WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council- it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

 

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t) 

Council Winners  

• *First place with 2 votes!–Stately McDaniel Manor – Dallas: An Explosive Use Of Police Force
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes –Puma By Design – Backstabbing Sanders Supporters, Hillary Hires Debbie Wasserman Schultz as Campaign Chair.
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes –Bookworm Room – Dear Elites — no, Trump is not a fascist, but Hillary probably is
• Third place with 1 1/3 votes –GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD – Nuclear Ottomans?
• Fourth place with 1 vote –VA Right! – Understanding Presidential Polls For Dummies
• Fifth place with 2/3 vote –The Glittering Eye –Why, Oh Why?
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote –The Razor – Social Media: Why I Quit It
• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote – Joshuapundit–Dumb Debbie, The DNC And The Wrath Of The Bernistas

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 votes!–Sultan Knish –Exploiting Dead Cops to Promote Their Killers submitted by The Daley Gator
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes –Heather MacDonald/ City Journal –Trump Is Right about Crime submitted by Stately McDaniel Manor
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes – David Solway/PJ Media – How to Defeat Terrorism submitted by The Watcher
• Third place with 1 1/3 votes – Oren Cass/City Journal–Hillary’s Web Of Promises submitted by Bookworm Room
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –War On The Rocks – Germany Takes A Steely Look At The World submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Sean Trende/real Clear Politics – Where the Race Stands — Post-RNC Edition submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Kristen McQueary/Chicago Tribune – The truth of Donald Trump’s message: Black lives do matter submitted by The Watcher
• Seventh place with 1/3 vote –Richard Viguerie/Breitbart –Richard Viguerie: ‘Ted Cruz Committed Political Suicide on National TV’ submitted by The Watcher

See you next week!
 

The Limits Of Counter Terrorism

The steady stream of terrorist attacks over the last two months has seen the worst fears of many terrorism analysts realised, and called into question the fundamentals of how governments 'do' counter-terrorism.

The investigative ethos at the heart of counter-terrorism is fairly simple. Intelligence agencies ask two broad questions: is this person or group linked to people we already know are terrorists, and does their visible activity include behavioural precursors that have been reliably linked to terrorism in the past? 

These two questions lie at the heart of both the triaging of new leads and active investigations. In the case of the latter, agencies have created 'tripwires' to identify suspicious behaviour, such as suddenly buying large quantities of fertiliser or making unexpected plans to travel overseas.

In the current climate, where most agencies have more targets than investigative capacity, drawing a negative on both of these questions means an investigation is unlikely to go any further. Yet from what we know so far about the staggering number of individuals and groups behind attacks over the past eight weeks and beyond, for some the answers to these questions would have drawn a blank.

This is in large part due to a shift in terrorism strategy articulated by al Qaeda in their Inspire magazine in 2010 but brought to life by ISIS: open-source jihad. By encouraging attacks in which the attacker alone identifies the target, timing and method, it removed the requirement for pre-attack coordination with known terrorist entities.

In many ways, the conflict in Syria (while an obvious fillip for Islamist extremism across the world) delayed the advent of these types of attack. Why focus domestically when you could travel to Syria and Iraq instead? But as Western governments began to realise the scale of what was unfolding in the Middle East, it became more difficult to travel to those locations. As a consequence, radicalised individuals unable to leave their own country (such as Numan Haider in 2014 in Melbourne) shifted the target of their violence inwards. 

The subsequent media coverage and ISIS's praise for such attackers as martyrs for their cause have had real consequences. The dual factors of posthumous media infamy and the pardoning of previous sins has attracted individuals beyond those connected to known terrorists or with terrorist-like behaviours, individuals for whom intelligence agencies would have drawn a blank.


We saw this in Orlando in June. Omar Mateen was neither meaningfully connected to known extremists or behaving like one. Based on what we know so far, neither was Nice attacker Mohamed Bouhel. Instead, analysis has focused on issues of identity, sexuality, mental health and a violent past (and, in Bouhel's case, on further evidence of the connection between persistent criminal behaviour and a subsequent shift towards extremism).

