubarak to help Hamas.3. Iran is an Islamic Republic. Compared to all of the chants we used to shout as children (Death to America, USSR, Saddam,) the only one Iran is still holding true to is 'Death to Israel.' Without it, the regime would lose the last revolutionary DNA which holds its identity together.
4. Iran is trying to be the leader of the Islamic world. Khamenei believes that the majority of the Islamic world is angry about what is happening in Gaza, and he is right. He sees the Muslim government's silence as being against the wishes of locals. By saying what he believes Muslims feel world wide, he is trying to be their representative. There is of course no free lunch. In return his hope is that they will get their government to back Iran's nuclear program.
The one person who has the most to gain is President Ahmadinejad. He has just submitted a controversial bill to the Majlis to cut state subsidies. This will make him even more unpopular.
The Gaza affair is a gift to him, which he will use to distract the Iranian people from the economic pain which is about to hit them."
Meir Javandanfar
art - Iranian Postage Stamp
Research and development by courtneyme109
The questions I have about Iran and the war in Gaza are these:
ReplyDeleteI can see how Iran can use its "influence" (diploma-speak for "knee-capping") with Hiz'B'Allah to launch a northern offensive against Israel through Lebanon, and how Syria would want to join in the fun. What I can't see is how they can pressure Jordan to join in. If the Palestinians living in Jordan rise up to declare their righteous anger at the Hashemite royalty, I see civil war rather than joining with Iran. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, yes -- those places are poised for revolution, so the leadership will happily send their most unhappy and disenfranchised citizens to die in a glorious war against Israel.
But Jordan? I haven't read anything lately that would indicate a huge amount of dissatisfaction with the monarchy. Unless...
Do you think it's possible that Jordan would join the fray as an attempt to reclaim Judea and Samaria (aka "West Bank")? The monarchy is still pretty p*ssed over Arafat's (Fatah's) assassination attempt back in the early '70's. Perhaps they would "join in", moving their troops through the Palestinian Authority (and incidentally sweeping up as much of the Fatah leadership as possible) and attempt to retake Jerusalem? When they are defeated, they are pushed back into Jordan, carrying as many Fatah supporters as possible, leaving Judea and Samaria relatively Palestinian free and ready to be officially claimed as territory. (No longer "occupied" but "owned", since under international law Israel can claim it and however much of Jordan it can hold following a defensive war against an aggressor nation.)
Hmmm...
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A tribunal to try Israeli officials? lol. I suspect the Iranian leadership team is imploding at the sight of those IAF F-15 Eagles doing what they do best unimpeded ...
ReplyDeleteI have wondered why Hizbollah hasn't started to fire rockets into Israel. In 2006, Hamas stepped up rocket attacks to help Hizbollah. Can it be that the 2006 war damaged Hizbollah to the point that they can't effectively attack Israel? I heard that between 15,000 and 20,000 fighters were killed.
ReplyDeletePlus Hizbollah has been very active in South America. This being the case, they may be overstretched.
Iran is calling the shots in Gaza, not Syria. And Iran is going to wake up to the fact that they aren't the "Great Power" they believe they are.
Iran is hype and covert ops. If Iran thinks their 8 year war with Iraq makes them capable of standing up to anyone...let their delusions run a spell. If they push Israel too hard, Israel has an answer Teheran and Khameini can't match and won't be able to stomach.
ReplyDeleteI hope Israel did savage Hezbollah sufficiently; I hope they ravage the living crap out of Hamas.
Excellent analysis. Thanks for finding the gem.
ReplyDeleteYou know, Isreal tried the ol' land for peace deal and look where it got them. They need to win now. They need to eradicate Hamas on their doorstep.