Poker Face

A tanz muzak techno homage to way back in the last millennium, Lady GaGa's "Poker Face" is blitzing through Great Satan's Hit Parade and nat'l dance floors just like General Patton's rowdy panzers sliced through broken, desperately defeated last ditch conscripts led by wicked Wehrmacht's elite truppen and annihilated das Dritten Reich time Deutschland.

Lyrically hooking lines with suitable suitors - the tune plays it like poker - a game of bluff and other things.

"Can't read my, Can't read my No he can't read my poker face"

In a way this could be applied to an oh snap analysis of recent events regarding

Little Satan's shout out that Iranian neutronic imperium imperils her - to the point of actually launching an massive assault.

Dmitri Jevec shares au courant intell that calls the bluff

"U.S. nixed Israel's request for bunker-busters

Thursday, 14 August 2008

The United States rejected a recent Israeli request for advanced detection systems as well as bunker-busters capable of locating and destroying Iranian nuclear weapons sites.

Israeli officials said the administration was persuaded by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that such systems could be used to facilitate an Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.

Full piece Here.

U.S. denies Israel's request for tanker aircraft [and permission to fly through Iraqi airspace]

Thursday, 21 August 2008

....This marked the second U.S. refusal of an Israeli request for military systems in about a month. In July, the administration rejected an Israeli request for advanced bunker-busters and underground detection systems. The White House was also said to have denied Israel permission to use Iraq's air space for an attack on Iran.

Full piece Here.

Iraqi airspace 'must not be used in strike'

July 14, 2008

....According to a senior official, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari "conveyed to the US ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, on Friday a message from the government that Iraq doesn't accept the use of Iraqi space by Israeli jets," that could launch aerial attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Full piece Here.


" The risks (capture of Israeli pilots by the Iranians, Iranian retaliation against Israel itself etc.) are substantial and the chances of significant and lasting damage to the Persian nuclear programme are not good."

"Even the online wagering site intrade.com puts the odds of an Little Satan and or American strike against Iran before 31 Dec 2010 at 31% an attack WILL occur, 69% odds that an attack WILL NOT occur.

"Anyone who is quite convinced that the Israelis and or Americans will attack Iran before that time can place a wager at the intrade.com site and potentially win a substantial amount of money."

"To sum up, the logistics of an Israeli manned bombing mission to Iran are extraordinarily difficult."

And extraordinarily possible.

SSP Working Paper PDF entitled

"Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities"

Trekking into and out of Iran, refueling and avoiding airspaces are well within the IAF's capabilities.

Obliterating the three essential centers for a nuclear device requires 84 tons of bunker busting weaponry of which IAF currently has plenty.

Also, the Strike Package may include ballistic missiles like Jericho III.

Like Center for Strategic Studies "Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities "

Jane‘s estimated that the missile has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers and a 1,000-kilogram warhead. This estimate is based largely on a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency estimate of the launch capability of the Shavit booster that Israel tested on September 19, 1988.

42 Jericho III's armed with a 750 kg Warhead would be required to annihilate all three critical nodes

Those are all tactical considerations.

Any strike would have regional - strategic consequences.

Little Satan may be playing out a "Grand Bargain" of her own.

Recently proclaimed welcome anytime at the Kremlin by Vlad himself, Little Satan may have bewitched the Commonwealth into delaying and stalling the delivery of the dreadred super future air defense system - the sinister S300.

Since Commonwealth cats are starting to realize that a crunk and disorderly hood like CentCom and China developing and deploying projectiles may not be so cool after all, and a Great Power play by Commonwealth may actually befriend Little Satan from time to time - especially if Great Satan thinks 'even handedly" in the rowdy rocket rich ME.

Trashing Iran's sensitive sites may involve other strikes on multiple enemies. Hiz'B'Allah could get a dose to keep their heads down or taken head on and Syria could wake up on that wonderful day to find her entire Air Force annihilated on the ground.

Tiny tiny surgical precision airstrikes by Little Satan haven't caused any response - at all.

Little Satan hit Iraq right in the midst of the horrible Iran Iraq war.

No Iraqi response.

Litttle Satan hit Syria at Al Quba. No Syrian reaction form a Syrian reactor.

Little Satan strikes Sudan and destroys Iranian Fajr 5 missiles complete with launchers enroute to either the Strip or Hiz'B'Allah's Sinai cadre.

No Iranian response.

Any air blitz on Iran would be a different story - so why pussyfoot around?

This is significant.

A strategic realignment of the ME may very well hinge on a "Respectable amount" of damage to Iran.

David Samuels gives probably the best rationale for Little Satan calling everyone's bluff

"The inevitability of a future Palestinian state is the most powerful argument for the inevitability of an Israeli attack on Iran—unless the Iranian nuclear program is stopped by other means.

"Taking out the Iranian nuclear program is the one obvious avenue by which Israel can turn the debilitating drip-drip-drip of territorial giveaways and international condemnation into a convincing appearance of strength.

"Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities is the surest way for Israel to restore the image of strength and unpredictability that made it valuable to the United States after 1967 while also eliminating Iran as a viable partner for America's favor. "

The fact that this approach may be the international-relations equivalent of keeping your boyfriend by bushwacking the other cute girl he likes is an indicator of the difference betwixt romance and alliances between states—and hardly an argument for why it won't work.

Little Satan knows threats inherent in giving up huge bits of West Bank will be greatly augmented or diminished depending on how a Palestine is born.

A Palestinian state born as the result of Little Satan's feckless weakness recalls old school Vulcan Def Sec Rumsfeld admonishment that "weakness is Provocative - a way bigger danger than a sweet little baby Palestine born at the height of Little Satan's crazy, unpredictable combat bona fides.

"Ariel Sharon was able to withdraw from Gaza because he defeated Arafat and crushed the second intifada. Desperate to rid themselves of the bad PR and the demographic threat posed by maintaining Israel's hold over the West Bank,

Little Satan has yet to find a victory big enough to allow a retreat.

She wont accept any threats posed by images of a defeated Israel being forced to withdraw from Hebron and Nablus by triumphant Palestinian militias backed by Iran.

Pic "Check this hand cause I'm marvelous"