Well, well well - Great Satan's original ganksta think tank reduxes a caveat of sorts about prepping for the aftermath of a Little Satan blitz on Mullahopolis' high priced enrichment entourage of the new clear persuasion.
"What will Iran do in the wake of an Israeli attack that Iran will almost certainly assume has U.S. support?"
Uh, anything they want?
The Revo Guard led counterstrike could swing both ways -
From totally off the hook like launching 11 thousand missiles a minute turning the gulf, Iraq and the Straights of Hormuz into an inferno to "...the first of hundreds of Shehab-3 rockets, pre-targeted at Tel Aviv, lift off from Tehran" to strike Little Satan to Hiz'B'Allah terror cells acting out in malls, schools and daycares within Continental Great Satan to Fajr 5 rocket attacks on Ft Huachuca, Arizona's Army Intelligence School courtesy of Comrade Hugo's HBA buds trekking into Mexico.
"Tehran's counter-punch would not have to be so bold to be effective and deadly.
"A less discussed, but equally dangerous, option for Iran is to dramatically step up its support of insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan. This response is far more likely and, consequently, more worrisome.
"Iran already provides financial and military support to Shiite militias in Iraq, including the most violent and extreme among them. Weapons caches that include improvised explosive devices can be traced directly to Iran. Tehran is also a likely source of mortars, short-range rockets, rocket-propelled grenades and a variety of small arms and ammunition.
"Iran has a history of supplying surrogates to do its fighting. Along with Syria, Iran provided Hiz'B'Allah sophisticated weapons used against Israel in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Perhaps of most concern to Israel was a variety of rockets with ranges of 20 to 100 kilometers. During that war, despite the best efforts of the Israeli Defense Force, the daily barrage of rockets did not end until the cease-fire took effect.
"Hiz'B'allah also employed high-end antitank guided missiles, which took a heavy toll on the Israeli Army, as well as air-to-ground missiles, anti-ship missiles and even unmanned aerial vehicles. None of these weapons has shown up in significant numbers in Iraq or Afghanistan—yet.
"If Iran did introduce them, the level of violence and the risk to civilians and military installations would escalate significantly. Air-to-ground missiles and antitank guided missiles, integrated with improvised explosive devices, would dramatically increase risks for U.S. and coalition soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
"Particularly worrisome would be the introduction of portable air-defense missiles, commonly known as MANPADS, into Afghanistan. Mobility in Afghanistan depends upon airplanes and helicopters. Threats to flight would severely hamper current operations.
"In this regard, we should remember that what unhinged the Soviet Union in Afghanistan was a similar increase in enemy capability when the United States gave the Mujahedeen Stinger missiles. The battlefield, including cities, could get much deadlier.
"Iran can accomplish this without directly engaging coalition personnel with its own military forces. In essence, it can deliver a Lebanon-like war to Iraq and Afghanistan. It's a scenario the United States and Israel must seriously consider before pulling the trigger.
True! So what?
It also functions as a wonder raison d'etre to forsake attacking nukey stuff and kill the Iranian regime instead!