The delightful tingly sensation of being totally correct - so far - certainly opens up a bit of psychic future looking at Aegypt.
Pyramidland's President Pharoh For Life must go. The sooner the better - in fact - the longer he clings to power the more likely the worst of a future Persian style theocrazy scenario becomes.
"...Arab world is being left behind by other regions, whether the benchmark be literacy, educational achievement, private enterprise, healthcare or women's rights. These trends, if allowed to continue unchecked, promise only more days of rage, more instability and more grief.
Just lucky - Great Satan has game in giving an assist to allied despotries swinging all the way over to fun, functional democrazy status. Philippines, SoKo - even Land of the Pure - all had suffered with Leaders for Life of nation/states vital to Great Satan's hot! interests in the diplopolititary realm.
If Great Satan creates yet another inside out dictatorship to democrazy trip - like in Pyramidland right now - her street wise tricks and cred will be off the hook as "... much-needed credibility in the region. Successful transitions in Egypt and Tunisia could herald a reimagined relationship..." betwixt Great Satan and the entire Arab League- just as 44 promised in the "New Beginning" speech at Cairo
"...No one should underestimate the crucial role of international actors. Rarely do successful democratic transitions occur without constructive engagement from Western governments and organizations.
44 should ideally be way out in front on this - failing to recover from the Realist in the head leaks or Bystander In Chief mode could leave 3 probable scenarios for a new Egypt:
A Burmese/Myanmarish Military gov:
"...Whether the military assumes power in Cairo, as has been the case in Rangoon for decades, is unclear. Sami Annan, the army's chief of staff, and Defense Minister Mohammed Hussein Tantawi traveled to Washington at the beginning of the week. The military leadership is undoubtedly coordinating its next steps with the Pentagon, despite the fact that Washington threatened to freeze military aid to Cairo on Friday evening.
"...Modern-day Egypt has a tradition of having presidents with military backgrounds. Gamel Abdal Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak, Egypt's three leaders since 1954, all had army backgrounds. And Defense Minister Tantawi, 75, is significantly more popular than intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, also frequently mentioned as a possible successor to Mubarak.
Neo Ottoman ala Turkey:
"...The Turkish model espoused by the Justice and Development Party (AKP ) of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has inspired many Arab democrats. It is the only successful attempt to date to domesticate political Islam, an attempt that has succeeded both economically and in terms of foreign policy. Of course, to implement this model in Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood would have to follow the example of Turkey's Islamists, that is, to significantly modernize its image of humanity and more clearly distance itself from terror than it has done to date.
Which brings up the uncool idea of a Sunni Theocrazy not unlike Iran's Ayatollah regime.
"...The m"Hammedist Bro Hood would be calamitous for U.S. security. What's more, their current defenders don't really argue that point, as much as they seem to dismiss it as not important or something we can live with. The MB supports Hamas and other terrorist groups, makes friendly noises to Iranian dictators and torturers, would be uncertain landlords of the critical Suez Canal, and opposes the Egyptian-Israeli agreement of 1979, widely regarded as the foundation of peace in the Mideast. Above all, the MB would endanger counterterrorism efforts in the region and worldwide. That is a very big deal.
Ikhwan may be the best organized (and most ruthless?) political opfor group in Pyramidland yet it is worth remembering that in the mommie land of all of Araby with a population of 80 million, BroHood membership is guestimated to be in the low hundreds of thousands - last year the movement contested less than a third of all parliamentary seats.
Assuming the worst case scenario would indeed be scary.
Especially for Egypt.
If a magical Sunnilicious caliphate seized control, opened season on killing Xians, tormented women and girls (even more than now) severed all ties with Great and Little Satan, allowed Egyptian embassies worldwide to become associates or enablers of a myriad of terroristic groups, proclaimed the Cold Peace was over, began a chaotic transit experiment with Suez canal, armed and infiltrated weaponry and volte d'guerres into the Strip to practice asymmetrical warfare - then look out!
Foreign aid would evaporate overnight, crushing UN sanctioned sanctions strangles the economy til it ceased to exist, spy wars would rage across Egypt, the Suez would taken into internat'l rec'vership, and any radical fundie gov would end up exactly where Pres For Life Hosni is today
Pic - "Searching for something missed before"
5 comments:
What would a theocracy in Egypt mean?
Around the same time, 1979 and 1981 respectively Islamists overtook Iran and Mubarak took over Egypt, in the thirty years since:
Egypt has had open tra...ding with the whole world, including diplomatic trade and military relations with Israel and the USA. Egypt had a peace treaty with Israel, receives billions of dollars in AMerican aid money every year and is a major non NATO ally. Far from receiving American military aid, Iran receives sanctions, embargoes, assett freezes and divestment from the USA. Israel and Iran have no diplomatic relations. Iran is surrounded by hostile nations and has limited regional trade options. Iran is on the receiving end of round after round of economic and trade sanctions. Egypt has a population of 80 000 000 and Iran slightly smaller at 76 000 000.
So what has this disparity in position meant in numbers? What has each nation done with the conditions it has? Compare:
Iran has a GDP per capita two to three times Egypts
Iran produces twice the steel per year, four times the energy and 140 times the motor vehicles Egypt does
The illiteracy rate in Egypt is twice as high as Iran
The tallest building in Iran is twice as high as the tallest building in Egypt, Iran has 28 buildings taller that Egypts tallest building.
Iran is developing its own oil and gas fields, has ship, missile, train, and aircraft design and manufacturing industries, Egypts three largest sources of income after oil and gas are foreign aid, tourism and cotton.
Iran has launched a sattelite, developed a nuclear program, built a series of dams, the only country in the middle east to manufacture wind turbines, the only country in the middle east to clone an animal and the list can go on forever.
60% of egyptians line up every day for subsidised government bread.
YE
Keep in mind Mubarak took power 11 years after death stopped Nasser's disastrous alliance with Syria, undertook numerous wars with Israel and public works projects that bankrupted the country. If you want to compare the two states, compare them to where they were in 1979-1981 and you'll see that Iran had a much bigger head start than Egypt. In fact if you want to get really into it, compare Iran in 1979 to where it is today and those "accomplishments" seem pretty thin - especially compared to other Asian countries like China, India, or Thailand.
Way to triangulate,YE.
Iran always had higher literacy than Egypt. And it was always a richer country,because it has oil and Egypt doesn't..duh!
Bu if you compare Iran's pre-Khomeini figures with what the regime is doing now, their economy is much worse off than it was under the Shah.And remember, that includes the millions of dollars the Khomeini regime stole in western property it expropriated and confiscated, Nazi-like, from exiting Armenians, Jews and Bah'ais by demanding their entire net worth be signed over as the price for visas and freedom.
In fact, Iran's oil production is decreasing by almost 7% per year because of corruption and antiquated equipment,gasoline is rationed because of the regime's inability to refine it, unemployment in the 18-30 age bracket is around 30%, the government admits to 12% inflation and much of the population subsists on government subsidies on staples like rice.
Prostitution and sex trafficking is also widespread among Iranian women, a sure sign of a failed economy.
Widespread sanctions didn't start until fairly recently,( and as we both know, they aren't being honored by some major players) so they can't be blamed. If not for the oil, Iran would be even more of a basket case than it is now.
Yup, the Islamists have done an absolutely splendid job!
Nice try,no sale.
Egypt spent the 1980s in peace, Iran stent the 1980s in a distrous war with a ruthless enemy, having Scud missiles fall on their cities and their youth fed to the cannons of Iraq. That was followed by crippling sanctions for the next 20 years. I tink that negates any "head start" dont you? Oh and Egypt is an oil and gas exporter as well
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