Wednesday, August 31, 2011

4 Options

Suriya al- Kubra!

Non profit jawflapping at the highest levels of the UN reveal Great Satan, Great Britain, Frankreich, Deutschland and that Portuguese place are hot to tighten up the vise on choice cats in the Allawicious illegit Syrian regime and the nation/state of Syria.

Using weapons embargoes and f'nancial sanctimonious sanctions in a fun, friendly attempt to reinforce desired behavior with the American Ambassador attacking acolytes of Dr General President for Life Bashar Bay Bee - a worthy move. Alas Commonwealth Russia, the autocrats friend, totally queered the mix by offering up a fakebelieve draft pleading with the regime to implement the reforms al Assad promised and for the Syrian opposition to hold talks with the regime. 

Yay! Internat'l Community!

Let's just cut to it, shall we?

There are four mean and scary options stashed in Great Satan's overnight bag. The semi psychic (he's also kinda hot) academic Vulcan enabler Dr O'Hanlon (Oh! He got game bay bee!) gives up the deets:
Courtney, the 'quiz' about what options we might have to stop the slaughter grows increasingly haunting. It is worth surveying the tools at our disposal to contemplate what might come next - if not immediately, then perhaps down the road.

Let's start with the extreme option and then work down the list.

1. Invasion to carry out regime change:

Even if done with complete political correctness, a UN mandate, and strong Arab  participation, is very unappealing. Syria is not dissimilar from Iraq in size, and as such one would have to think in terms of 100,000 to 150,000 troops for several years of post-invasion stabilization. 

Casualties to foreign forces alone could number well into the hundreds or low thousands, even if Assad did not use chemical weapons in response.  

2. No-fly and no-go zone

Assad should not, however, take complete solace in such analysis because the international community's options do not end there. If and when the Syrian opposition ever requested it, and key Arab states supported it, another option would be a form of a no-fly and no-go zone. It would be similar in ways to what the outside world did in Iraq in the 1990s to help protect the Kurds. 

One or two major parts of Syria might be protected in this way, at least reasonably well, by a combination of outside airpower and perhaps a limited number of boots on the ground.

This option is not ripe at the moment, however. Syria's opposition is too fractured, and the Arab world, while far more critical of Assad than a couple of months ago, is hardly ready to go to this extreme. Neither, of course, is Russia. 

And it would hardly be easy; it could for example set the international community up for a multi-year operation that effectively partitioned Syria and required a couple of divisions of outside forces to police. Assad should know it is there, if things get a lot worse, but at the moment even Syrian dissidents do not appear to favor such an idea.

3. Naval Quarantine

A third option is a maritime operation to enforce strong sanctions on Syria. This approach would not close off all Syrian trade. But especially if the Ottomans - and perhaps even Iraq and Jordan - cooperated at their land crossings, we could not only impose prohibitions on certain kinds of trade with Assad's Syria, but enforce those prohibitions through a naval quarantine. As in Iraq in the 1990s, perhaps we would focus on the oil trade and various high-technology sectors with such sanctions.

The naval assets required would be easily within the capacity of NATO's fleets, ideally operating in conjunction with Arab partners. This option would not of course guarantee that Assad would change course, but it could allow us to seize control of much of his economy - and again, floating the idea may serve as a partial deterrent, since he should be made to realize that we do in fact have ways to escalate well short of outright invasion.

4. Air Power

Finally, an air campaign inspired by the Kosovo model could be used to punish the regime and its cronies. It could go after command and control assets and places like banks, electricity grids, and Baathist party facilities. It would not be able to protect civilians throughout the country, of course. 

A punitive air campaign, perhaps combined with the naval quarantine discussed just above, could magnify severalfold the consequences for the Assad regime and inner circle of their terrible repression of their own people. That in turn could increase the odds that the regime would relent, or that a dissident group would carry out a coup to remove the president.

There is no guarantee such options would work, yet it may well be time to starting talking and thinking about them. 

Pic - "And then there is the Little Satan option..." 

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Adventures Of Abu Muqawama

Hey y'all!

The southern bits of Great Satan has always produced uber savvy cats in nearly any endeavor. Dr Condi Rice, The Outkast, Army Major Michael Few - their exploits, achievements and accomplishments are the stuff of legend.

And one cat able to jump start little girls hearts with a single appearance at 50 metres, is the rogue cuz of the world famous counter insurgency COINlicious joint Small Wars Journal. Provocative as wearing a thong to church and nom d'guerr'd as the Expert Poppa of Resistance - it's the famous Abu Muqawama.

Not to be confused with the infamous evil Abu Moqawama, the good Abu has led an adventurous life that could make a made for TV mini series while creating an essential read with "This Man's Army."

When Captain Ex became exCaptain Ex and made the move into making his brain more bigger, it was easy for for funk obsessed critics to dismiss the new millennium's wunder killer kind  as  another of CNAS cadres Das Unaussprechlichen COIN Külten's expert killers of killers who were sweetly turning AFPAK into a safe word.

Sev cats on the intell T ism side of the scale secretly whispered Abu was either - taking terrible risks - hanging out with creepy Hiz'B'allah cats in Leb, naming his site with a transliteration of the same name as the collective of rocket happy jerks led by their gross, overtly robust Body Part Collector General and getting all paw paw (no fun of any kind) on Drones Gone Wild!

Or was Abu playing enemies with the goal of assuring their annihilation - often in slow and painful ways?

Now the lid has been blown off perhaps the most audacious combination of distraction, deception death and destruction since 007 hooked up with Pushy Galore.  

Where there's reek - there's blunt as the chronic kids say and it is an assassinary fact over 300 ppl have stopped breathing in amazing feats of cold blooded chicanery on a regional scale since Abu hit DC, Europa and the ME.

In a fun, fauxconspiratorial spirit - (not unlike 2nd guessing certain visitors that always seem to preclude the disappearance of certain underthings) yours truly was able to snatch a quick aperitif with one of Great Satan's exceptional  warrior cats Dr Captain Andrew Exum/Abu Muqawama (Rangers break stuff all the time, nicht wahr?) at a magical spot not far from where Americans shed American blood to ensure even more Americans would be free.