These factors may be useful in understanding which individuals already under investigation might take extreme and violent actions, but they are not unique behavioural indicators of use to intelligence agencies. In a practical sense, any attempt to overlay them on top of the existing counter-terrorism investigative approach would be unworkable.

If our understanding of what a terrorist looks like is starting to shift, so too is the judgment intelligence agencies must make about whether links to known terrorists are an important factor in deciding whether an attack is likely to succeed, and how lethal it will be.

This second point has also historically been central to counter-terrorism strategy. Operational experience and statistics showed that an attack plot involving returned foreign fighters or instruction from terrorist groups overseas would be significantly deadlier than those that did not. While lone actors or self-starters were certainly a concern, they typically struggled to build explosive devices or get access to weaponry without contacting known terrorist or criminal entities.

Unfortunately, isolated actors and their cheerleaders overseas have realised this too. As Nice, Orlando and potentially Wurzburg all demonstrate, these unconnected individuals or networks are instead focusing on softer and typically more local targets. And utilising an attack methodology that challenges intelligence agency notions of what behaviour makes an individual 'look like a terrorist'. After all, possessing a knife or renting a truck is no obvious precursor to a terrorist attack.

Yet both Nice and Orlando have proved deadlier than many previous attacks directed by terrorist networks overseas or carried out by returning foreign fighters. Their tragic impact will not have gone unnoticed by the rest of the would-be terrorist community.

Terrorist attacks over the past two months have challenged many counter-terrorism pre-conceptions. The Australian Government is right to review existing processes to counter these 'new' threats, and in particular, look at the safety of public events. But attempts to draw a wider net, and include mental health records, links to criminality and addiction, are no guarantee of success. 

What is certain is that, in the short-term, there are unlikely to be any easy answers.

Space Force

"Thrusters on max!"

If a major war ever happens, low-Earth orbit could turn into a combat zone. To that end, the US Air Force Space Command has created the "Space Mission Force" to train soldiers to operate military satellites in response to threats. "Adversaries have developed and fielded capabilities to disrupt and deny the space systems we operate on behalf of the United States and our allies," writes US General John Hyten. 

"Consequently, [we] must organize, train and equip our space forces in a way that maintains our vigilance."

The Air Force already has Space Command squadrons to defend and attack military satellites, but wants to jack up the number of personnel. The goal is to provide airmen with up to six months of training, then have them work four to six months with experienced Space Command personnel."

 The paper was light on the specifics of the training, but clear on the goals. Hyten said that the US military must stay ahead of potential enemies by taking a hard look at its current practices and, if necessary, overhaul its space defense systems. Two squadrons have already started training, and the space wing that mans the Air Force missile warning satellites will move over to the Space Mission Force next, year, according to Space News. 
 
While much of the paper describes broad philosophies rather than operational specifics, the document said the Air Force hopes “to challenge current practices and re‐evaluate all existing processes to drive development” and find new solutions. 
 
In February, staffers from the 50th Space Wing, which manages various Air Force satellites, including the GPS constellation, began its first rotation of training. The 21st Space Wing, which runs the Air Force’s space situational awareness ground stations and radars, began its first rotation July 1. The 460th Space Wing, which manages the Air Force’s missile warning satellites, will begin its transition to the Space Mission Force next year.

While much of the paper describes broad philosophies rather than operational specifics, the document said the Air Force hopes “to challenge current practices and re‐evaluate all existing processes to drive development” and find new solutions.
In February, staffers from the 50th Space Wing, which manages various Air Force satellites, including the GPS constellation, began its first rotation of training. The 21st Space Wing, which runs the Air Force’s space situational awareness ground stations and radars, began its first rotation July 1. The 460th Space Wing, which manages the Air Force’s missile warning satellites, will begin its transition to the Space Mission Force next year.
- See more at: http://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-expands-space-warfare-training/#sthash.A7AXt8Ng.dpuf

