"...Pakistan’s continued provision of a safe haven for the Taliban leadership in Quetta and for its forces in North Waziristan. Until this changes, it is hard to see how anything resembling voctory can be achieved..."
Oh, it is so! All the cool kids knew eons ago the AF part of AFPAK is about as good as it can get - until (unless) certain 'no go zones' across the magical Durand line are violently xform'd into combat zones.
And that means a solution in AFPAK may be decided in the hallowed Halls of Rawalpindi. And that's the problem.
You can take the cat out of ISI but you can't take ISI out of the cat. General Kayani is hot to remain 'India Centric" instead of fiddling about on writ of state safaris for 7th century mindsets in sovereign free sovereign FATA turf like North Waziristan.
And to be fair - India's 'Cold Start' plan is totally hot!
Realizing 72 hours is the max before foreign peace mongers intervene with cease fire jank to an unwithstandable level, "Cold Start" starts by forsaking blitzing a catastrophic blow to Pakistan like splitting her in half, Indian military ops would make and take shallow territorial gains, o, say 50–80 kilometers deep, that could be sweetly dangled as post conflict treats to extract concessions from Land of The Pure.
This is significant. Cause General K is worried about the wrong thing.
Forget wicked India holding subcontinental peace 'hostage' to whatever random chaotic activities perped by non state actor outers, with or without an ISI assist. Forget the Curse of Kashmir (sure - Pakistan can't even influ their own tribal regions - any serious person seriously hot for granting Land of the Pure yet another uncontrollable piece of real estate?!)
The real threat to Land of the Pure is Great Satan's hot desires to force an event to conclusion with certain drone magnets in North Waziristan!
"...The one thing that would certainly lead to the collapse of the Pakistani state and an immense surge in extremist and terrorist strength would be if the Pakistani Army were to split and parts of it were to mutiny against the alliance with America.
"...U.S. ground raids into Pakistan would risk precisely this disastrous outcome. In fact, after all the talk about the danger of state collapse and a m"Hammedistic revolution in Pakistan, it would be the U.S. itself that would bring these events about.
Dang. What a shame.
As the most risible fakebelieve 'nation/state' concocted since Great Britain gave up empire to focus on upgrading Rock n Roll to Rock to Metal, Land of the Pure's history has essentially been one self inflicted heartache after another ('cept of course natural disasters that seem to periodically strike a country that is half and half floodplains and mountain tops).
Great Satan's only client new clear army with a nation state attached collapsing into an enemy new clear army with a nation state attached - outflanked on every side - going down - all the way down - in an orgy of self inflicted bloodletting, flames and ruin with Great Satan and NATO conducting pantie raids on one side and Indian army battle groups ready to Cold Start on the other.
And all because General K failed to do his gig.
Pic - "2011 could de ja vu 1971"
I wonder how many nuclear bombs it would take to surround Waziristan with a radioactive curtain? Or at least, at the border with Afghanistan. The border region is worthless, nobody lives there, its not a legitimate trade route. Then again, those people are so crazy they would waltz right in the middle of it for the materials to make dirty bombs, so maybe its not such a good idea after all.
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