Egypt's Campaign against Iran

In the last week, Egypt has moved against Iran and its allies in the Arab world. Cairo arrested a Hizballah cell that was preparing terrorist operations on Egyptian soil, organized a campaign against Hamas weapons and money smugglers in the Sinai Peninsula, and stepped up efforts to displace Qatar -- an Iranian sympathizer -- as a mediator on Sudan, Lebanon, and other inter-Arab issues.

It remains to be seen whether this policy shift will become a sustained part of a grand strategy to restore Egypt's leadership among Arab states or, instead, a more-defensive approach designed to parry previous humiliations from Iran's allies.

It is apparent, however, that Cairo is sending a signal to Great Satan that the "nuclear file" is not the only -- or even the most urgent -- aspect of the Iranian threat

Washington Institute has the lo down and it is prett interesting!

Pic - "Mubarak Zionist Traitor"

100 Daze

100 Days into the 'New Era' is really not enough time to be able to develop an accurate pic of 44's Grand Strategy.

Yet, the pic that is developing proportionally seems, well, neither Grand or Strategic. Systematically it seems suspect and kinda dumb.

Let's review:

Supreme Leader totally disses 44's "hello vid" -- a message that admittedly did NOT mention 'regime change' -- or 'democracy' either. Far from unclenching the mullahs collective fist, Iran's enrichment Extenz swells up and trucks along at high speed while an innocent American girl is held hostage.

Sudan's illegit intolerant Field Marshall President for Life disses ICC criminal indictments, practices genocide on his own people and expelled humanitarian organizations.

Europa -- which supposedly was hot for 44 -- is not hot for ratcheting up sanctions on Persia or manning up to stand up in Af Pak land. NATO may unofficially be as dead as Uday and Usay.

Dear Leader test fired a live ballistic missile in a sales pitch (it may have been a bust - though not in Great Satan's favor), expells humanitarian orgs and suffers no consequences while holding innocent girls hostage.

Taliban is increasing power, influence and territorial control in Pakistan, surging almost to the gates of Islamabad -- even now in striking distance to Land of the Pure's super sensitive military industrial complex -- the massive Wah Cantonment at Rawalpindi.

Pakistan's military -- despite years of nothing but love from Great Satan bling wise -- seems frightened to engage Taliban in a real stand up fight.

Unfaithful? In fact, it could be said that one of the top 3 military beneficiaries of Great Satan for the last decade has significant support or sympathizers in PAK Army for the Taliban. Combat might force them to take sides.

The illegit regime in sunny sunny climes remains entrenched in Cuba, and tyrant lover, wanna be Pres for Life Hugo seems poised for another round of regional mischief-making.

Rowdy Red China disses Great Satan's navy in internat'l waters, lectures about pocketbooks and enjoys a human rights free environment.

Traditional and emerging allies such as Columbia, Taiwan, SoKo, Little Satan, Japan, Australia, and India are left wondering how much they still matter to Great Satan as 44 seemingly embraces, entertains and encourages frenemies and adversaries.

Talking Turkey without ever mentioning the "G" word -- atoning for sins of Manifest Destiny and equivicating Great Satan's American Exceptionalism while reversing nearly 2 decades of committment to maintain, develop and globally deploy a 30 years in the future fighting force.

100 Daze seems a systematic stall on a strategic level - - a roll back of democracy and democracy projection all around the world.

100 Daze advertises a scary underwhelming and not especially Exceptional future - - where Great Satan is neither feared nor loved.


Art - "The Truth" by Michael D'Antuono

Taiwan Trouble?

Tiny tiny Taiwan lies on the periphery of a major power, in this case China, growing in strength in recent years. Casting covetous eyes on resource rich Siberia may not be absolutely clear, but with regard to Taiwan, China is unambiguous in its assertion of sovereignty and its intention to absorb it in the long-run.

Any tips?

1) Be careful about security commitments. They mean something. Don’t make them unless you mean it.

Continue to make clear to China, including through military planning and deployments, the U.S. security interest in a peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues and the unacceptability of a Chinese attack, so that Beijing will not be tempted to see in the Georgia crisis a model for resolution of its own irredentist aims.

2) Don’t provoke the dragon, expecting the eagle to fly to the rescue.

(3) A constructive relationship between America and major powers is essential to the security of vulnerable states;

(4) Geography matters;

(5) Speak softly when you don’t plan to carry a big stick; and

(6) Credibility is global.

Currently, China's strategic footing in Taiwan is growing at the expense of America's.

"Despite this new dynamic the United States is not eager to push the cause of Taiwanese independence given that Sino-Taiwanese cooperation is growing on a number of fronts, Chinese cooperation is needed on pressing global challenges, and, perhaps most importantly, Taiwan itself is not pushing for it aggressively."

"The history of the China-Taiwan standoff and the recent rise in tensions as China's growing determination to reclaim Taiwan meets increasingly defiant Taiwanese assertions of independence."

The tension about Taiwan is always tight.

"Influenced by business interests eager to court China and conservatives loath to see Taiwan's plucky democracy swallowed by the Communist Leviathan, Washington placates Beijing with an official One China policy while selling arms to Taiwan and conveying a tacit promise to defend her against Chinese attack.

These mixed messages invite the two sides into miscalculations that could embroil America in war.

Taiwan upping the panty ante bling wise on her own defense and reaching out for a mutual defense pact with SoKo and Japan could keep the peace

Art - - "1st we do SoKo - then we do Taiwan"

Uncle Tony Rocks!

Great Satan's coolest Uncle ever - the former PM of Great Britain - prob one the most eloquent, articulate speakers of the Queen's English scores another hit recently

"It is almost ten years to the day that I stood in this city and gave an address at the height of the Kosovo crisis. In that speech, I set out what I described as a doctrine of international community that sought to justify intervention, including if necessary military intervention, not only when a nation's interests are directly engaged; but also where there exists a humanitarian crisis or gross oppression of a civilian population.

"An active and engaged foreign policy, not a reactive or isolationist one: better to intervene than to leave well alone. Be bold, adventurous even in what we can achieve."

"As for me, I am older, better educated by the events that shaped my premiership, but I still believe that those who oppress and brutalise their citizens are better put out of power than kept in it."