NOT ONE WORD HAS BEEN OMITTED

Sir, after being recruited as an assassin/spy is it true your code name is "Captain Tickles" because of the beard?
"No comment."
In Little Satan recently when you rec'v'd the "Dual Loyalty" Award - what was the amount of the cash prize?
"17 NIS, a firm handshake, and a cappuccino (to go) from Espresso Bar."
Iran's al Qods Brigadier Suleimani claims he presented proof to Hiz'B'Allah's High Command you were responsible for bombing Imad Muganiyah out of existence - yet was stymied by HbA's Interior Security. He now says they were co opted by you in several paint ball games. Did you also collect intell on HbA rocketry locations during these co options?

"Like Ricky Bobby on the racetrack, I play for keeps in paintball, Courtney. I am proud of my 4-3 lifetime record against the Boys."
Are you Captain Rocktober 2012 in CNAS' Men of COIN Calendar due in November?

"Oh, please, don’t give John Nagl any ideas."
Syrian Air Force Intelligence claims Abu Muqawama is in charge of inciting sectarian strife from Aegypt to Aleppo in an effort to divy and conquer a distracted Arab League. How of much of a role did you play in igniting that flaming hot Arab Spring?

"Well, like a lot of people who claim to know something about the region, I actually never saw this one coming. A few voices out there – my friends Shadi Hamid and Steve McInerney come to mind – have been warning of the instability of Arab autocracies for years now. But most political scientists working on the region have, as Greg Gause points out, neglected to carefully study Arab state militaries over the past few decades and have thus missed a lot of the signs that might have pointed toward regime collapse." 

"I myself am just happy to have been able to spend some time in Cairo in the days following the collapse of the Mubarak regime. The environment there, as well as in Little Satan during the 6 August protests, was intoxicating. No wonder so many journalists and other observers are getting swept up in the excitement."
Sources in Mahdi Army (v4.0) whisper the reason that Mookie has yet to return publicly in Iraq is he is still frightened beyond repair at a near hit attempted by you that dang near killed him on a recent road trip to Lebanon. Are the orders still open to kill or capture Mookie?
"You know, Moqtada al-Sadr and I really fell out as friends when Uncle Tupelo broke up. I prefer Wilco to Son Volt, but Moqtada can’t stand Jeff Tweedy and thinks he’s pompous. We’ve just never been able to speak in a civil manner since, oh, 1995 or so."

Pic - "Just like in a movie - with a happy ending" 

Monday, August 29, 2011

Democrazy World!

Euphoric!

The delightfully delightful tingly feeling of being absolutely correct on nigh ev matter of un and import.

Despite dissing dismissals as arrogant hubris (who what?) by the sad collective of unfun unexceptionals that for decency's sake shall remain linkless (many of which most certainly would fail to recog a good time even if it sat on their face), ppl are catching on to the concept of democrazy world.

The truth is that a world without dictators may not be such a lark. Yes, it has never been harder than it is today to be a dictator. An army of Western experts and activists now stands at the ready to shine a spotlight on human rights abuses or gross corruption. If you order a violent crackdown, you know it probably will be captured on an iPhone and broadcast around the world in real time.

Totalitarianism, the ultimate expression of dictatorship, is virtually extinct. It was just too expensive. The Josef Stalins, Pol Pots, and Idi Amins belong to a distinctly 20th-century version of dictatorship. No one wants to be NoKo or Burma. Police states are passé. Maybe we don’t need to fear the men in white coats after all.

And picture, for a moment, the benefits of a dictator-free world. No more rogue regimes sponsoring terrorists or giving haven to mass murderers. No more famines in NoKo. The humanitarian benefits would be enormous. Once the last tyrant had fallen, imagine the creativity that would pour forth from the millions of people who had known nothing besides fear, repression and the best ways to survive it. We could build a museum to dictatorship — perhaps in Rangoon — where we could view their portraits, remember their crimes and wonder how men (they’re almost all men) could be so cruel to so many.

Today the people in Libya, and across the ME, are demonstrating that the most entrenched dictators can be challenged, and in some cases, uprooted. What about Africa or Asia? No one would be crazy for thinking it could happen again.

Pic - "Nunc Scio Tenebris Lux, bay bee!"

Saturday, August 27, 2011

WoW Time!

Oh, it is so my darlings.

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Especially cool to shout out Right Truth for snatching the top spot and the cash prize for this weeks winning bit. A long time site about countrterrorism, 'ligion and politics (you know all the stuff ya can't bring up when knocking back an imbibilicious dranks with drunk ppl). GsGf's colleague of long standing the one and only Debbie Hamilton was one of the 1st of the old breed to notice yours truly way back when stuff like curfews, chaperones and no boys in the room were de rigour (actually it's still de rigueur - one of sev benefits of dependence on benevolent despots who despise fun of any kind perhaps).

Debbie! Congrats schatzie, you rock and thanks for tolerating a goofy kid with audacious ideas and a somewhat uncommunicable communicative style!

Without further adieu or a don't -


Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! Do us up on Facebook and Twidder Bay bee!

Friday, August 26, 2011

Regime Changin!

Perhaps the most charming charm Great Satan has exhibited (aside from angling her body diplopolitaire' to create other angles) is the killer cool heap of trashed out despots, dicts and autocrats she's tossed on the junk heap since the new millennium broke unto us.

The guy with one eye (hot rumours whisper he's a moped enthusiast) Mullah Omar, that S'Ddam cat, President General for Life Pervez, and now Colonel Khadaffy. Not counting cats in Pyramidland or the Tunisian Squeeze.

Let's just cut right to it, shall we?
Libyarvention made a great deal of sense in the short and long runs. In the short run, we have rid the world of another awful dictator. We’ve removed Mullah Omar, Saddam Hussein, and now Qaddafi — that is without a doubt, a great benefit to Great Satan and the world. We should have done more to push out the dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, and we should be doing a lot more to remove one of the real cancers in the Middle East, Assad in Syria. We will be advancing our interests by simply getting rid of these dictators. 

