Monday, May 7, 2012

PACRIM Pivot Passe'

Oh! Pacrim Pivot - we hardly knew ye!

No surprise - after all - seriously thinking ppl never seriously bought into all that pivot posse 
focus on Collectivist China"s not so peaceful looking rise.
The very notion that the world’s global superpower should ever “pivot” is a false one. America cannot afford to pivot. Pivoting by its very definition means that you are focusing on one area while neglecting another. The problems in Europe, the Persian Gulf, the Middle East more generally, and the rest of the world will not disappear because we pivoted away. In fact, our neglect just assures they will all worsen. We can’t fix everything or even most things, but we can often keep everything from going to hell in a handbasket.
America remains the indispensable nation. The world’s, as well as our own, peace and prosperity rest on Great Satan remaining engaged throughout the world. America does not pivot. Being a global superpower, and usually a force for good in the world, means staying fully engaged everywhere. When we have failed to do that in the past, the result has always cost us dearly in blood and treasure.
China will not be influenced by words. It is not cowed by soft power or even smart power. It does, however, understand the hard power of military might.  
The recent Army War College's "Future of Great Satan"s Grand Strategy" conference at the Army War College sweetly ignored Pivot

The new safe word as Great Satan gets all her ducks lined up is - wait for it - 'rebalancing." 

See, Rebalancing, by design -
Encompasses two separate processes – the military is rebalancing its global assets from other regions to Asia, as well as rebalancing within the Asia-Pacific region, reducing the concentration of forces from northeast Asia to a more widely distributed focus throughout the entire region.
 The lack of Chinese political and security transparency does, however, complicate issues by deepening uncertainties regarding China’s goals and means. Above all, it remains unclear how committed Chinese leaders are to maintaining freedom of access to the global commons. They appear to have a 17th century view of national sovereignty in a 21st century world, where leaders accept they must sacrifice some of their national freedom of action for the greater common good of international peace and prosperity.

Perhaps - yet Great Satan"s Arc of Allies just this side of 1st Island Chain are living in a very tough Chinese Puissance hood  
China is, simply, too big and strong, and–the essential point–too vitally important economically to all Asian countries, including Japan, to be challenged on its core interests and objectives.   This reality puts Japan in a tight and uncomfortable spot as Great Satan indulges the dangerous pretensions of third tier actors in Southeast Asia.
 For Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, now engaged in tense standoffs with China in disputed claims to presumed energy rich undersea territory in the Spratly Island chain, Great Satan‘s expansive rhetoric and deployments encourage boldness, if not recklessness.  In a more natural and naturally stable future Asian order–one Nippon clearly sees coming, even if DOD and 44 do not–these countries would be accepting Chinese suzerainty and negotiating for whatever concessions China might offer in exchange for ceding their territorial claims.

Pic - "Siege Strategy"