Whoa! The rocking Uncle Tony delivers heavy metal daemoneoconic hook laden tunes that sweetly segues from the "Blair Doctrine" - the killer "Universal Values of the Human Spirit" into his refreshingly unapologetic call for Regime Changes - whenever the need or opportunity arises.

And just like the passing of blunts at concerts everywhere this is serious meds for Great Satan fans.

"So: should we now revert to a more traditional foreign policy, less bold, more cautious; less idealistic, more pragmatic, more willing to tolerate the intolerable because of fear of the unpredictable consequences that intervention can bring?

"My argument is that the case for the doctrine I advocated ten years ago, remains as strong now as it was then; and that what has really changed is the context in which the doctrine has to be applied.

"The struggle in which we are joined today is profound in its danger; requires engagement of a different and more comprehensive kind; and can only be won by the long haul. The context therefore is much tougher. But the principle is the same.

"The ideology we are fighting is not based on justice. That is a cause we can understand. And world-wide these groups are adept, certainly, at using causes that indeed are about justice, like Palestine. Their cause, at its core, however, is not about the pursuit of values that we can relate to; but in pursuit of values that directly contradict our way of life. They don't believe in democracy, equality or freedom.

"They will espouse, tactically, any of these values if necessary. But at heart what they want is a society and state run on their view of Mohammedism. They are not pluralists. They are the antithesis of pluralism.

"And they don't think that only their own community or state should be like that. They think the world should be governed like that.

"In other words, there may well be groups, or even Governments, that can be treated with, and with whom we can reach an accommodation. Negotiation and persuasion can work and should be our first resort. If they do, that's great, which is why if Hamas were to accept the principle of a peaceful two state solution, they could be part of the process agreeing it. But the ideology, as a movement within Mohammedism, has to be defeated. It is incompatible not with 'the West' but with any society of open and tolerant people

"So I understand completely the fatigue with an interventionist foreign policy - especially when it involves military action that takes its toll on the nation's psyche, when we see those who grieve for the fallen in battle.

"The struggle seems so vast, so complex, so full of layers and intersections that daunt us, that they make us unsure where we start, how we proceed and where and how on earth we end.

" 'Look there are people in this world who are crazy,' a friend said to me the other day, 'leave them to be crazy.' Except the problem is that they won't leave us in the comfort of our lives."

Uncle Tony lists out the strategy (here's the pdf) for confounding, hounding and if the wind is right - annihilating intolerant, corrupt, illegit regimes and any of their myriad fanboys - rocket rich or not!

"The same is true for the security threat we face. We are standing up for what is right. The body of ideas that has given us this liberty, to speak and think as we wish, that allows us to vote in and vote out our rulers, that provides a rule of law on which we can rely, and a political space infinitely more transparent than anything that went before ; that body isn't decaying. It is in the prime of life.

"It is the future. And though the extremists that confront us have their new adherents, we have ours too, nations democratic for the first time, people tasting freedom and liking it."

"And that is why we should not revert to the foreign policy of years gone by, of the world weary, the supposedly sensible practitioners of caution and expediency, who think they see the world for what it is, without the illusions of the idealist who sees what it could be.

"The statesmanship that went before regarded politics as a Bismarck or Machiavelli regarded it. It's all a power play; a matter, not of right or wrong, but of who's on our side, and our side defined by our interests, not our values. The notion of humanitarian intervention was the meddling of the unwise, untutored and inexperienced.

"Or to form alliances with any regime, however bad, because they solve 'today' without asking whether they will imperil 'tomorrow'? This isn't statesmanship. It is just politics practiced for the most comfort and the least disturbance in the present moment.

"And this struggle we face now cannot be defeated by staying out; but by sticking in, abiding by our values not retreating from them.


"It is a cause that must be defeated by a better cause. That cause is one of open, tolerant, outward-looking societies in which people respect diversity and difference in which peaceful co-existence can flourish.

"It is a cause that has to be fought for; with hearts and minds as well as arms, of course.

"But fought for, nonetheless with the courage to see it through and the confidence that the cause is just, right and the only way the future of our world can work.

"We have to understand one very simple thing: where we are called upon to fight, we have to do it. If we are defeated anywhere, we are at risk of being defeated everywhere."

Pic - "Uncle Tony Rocks!"

Thing Called Love

Totally Rocks!

Personally Approved

Oh Snap! Well, maybe that should read "Bloody 'L!"

Great Britain's Times Online points out that recently declassified classified memos prove that sleek, sexyful super smart former Sec O' State Dr Condoleezza Rice (when she was the NSA grrl) personally approved enhancing interrogation techniques, now arguably termed as torture, on hapless, murderous Great Satan hating creeps that sweetly fell into Great Satan's clutches like sweet ripe peaches from a Georgia tree.

Say it aint so!

Whatev.

James Mann's essential "Rise of the Vulcans" that chronicles "America's stand ins to the world" like Armitage, Cheney, Powell, Rice, Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz, puts it best even years, later.

Essentially - naysayers, inappropriate handwringers, politicians looking for a quick fix and realpolitik fans

"...were not responsible for American security after New York City and Washington were attacked by terrorism."

"The Vulcans were."

Art "Makes me like Dr Rice even more"

Psych!

Thanks to Gloire over at "Worst Case Scenerio" Iran's recent "Army Day" parade was severely curtailed.

Mullahopolis originally planned to feature a message of Air Superiority at Army Day with like all available fighters, and combo fighter/ground attack jets sweetly doing the flyby by as various despotic fans and control freaks harangued attendees.

The message may have been intended to prove that Preacher Command controls the skies and rowdy rumors of Little Satan's aerial prowess were totally overblown.

Except "Army Day" was disappointing with only a few jets and choppers hanging out.

Why cause?

Because!

"In the first week of April, Tehran announced it would stage its biggest air show ever to dramatize a ceremonial military parade in the capital on April 18. Iran would show the world that it is capable of fighting off an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities.

Instead only four aircraft flew over the saluting stand. Iranian media explained that the big show was cancelled due to "bad weather and poor visibility," when in fact Tehran basked in warm and sunny weather.

Moscow had informed the Iranians that its spy satellites and intelligence sources had picked up preparations at Israeli Air Force bases to destroy the 140 warplanes, the bulk of the Iranian air force, on the ground the night before the display, leaving its nuclear sites without aerial defense.

A similar operation wiped out the entire Egyptian air fleet in the early hours of the 1967 war.