In the longer term, regime change in these places will do a lot to change the conditions that have allowed extremist "Slamic j!hadism  to flourish. The Arab Spring may have been a knock-down blow to al-Qaeda, which is becoming irrelevant in its political appeal now that young Arabs can redirect their valid frustrations on their own regimes in a productive way.

And in the longest term, there is hope for democracies in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Egypt, and Syria, but I realize how difficult it is and how long it will take, and Great Satan shouldn't be pushing to turn all of these countries into little Jeffersonian Virginia’s. Yet if made into democracies, the benefits for our nat'l security could be enormous, beyond even draining the swamp that birthed al-Qaeda and radical "Slamic terrorism. There is one empirical truth about internat'l relations over the last two centuries, and that is that democracies do not attack each other. 

Political scientists themselves cannot agree on why, but if we can convert our former enemies into democracies, as we did after World War II, it would make those nations at least no longer hostile to, if not outright friends of, Great Satan.
Direct hit! Fire For Effect!

Democracy is possible in the ME, Courtney - and even if true democracy fails, we will still be partially successful if Great Satan and her allies can create governments that are less oppressive. Such govs are unlikely to harbor terrorists and eliminating terrorism is Great Satan"s principle gig.
And now looks like Dr General President For Life Bashar Bay Bee in Syria may or may not get ye olde heave ho.  

Not to put too fine a point on it,  there are certain truths about even fooling about with despotries - as if they are just like SoKo, Canada or Alabama.  

L'stache' grand:
First, 44 erred badly in consistently believing that Assad or his regime had any potential for true reform. Since Assad took office in 2000 upon his father’s death (in lieu of his elder brother), the regime’s continued its domestic repression, its support for internat'l terrorism, its pursuit of new clear, biological and chemical weapons and its increasing dominance by Iran.

The inescapable conclusion from this massive record of malevolence is that Bashar was either fully complicit, or utterly ineffective in stopping it. Persistent, willful blindness to this reality has been central to Great Satan"s feckless Syria policy.

Second, 44 should have declared regime change to be its goal in Syria long ago, not just when protests finally erupted. 43 gave Damascus a chance after the overthrow of S"Ddam Hussein to renounce terrorism, give up weapons of mass destruction and make peace with Little Satan. "Bashar Bay bee", as you so aptly put it, chose to do nothing.

From that moment, we should have pursued regime change Courtney, aiding legit opposition groups and thereby empowering responsible Syrian believers in a free and open society. Instead, we face an environment today where radical "Slamists are potential successors to the Ba’athists.
Tyrannies - Holy, royal or secular killed more of their own citizens than foreigners. Despots caused the refugee flows; dictators caused the poverty; any prob found in 20th century is correctly and sweetly attributed to control freaks, autocrats and VIP's in Hell, jail or exile.

Pic - "Every threat to internat’l order after the Cold War involved a gov that fell short of Western and economic standards. Every security problem that Great Satan felt called upon to address would be alleviated, if not solved altogether, if the regimes responsible for them could be remade"

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Sino Mil Sec 2011 Report

It's time!

Red China - the world's largest autocracy of the old school Collectivist type gets all Congressfied with an especial annual pdfing Congressional Report bout Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.

Ton of hot deets, cool maps, missile stuff  - you name it - the Sino Mil Sec thang be game it!


“Although China’s expanding military capabilities can facilitate cooperation in pursuit of shared objectives, they can also increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation. Strengthening our military-to-military relationship is a critical part of our strategy to shape China’s choices as we seek to capitalize on opportunities for cooperation while mitigating risks.”


East Wind! The old keep your buds close and your enemies/frenemies closer meme (at Taiwan's expense) gets full play, following up on Admiral Mike's Military to Military Super Friends Hot Line.

So how bout them expanding military capabilities hooked up China Strategy? (Pg 22) Peoples Lib Army War hoes have developed quite a set of Nat'l Military Strategic Guidelines for the New Period

Tenets of Active Defense include the following: 

Overall, our military strategy is defensive. We attack only after being attacked. But our operations are offensive.

Space or time will not limit our counter-offensive. We will not put boundaries on the limits of our offenses.

We will wait for the time and conditions that favor our forces when we do initiate offensive operations.

We will focus on the opposing force’s weaknesses.

Near Seas Defense.

Offshore Defense is an overarching strategic concept that directs the PLA Navy to prepare for three essential missions including: keeping the enemy within limits and resisting invasion from the sea; protecting the nation’s territorial sovereignty; and, safeguarding the motherland’s unity and maritime rights.

The so-called near seas, which remain a primary focus for the Navy, include the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and South China Sea. Increasingly, the PLA is taking on missions that reflect China’s expanding commercial and diplomatic interests beyond the near seas, into the ―far seas which include the Philippine Sea and beyond. PLA Navy doctrine for maritime operations focuses on six offensive and defensive campaigns: blockade, anti-sea lines of communication, maritime-land attack, anti-ship, maritime transportation protection, and naval base defense.


The Peoples Lib Navy appears primarily focused on contingencies within the first and second island chains, with emphasis on a potential conflict with U.S. forces over Taiwan or a territorial dispute.

PRC military theorists refer to two “island “chains” along China‟s maritime perimeter. The First Island Chain includes Taiwan and the Ryuku Islands, the Second Island Chain extends from Japan to Guam.

Ground forces are tasked with defending China’s borders, ensuring domestic stability, and exercising regional power projection. PLA ground forces are transitioning from a static defensive force allocated across seven internal MRs, oriented for positional, mobile, urban, and mountain offensive campaigns; coastal defense campaigns; and landing campaigns, to a more offensive and maneuver-oriented force organized and equipped for operations along China’s periphery.

Peoples Lib Army has emphasized the development of new types of combat forces, optimized its organization and structure, strengthened military training in conditions of informatization, accelerated the digitized upgrading and retrofitting of main battle weaponry, organically deployed new types of weapon platforms, and significantly boosted its capabilities in long-distance maneuvers and integrated assaults.


The ground forces appear to be leading the PLA’s effort to experiment with ad hoc, multi-service, joint tactical formations to execute integrated joint operations.


Air Warfare. 



