Containment Myth

One of the brightest stars in Great Satan's diplopolititary skies unleashes a raison l'terribles

"Quietly, the policy consensus in official Washington appears to be shifting toward the idea that the emergence of a nuclear Iran would be a manageable - even benign - event.

"In recent weeks, a rash of articles and expert commentaries in such publications as The Washington Post, the New York Times and Foreign Affairs have floated the idea that, just like the Soviet Union in its day, a nuclear Iran can, in fact, be successfully contained and deterred.

"But can it? A closer examination of Iranian ideology and of the dynamics of deterrence offers ample reason for skepticism that, when it comes to nuclear possession, Tehran will, in fact, behave just like Moscow.

"For one thing, deterrence and containment aren't automatic, and nuclear possession is not necessarily stabilizing. Policymakers today tend to forget that the "balance of terror" that dominated relations between Washington and Moscow in the latter decades of the Cold War was preceded by about 15 years of bilateral crises that brought the world perilously close to nuclear annihilation.

"This instability had a great deal to do with the immaturity of both the United States and the Soviet Union, which back then were novice nuclear possessors uncertain of how to wield - and manage - their newfound atomic clout.

"Only later did Moscow and Washington (and subsequently, Beijing) manage to strike some sort ofmodus vivendi. Until they did, the world was a very dangerous place.

The Middle East is likely to go the same way.

"The geopolitical jockeying among these nearly nuclear states, and between them and a newly nuclear-armed Iran, is likely to make the Middle East a dramatically more dangerous place in the years ahead.

"None of which should blind policymakers in Washington to the fact that the rise of a radical, nuclear-armed regional hegemon in the Middle East would constitute a major setback for international security and for long-term American interests.

"Adopting a policy of containment would only serve to make such an outcome more likely.

Pic "Nothing cool about a nuked up Preacher Command"