Iranian and intelligence sources disclose that Moscow warned Tehran Friday April 17 that Israel was planning to destroy all 140 fighter-bombers concentrated at the Mehr-Abad Air Force base for an air show over Tehran on Iran's Army Day the following day.

The entire fleet was accordingly removed to remote bases and the display cancelled."

So much for Air Superiority in the Gay Free Republic of Preacher's Paradise!

Pic - "Little Satan says 'Psych!"

Inevitable

No surprise. The Swat Valley Peace deal to establish mohammedist jurisprudence in lieu of Pakistan's Writ of State - faithfully negotiated in good - if horribly misguided faith - has vanished faster than a viagra free swim meet.

Taliban conducted a victory road march through districts of Swabi, Malakand, and Mardan after conquering Buner and set up armed, choking checkpoints in Swat and Buner and along the roads that border Swabi, Malakand, and Mardan.

Interesting - Taliban may actually be providing Command and Control targets for the coming war in the Land of the Pure.

It is inevitable.

Land of the Pure's semi corrupt, semi legit parlimentary gov is left with two very combatives choices:

Either - allow intolerant, illegit, time traveling to devour the nation statelet - or fight.

"The difference is one of time and location. The Pakistanis either can fight now, seeking to limit the conflict to the Pashtun regions of the northwest, or wait to fight — while the jihadists move to strengthen their ability to strike in Punjab province, the heart of Pakistan."

"The state is being pushed toward taking action by both the deteriorating security situation at home and mounting pressure from United States. But it is not clear whether there is sufficient political will in Islamabad to go on the offensive."


Taliban will not lay down their weapons, nor will they stop fighting until sharia was enforced throughout all of Pakistan. War "will continue till the Day of Judgment." Demands that Pakistan shut down traditional courts and threatened lawyers that they would be punished if they tried to practice law in Swat.

Taliban also loves Great Satan's arch enemy - giving OBL a shout out to come and hang.

Inevitable

"Finally, it is the army that has to step forward and face the Taliban. It has baulked so far because of adverse public opinion and an equally lethal media tilt.

"But now that the politicians are waking up to the danger and the media is increasingly disabused, the army must end its India-driven strategy and try to save Pakistan from becoming the caliphate of Al Qaeda.

"In fact, Islamabad has to reach an understanding with New Delhi over the matter in order to get the army to mobilise in the numbers required.

"However, if this is not done, the people will have to fight the war on their own: What if the Taliban come and the army is not there to protect us?

"If we don’t accept it and fight the Taliban, then the world will have to come and fight it the way it thinks fit. "


Art - "Escape from Taleban" by "Kabuliwalla's Bangali Wife"

Pyramidland Versus Hiz'B'Allah

Whoa!

Recently busting nearly 50 people in Egypt, President For Life Hosni's regime points out they were plotting "hostile operations".

They are accused of being involved in planning attacks, espionage, forging official documents, spreading Shia ideology, and preparing explosives.

Hiz'B'Allah's creepy body part collector General confirmed that one of the group's members was among those arrested. He admitted that Sami Shihab had been trying to get military equipment into Gaza.

But no way were they plotting to overthrow the gov! Alas, footage from his Dec 28th speech (included) could be said to have encouraged an indigenious overthrow.

HBA admits trying to estab a military supply line into the Strip - a left handed compliment to Pyramidland's endeavours to never let a girl diss them again for failing to maintain their own writ of State (Like Tzipi did)!

Funny though - no one mentions Little Satan's Sudan Strike in connection with yet another rocket rich rejectionist movement fed and funded by Iran.

MC Kamahl Santamaria is joined by Khalil Al-Anani, a scholar specialising in political Mohammedism and democratisation in the Middle East, Ahmad Moussalli, an Mohammedist movements expert and a professor at the American University in Beirut, and Hassan Nafaa, the chairman of the political science department at Cairo University and the secretary-general of the Arab Thought Forum in Amman.

Cult Of Irrelevance

Recently footloose and fancy free for a few precious hours - with cash on hand and strategic petroleum reserves sufficient to maintain certain activity, a call was made to a fellow hot! co conspirator to trek down the way and hit the mall.

No way. She was totally chained to the house - forbidden to leave - even for a few hours. Rumor has it - her mom was checking the mail and enroute back to the house spied her one of own dear dot's underthings in the backseat of the semi snazzy ride her and papa provided.

And all the pouting in the world about it was totally irrelevant.

Kinda like notorious Great and Little Satan hater, Dr Steven M Walt bemoans the happy fact that many super smart PHD brainiac Poli Sci Guys and Girls aren't taken seriously by policy makers or public opinion in Internat'l Relations or Foreign Policy.

"For political scientists, that ought to mean using our knowledge to address important matters of concern in the real world, and to contribute to the broader public discourse on these topics. That doesn't mean we should spend our days writing op-eds (or blogs!), but neither does it mean that we should studiously avoid any engagement with controversial real-world topics. "

Ah yes - those 'controversial real world topics'

In other words - espousing an amoral, corrupt return to the amoral corrupt cult of stability. Or, as 44 might say - "The failed ideologies of the past"

The Realpolitik reprobates like Dr Walt, Dr Desch and Dr Nye address many concerns and instead of blaming the message - they tend to blame everything else.

Let's just cut to it shall we?

Perhaps the real (no pun intended) reason that policy makers eschew the messengers is that these cats spend their entire adult lives in climate controlled environs - surrounded by smart people book learning wise - yet they have precious little real world experience.

All their problems, conflict resolutions and concerns have been handled in a face to face friendly give and takes, committee meetings, memos or ultimately a pink slip.

They have never had to stand up to creeps.

They've never put a stop to bullies at school, predators at the mall, or jerks at a Little League game.

The nature of gov service is officials at all levels will often be called on to deal with subjects with which they are unfamiliar. Even if they know what is happening now, they may not know what has happened before, or whether anything similar has happened elsewhere, or the likelihood that something worse will happen later.

The people they call on for help will be people who can fill in the gaps in their knowledge in a timely way -- not to make them experts or scholars themselves, but to help them serve the public.

Academics who can't do this aren't worthless for everything.

They are just not worth very much to cats that actually make policy.

And pouting about it only showcases the Cult of Irrelevance.