The PLA Air Force continues its conversion from a force for limited territorial defense to a more flexible and agile force able to operate off-shore in both offensive and defensive roles, using the U.S. and Russian air forces as models. Mission focus areas include: strike, air and missile defense, early warning and reconnaissance, and strategic mobility. The PLA Air Force also has a leading role in China’s planning for anti-access and area denial operations.

The PLA’s new missions are also driving discussions about the future of the PLA Air Force, where a general consensus has emerged that protecting China’s global interests requires an increase in the Air Force’s long-range transportation and logistics capabilities. In September 2010, the PLA Air Force conducted an unprecedented deployment of Su-27 fighter aircraft to Turkey to participate in joint air exercises with the Turkish Air Force. 


China has also been investing in stealth technology, as evidenced by the appearance of its first stealth aircraft prototype in January 2011. 

However, as with the Navy, it is likely that the Air Force’s primary focus for the coming decade will remain on building the capabilities required to pose a credible military threat to Taiwan and U.S. forces in East Asia, deter Taiwan independence, or influence Taiwan to settle the dispute on Beijing’s terms.

Space Warfare. 


PLA strategists regard the ability to utilize space and deny adversaries access to space as central to enabling modern, informatized warfare. Although PLA doctrine does not appear to address space operations as a unique operational ―campaign,‖ space operations form an integral component of other PLA campaigns. 

The PLA is acquiring a range of technologies to improve China’s space and counterspace capabilities. A PLA analysis of U.S. and Coalition military operations reinforced the importance of operations in space to enable informatized warfare, claiming that ―space is the commanding point for the information battlefield.

PLA writings emphasize the necessity of ―destroying, damaging, and interfering with the enemy’s reconnaissance... and communications satellites, suggesting that such systems, as well as navigation and early warning satellites, could be among initial targets of attack to ―blind and deafen the enemy.

"Destroying or capturing satellites and other sensors… will deprive an opponent of initiative on the battlefield and [make it difficult] for them to bring their precision guided weapons into full play."
 

Integrated Network Electronic Warfare.

PRC military writings highlight the seizure of electromagnetic dominance in the early phases of a campaign as among the foremost tasks to ensure battlefield success. PLA theorists have coined the term ―integrated network electronic warfare (wangdian yitizhan—网电一体战) to describe the use of electronic warfare, computer network operations, and kinetic strikes to disrupt battlefield information systems that support an adversary’s warfighting and power projection capabilities. PLA writings identify ―integrated network electronic warfare as one of the basic forms of ―integrated joint operations, suggesting the centrality of seizing and dominating the electromagnetic spectrum in PLA campaign theory.


Deception


PRC military writings point to a working definition of strategic deception as luring the other side into developing misperceptions… and establishing for oneself a strategically advantageous position by producing various kinds of false phenomena in an organized and planned manner with the smallest cost in manpower and materials.


In addition to information operations and conventional camouflage, concealment, and denial, the PLA draws from China’s historical experience and the traditional role that stratagem and deception have played in Chinese statecraft.

There is an inherent tension in Chinese strategic culture today, pitting a deep-seated tendency to conceal military capabilities and force development against a partial acceptance that excessive secrecy inflames regional and global anxiety about China’s rising power. For over a decade PRC leaders have identified the so called China threat theory as a serious hazard to the country’s international standing and reputation, threatening the development of a persistent alignment of regional and global powers in opposition to China.


There is perhaps another source of tension between the emerging reality of Chinese military power and China’s tradition of secrecy, and that is the fact that many of China’s new military capabilities are difficult or impossible to hide. Examples of such capabilities include advanced aircraft, long range missiles, and modern naval assets. Furthermore, missiles, space-based, and counterspace systems must be tested and exercised before being operationally deployed with confidence. The PLA’s growing inventory of these new assets and the ranges at which they operate effectively prevents their concealment.

China foresees comparative advantages stemming from its development of asymmetric capabilities, including in electronic warfare; from preparing to wage modern war in a battlespace where information dominance is a key to victory; and from undertaking military modernization with the benefit of new technologies not available to great powers that modernized earlier in history.

China’s copy cat of American rhetoric about force doctrine, the Revolution in Military Affairs, and information warfare is striking and presents one conclusion:

China is the only military in the world sexplicitly prepping, training and equipping to fight Great Satan.


Pic "In line with the principles of being just, reasonable, comprehensive and balanced, China stands for effective disarmament and arms control, and endeavors to maintain global strategic stability."

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

After Khadaffy Quickie

Götterdämmerung!

As the world's longest ruling despotry crashes in a mini orgy of undisciplined rowdiness, firefights with searches for the Amazonian Guard and their "Lil Poppa" - it's time to get real.

 Real fast.

And that means (all together luv!) 

Boots on the ground.

Libya's especial weapon caches need to be captured, controlled or sweetly xformed into black blazing craters. Libya's wmd stuff like blood, blister and assorted nasty agents need to be taken out of the country. Libya's rocketry stuff needs to get the Peenemünde penchant. 

Libya's prison complex needs to be taken over and all the inmates inside thoroughly vetted.

And perhaps the best part - the new Libya will prob need some kinda quick cash influx. That's cool - yet the strings attached should be unyielding in any and every detail - none of that 7th century, girl hating intolerant S'Ria chiz. 

The West should make this absolutely clear - so what if it's in their make it up as they go constitution? (That's why the West invented the eraser and white out - nicht wahr?) 

If Libya wants the Woman Worshipping West's bling bling -  such sexy bling bling bears a certain, tolerant egalitarian, human rights, gendercide proofing non military strongman cost.  

Since France and the British portions of NATO were so hot to crank up violence to a regime collapsible level - France and the Brits and NATO can provide the muscle.

Also a wonderfully crunk op to zoom out of Libya and Syria and reconsider some strategical designs...

Pic - "Never was a girl with a wicked mind - yet everything's better when the sun goes down"

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

ROC Def

Tiny tiny Taiwan - a fun free choice little sister democrazy that hasn't ever bothered anydobby

China’s lustful desires for Taiwan are a lot like THAT LOOK given by older cats who realize their dreamy dreams of snagging a precious little wikibit hottie - right off the vine - may forever remain unrequited.

