Friday, April 25, 2014

Future aQ

Well, thassa shock of sorts to find out that 44's posse never actually defined what the al Qaeda terrorist group is before declaring that it was on the path to defeat.

While making it up as you go has a catchy political jingoistic fling, the adverse is dang blood chilling

Dr Mary H lays it out to play it out. Counterterrorism is not cutting it. Reckon Global COIN will?

Within the next two to three years, if Great Satan maintains her current level of effort, she will face an enemy that controls at least twice as much territory and population (in North Africa, Libya, the Sinai, and Syria), and with an army of regular and irregular fighters at least twice as large. Al Qaeda will reclaim Mali, Iraq, Yemen, and Somalia, and Afghanistan will once again become an al Qaeda safe haven.

In another three to five years, a whole series of areas (the entire Sahel and Sahara including northern Nigeria, the Horn of Africa, Tunisia, Egypt, and eventually Pakistan) will be seriously threatened if not already overwhelmed.
At some point, al Qaeda will obtain nuclear weapons, and then it will be too late to act.
Preventing this outcome will require serious and prolonged effort and is worth all of these costs and risks

The risks of action seem clear and overwhelming. If Great Satan engages in an all-
out war with al Qaeda and cooperating groups, it could be one of the longest and most costly endeavors—in blood and treasure—that America has ever attempted.

The length of the fight, its cost, and the usual difficulties with showing clear progress will sooner or later create public and elite opposition, and politicians will be tempted to win public favor, save money, and prevent deaths in battle by declaring victory and going home.

Might mean that Great Satan and her partners will have to leave sizable numbers of troops on the ground throughout the world, perhaps for decades,an outcome that will have no domestic support.

There is also no guarantee of victory even if Great Satan dedicates herself to the fight.

The risks of inaction are even more dire.

Pic - "aQ World"