Pic - "Ivory Towers" by Darth Bayne

Avenger

Great Satan's fully crunk 30 years in the future military continues to march.

Meet Avenger.

She is sleek, sexyful, supersonic and semi stealthy.

"The Avenger's 17-degree sweep, 66-ft. span wing and tail are all aligned in plan view with one or other of the leading edges. This is the same shaping discipline used on classic stealth designs like the F-22 and B-2."

"Pratt has been developing an S-shaped exhaust system that both offers protection from radar and cooling to reduce the infrared signature. The engine is expected to provide an airspeed of at least 400 knots, but company officials say envelope expansion tests may prove the speed to be "considerably greater". The UCAV's operational altitude would be up to 60,000 feet"


She is a killer - the 2nd time Great Satan has christened her classically classy airborne angels with the nom d' guerre of "Avenger".

The original Avenger annihilated Japan's elite aircraft carriers at Midway and sweetly continued to inflict agony and pain on Nippon's Co Prosperity Imperial Sphere until Japan screamed "God! Please! Stop!"

New school Avenger totes over a ton of precision guided intelligent weaponry plus enough eyes to track whatever she wants

"Avenger's long, featureless underside further provides an ideal location for a sensor such as an all-weather, active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. The wide-area surveillance system - to be provided by the U.S. Air Force - has yet to be defined."

Avenger looks to be designed for a wide variety of missions - recon plus attorney free targeted kills

"Avenger's weapons bay allows internal carriage of 500-pound bombs with GBU-38 Joint Direct Attack Munitions with GPS navigation and laser guidance kits attached. Given the aircraft's 41-ft length - which will increase by at least two feet in the second test aircraft - the weapons bay appears to be 10-feet long."

Avenger was designed from her inception so that the wing could be folded at the point where it cranks for storage in hangars or for aircraft carrier operations. The UCAV also comes with a tailhook, which suggests that carrier-related chicanery is sweetly sexplicit.

Oh Snap! Analysis means at the cost of loiter speed and time on station, a piston engine can be throttled back to reduce fuel consumption and extend loiter time, a turbofan operates efficiently only in a rather narrow power band (85-95%), which means Avenger cannot fly quite as slow as a Reaper, nor hang around quite as long.

It does mean she's way better at dashing from one point to another, which can be important when dealing with "time critical" targets (e.g., creepy intolerant high value enemies spotted in Swat Valley and Avenger is checking out the hood in Waziristan near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border).

She is a Predator.

She is a killer.

She is Avenger.

Pic "Avenger" by Scott Meade

Commonwealth's China Concerns

There is an old Russian proverb - "Vsyo volka ne kormi, a on na les smotrit"- "No matter how much you would feed the wolf, he still looks at the forest."

This applies to the existing and evolving Russian relationship with China - no matter how many public statements are made about the strength and mutual benefit of a Moscow-Beijing alliance, China is inching further and further ahead of Russia on all criteria that signify a great power - economy, high-tech development, international reputation.

And military strength

The last item already makes Moscow nervous, even if outwardly it shows no signs of concerns. This entry at a popular daily online magazine Lenta.ru discusses China's recent development of a ballistic missile, based on its Dong-Feng 21 rocket (possibly nuclear-tipped) that can sink a large moving target (presumably a US aircraft carrier):

"It is easy to assume against whom, and for what purpose, this new Chinese weapon is fielded. First, the modern aircraft carrier is the only target that a given country would not mind using a nuclear weapon on. ... Secondly, only the U.S. military fleet has so many aircraft carriers that justify a creation of new types of ballistic missiles. And third, the American ships of this class are a deterrent to China, a country that does not conceal its aggressive intentions against, for example, neighboring Taiwan."

The analysis further brings up evidence that USSR has been developing a similar missile in the 1960s and 1970s - whose purpose was to presumably sink American carriers - but ended up not fielding the actual missile due to a variety of domestic and international factors.

"In any case, Russia has abandoned the development of such weapons for the last several decades, and the U.S. did not seriously expect that ballistic missiles capable of striking major moving maritime targets may be fielded by a likely opponent. In short, while the two superpowers were flexing their muscles, a third power - while only gaining momentum - was looking far into the future."

Russia sold China mass amounts of modern military technology in the 1990s and even recently - everything from small arms to the modern Su-27 jet fighter to submarines and naval vessels. Given China's determination to develop and field its own modern military, these purchases from Russia went into further developing and modernizing one of the largest militaries in the world.

Given Russia's emphasis on its nuclear deterrent, Moscow so far avoided a "What If?" discussion about the time when China's military could eventually surpass its Russian counterpart.

However, a sobering and realistic assessment is already necessary:

"We cannot say with confidence if this weapon (anti-ship ballistic missile) was indigenously developed in China. Most likely Beijing has once again carried out a competent and quiet "information leak" with the purpose of demonstrating the potential of China's military power and its future development.

"But if this Chinese rocket is not pure propaganda, then it's not just the United States that would soon have to develop technology that can neutralize such a weapon."

submitted by Yevgeny Bendersky

art - "Commonwealth Missile Shield" by ilustracao vetorizada

Poker Face

A tanz muzak techno homage to way back in the last millennium, Lady GaGa's "Poker Face" is blitzing through Great Satan's Hit Parade and nat'l dance floors just like General Patton's rowdy panzers sliced through broken, desperately defeated last ditch conscripts led by wicked Wehrmacht's elite truppen and annihilated das Dritten Reich time Deutschland.

Lyrically hooking lines with suitable suitors - the tune plays it like poker - a game of bluff and other things.

"Can't read my, Can't read my No he can't read my poker face"

In a way this could be applied to an oh snap analysis of recent events regarding

Little Satan's shout out that Iranian neutronic imperium imperils her - to the point of actually launching an massive assault.

Dmitri Jevec shares au courant intell that calls the bluff

"U.S. nixed Israel's request for bunker-busters

Thursday, 14 August 2008

The United States rejected a recent Israeli request for advanced detection systems as well as bunker-busters capable of locating and destroying Iranian nuclear weapons sites.

Israeli officials said the administration was persuaded by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that such systems could be used to facilitate an Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities.

Full piece Here.

U.S. denies Israel's request for tanker aircraft [and permission to fly through Iraqi airspace]

Thursday, 21 August 2008

....This marked the second U.S. refusal of an Israeli request for military systems in about a month. In July, the administration rejected an Israeli request for advanced bunker-busters and underground detection systems. The White House was also said to have denied Israel permission to use Iraq's air space for an attack on Iran.