President Hu's '5 No's' explain everything. Perfectly clear what will unleash this armada (DoD pdf China Military Power):


Formal declaration of independence or a military alliance by Taiwan with a foreign power 
Foreign intervention in Taiwan's internal affairs.
Delays in resumption of cross-Strait dialogue, and an unwillingness to negotiate on the basis of 'one China'. 
Taiwan's acquisition of new clear or WMD weaponry
Internal unrest or turmoil on Taiwan

Taiwan's Vice Defense Minister gives up hot deets bout Mommie China's Military development and Taiwan's Republic of China's counters

The PLA’s Military Threats against the ROC


(I) Major Military Build-ups


1. The Second Artillery: The PLA has been zealously developing and deploying new types of short- and medium-range missiles as well as intercontinental and cruise missiles. It also continues to improve the accuracy of its missiles and their ability to penetrate the missile defense system. The PLA has stationed over 1,400 tactical ballistic and cruise missiles along mainland China’s southeastern coastlines, creating the ability to launch multiple salvos of precision strikes against Taiwan. Meanwhile, as an attempt to fortify its A2/AD capabilities, the PLA continues to develop the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile and increase the number of new types of medium-range ballistic missiles, demonstrating its notable missile strike capabilities.


2. Air Capabilities: Mainland China also continues to introduce high-performance fighters and bombers, including the J-10, Su-27, Su-30, JH-7, and H-6. It has also developed the J-20 stealth fighter. Moreover, it has been deploying early-warning aircraft and air refueling tankers to strengthen its grasp of situations in the battlefield, enhance its air command-and-control, and extend its striking distance. Through the combination of its S-300PMU-2 surface-to-air missiles and HQ-9 air-defense missiles, which are deployed along the southeastern coastlines and can cover the entire Strait, the practice of an “offensive air defense” strategy, and the missile striking power of the Second Artillery, the PLA has the capability to seize partial air superiority over the Strait.


3. Naval Capabilities: China has manufactured and deployed new types of guided missile destroyers, guided missile frigates, stealth fast attack boats, and nuclear-powered and diesel-electric submarines. Along with its surveillance and reconnaissance systems such as reconnaissance satellites, maritime patrol aircraft, and over-the-horizon radar (OTHR), mainland China is now equipped with strong surface and underwater capabilities to partially blockade the ROC’s sea lines of communication (SLOCs), thus helping to facilitate its anti-access operations. Moreover, mainland China is currently building carrier battle groups, seeking to reinforce its blue water operation capabilities, escort operations, and the control over SLOCs.


4. Ground and Amphibious Capabilities: China is moving toward mechanization and informationalization by researching and developing new types of main battle tanks, amphibious tanks, and long-range multiple rocket launchers and outfitting them to troops in the Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Jinan Military Regions. The aforementioned armaments, in combination with new types of large amphibious vessels, help to improve the PLA’s mobility, fast assault abilities, and landing operations effectiveness. Moreover, mainland China is capable of projecting forces to and occupying islets and reefs in the disputed East and South China Seas when necessary.


5. Aerospace Capabilities: Mainland China, thus far, has over 60 satellites in orbit for military navigation and positioning, scientific research, meteorological purposes, and reconnaissance and communications. Among these are more than 20 military reconnaissance satellites, allowing mainland China to grasp the military dynamics of the ROC and other regional countries in all weathers. Additionally, the deployment of the positioning and communications satellite “Beidou (Compass)” has granted China initial positioning and global communications capabilities in the Western Pacific and has advanced the accuracy of its precision-guided weapons.


6. Cyber and Electronic Capabilities: Mainland China has established a “Cyber Force” and several information warfare centers exclusively in charge of developing computer viruses and cyber techniques and constructing the ability to attack adversaries’ computer systems and networks. By integrating military and civil resources and incorporating civil networks and IT talents, mainland China is highly capable of launching cyber attacks. In terms of electronic warfare, the PLA is equipped with new types of communications jammers and has deployed long-range jammers, various types of anti-radiation unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and anti-radiation missiles. Hence, it has obtained the capabilities of electronic soft-kill disruption and hard-kill destruction.


(II) Major Threats to the ROC’s National Defense and Security


1. Around-the-Clock Surveillance and Reconnaissance: In combination with surveillance and reconnaissance facilities such as reconnaissance satellites, OTHR, early-warning aircraft, maritime patrol aircraft, UAVs, and electronic support measures, the PLA is able to monitor Taiwan around-the-clock and will be capable of effectively grasping the force deployment and military dynamics of the ROC Armed Forces.


2. Disrupting SLOCs or Blockading Taiwan: The operational range of the PLA’s new types of vessels and aircraft has been significantly expanded, and the PLA Navy continues to strengthen its ability in trans-regional long-range cruise training. Along with its shore-based long-range anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles, it is estimated that the PLA is now able to partially blockade air and sea domain around Taiwan, disrupt its SLOCs, and deny foreign forces accessing to the waters west of the First Island Chain. Upon the deployment of its carrier battle groups, the PLA will be even more capable of sealing off Taiwan.


3. Precision Strike: By upgrading the accuracy and effectiveness of its ballistic and cruise missiles and continuing the deployment of precision-guided weapons, anti-radiation weapons, long-range air-defense missiles, and anti-ship missiles, the PLA has significantly improved its joint strike firepower. In addition, it is capable of launching precision strikes against underway ships and aircraft as well as important political-military-economic facilities such as C4ISR systems, air force bases, government agencies, and key infrastructures.


4. Occupying ROC’s Outlying Islands: Mainland China continues to ameliorate its operational training and exercises for airborne assault and amphibious landing specifically for blockading the ROC’s outlying islands. It has also been aggressively acquiring new types of large landing ships and hovercraft in an attempt to upgrade its lift capacities and the speed of force projection. In tandem with the Second Artillery and air-sea war-fighting capabilities, mainland China has the potential to occupy the ROC’s outlying islands and even to invade Taiwan island.