While much of the paper describes broad philosophies rather than operational specifics, the document said the Air Force hopes “to challenge current practices and re‐evaluate all existing processes to drive development” and find new solutions.
In February, staffers from the 50th Space Wing, which manages various Air Force satellites, including the GPS constellation, began its first rotation of training. The 21st Space Wing, which runs the Air Force’s space situational awareness ground stations and radars, began its first rotation July 1. The 460th Space Wing, which manages the Air Force’s missile warning satellites, will begin its transition to the Space Mission Force next year.
- See more at: http://spacenews.com/u-s-air-force-expands-space-warfare-training/#sthash.A7AXt8Ng.dpuf

Forging The Sword

 

 American Army History teaches that the US Army can adapt, evolve and win on or off the battlefield

 The U.S. Army is often accused of being slow to change and unimaginative. Indeed, these are fairly predictable indictments that have dogged military organizations for centuries. Yet militaries do evolve over time to meet new challenges. The United States entered World War II with the Army’s horse-bound 26th Cavalry Regiment engaging Japanese tanks during the Philippines campaign. By the end of the war, the Army had evolved into a competent and robust mechanized force.

Military theorist J.F.C. Fuller referred to doctrine as “set of principles the Army uses to guide its actions in support of a national objectives.” The Department of Defense, in its quest to make any simple explanation unnecessarily cumbersome, defines doctrine as “fundamental principles by which the military forces or elements thereof guide their actions in support of national objectives.” To put it more simply than this, doctrine provides the lingua franca for military planners and thinkers to effectively discuss the military problems they face.

Since the conclusion of the Vietnam War, the U.S. Army has updated its main operational doctrine publication, Field Manual 3-0, seven times. These revisions included the introduction of Active Defense, Air-Land Battle, and Counterinsurgency doctrine, all of which were major doctrinal shifts designed to meet changing operational environments. So why, then, has the U.S. Army been able to readily make these changes successfully despite the many other examples of military organizations that have proven wholly unable to do so?

Forging the Sword: Doctrinal Change in the U.S. Army gives up some vital details.

 The military problems begin with the lack of political consensus and communication as to the overall worldwide military role that our country should be committed. By definition, this role should be defined in such a way, that the military can make short, intermediate and long term plans to fulfill the role

Check out the development of Air Land Battle 

The classic example showing the interplay of incubators and advocacy networks is the creation and adoption of the Air-Land Battle doctrine in the 1980s. Soviet armored units in Europe significantly outnumbered those of NATO. Worse, much of the Soviet advantage came from the huge numbers of follow-on forces that would flow into theater at the onset of conflict. Army planners realized that they would only succeed if they could disrupt the enemy’s rear areas,and consequently would require several key changes in the way the Army viewed the battlefield.

First, unit commanders would have to visualize operations much farther beyond the forward edge of battle than they had before. A division commander would conceivably be expected to influence events 70 kilometers beyond the forward line of troops. A corps commander saw that area of influence extending out to 150 kilometers. This was in turn accompanied by shorter time windows (at or below 96 hours for a corps headquarters) within which those commands would need to engage enemy targets. Second, Army formations would need to make greater use of precision fires and leverage the Air Force to “service” targets behind the lines. This meant U.S. Army ground units working closely with their counterparts in the Air Force, nominating enemy targets behind the forward line of troops to create tactical openings.

Though the Air-Land Battle doctrine was officially created and vetted within TRADOC, study groups at Fort Leavenworth and forward-stationed corps inside Europe began exploring how best to deal with repelling a massive Soviet ground attack in Europe. Once these ideas were proposed, they were then socialized for buy-in in the professional publications of mid-tier officers, such as Infantry and Armor magazine.

These same doctrinal developments both used and drove technological shifts. Military-wide studies identified the potential of precision munitions, creating the so-called “Assault Breaker” concept that so defined the second offset strategy. The demand for those munitions were spurred by other studies that articulated the Soviet threat that the Army would face in the 1980s.

Nuclear Turkey

Nuclear Ottomans?

American nuclear weapons are stored at the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey as part of Turkey’s NATO obligation. The base is operated by the Turkish Air Force. U.S. Air Force units are stationed there and have recently been carrying out airstrikes in Syria. American nuclear weapons are also stored at bases in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy. The presence of nuclear weapons at these bases is a carryover from the Cold War, but they also are symbolic of NATO’s defense of Europe, a concern revived by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine.

