Friday, December 9, 2011

Overt Covert War

So... how would vClausewitz put it?

The Frog of War?  or "Wunderliche Dreifaltigkeit mein schatzen bitte!" nicht wahr?

 See - despite reasoned reduxing via Vom Kriege, events au courrant make a wonderfully crunk case that violent emo,  the sexyfull interplay of chance and probability and of course - the political handmaiden thingy -  political calculations driven by reason. It seems semi sorta unlikely that emo, chance, and rationality will cease to be like key players in war (as in organized conflict) any time soon, regardless of State and Non State actor outers.  

Despite inappropriate, boring assetted hangwringing and - let us speak plainly here - worrying about the wrong thing -  
 Maybe it won't happen. Maybe the war talk is more about destabilisation than a full-scale attack. But there are undoubtedly those in Great Britain and Great and Little Satan who think otherwise. And the threat of miscalculation and the logic of escalation could tip the balance decisively. Unless opposition to an attack on Iran gets serious, this could become the most devastating Middle East war of all.


See, both Satans, Saudilanders and Great Britain have been posse in tandem - not always on the up and up w/each other about various hi jinks and chicanery sweetly delivered up Persia's tender, sensitive portions in an overtly covertly way.

Versus the Pre PBUH cat Chess Masters, the Kings of Strip Poker are shamelessly  xforming asymmetrical warfare into an art form and sexyfully deigned and "designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership."

Check it
“Some of the concern in the expert community is that in going this route we’re unleashing forces we cannot control.”

Some of those funintended consequences could be setting up Preacher Command and her proxylicious minions to over reachingly over react, suffering a pre plotted 2nd wave ala conventional warfare via vManstein"s Kharkov infamous Back hand B Slap

GsGf's Military Revolution and Poli Change cat gives up hot deets and big phased cookies about possible Iranian counters
 Iran could venture to deploy Qods Force troops into Afghanistan to destroy aid projects, ambush troops, and interdict International Security Assistance Force convoys coming into the southern part of the country from Chaman and Spin Boldak in western Pakistan, not far from Iranian soil. Such convoys are of course already subject to intermittent stoppages by the Pakistani army.

Great Satan's present antagonisms with the Pakistani generals offer an opening for Iranian diplomacy. Iran could offer more favorable terms for gas and pipeline projects and support for Pakistani interests and aspirations in Afghanistan. In return, Pakistan could further restrict foreign troop convoys into Afghanistan.

Great Satan's naval presence in the Persian Gulf offers numerous possibilities. The Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain are within missile range, at least one carrier group is always inside the Gulf, and support ships routinely transit the Straits of Hormuz. All would be vulnerable to Iranian aircraft, missiles, and ships - especially if "swarming" tactics were used. Pentagon war-gaming of such attacks has reportedly been less than assuring.

Even a brief skirmish in the Gulf would send oil prices soaring on world markets, perhaps 15% in a day or two. Many economies would be adversely affected and world opinion might not side with Iran's opponents in affixing blame. Paradoxically, soaring prices would be a boon for Tehran.

Non-diplomatic efforts to press Iran to abandon its nuclear program have thus far been unsuccessful. They are getting out of control and are leading to violent retaliation and regional conflict.

The efforts are also firming government and popular support for nuclear research. They are also solidifying IRGC power in the state and changing Iran from a theocracy with a zealous military to a military-dominated bureaucracy with a clerical body legitimizing it. 

And militaries often prefer violent actions to diplomatic ones

Pic - "Iran, Les Choix des Armes?"