The Impacts on the Strategic Situation in the Asia-Pacific Region


(I) Mainland China’s Military Expansion Draws Concerns from Its Neighboring Countries: Mainland China’s rapid military expansion in the past decade has exceeded the need for self-defense. Its defense spending lacks transparency, its strategic intention is unclear, and its military activities in the First Island Chain, the West Pacific, the South China Sea, and even the India Ocean have become more active in recent years. In 2010, mainland China even claimed the South China Sea as its “core interest” in a statement to U.S. officials. All of these actions have concerned its neighbors.


(II) Beijing Tries to Water Down the Notion of a “China Threat” through Befriending Neighbors and Military Exchanges: As an effort to pacify neighboring countries, mainland China has taken over leadership of the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” encouraged the “Six-Party Talks,” operated “ASEAN plus One,” and performed UN peacekeeping operations and escort missions in waters around Somalia. By undertaking these measures of “befriending neighbors” and “military exchanges,” mainland China attempts to demonstrate its status as a major power and ease neighboring countries’ concerns over the regional security threats caused by its military expansion.


(III) Neighboring Countries’ Reactions: In response to the potential challenges of mainland China’s military development and the tensions on the Korea Peninsula, Asia-Pacific countries such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, and Australia have recently strengthened their military cooperation with the U.S. or with each other. The U.S. has adjusted its force deployment in the Asia-Pacific, increased the number of nuclear-powered attack and guided missile submarines in the region, expanded the military base in Guam, and dispatched F-22 stealth fighters and various types of strategic bombers.


In conclusion, the threats of mainland China’s military expansion along with the issue of national defense and security have become the focus of attention among Asia-Pacific countries. In consideration of international politics, economic interests, and the maintenance of regional stability and peace, Asia-Pacific countries sustain a close economic and diplomatic relations and a certain extent of military exchanges with mainland China. However, as much as a source of opportunities, a rising China is in the meantime regarded by its neighbors as a potential threat.




The ROC’s Responses


Considering the huge gap between the ROC and mainland China in terms of overall national power and military strength, the ROC must exert its “smart power” and properly manage U.S.-China-ROC relations. It should also take advantage of cross-Strait exchanges to advocate ideas of democracy and encourage mainland China’s democratic transformation. In the aspect of national defense, the ROC must, based on the concepts of preventive defense and asymmetric warfare, actively fortify its “Hard ROC” Armed Forces to credibly safeguard the homeland, deter wars, and be a solid buttress in pursuit of cross-Strait peace, regional stability, and national prosperity. The efforts are as follows:


(I) At the National Strategy and Defense Level:


• On Cross-Strait Relations: The ROC should maintain cross-Strait political mutual trust and stability and consolidate its defense to discourage Beijing’s intention to use force against the ROC. In an active manner, the ROC should take advantage of cross-Strait exchanges to encourage mainland China to move toward political reform and democratic transformation.


• On International Relations: The ROC needs to maintain a good relationship with the U.S., enhance military exchanges with the U.S., and urge the U.S. to sell it advanced defensive weapons. In response to a rising China and for common security and strategic benefits between the U.S. and the ROC, it should smartly and properly resort to diplomatic measures to build exchange and cooperation relations in various fields with Asia-Pacific countries.


• On Defense Strategies: The ROC needs to build “Hard ROC” defense forces through the promotion of a volunteer culture for the Armed Forces, and defense transformation. By doing so, the ROC can fulfill its three major defense tasks, which are: defending the ROC, deterring enemy threats, and defeating enemy attacks. The ROC should also perfect its all-out national defense mechanism, reinforce its strategic sustainability, and improve the mobilization of reserves and materials.


(II) At the Military Strategy Level:


The ROC will never provoke or launch attacks. However, it must possess the ability to defend itself and counterattack the enemy after sustaining the first strike. To implement the military strategy of “resolute defense and credible deterrence,” the ROC Armed Forces must carry out the following tasks in an effective manner:


1. Resolute Defense: The ROC Armed Forces have to be able to sustain the enemy’s first strike, avert a decapitation strike, mount a counterattack, and sustain its warfighting capabilities in order to achieve the goal of “strategic sustainability and tactical decisiveness.”


2. Credible Deterrence: The ROC Armed Forces should effectively improve the interoperability of weapon systems across all armed services, increase the effectiveness of joint operations, and strengthen defensive countermeasures capabilities to make the enemy aware of the costs and risks of invasion and then rationally give up on any hostile intention of aggression.


3. Anti-Blockade: The ROC Armed Forces need to ensure the security of its air and sea domain in peacetime. During wartime, the Armed Forces need to coordinate joint warfighting capabilities and counter the enemy’s blockade operations, open up aerial and maritime safety lanes, and maintain communications to the outside world to ensure the continuity of the government and the social system.


4. Joint Interdiction: After the enemy launches an attack, the ROC Armed Forces need to take advantage of favorable situations to exert defensive countermeasures and attack military objectives important to the enemy as well as amphibious forces staging and embarking at ports. Subsequently, the Armed Forces need to focus on joint interdiction operations and joint anchorage attack in order to stop and annihilate the enemy at the phase of crossing the Strait.


5. Ground Defense: If the enemy forces its way ashore, the ROC Armed Forces must build up an in-depth defense system with its all-out defense capabilities and implement a multi-layered interdiction to annihilate the enemy’s landing and airborne troops before it is able to gain a foothold.


(III) Fighting against the Enemy’s Overwhelming Strength with Smart Power-The ROC’s Asymmetric Strategy:


The ROC’s asymmetric strategy is an innovative way of thinking. It aims to effectively exert other operational capabilities in addition to conventional warfighting capabilities, incorporate regular and irregular operational methods for flexible application, and develop low-cost, high-performance, and easy-to-establish asymmetric / innovative forces. The intention is to maximize the ROC’s strength, attack the enemy’s vulnerability, and hold down the enemy’s operational capabilities and actions, so as to obtain greater freedom of action and achieve the goal of fighting against the enemy’s overwhelming strength with smart power.




