Monday, December 12, 2011

Art Of Containment


As best understood - it's the result of the act, attempt or art of containment. A policy of checking the expansion or influence of a hostile power or ideology, as by the creation of strategic alliances or support of client states or even non state actor outers in areas of conflict or unrest. 

44's NS Something cat lays it out to play it out thusly:
“Iran today is fundamentally weaker, more isolated, more vulnerable and badly discredited than ever.”(PDF - right here ya'll)
Yes sir - Preacher Command of course  is also fundamentally way more advanced, way more capable and way more closer than ever to achieving new clear deterring weaponry. 
Not to bore your britches off (the old tricks are the best tricks, nicht wahr?) it's the multipoint initiation bay bee! Granting Persia a very scary new clear date of 2012 - next year!

Using the I word an amazing 17 times NSA Donilon kinda sorta redux's HRC's new clear umbrella 

 “We will continue to build a regional defense architecture that prevents Iran from threatening its neighbors. We will continue to deepen Iran’s isolation, regionally and globally.”
and getting Iran all isolated conjures shades of the dreaded containment mythical meme!  

Why cause?

Containment requires credibility, a resource Great Satan will have drained if, after numerous warnings to the contrary, we permit Tehran to cross the nuclear threshold. And no matter how isolated, a nuclear Iran is likely to spark a destabilizing cascade of proliferation. Despite its own isolation, North Korea shares its nuclear technology. Iran might, too. Tehran’s enemies, led by Saudi Arabia, would seek safety behind their own nuclear deterrent

And Iran and Little Satan, as former defense undersecretary Eric Edelman has argued, would have incentives to initiate a nuclear first strike, potentially dragging Great Satan into the conflict. All this would severely diminish American influ and drive up oil prices.
The Cost of Containment makes for amazingly discombobulated jäger bombish chiz - like the girl that repeatedly claims she's NOT attracted to you - yet pulls her pants down on the ride home.

Forget the PACRIM Pivet, forget Offshore Balancing (LOL), forget hot desires to unAss the ME and leave unhinged appearing elements to their own sectarian or hegemonic designs - 

Containment will require intense levels of engagement, involvement, muscle and bling bling  - enough to make last millennium's NATO/Warsaw Pact era look like a bargain at VicSec.

Pic - "Self Contained II"


Rob said...

Containment vis a vis Iran is, IMO a bad strategy.

It worked with the Soviets,who were at least semi-rational actors. It won't with Iran, particularly after they go nuclear.

The Twelver Shia sect that dominates Iran believes that war and chaos will bring forth the Hidden Imam to rule over the earth in the name of Allah.

They are the sort of people that would hang plastic keys around 12 and 13 year old kid's necks, tell them these were 'keys to paradise' and use them as living minesweepers and suicide bombers. They did exactly that during the Iran/Iraq war, and Ahmadinejad was one of the basij trainers who recruited and trained them.

MAD will not work with these folks.

Another problem with containment is that the Russians aren't going to comply, and neither will some of the EU. Plus, thanks to Obama, we're skedaddling out of Iraq and leaving the Shi'ite bloc headed by Moqtada al Sadr in charge. So isolating them isn't going to happen.

And since Obama has already said he'll veto the only possible sanctions that might have an impact at this point( targeting Iran's Central Bank so they can't process their oil payments and targeting imports of refined fuel) there's really just two options. We can retreat to fortress America and hope the Mullahs don't hand off a nuke or two to Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or some other proxy of theirs or we can do something forceful about it.


Anonymous said...

"The Cost of Containment makes for amazingly discombobulated jäger bombish chiz - like the girl that repeatedly claims she's NOT attracted to you - yet pulls her pants down on the ride home."

Good grief! Great analogy. Shocking but great nevertheless

Raedwulf said...

Containment? How about this for a nightmare scenario, Iran develops a nuclear bomb and supplies Hugo Chavez of Venezuela with the bomb on one of their nice ballistic missiles to blackmail the U.S.

Ms. Penny said...

HOW can you say our goal was never to de-"Islamize" Iraq, Af-Pak and ME? Whether via COIN or public diplomacy that is the goal. Check Egypt, Libya, Syria and the rest of the ME--yes, you don't want Islamists in power, that's the end game.

As for PC-COIN, yes you want to stop the Evangelists from giving out Bibles and stop ST-6 members from riding around with "Infidel" and Crusader crosses, but make NO mistake the end game is to shut out the Islamists--And WE are already losing!!!