 As the coup broke out and was eventually suppressed, concerns popped up on social media about the surety of U.S. nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik Air Base, especially when electricity was cut off to the base. There were two concerns: First, that coup plotters or another malign actor would take advantage of the confusion to steal these nuclear weapons. Second, that forces loyal to the Turkish government, portions of which initially blamed the coup attempt on the United States, would overrun the portions of Incirlik Air Base where the nuclear weapons are stored and turn Turkey into an angry, nuclear-armed state overnight.

The weapons are said to be stored in underground vaults. The weapons are on racks that rise out of the ground. The controls probably require keys or codes. This is not a vault that one can walk into, like a bank vault. The weapons are heavy and require probably two or three men to handle, unless a dolly is available.

Anyone trying to extract these weapons will have to beat the security while under armed attack by base personnel. “Shoot to kill” will be part of the rules of engagement.

Let’s say that coup plotters or terrorists or whatever they are can put their hands on nuclear weapons. They might want to gain possession of those weapons (or a single weapon), detonate a weapon in place, or destroy the weapons. The last will require setting off a fairly large explosive charge, which they will have to carry with them. The scenarios people are most worried about are the first two.

To detonate a nuclear weapon, a mechanism called the Permissive Action Link (PAL) must be engaged. This is a security device that requires a code be entered, possibly in addition to other electronic actions, before the weapon can be detonated. The PAL may be rigged to detonate a small charge that will wreck the weapon after some number of unsuccessful tries. Steven M. Bellovin, a professor of computer science at Columbia University, has speculated on how PALs work, but it will take our notional renegades some time to use his ideas to arm and detonate a real weapon. While the plotters are under pursuit (and they would be) it is unlikely  that they will be able to defeat the PALS without special knowledge.

If, somehow, the plotters manage to get the weapon off the base, they will still have to deal with the PAL. Perhaps it could be defeated within weeks or months, but some very determined and well-equipped people would likely be going after them still.  As such, they will be unlikely to have the time and care necessary to bypass the PAL and detonate the weapon or disassemble it for its fissile material.

It is hard to imagine a scenario in which anyone is going to walk out with a nuke any time soon, as some of the more panicked accounts have suggested.

It’s fair to question the wisdom and security of nuclear weapons at European NATO bases. Indeed, Jeffrey Lewis has made a compelling case in Foreign Policy for removing these weapons from Turkey. Demonstrators have broken into the outer parts of nuclear security areas, although they have never come close to the weapons. 

The immediate question is how much danger the coup attempt in Turkey poses to the Incirlik weapons. 

The answer is not much.

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council- it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t) 

Council Winners  

• *First place with 2 votes!–Bookworm Room – The Devil And Gun Control
• Second place with 1 2/3 votes –Joshuapundit–A Message For France – And For Us
• Third place with 1 1/3 votes –Stately McDaniel Manor – Time For A Little Paranoia?
• Fourth place with 1 vote –Puma By Design – Casting call for extras, actors during Cleveland RNC violence
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –VA Right! – Was McAuliffe’s Appointment of Roush to the Va Supreme Court Related to his Convict Voting Order?
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –The Razor – Goth Inside
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –The Glittering Eye –Can We Live With Terrorism?
• Sixth place with 1/3 vote – The Daley Gator – Newt Gingrich is right about Sharia Law, and why he is short-sighted