Conclusion


With the insistence on the value of democracy, the ROC is now proceeding toward volunteer forces and defense transformation in an attempt to build modernized “Hard ROC” defense forces and demonstrate its determination to safeguard national security and maintaining the stability in the Strait. In terms of international politics, economics, and strategic consideration, the ROC is an indispensable member of the Asia-Pacific region. It is hoped that the United States and the international community will continue to support the ROC and expand exchanges and cooperation so as to create a multi-win and mutually beneficial situation. Eventually, it is expected that United States will sell advanced defensive weapons to the ROC for self-defense and contribution to the safety and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. 

Pic - "Taiwan in 3 Days"

Monday, August 22, 2011

Revo Guards Rise

Sepāh-e Pāsdārān-e Enqelāb-e "Slāmi, bay bee!!

Perhaps the most charming ce je ne sais quoi about illegit despotries subtle, gross, horrid or benign is their magical ability to field praetorians. Throughout the manchile experience, the guardian guard of imperial imperators could perhaps best be scoped out as an uparmored posse of body guards sweetly functioning as political soldiers at the regime's disposal.

Intended to be especial purpose troops for such duties as putting down counterrevolutions and strikes, conduct purges, and quell riots, praetorian guards are a regime's actualizing enablers.

And in totally gay free, hiker hater Persia, the Pasdaranlicious Revolutionary Guard maintains the regime of Preacher Command and since the yo 8 off cycle majilles election - Preacher Command - the ayatollahs - became eclipsed by their very own praetorian guard. Expertly Xforming Iran into a military ran regime 

The new Iranian Oil Minister- a Revo Guard cat with impeccable Revolutionary bona fides fires up some critical thinking about how the Revo Guard is like totally insinuated throughout every endeavor in Persia. GsGf's P. Gulf cat splains:  


Courtney, the notion that Iran is slowly edging towards military rule must be critically examined against the country's modern political history. Iran's underlying political culture and heritage does not lend itself to overt manipulation by military organizations.

Indeed, unlike its Arab, Turkish and Pakistani neighbors Iran does not have a history of military rule or even a strong military influence in politics. Given this underlying political-cultural dynamic it is difficult to imagine how any military force can mobilize critical elements in society in favor of non-civilian rule, regardless of attenuating circumstances.

Nevertheless, the Pasdaran's organizational profile is set to grow even more in the years ahead. The reasons behind this ascent have less to do with the political situation in Tehran than with Iran's geopolitical profile and the increasing possibility of a military confrontation with the
Great Satan.

The Pasdaran control all of Iran's strategic military assets, including the country's increasingly sophisticated long-range missiles program, and are likely to be at the sharp end of any military confrontation with the Great Satan in the Persian Gulf.

Hail New Clear Praetorians!

And new clear Praetorians may soon be at the sharp end of that sharp stick's sharp end  with total  command and control of an atomic arsenal.

Pic - "The most dangerous General of them all..."

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Smart Power

"And I know I'm coming off just a little bit conceited and I keep on repeating how the boys wanna ..."

Hoochiefication in America "They go from being role models, doing things like wearing promise rings, doing charity work, and what's the next step? They take their clothes off or head to rehab. The road to female identity is rocky right now, and these stars are traveling it in a writ-large, public way that reflects, in a smaller way, the dilemmas real girls face."  


Make it global!

Deploy it with all that 'Smart Power" Chiz too!

"America's cause in the world has always been hugely enhanced by the view that whatever our national failings, we stand for freedom and believe ourselves safest when other people also live in freedom." 

Put them boys on rock rock

Pic - "Well, the maddening thing about the 'staff' and I use that term loosely, at GsGf , is they honestly don't seem to give a damn"

Saturday, August 20, 2011

WoW Time

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! And do us on Facebook and Twitter..

Friday, August 19, 2011

Low Intensity Deux!

Ouija!

Talk about psychic - the horrific terror attacks against Little Satan emanating from Aegypt's Sinai prove way more than the myth of Writ of State - it also makes the case that Low Intensity conflict can get way more bigger and xform into High Intensity conflict.

  An asymmetrical combined arms attack launched by the creepy sounding al-Naser Salah ad-Din Brigades (the self proclaimed Military Wing of the Popular Resistance Committee ) used commando type machine gunners as well as light arty - mortars in fact.

The world's very first freely elected suicide regime - ruling the Strip sans elections for eons now - claimed zero responsibility (Oh Writ of State! Thy Sovereignty dodge ist unbehagen!).

HAMAS may have a point - as witnessed by the nigh instant Little Satan F16 air raid on PRC's Command and Control complex
"Officials in Gaza said the militants killed in the Little Satan airstrike belonged to the Popular Resistance Committees, a group that has worked in the past with Hamas. The leader of the Popular Resistance Committees’ military wing was among those killed in the strike, which hit a house in Rafah, in southern Gaza. Some of the group’s members are known to have gone over to the Army of "Slam, a shadowy extremist group operating in Gaza."
Whoa!

Interrogations of terrorist suspects arrested by Egypt have revealed that the Palestinian Army of "Slam organization, which identifies with global j!had, has been working to establish an al-Qaida branch in Sinai.

As part of these efforts, a training base was set up in el-Arish last February. Around 2,000 operatives went there to receive weapons training.

The purpose of the training was to establish a global j!had force in Sinai that would act to drive out Egyptian and multi-national forces that are deployed in Sinai.

In recent months, terrorists have attacked government sites in northern Sinai (including five attacks on the pipeline that Egypt uses to provide Little Satan and that Hashemite Jordan place with gas).

The ironic irony available is the mind blowing fact that Aegypt's V checking military actually took a break from tormenting girls and did Sinai in a military op aimed at non state actor outers. Right before the ballon went up. Interesting that unverified gossip deets the terrorists on site in E'Lat were gussied up in Aegyptian army battle dress.

Pic - "Triangular Threat"

Thursday, August 18, 2011

AirSea Battle

It's complicated!

Collectivist China's nat'l pride feel good sortee sexercise with Shi Lang aside, Great Satan's Quad Def Review prophesied that People’s Liberation Army Navy would focus without modesty or restraint on her twin dreams of area denial, securing needed resources and Taiwan:
First, China seeks to deny access by Great Satan and other naval powers to the Yellow, East China and South China Seas, dominating the natural resources and disputed island chains such as the Spratly and Senkaku Island chains giving PLAN the capacity to rehook upify Taiwan with the mainland by force and without US interference, if necessary. China’s assertiveness in confronting and harassing Asian and US civilian and naval ships in the region over the past decade shows a sustained level of determination on this front.  

