Paki Coup

Land of the Pure is a magical place where anything can happen! Girls can learn to fly jets only 69 miles a way from where Pakistani Talibani brutally beat girls for promotional vids.

A recent regime change at the ballot box turned a suspect corrupt Mr 10% into the nation's democratically bona fided leader.

Pakistan's motto could very well be something like "Hey ya'll! Watch this!"

Hooked up with a super paranoid paranormalnoia - Land of the Pure could get the old school coup d'etat maneuver

"A military coup is unfolding in Pakistan, but, this time, there is no rumbling of tanks on the streets of Islamabad. Instead, it seems the military is using a new strategy for regime change in Pakistan, one that will have adverse consequences for Western troops deployed in Afghanistan."

"A year after rogue elements of Pakistan's intelligence services disrupted Indian-Pakistani peace talks by staging the Mumbai massacre, the democratically elected government of President Asif Zardari is facing a putsch from within its ranks, engineered by the men who run Pakistan's infamous military-industrial complex."

"The men who wish to replace Mr. Zardari represent the religious right-wing backers of the Taliban and al-Qaeda, adding a new obstacle in Barack Obama's war effort in Afghanistan. A change of guard in Pakistan will also place Allied troops at a higher risk of attack from a Taliban that will get unimpeded access to safe havens across the international border."

"In the West's war against terrorism, Mr. Zardari is probably the only politician in Pakistan who has the guts to identify the cancer of jihadi extremism and order the Pakistani army to root it out. With reluctance, the army has complied, but only half-heartedly. With him gone, it's almost a certainty that Canada and the United States, as well as Afghanistan and India, will once more face the deception and fraud that became the hallmark of Pervez Musharraf's military regime."

"For years, the Pakistani army received billions of dollars in direct American aid while it backed the Taliban and staged faked armed encounters to deceive the Pentagon."

"The army views the government's efforts at peace with both Afghanistan and India not only with suspicion but also with alarm. Peace with India would undermine the very raison d'être of Pakistan's massive military.

"The army's patience with Mr. Zardari ran out in October, when the U.S. Congress passed the Kerry-Lugar bill that promised billions in aid to Pakistan, but with a crucial caveat: The money would go through the channels of the civilian administration and if the military interfered with the democratic process or bullied the politicians and the judiciary, the Americans would halt all aid to the military.

"The generals were in an uproar. Having lived their entire lives with a sense of entitlement that rivalled medieval caliphs and emperors, the men in uniform started a campaign to dislodge Mr. Zardari and his ambassador in Washington, Husain Haqqani – the authors, they said, of their misfortune.

"Addicted to the billions in U.S. aid that have made them among the wealthiest in their impoverished country, Pakistan's generals are in a Catch-22. If they overthrow the government, they risk losing the manna from America. If they do nothing, they lose their veto over government policymaking, domestic as well as foreign.

"Stung by this loss of power, the generals have asked the pro-Taliban media to whip up an anti-U.S. and anti-India frenzy in the country, claiming that Mr. Zardari has sold out to the Americans and the Indians.

"Mr. Zardari also is being depicted as the epitome of corruption and thus unworthy of governing Pakistan. Working from within the government, military intelligence was able to coax a junior minister to release a list of thousands of supposedly corrupt politicians and public officials in the country. Leading them was Mr. Zardari himself – notwithstanding the fact that before he was elected president, he had been imprisoned for more than a decade by the military without a single conviction."

"What irks the generals is not just that they are now answerable to a civilian but that Mr. Zardari belongs to an ethnic group that is shunned by the country's ruling Punjabi elite. Mr. Zardari is a Sindhi."

"The hysteria among Pakistan's upper-class elites demanding a military dictatorship is best reflected in an article written by a retired military officer in the right-wing newspaper The News:

“Military rule should return. The problem with democratic governments is that they remain under pressure to go with what the majority of the citizens want, not what is best for them. … People of several South American countries that have returned to civilian rule after a long time are now beginning to feel they were better off under dictatorships.”

Whoa! A military coup d'etat in Pakistan could be disasterous according to Beyond Baghdad's Ralph Peters:

"Cross the border into Pakistan in force. The subsequent debacle, as Pakistan cut off supply routes to Afghanistan and threatened a nuclear response, was entirely the fault of our generals on the ground, not of the administration."

"Fortunately, President Obama's willingness to talk to our enemies rescued the situation. After laying down their arms, our troops were allowed to evacuate Pakistan and Afghanistan in peace. The Taliban's return to power in Kabul did not result in an excessive bloodbath, and al Qaeda is not permitted the unrestricted freedom it enjoyed in the country prior to 2001."

"State Department surveys prove that the Afghan population welcomes Sharia law, the closure of girls' schools and other such cultural choices. Our reparations payments to Kabul (as with those to Havana) are only just. Opium production is, arguably, no worse than in the past."

Scary scary - no doubt - especially if eschewing Clausewitizian caveats.

OTOH though - an enemy nation state with a real army (relatively speaking - PAK army has lost every war they've ever started - which is all of them), vast tracks of of ungovernable turf that have never seen ye olde Westphalian writ of state that happens to host Great Satan's blood sworn enemies like al Qaeda and Taliban's Mullah Omar and allegedly chockful of talibani enemies that cross border to cause harm to Great Satan's own dear sons surging in Helmand.

Pakistan may be closer to slipping off the edge than anyone thinks now anyway -

If 44 truly desires in ending AFPAK with a successful ending - perhaps best ensure Zardari's genuinely elected civilian govs hangs on and hangs out til end of their term.

"A coup in Islamabad will mean failure in Kabul."

Pic - "Beau Coup"