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 1 2/3 votes! –Gavin McInnes/Taki’s Magazine – Oops, We Started A Race War submitted by The Watcher
• Second place with 1 1/3 votes – Captain Capitalism – Traits are No Substitutes for Accomplishments submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Third place *t* with 1 vote –City Journal –The Fire Spreads submitted by Stately McDaniel Manor
• Third place *t* with 1 vote –Intellectual Froglegs – Guilty As Hill submitted by Joshuapundit
• Third place *t* with 1 vote –The College Fix–Professor rejects Marxism after traveling the globe: ‘Socialism doesn’t work’submitted by Bookworm Room
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Jason Willick/The American Interest –The Make-Believe Supreme Court and the Coming Constitutional Crisis submitted by The Razor
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –The National Interest – Everything You Need to Know About Russia’s Lethal Tank Force submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote –Daniel Greenfield/Front Page Magazine –How the Media Covers Up Muslim and #BlackLivesMatter Terrorism submitted by Puma By Design
• Fifth place *t* with 1/3 vote –Heat Street –Elizabeth Warren Has A Bullying Problem, But No One Cares because She’s Not A Mansubmitted by The Daley Gator

See you next week!

More Chaos

The failed coup d’état by elements of Turkey’s military signals more repression and chaos in the Middle East.

We still lack important information on what motivated the attempt to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, its timing and how and why it collapsed so quickly. Nonetheless, we confidently predict Turkey will suffer several major domestic consequences, in turn causing significant international ripples.

Most importantly, Erdogan’s relentless pursuit of an increasingly radical Islamicization of Turkey will proceed largely unfettered. And no significant institutional or political opposition inside Turkey now stands athwart his penchant for authoritarianism.

The triumph of Erdogan’s government means he has swept the board clear of any real impediments to implementing his radical policies. Both as prime minister and now as president, Erdogan has focused single-mindedly on an Islamicist attack on Turkey’s secular constitution, and the very foundations of a modern Turkey, rising from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire after World War I, envisioned by Mustafa Kemal.

Turkey’s military, following the pattern laid down by Kemal (known widely as “Ataturk,” meaning “father of the Turks”), was intended to be the guardian of the new, Europe-oriented nation-state he strove to create.

Although it may sound odd to Western ears that the military was to safeguard civil rights, especially freedom of religion, in this new Turkey, Kemal well understood that modern thinking needed time to take root and replace the Byzantine medievalism that had characterized Ottoman rule for centuries.

Sadly, Erdogan’s religious zeal has proven Kemal right. For years, Erdogan has replaced high-ranking, secular military officers with loyal Islamicists in a blatant effort to bend the military away from its secular vocation, toward endorsing or at least accepting a re-established state Islam, harking back to the deceased Ottoman caliphate.

Erdogan’s success at stuffing the military’s top officer corps with Islamicists and political loyalists likely explains why Turkey’s military wasn’t fully behind the coup attempt. Indeed, as seemed clear even in the revolt’s early hours, it appeared more an act of desperation, a last gasp by the military’s pro-secular elements, rather than a concerted effort by a united military establishment.
Erdogan’s increasingly dictatorial approach to governance has in recent years become ever clearer internationally, epitomized by his arrests and harassment of both foreign and domestic journalists he deemed critical of his regime. In earlier days, serving as mayor of Istanbul, he said publicly: “Democracy is like a street car. You ride it to the stop you want, and then you get off.” Friday’s coup attempt may well be precisely the stop Erdogan was waiting for.

When he says the coup plotters “will pay a heavy price,” he isn’t kidding. And he will not stop with the coup’s central figures.

Obviously, any military coup in a theoretically democratic state is illegal (at least until it succeeds), but we can expect Erdogan’s crackdown to be relentless and thorough.

Conveniently, Erdogan has been hard at work for years packing the Turkish judiciary with Islamicists and political supporters. As with his “cleansing” of the military’s officer corps, Erdogan’s placement and promotion of loyalists within the judiciary will now pay important benefits as hundreds, maybe even thousands of “coup plotters,” accomplices and mere political opponents of Erdogan face the consequences of failure.

Erdogan will also have a free hand in dealing with Kurdish political and military opposition efforts, particularly those pursuing an independent Kurdistan.

Internationally, Erdogan will obviously be strengthened significantly, at least once Turkey settles back down. It comes as no surprise that Iran was among the first governments to congratulate Erdogan on retaining power. 

His victory is a significant blow to the West and to the NATO alliance, with every indication that Turkey will turn increasingly rapidly away from Western values and America in particular, 44’s personal friendship with Erdogan notwithstanding. And despite Erdogan’s recent reconciliation with Israel, there should be no celebrations in Jerusalem.