Full piece Here.

Iraqi airspace 'must not be used in strike'

July 14, 2008

....According to a senior official, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari "conveyed to the US ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, on Friday a message from the government that Iraq doesn't accept the use of Iraqi space by Israeli jets," that could launch aerial attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Full piece Here.


" The risks (capture of Israeli pilots by the Iranians, Iranian retaliation against Israel itself etc.) are substantial and the chances of significant and lasting damage to the Persian nuclear programme are not good."

"Even the online wagering site intrade.com puts the odds of an Little Satan and or American strike against Iran before 31 Dec 2010 at 31% an attack WILL occur, 69% odds that an attack WILL NOT occur.

"Anyone who is quite convinced that the Israelis and or Americans will attack Iran before that time can place a wager at the intrade.com site and potentially win a substantial amount of money."

"To sum up, the logistics of an Israeli manned bombing mission to Iran are extraordinarily difficult."

And extraordinarily possible.

SSP Working Paper PDF entitled

"Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities"

Trekking into and out of Iran, refueling and avoiding airspaces are well within the IAF's capabilities.

Obliterating the three essential centers for a nuclear device requires 84 tons of bunker busting weaponry of which IAF currently has plenty.

Also, the Strike Package may include ballistic missiles like Jericho III.

Like Center for Strategic Studies "Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities "

Jane‘s estimated that the missile has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers and a 1,000-kilogram warhead. This estimate is based largely on a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency estimate of the launch capability of the Shavit booster that Israel tested on September 19, 1988.

42 Jericho III's armed with a 750 kg Warhead would be required to annihilate all three critical nodes

Those are all tactical considerations.

Any strike would have regional - strategic consequences.

Little Satan may be playing out a "Grand Bargain" of her own.

Recently proclaimed welcome anytime at the Kremlin by Vlad himself, Little Satan may have bewitched the Commonwealth into delaying and stalling the delivery of the dreadred super future air defense system - the sinister S300.

Since Commonwealth cats are starting to realize that a crunk and disorderly hood like CentCom and China developing and deploying projectiles may not be so cool after all, and a Great Power play by Commonwealth may actually befriend Little Satan from time to time - especially if Great Satan thinks 'even handedly" in the rowdy rocket rich ME.

Trashing Iran's sensitive sites may involve other strikes on multiple enemies. Hiz'B'Allah could get a dose to keep their heads down or taken head on and Syria could wake up on that wonderful day to find her entire Air Force annihilated on the ground.

Tiny tiny surgical precision airstrikes by Little Satan haven't caused any response - at all.

Little Satan hit Iraq right in the midst of the horrible Iran Iraq war.

No Iraqi response.

Litttle Satan hit Syria at Al Quba. No Syrian reaction form a Syrian reactor.

Little Satan strikes Sudan and destroys Iranian Fajr 5 missiles complete with launchers enroute to either the Strip or Hiz'B'Allah's Sinai cadre.

No Iranian response.

Any air blitz on Iran would be a different story - so why pussyfoot around?

This is significant.

A strategic realignment of the ME may very well hinge on a "Respectable amount" of damage to Iran.

David Samuels gives probably the best rationale for Little Satan calling everyone's bluff

"The inevitability of a future Palestinian state is the most powerful argument for the inevitability of an Israeli attack on Iran—unless the Iranian nuclear program is stopped by other means.

"Taking out the Iranian nuclear program is the one obvious avenue by which Israel can turn the debilitating drip-drip-drip of territorial giveaways and international condemnation into a convincing appearance of strength.

"Bombing Iran's nuclear facilities is the surest way for Israel to restore the image of strength and unpredictability that made it valuable to the United States after 1967 while also eliminating Iran as a viable partner for America's favor. "

The fact that this approach may be the international-relations equivalent of keeping your boyfriend by bushwacking the other cute girl he likes is an indicator of the difference betwixt romance and alliances between states—and hardly an argument for why it won't work.

Little Satan knows threats inherent in giving up huge bits of West Bank will be greatly augmented or diminished depending on how a Palestine is born.

A Palestinian state born as the result of Little Satan's feckless weakness recalls old school Vulcan Def Sec Rumsfeld admonishment that "weakness is Provocative - a way bigger danger than a sweet little baby Palestine born at the height of Little Satan's crazy, unpredictable combat bona fides.

"Ariel Sharon was able to withdraw from Gaza because he defeated Arafat and crushed the second intifada. Desperate to rid themselves of the bad PR and the demographic threat posed by maintaining Israel's hold over the West Bank,

Little Satan has yet to find a victory big enough to allow a retreat.

She wont accept any threats posed by images of a defeated Israel being forced to withdraw from Hebron and Nablus by triumphant Palestinian militias backed by Iran.

Pic "Check this hand cause I'm marvelous"

Pakistan Surrenders

Write off the Writ of State in the Land of the Pure.

Pakistan's Pres - Mr 10% - Benazir's widower - Asif Ali Zardari caved to pressure and sign off to surrender Pakistani sovereignity to mohmmedist jurisprudence and signed the Nizam-e-Adl Regulation into law today after a majority of the Pakistani Parliament passed the bill.

The regulation allows for the establishment of sharia courts in the Malakand Division, an administrative region that encompasses more than one-third of the Northwest Frontier Province and includes the districts of Malakand, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Dir, Chitral, and Kohistan.

The agreement calls for the withdrawal of the Pakistani Army from Swat, the release all Taliban prisoners, the withdrawal of any criminal cases against Taliban leaders and fighters, and the imposition of sharia. The government agreed to the terms of the Malakand Accord after the military suffered its third defeat against the Swat Taliban in two years.

Taliban have repeatedly violated the ceasefire in Swat. Taliban forces have attacked military convoys and captured soldiers and government officials. Most recently, on April 11, a Taliban force wounded three security personnel after ambushing a convoy in Swat.

Meanwhile, the Swat Taliban have advanced on neighboring Buner and are now in full control of the district, which is just 60 miles from the capital of Islamabad.

Heave Ho

Great Satan scores righteous payback today and proves she don't play!

