Friday, October 22, 2010

Internat'l Pariah


Prob the best book out yonder about the past, present and future of Iran is the essential "Persian Puzzle" by psychic and ex CIA military spy guy
Ken Pollack. It's timeless - as fresh n hot! today as when it was unleashed eons ago.

A massive hit piece by Dr P in Nat'l Interest
points out the flaws and most likely unsuccessful plans 44 has for deterring - or - rolling back - gay free Persia's hot sticky desires for new clear hegemony.

And it comes back to launching an enrichment interruptus naughty hottie panty air raid and bombing certain, especial locales belonging to Preacher Command - because nonprofit jawflapping is - well - totally non profit.

"...Iran’s hard-liners have shown absolute consensus in consistently maintaining that Iran needs, and is entitled to, its nuclear program. Some have gone so far as to question the utility of Iran remaining part of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT); some have openly supported the acquisition of nuclear weapons. Ayatollah Muhammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi, a member of the Assembly of Experts and an important adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, wrote that Tehran “must” produce nuclear weapons even if Iran’s “enemies” don’t like it.

"...The hard-liners overwhelmingly neither want nor care about having a better relationship with the United States. President Ahmadinejad is the exception that proves the rule: alone among the hard-liners, he has called for negotiations with the Americans, but only to demonstrate that Iran is so powerful and important that it must be seen as an equal by the United States. Ahmadinejad has been fiercely opposed by the rest of the Islamic Republic’s hard-line establishment, including (as best we can tell) by Khamenei himself."

"...It is worth starting any discussion of the military option by recognizing that, unless Tehran does something stupidly belligerent, the United States will not have any standing in terms of international law (or international opinion) to mount such an attack. All of the UNSC resolutions against the Iranian nuclear program have very clearly stipulated that they do NOT authorize the use of force. This reflects the Russian, Chinese and scores of other countries’ deep and widespread animosity toward a military solution. Any unprovoked American attack on Iran is likely to be harshly condemned across the globe.

Oh, really?  

So what?

Harsh condemnation hasn't really seemed to hurt or unable Sudan - the world's only nation/state with a sitting leader indicted for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Or Syria - literally bombing a sister states political cadre out of existence - not to mention fiddling about with WMD, hanging with terrorists or training and giving WMD delivery systems to official enemy terrorist groups.

Collectivist China comes to mind - harsh condemnation about Tiannamen Square hasn't seemed to bother anyone since.

Or Iran's not so long ago electile dysfunction - though, 44's Bystander in Chief mode actually lessened harsh condemnation of Preacher Command killing their own people in the streets.

In fact - if bombing Iran's sensitive, tender portions like new clear chicanery in sweetly proportioned hits specifically designed in a fun, friendly way towards Iran's general population would maybe sorta totally backfire:

"...It is also worth keeping in mind that Iran probably will retaliate against the United States. Again, this isn’t certain, but the evidence indicates that Iran does retaliate whenever it is (or believes it is) attacked. The Islamic Republic has a formidable capacity to employ terrorism and a lot of allies, like Hiz'B'Allah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, who could also cause a great deal of damage on Tehran’s behalf. If there is anyone out there who might be able to replicate a terrorist attack as terrible as 9/11, it is Iran. 

"...Tehran can also ramp up its support of Taliban fighters battling U.S. troops in Afghanistan, and it could turn up the heat on American allies in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq. Now, all of this might be a worthwhile price to pay if the United States could eliminate the threat of an Iranian nuclear program altogether, but given the fairly modest delays that air strikes seem likely to impose—and the damage to U.S. policy in the aftermath—these risks further suggest that the costs of an attack outweigh the benefits. 


This makes a rather left handed compliment that attacking the regime itself - Preacher Command, The Revo Guard, al Qods etc in a regime killing strike - is the way to go.

 Trashing Iran's sensitive sites or regime may involve other strikes on multiple enemies. Hiz'B'Allah could get a dose to keep their heads down or taken head on and Syria could wake up on that wonderful day to find her entire Air Force annihilated on the ground.

American Stealth bombers could target Iran’s air defense and anti-ship missile sites scattered around the Gulf, followed by what military analystical cats call an "Effects Based Operation," as a naval blockade of the Straits of Hormuz backed by anti-missile Aegis class cruisers and destroyers, together with a guarantee of free passage for all non-Iranian oil shipping (thus reassuring the world that energy supplies will continue to flow) may be easily and simultaneously launched.

Special Ops and airborne forces would seize Iran’s main oil pumping station at Kargh Island and capture or neutralize its offshore oil facilities.

Air Force and Navy war jets could take out Iran’s extremely vulnerable military and economic infrastructure, including its electrical grid, transportation links, gasoline refineries, port facilities, as well as air strikes against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The air strike would target the headquarters of the IRGC's elite Qods force. With an estimated strength of up to 90,000 fighters, the Qods' stated mission is to spread Iran's revolution of 1979 throughout the region. Few tears would be shed by anyone if al Qods magically disappeared.

Truth is that the Iranian regime is uniquely vulnerable to this kind of campaign. 90% of Iran’s oil production and facilities are sweetly lying in or near the Gulf, and are shamelessly exposed to naval or air attacks.

With the exception of three Russian built Kilo-class subs (which would have to be killed in the opening days of the campaign - natch), the Iranian navy is tiny and actually quite pitiful.

Annihilating the entire regime or wounding it unto death would also have the wonderful effect of nulling and voiding any inherent rally 'round the flag emotions.

Since Iran imports nearly 40% of its gasoline, an air campaign that destroys its refineries and gas supplies would leave the mullahs and its trucks, tanks, and planes starved for fuel in two weeks.

Or less.

And Great Satan should revel in any internat'l condemnation - laughing it off. After all, when it comes to autocrazies, control freak and free choice haters - Great Satan has always been an Internat'l Pariah

Pic - "Your promises that you promised are about as real an air guitar"


Anonymous said...

Needs a slice of deep dish (or two)

Steven N. said...

The US already has a legal justification for decapitating Iran, Self-Defense. It's well known Iran has been directly and indirectly involved in engaging US forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Render said...

Iran declared war on the US in
1979 and has never rescinded that declaration.