The lamps have been going out all over the Middle East for years. Many more went out this weekend in Turkey. 

Whether we will see them relit in our lifetime remains unknown.

Valkyrie

Valkyrie is an ancient viking superstition. When brave Norsemen fell in battle (often raiding parties) these hotties with their mammoth shields would appear on winged horses and tote off the fallen to heathen heaven - Valhalla.

Despite oathbreaking, defacing images of gods and wickedness in general - all would be forgiven by success in combat - especially if the offender died a heroic saga inspiring death.

Claus Schenk was a real European blue blood aristocrat. Awarded nobility back in the Holy Roman Empire days ( funny though - HRE was a triple no go - it was neither Holy, Roman or an Empire) the family became von Staffenberg.

In WWII time Deutschland, Valkyrie was code for the Nazi party to maintain control of the Reich in the event of a catastrophic disaster that killed or incapacitated the leadership.
By summertime 1944, 3rd Reich was facing the horrible modern era manifestation of von Gneisenau and von Scharnhorst's ultimate nightmare - the multi front war.

Allies had captured Rome and were grinding their way up the bloody Eyetye boot of Italy, Allies were fixing to bust out of the Normandy bocage and unleash Great Satan's panzer General Patton.

And the largest defeat in modern history - the destruction of Armee Gruppe Centre saw the annihilation of 20 irreplacable German divisions in a massive Soviet blitz that drove Germany out of Russia and vaulted the Red Army right outside Warsaw.

Despite Allied claims that only unconditional surrender would satiate the Allied and Russian thirst for righteous payback, a clique of Wehrmacht officers plotted a coup d'tat' against 3rd Reich in an effort to spare Germany ultimate defeat and dismemberment using the contingency plan of 'Valkyrie'.

Germany's armed forces had to swear a 'holy oath' - not to the state or nation or a constitution - but to der fuhrer personally. In order for the plot to work - der fuhrer had to be killed. Valkyrie also planned trying the wartime leaders of 3rd Reich for war and humanitarian crimes, working out reparations with the allies and bringing Germany back into the family of nations.

Claus Schenk von Stauffenberg was a panzer officer that had fought in Poland, France, Russia and with the famous 'Afrika Korps'.

Suffering debilitating wounds from combat - losing an eye, a hand and three fingers, Claus and his co conspirators - facing the truth of the regime they so valiantly served - tried in their own way to rectify their sins - singular and collective.

Valkyrie energized the evil leaders of 3rd Reich, anyone connected with the cats of the coup were ruthlessly hunted down, tormented and slain. The ground ran red with German blood. The regime was determined to fight to the last and like Wagner's "Ride of the Valkyries" heralded the final lo down ho down like Wagner's viking final, apocalyptic battle - "Gotterdammerung"

In the next 9 months Deutsche military fought until there was literally no country left to defend. The Third Reich - she died kicking and screaming, finally crashing down in an orgy of pulverized, burning cities and a river of blood — civilian and military, German and non-German. Military history knows no year quite like 1944 -45 and if lucky, will never see another.

Pic - "2 field marshals, 19 generals, 26 colonels, two ambassadors, seven diplomats, one minister, three secretaries of state, as well as the head of the Reich Police - all perished in the failed Coup d"etat of 20 July 1944".



After The Caliphate

Even as it launches waves of terrorist attacks around the globe, the Islamic State is quietly preparing its followers for the eventual collapse of the caliphate it proclaimed with great fanfare two years ago. 

 Islamic State officials, in public statements and in interviews, insist that the group’s “caliphate” project remains viable while also acknowledging that military setbacks have forced a change in strategy.

 A remarkable editorial last month in al-Naba, the Islamic State’s weekly Arabic newsletter, offered a gloomy assessment of the caliphate’s prospects, acknowledging the possibility that all its territorial holdings could ultimately be lost. Just two years ago, jihadist leaders heralded the start of a glorious new epoch in the world’s history with the establishment of their Islamic “caliphate,” which at the time encompassed most of eastern Syria and a vast swath of northern and western Iraq, a combined territory roughly the size of Great Britain.