A wonderful reminder to friends, frenemies and enemies that

"The link between global freedom of the seas and foreign policy has been a driving force in modern world history. Like Britain before us, the U.S. is a commercial power whose economic interests have led it to play a unique global role in the interests of making the world hospitable to its investments and trade.

The Pax Britannica and the Pax Americana have both rested on sea power, and any country that challenges America's ability to secure vital sea lanes risks the full weight of U.S. military power."

If anybody wants a large-scale military conflict with a Great Satan that is angry, aroused and united, endangering American vessels is the right way to get one.

Sweet!

Even Sweeter and ironically delish is the happy fact that DDG 96 bears the name of one of Great Satan's original pirate killers from way back in the last millennium.


Art - "USS Bainbridge gives Somali Pirates ye olde heave ho!"

Democrazies Unbound?

In the essential "Return of History" by daemoneoconic philosopher prince Dr Robert Kagan shares that the 'autocrazies' - unelected, unfree regimes - will tend to hook up, buddy up and stand up for each other.

The recent emergency free emergency meeting at UN concerning NoKo's oathbreaking in projectile launching is a good example.

Vladland's Foreign Minister - the semi avuncular Sergie Lavrov - openly wondered if any violation of UN Resolution 1718 actually occured.

China cried like a little girl on such a pretty pretty Sunday and pleaded against

"... any action which may exacerbate or complicate the situation further"

In fact - the only thing the emergency session could agree on was - well, another session.

This is significant.


As Great Satan's former UN cat (with like the world's largest mustache ever) the killer cool John Bolton pointed out that China bears a ton of burden as the sole supplicant of NoKo

"Real pressure has to be applied on China, which gives North Korea 80 to 90 percent of its energy and a substantial amount of its food and other humanitarian needs."


In addition to something not unlike malign neglect, Great Satan could unleash her posse.

Great Satan's Concert of Democracies - or more accurately - her League of Hot! Democrazies unbound - conducting their very own missile drills in NoKo's dangerous hood would be clever.

Nippon got game. Her petite Navy actually punches far above her weight class and as the 2nd largest contributor to the UN, a seat on the Security Council is not out of the question.

If Japan does take her place at le Council Securite' then look out!

Her skirt flirt with a pacifistic constitution would allow her to develop and deploy - world wide - a robust application of Japanese power.

Especially in her own backyard.

Same deal for SoKo.

Or Taiwan - specifically to remind Red China that any actions may excaberate or complicate the situation further.

Imagine Dr Rice doing her best Uncle Sergie impersonation, studying her nails as if they were the most interesting thing in all the world.

Unbinding the League of Hot! Democrazies allowing them free reign to act out so near Red China's hegemonic periphery would be very exciting - no doubt.

Just like NoKo.

Pic - "Come to think of it - SoKo and Nippon could really raise cane"

Nuclear Superiority Day!

It's time! It's Nuclear Technology Superiority Day in the Gay Free Land of Preacher Command.

Iran's Fuel Manufacturing Plant (FMP) located in Isfahan is most likely to be officially inaugurated on the national rejoicing day, the Iranian students news agency reported.

While unverified reports gossip that Persia actually has two tactical atomic weapons purchased at wholesale prices in early Russian Commonwealth era (a 1950's era atomic artillery shell and an old school 'dumb' bomb with a low, tactical type yield) Iran claims that nuclear energy and nuclear power are two different critters.

The mullahs hand picked Pres (up for faux re election in a faux election held soon), the fiery little rocketeer Ahmadinejad says the issue is 'closed'

"Recently, some of the westerners have announced that the Iranian nation could use peaceful nuclear energy but has no right to produce nuclear bomb. We tell them that the Iranian nation has never sought atomic bombs."

"The Iranian people believe that those who are stockpiling atomic bombs are politically backward, because the era of atomic bomb, threat, bullying and militarism is over"

Iran also claims that any reference to scary scary NoKo guy's recent missile fizzle and Iran's rocketeering are totally a freak accident - just like Syria hitting Tehran for consultations at the same time.

Iran may be making a big announcement this year on Happy Nuke Day.

Might be the ideal moment for Little Satan to make one too.


Pic "Nuclear Power is our Unalienable Right"

Strasbourg Kehl 60

It's been an article of faith among historians, Internat'l Relations cats and the democracies throughout Cold War and into the new millennium.

Great Satan created and sustained regional alliances - toting most of the combat burdens while allies provided bases, training areas with a handful of national military capabilities and enjoyed a robust era of nigh drunken pacifistic phatness.

The Happy 60th BDay NATO shout out revealed that Europa is not ready collectively to stand up and man up in scary parts of the world - where danger seems far far away from their safe and comfy hoods.

"The United States is now spending around 4 percent of its GDP on defense. NATO set a target of 2 percent for its European members—and hardly any of them are meeting that goal. The two best armies in Europe—the French and the British—number fewer than two hundred thousand soldiers combined

"The French reckon on being able to deploy twenty-five thousand of those to a major contingency, and have no reserve whatsoever.

"The British deploy a far higher percentage of their force and have a reserve—the Territorial Army—but British deployment includes thousands of soldiers in Northern Ireland.

"Australia and Canada have made important contributions, especially in Afghanistan, but also in Iraq—but their armies are tiny and, given their populations and respective economic conditions, certain to remain so.


"Germany’s Bundeswehr is large, in principle, but it is still a conscript force,trained to a fairly low standard, and bound by constitutional limitations andserious national caveats that make it hard to deploy and harder to use."


In dismissive, even derisive speak:

"The decay of those military forces has reached the point that American leaders now worry that joint operations with U.S. forces are becoming difficult, if not impossible. The ineffectiveness of the European militaries is apparent in NATO's stumbling performance in Afghanistan."


Since it doesnt look like Commonwealth Russia is going to catapult scores of panzers amd motorized infantry battalions across Deutschland's panzer friendly Fulda Gap enroute to the coast of Spain anytime soon, Europa - will probably heed Deutschland's recent caveat to refrain from poking the bear in her 'near abroad'.


Allies in NATO and Europe will (aside from a projected French Naval buildup) remain prett much the same.

"The outcome at Strasbourg ought to increase skepticism in the United States about the military utility of NATO going forward–and not just with respect to the Afghan mission. Even some perceptive European officials had previously warned against the kind of feckless behavior evident at the summit.


