"A military strike would in my opinion be worse than anything else ... It
would transform the Middle East region into a ball of fire."
Scary scary vibes form UN's chief Nuke cat at the IAEA in a recent interview with Al Arabiya TV. While Dr El-Baradei's bona fides fronting International Agencies is well known - yet how authentic are his psychic abilities?
And exactly why is he transforming into a prophet? Shouldn't he be like proving beyond a shadow of a doubt whether Persia is oath breaking on International Treaties brokered in good faith?
If proving Iran is safe as milk why all the 'Fireball" jazz?
Even worse - if Iran is indeed oath breaking then why would such an august bearucrat suck up to an international outcast regime that are enrichenly industriously breaking oaths he is supposed to defend?
"Ball of Fire" is awful scary
"And who can predict with certitude how Iran would respond?
Would Iran attack Israel with rockets, inviting retaliation with Jericho
and cruise missiles from Israeli submarines? Would she close the Gulf with suicide-boat attacks on tankers and U.S. warships?
With oil at $135 a barrel, Israeli air strikes on Iran would seem to ensure a 2,000-point drop in the Dow and a world recession.
What would Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria do? All three are now in indirect negotiations with Israel. U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq could be made by Iran to pay a high price in blood that could force the United States to initiate its own air war in retaliation, and to finish a war Israel had begun."
That kind of quizing is a lot like easing into a hot bubble bath after a super fun day of horsebacking, swimming and a trek to the Mall. Old school gradual escalation thinking.
"Ball of Fire" is totally new school.
The ME stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean - about 25 diff nations, fiefdoms, kindoms and by happy chance - Great Satan's Central Command.
Would the Land of the Pure hop into "Ball of Fire"? Facing down Talibanistanis' on one side and checking for India over their shoulder - it could be said Pakistan is fully booked.
Or Algeria and Turkey? Outraged by Khomeinist Iran's suddenly rendered retarded nuke chicanery wise? A wicki smack on a regime that buddied up with T groups that tormented both for ages, really drive them batty?
Unsexy, unfree Basharopolis - totally secular - may decide to hold up on Operation "Ball of Fire" choosing to sit this one out. The regimes survival would be at stake including personal assets. Dead mullahs don't donate.
Same thing with HAMAS and the Mohammedist Brotherhood. While undoubtedly appreciative of all the nothing but luv love Tehran has sweetly contribed - survival; may actually be a surprising option for a freely elected suicide regime and semi outlaw jihadis in Pyramidland over allegiance to generous yet foreign ideology control freaks.
Hiz'B'Allah has a world wide reach - including sleepy sleepers in Great Satan even - tons of rockets and a carte blanche billion buck bling from Iran. HBA totally takes direction from Tehran and being a suicide body part collecting death cult/resistence movement might actually welcome a Gotterdammerung.
HBA may be at the height of prestige and control with virtual veto powers over any thing tiny tiny tormented Lebanon could devise.
Kinda iffy if the balloon goes up if HBA will throw it all away in a sha heed blaze or back off entirely if Persia is regime changed.
Maybe - too big an if. HBA makes a case by their Khomeineist creation for annihilation. Plus an especial blood debt owed to Great Satan that has no statue of limitations.
Or at least more pressing concerns like finding new funding amid a heavily armed, refreshingly emboldened ME that shares little sympathy for the mullahs 1st foreign creation.
As the IRGC laid out a while back - the options for retaliation would be like firing off "...fire balls." Revo Guard Deputy Commander Hejazi pointed out
"The era of hit-and-run is over. Possible beginners of any
threat against Iran should notice that Iran reserves the right to
determine the scale and scope of response to any threat.
"Enemies of Iran should know that they would face Iranians' Iron fist in
case of making any mistake against the country. Iranians would destroy
enemies' glass palace with their fire balls"
Options like shutting down Persian Gulf - a strategic economic plan to hold oil hostage from dependent nations. It would also have the unhappy effect of making Iran the real loser.
Nearly 80% of Iran's budget is driven by oil that would need the Gulf open to realise.
Strangling the straits would be more like self asphixiation. 40% of Iran's food stuff is imported - through the Gulf. And so is about 48% - almost half - of Iran's refined petrol.
Mining it shut - wouldn't mean very much any way. Great Satan could open it up again anytime.
"11K Missiles a minute" may not mean too much - even an immodest sweet petite air blitz by Little Satan would take out huge swathes of Iranian Air Defense Systems.
OTOH a desperate WMD witched up unlucky lucky shot at Gulf oil installations, densely populated capitalistic fiefdoms or even Little Satan may indeed transform into a "Fire Ball".
Especially for Tehran.
A Comprehensive Strike annihilating Iranian missile sites (your choice - mobile or permanent) entirely is entirely certain to be on the Target List.
Anti Surge Afghanistan and Iraq would certainly surge - for a while - Persian Invaders could ignite the Arab Street - draw attention (as Sharansky taught "Fear Societies" require external enemies to survive) from Little Satan as the raison d'retarde for all the ME's ills.
Plus Afghanistan and Iraq are chock full of the most high tech, humanitarian, experienced killers in history are in the house large and in charge, fully crunk liable to be reinforced fast and easy.
Anti Surge would be "Very short and very exciting"
Raise Cain in Turkey? Turkey actually deploys a real military and though Iran could surge for a short time would it really help the regime?
A surge for sweet little oiled up sweetie pies like the 'Stans, or Azerbaijan to disrupt or capture pipelines may usher in Russia who is suddenly rich and prob looking to redeem the ancient Red Army's spiritual sons damaged goods image after Afghanistan and the first two out of three Chechnya's.
A case could be made that a Comprehensive Strike that killed off the regime - or at the least wounded it to death could totally deploy the most awesome of all regime changes - from the inside out.
Iranians may not be such affectionados for self inflicted misery on behalf of a regime that fields a Fashion Posse, Secret Police and even voltigeur religious police. Most of the pop is actually quite young - 80% under 40 yo and are experts on how uncool, unfree Supreme Leaders and their tripod support fan club and co operating/competing clubs hang.
"Transform the Middle East into a Ball of Fire"
Maybe that should read "Transform the Mullahs Regime into a Ball of Fire.