2nd China seeks international prestige and a power projection capacity in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea lanes by deploying multiple aircraft carriers and fifth-generation stealth fighter-bombers. The booming Chinese economy has become ever more dependent on imported minerals and oil from Africa and the Middle East, and the ability to protect its Indian Ocean and Strait of Malacca sea lanes is a responsibility that China is no longer willing to delegate to other powers.
 Considering the not so peaceful looking rise of a rowdy China, sev quizes need to be answered what does it mean for Great Satan and her BFF's like Australia, Nippon, SoKo and Taiwan  to lose military primacy in PACRIM? Does Great Satan's credibility depend on the ability to dominate China’s maritime periphery? And what are the funintended consequences of a military no-go zone in the Western Pacific?

Hot gossip about sexing up  "AirSea Battle" pdf (not be confused with AirLand Battle) to be China centric with the Pentagon's China Integration team reminds that AirSea Battle campaign has two stages.

Stage 1, commencing with the outbreak of hostilities, comprises four distinct lines of operation:
  • Withstanding the initial attack and limiting damage to Great Satan and allied forces
    and bases;
  • Executing a blinding campaign against PLA battle networks;
  • Executing a suppression campaign against PLA long-range ISR and strike
    systems;
  • Seizing and sustaining the initiative in the air, sea, space and cyber domains
The follow-on second stage would comprise various ops designed to support Great Satan's strategy by creating options to resolve a prolonged conventional conflict on favorable terms. Like:
  • Executing a protracted campaign that includes sustaining and exploiting the initiative in various domains;
  • Conducting “distant blockade” operations;
  • Sustaining operational logistics; and
  • Ramping up industrial production (especially precision-guided munitions).
Is AirSea Battle to be the limit of the hyperpuissant 1992 Def Planning Guide?

Maybe not

An arms race is already underway in Asia. AirSea Battle will accelerate this process, with serious implications for regional stability and crisis management. First, by creating the need for a continued visible presence and more intrusive forms of surveillance in the Western Pacific, AirSea Battle will greatly increase the range of circumstances for maritime brinkmanship and dangerous naval incidents.


Second, AirSea Battle’s emphasis on pre-empting China by striking early against the PLA will continue to compress the time available to decision-makers in a crisis. As military plans become increasingly dependent on speed and escalation, and diplomacy fails to keep up, a dangerous ‘use it or lose it’ mentality is likely to take hold in the minds of military commanders. This risks building an automatic escalator to war into each crisis before diplomatic efforts at defusing the situation can get underway.


And finally, AirSea Battle calls for deep strikes on the Chinese mainland to blind and suppress PLA surveillance systems and degrade its long-range strike capabilities. Such an attack, even if it relied solely on conventional systems, could easily be misconstrued in Beijing as an attempt at pre-emptively destroying China’s retaliatory nuclear options. Under intense pressure, it would be hard to limit a dramatic escalation of such a conflict – including, in the worst case, up to and beyond the nuclear threshold.


Taken together, the costs and risks associated with AirSea Battle spell trouble for US primacy in Asia, and for the sea control and power projection capabilities on which it relies. Yet while Washington’s comfortable hegemonic habits will be hard to kick – especially after so many peaceful, prosperous decades – it’s not all doom and gloom. 

There are other, more cost effective ways of doing that, including by playing China at its own game. That would involve developing a maritime denial strategy, focused mainly on the use of submarines, designed to inhibit China’s use of the sea for its own power projection. Indeed, the same capabilities that imperil US power projection in the Western Pacific would have an equally profound effect on China’s own fledgling efforts.

 Pic -  "We have to decide whether we’re going to compete or not. If we’re not, then we have to be willing to accept the shift in the military balance."

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Indo Pac

 Indo - Pac Is bloody huge y'all!


Stretching all the way Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific, Indo Pac totes more than half the entire world's pop - including collectivist China and India  the world's hugest democrazy, two of the largest economies (China and Nippon); and at least three new clear powers along with 4 more who could prob go new clear over a long weekend - SoKo, Taiwan, Nippon and Australia.

GsGf's  Asian Security chief (Oh! He got game bay bee!) shares an op for Great Satan's  benevolent hyperpuissance

Great Satan's next global era is dawning, Courtney. As we scale down military operations in both Afghanistan and Iraq, our future prosperity, influence, and security will be determined by what happens in the rising Indo-Pacific region. If we play a leading role in the great area stretching from India to Japan, the coming decades will see the strengthening not only of American power, but also that of our liberal, democratic allies. 

Conversely, surrendering the high ground in Asia to China will likely result in the ebbing of the postwar liberal international system and the establishment of a region, and world, of greater insecurity and instability. Two questions face a Washington focused on cutting budgets and stressed after a decade of combat in the Middle East. First, do we have the will to succeed in the Indo-Pacific? And second, do we have the means to continue to lead?

While Das Unaussprechlichen COIN Külten zooms in on finite finites about counter insurgency
Indo Pac might actually require zooming out and applying COIN ideas on a nigh global scale:


The answers may lie in our recent combat experiences. A cornerstone of America's counterinsurgency approach in Iraq and Afghanistan has been the strategy of "clear, hold, and build"--that is, clear out insurgents, hold the area, and then build up local political and economic institutions to maintain stability. While many observers worry that the Defense Department under former secretary Robert Gates became too monolithically focused on counterinsurgency, the reigning counterinsurgency doctrine may actually provide a strategy for America's policy in the Indo-Pacific region over the next decades--but only if it is turned upside down, into a "Build, Hold, and Clear" strategy.
 
Policymakers need to begin planning and implementing a strategy for the next American era today, before we lose more ground economically or before insecurity leads to instability and the possibility of military conflict. Like traditional counterinsurgency, this takes time, commitment, and resources. The way forward is to Build, Hold, and Clear.


 Pic - "Indo Pac"