"In January 2009, British Defense Secretary John Hutton blasted European governments for failing to bear their fair share of the collective defense burden, particularly in Afghanistan. He issued an especially pointed rebuke to Germany and other allies who seemed to believe that humanitarian and nation-building tasks were an adequate substitute for combat responsibilities.


"It isn't good enough to always look to the U.S." to assume dominant security responsibilities, Hutton admonished. "And this imbalance will not be addressed by parcelling up NATO tasks–the 'hard' military ones for the U.S. and a few others and the 'soft' diplomatic ones for the majority of Europeans."


Good luck!

High time Great Satan makes a fundamental reassessment of relationships with irresponsible security partners.


Art - "Strassbourg und Kehl"

Song of General Kim Il Sung

NoKo's unfree media propagandizes that her magical missile payload reached orbit (contrary to free media reports) and is sweetly rocking out with NoKo's coolest tune ever.

"Song For General Kim IL Sung" - check out the lyrics:

"Changbai Hills roll, stained with blood

Yalu River meanders, soaked in blood

Today Free Chosŏn's wreath of glories Radiates holy rays

Vast snowy fields of Manchuria please tell me

Endless night deep in the Taiga please tell me

Immortal guerilla warrior, who is he?

Outstanding patriot, who is it?

Liberator of the working people, our saviour

Democratic new Chosŏn, great Sun

We rally around the 20 Principles

Everywhere in North Korea is spring

Oh- Our brilliant and beloved General

Oh- Our exalted leader General Kim Il-sung"

Medvedev G20 Meds

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was generally satisfied with his meetings at the G20 Summit in London, having covered a wide range of issues - from the economy to global security to relations with America and with Russian neighbors.

At a press conference after the summit, President Medvedev called the forum a major step forward compared to the previous one. "If the first summit in Washington was somewhat introductory - some of the things that we discussed were very general in nature - now, it is very different," said the Russian leader. According to him, the joint declaration that has just been adopted contains a very specific set of topics and decisions on overcoming the global financial and economic crisis.

"In this sense, I believe that the work which was carried out, culminated in the proper result. This is a step forward, a step in the right direction," said Medvedev, admitting also that the attending parties have not been able to resolve all issues.

Medvedev also stressed that G20 members will get back to discussing the idea of a "supranational currency," which has been suggested by the Russian side:

"No one expected that today we are going to take a decision on this subject. The challenge now is for our national currencies to feel normal, but that does not mean that we are satisfied with the overall situation of national reserve currencies," explained the President. Medvedev also remained positive on his meeting with the US President Barack Obama, calling him a "constructive man" who gave very specific answers to the questions raised:

"I am glad that I got acquainted with the President of the United States. It was a good meeting. It seemed to me that we have been able to establish contact. There are many topics on which he and I see eye-to-eye - that I can say with absolute precision," said Medvedev, stating that there were still differences with the American side on many issues.

One common area with the US is the issue of financial bonuses at companies that are receiving government assistance. According to Medvedev, heads and CEOs of companies that get such assistance must "behave decently" and limit the size of their bonuses: "It is up to the companies whether to pay bonuses or not. But if a company is public or a company is owned by the state in whole or in substantial part, I believe that our dear managers, directors of the companies must practice self-restraint, even if they already have agreed to pay a high compensation," said Russian President.

At the summit, President Medvedev also spoke with the students at the London School of Economics, answering questions on Russia's relationship with the West and NATO. He briefly touched on the subject of protests in London, which led to some unrest in the city, saying that people should have the right to protest, but that he gets tense when talking about it: "I grew up in a country where there have been many revolutions, and I am always careful when referring to such popular expressions of discontent," joked Medvedev

Russian president called on NATO to be more responsible when making decisions, not to create problems for themselves and not to exacerbate relations with its neighbors, including with Moscow: "NATO needs to think about that, to preserve the unity and not to create problems with its neighbors. Before you decide to increase the size of the alliance, think about the consequences," stressed Medvedev, adding that "... frankly I told all this to my new comrade Barack Obama."

According to the Russian President, NATO should be responsible for making these kind of decisions and act on the principle of "do no harm": "You need to think about what would be the relations within the alliance, because the admission of new members brings new responsibilities and new challenges," said Medvedev, noting that "it's not easy to talk to all NATO members," although he declined to mention specific countries.

Turning to the issue of missile defense in Europe, Russian President once again called the possible placement of such a system an "error on the conscience" of the previous U.S. administration: "I think that all sorts of protective measures, such as missile defense - namely, a means of protection, including from threats that come from nations with unstable regimes - these kind of protective measures should be implemented together", said Medvedev, adding that many of his European colleagues share this stance.

However, he encouraged those present at the London School of Economics briefing that "there is every chance that Russia would not need to deploy its Iskander missile systems in the Kaliningrad region in response to the deployment of U.S. missile defense system in Europe: "We had a conversation on this subject with the President of the United States. At least I can say that today, there is a desire from the United States to listen to our arguments. They do not try to cut us off and say that this issue is resolved."

Responding to the question from a Georgian student, Dmitry Medvedev stated that he does not want to have any relations with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, or to communicate with him: "Everything that happened during last summer in the Caucasus is on the conscience of the Georgian leadership. This is my official stance. If the power ... changes [in Georgia], I am ready to discuss any topic. Russia wanted to have kind and good relations with Georgia."

Meanwhile, Georgia would like to continue its security relationship with the United States, and recently offered to send its troops to Afghanistan. President Saakashvili announced this initiative at a briefing with the Deputy Chairman of the Joint Staff of the US Armed Forces General James Cartwright.

However, experts are certain that Georgians will not receive special dividends even if a limited contingent of Georgian troops will get to Afghanistan.

An example of such reasoning is the fact that no meeting recently took place between US Vice President Biden and the Speaker of Georgian Parliament David Bakradze. At the briefing with Saakashvili, when General Cartwright unexpectedly advised Georgia to maintain peaceful relations with its neighbors, the pro-government TV company "Rustavi-2" quickly interrupted a live broadcast.

Submitted by Yevgeny Bendersky

Art - "Commonatowealth" by Leonardo

Congrats Dear Leader!

Congrats Dear Leader! Mighty magic Baekdu Mountain Man scored by all accounts a successful launch that makes up for the despotically unbearable failure of the "Six Scuds and A Dud Day" back on Great Satan's BDay party in '06.

This is significant. Great Satan's eye in the sky at NORAD (North American Aerospace Defense Command) indicates that NoKo didnt actually put a satellite in orbit

"North Korea launched a Taepo Dong 2 missile at 10:30 p.m. EDT Saturday which passed over the Sea of Japan/East Sea and the nation of Japan.

"Stage one of the missile fell into the Sea of Japan/East Sea. The remaining stages along with the payload itself landed in the Pacific Ocean.

No object entered orbit and no debris fell on Japan.
NORAD and USNORTHCOM assessed the space launch vehicle as not a threat to North America or Hawaii and took no action in response to this launch."

Internat'l reaction is pretty much split. The League of Not Hot Autocrazies and their Axis of Evil buds dont seem to mind, while the League of Hot! Democrazies are PO'd. Even with an emergency UN meeting called.

Totally fullfilling Dr Robert Kagan's caveat that when focus is directed at uncool, unfun and unfree regimes like rocket rich Noko, -

"Syria, Iran and Hiz'B'Allah - Russia and China tend to see " no problems "but useful partners in the great power struggle"

And that's the problem.

If NoKo's missile shot performed as promised - with Iranian helpers on hand, then Taepo Dong may be given dozens of new names as dozens of nations from Arab League to Venezuela line up to purchase and deploy dozens of bristling missiles.

Which means Great Satan's missile shield will be seen sooner rather than later.



Art "Taepo Dong is way better than No Dong" by Jay Fife

SoKo

As one of the Hot! Democrazies - SoKo is literally on the front line facing off against her evil autocratic sister to the North

Circus!

"There's only two types of guys out there
Ones that can hang with me And ones that are scared
So baby I hope that you came prepared. I run a tight ship so beware"

So coos Great Satan's Hoochie In Chief - the one of a kind Britney Spears on her latest CD "Circus". Tearing up the charts and the mega concert complexs Britney's homage to being large, in charge and sexyfully hot! could be applied to the NATO summit coming up fast.

Officially celebrating her 60th BDay (which is kinda strange - since Great Britain and Great Satan actually hooked up and formed NATO in the dark scary days of WWII back when Europa actually enjoyed combatting among themselves and before Great Satan made the Italians, Germans and Japanese all scream "GOD! PLEASE! STOP!"

And Great Satan has pretty much drove the "TransAtlantic Bargain." As NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer recently reminded everybody

"This was and remains an apt description. NATO enlists North America for the defence of Europe; it gives North American democracies a say in the evolution of European security; it provides the US with likeminded partners to face global challenges; and it gives Europe a voice in Washington."

Briefly - the NATO alliance worked wonders to constantly confront Collectivist time Russia and her evil mirror NATO called the "Warsaw Pact".

Fear of a rowdy Russia and her servitude communistic minions pouring panzers and troops through the Fulda Gap and blitzing clear across to Spain in 10 days was not unlike "Animal Farm" and the commune's fear of the return of the people farmers that had previously operated the place.

"Surely Comrades! You don't want Jones to come back!"

44's NSC cat is the Teuffel Hunden (nearly 2 meters tall!!) General Jim Jones Jr. Before he nailed the NSC gig, General Jones hung out at The Atlantic Council which recently hosted Deutschland and France's Ambassadors at an especial recon event.

France wants to rejoin NATO as a full blown bona fided member with all the priviledges and responsibilities there unto.

"(1) France’s return to NATO integrated command structures is welcomed by the majority of the public, contrary to other claims, enabling France to better influence the upcoming strategic concept review;

(2) NATO and EU defense are complementary – France will spend 300 billion Euros on defense between now and 2020; and

(3) the summit must tackle the issue of a new Secretary General and develop a strategic concept to improve civilian and financial aid for Afghanistan."

Vimont expressed concern about dialogue with the Taliban, noting that the Saudis have failed in the past.

Deutschland OTOH,

(1) NATO and EU cooperation is essential and must not conflict and compete with each other;

(2) we must keep an open door on membership for the West Balkans, as they have no alternative but membership;

(3) there is no alternative but to cooperate with Russia via the NATO-Russia Council, especially over missile defense; and

(4) we need commitment to arms control.


This is significant. As NATO's General Sec admitted, NATO is at a crucial cross roads.

Several cats point out that NATO's role is to focus on the Atlantic - keeping the sea lanes open, not Globestomping about the globe, upholding NATO treaties signed in good faith or killing killers in scary parts of the world where acid is sprayed in the faces of little girls.

"Rather than alternating between being an existential safeguard and a global expeditionary force, NATO must reassert its primary role as defender of the North Atlantic area, broadly defined. This would make both of the former missions more credible and effective."

This would mean cutting back on out-of-area ops like Afghanistan.

"It is not clear how they contribute to the defense of the alliance or deter future attacks upon it, particularly if some members oppose them."

Sure. Like NATO's goofy campaign to put Milosevic out of biz. Great Satan had to step in to take out the trash.

Some cats call for disolving NATO.

"Collectively, the Europeans don't need U.S. troops or dollars, both of which are in short supply anyway and needed elsewhere. Yet as long as the United States sustains the pretense that Europe cannot manage its own affairs, the Europeans will endorse that proposition, letting Americans foot most of the bill.

Only if Washington makes it clear that the era of free-riding has ended will Europe grow up."

44's NSC General Jones and the cats at Atlantic refute that kinda talk - though they admit the Straussbourg Kehl Summit is a last chance test and the answers they recommend are for Great Satan to lay down the law:

"Visions of a more effective, resilient partnership will be moot if allies fail to quell terrorism and turmoil in the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands. Afghanistan has become a crucible for the Alliance.

NATO’s credibility is on the line.

We must be clear regarding the threat, our goal, and our strategy:

Terrorist threats to the U.S. and Europe directly linked to the Afghanistan-Pakistan borderlands present the most immediate acute danger to transatlantic security today.

NATO's goal is to prevent any attacks and ensure that this region never again serves as a base for such threats."

Great Satan will be just like Britney's Ringmaster in "Circus"

"All eyes on me in the center of the ring just like a circus
When I crack that whip everybody gonna trip just like a circus
Don't stand there watching me, follow me, show me what you can do"


Pic - "Ringmaster Great Satan at NATO's Strassbourg Kehl Summit'