 “The Crusaders’ Illusions in the Age of the Caliphate,” sought to rally the group’s followers by insisting that the Islamic State would continue to survive, even if all its cities fell to the advancing “crusaders” — the separate Western- and Russian-backed forces arrayed against them. 

“The crusaders and their apostate clients are under the illusion that . . . they will be able to eliminate all of the Islamic State’s provinces at once, such that it will be completely wiped out and no trace of it will be left,” the article states. In reality, the group’s foes “will not be able to eliminate it by destroying one of its cities or besieging another of them, or by killing a soldier, an emir or an imam,” it says.

The editorial asserts that the “whole world­ . . . has changed” with the creation of a theocratic enclave that has “shown all of mankind what the true Islamic state is like.”

“If they want to achieve true victory — they will not, God willing — they will have to wait a long time: until an entire generation of Muslims that was witness to the establishment of the Islamic State and the return of the caliphate . . . is wiped out.”

Coup d'etat

As coups go, the Turkish effort was a study in ineptitude: No serious attempt to capture or muzzle the existing political leadership, no leader ready to step in, no communication strategy (or even awareness of social media), no ability to mobilize a critical mass within either the armed forces or society. In their place a platoon of hapless soldiers on a bridge over the Bosporus in Istanbul and the apparently uncoordinated targeting of a few government buildings in Ankara.

 It was enough for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking on his cellphone’s FaceTime app, to call supporters into the streets for the insurrection to fold. That Erdogan will no doubt be the chief beneficiary of this turmoil, using it to further his push for an autocratic Islamist Turkey, does not mean that he staged it.

Yet, it doesn't mean Erdogan didn't stage it either

A Syrian government newspaper says the failed coup in Turkey was fabricated and aimed at tarnishing the reputation of the military.

The daily Al-Thawra said Sunday that the attempted coup was a plot by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to “avenge the military and strip it of its remaining popular support.”

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council- it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t) 

Council Winners  

 

• *First place with 2 1/3 votes!–Joshuapundit–Life, Death And Faith
• Second place *t* with 2 votes –Bookworm Room – Black Lives Don’t Matter
• Second place *t* with 2 votes –Stately McDaniel Manor – Is America Racist?
• Third place *t* with 2/3 votes –The Razor – What If They Gave a Race War and Nobody Came?
• Third place *t* with 2/3 votes –VA Right! – For Those Hoping for a Dump Trump Moment at the Convention – Watch the 2012 Roll Call
• Third place *t* with 2/3 votes –Puma By Design – Leader of NBPP: Need Blacks to Migrate to Five Southern States; Form a Black Nation
• Third place *t* with 2/3 votes –GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD – Prokhorovka

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 votes! –Police Officer Jay Stalien–Facebook post re blacks and crimesubmitted by Bookworm Room
• Second place with 1 2/3 votes – City Journal –America’s Worst President? submitted by Stately McDaniel Manor
• Third place with 1 1/3 votes –Eli Lake/Bloomberg – The Palestinian Incentive Program for Killing Jews submitted by Joshuapundit
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –The Washington Times – One law for us, another for you submitted by Puma By Design
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Elliot Abrams/Council On Foreign Relations – The Middle East Quartet’s New Report Misses the Point submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Sultan Knish –Divest From Palestinesubmitted by The Daley Gator
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Damon Linker/The Week – Race, justice, and America’s founding mistake submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Michael Walsh/PJ Media – More Proof the Fix Was in at the FBI submitted by The Watcher
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes–Edmund Kozak/Lifezette The Cop-Hater in Chief submitted by The Watcher

See you next week!

Bastille Day 2016

 The terrible Bastille Day terror attack in Nice that has claimed at least 84 lives suggests that the French security authorities are still struggling to come to terms with the sheer scale of the threat from Islamist extremists their country faces. 

This is the third large scale terror attack France has suffered since Islamist gunmen attacked the offices of the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine in January last year, and the fact that the key suspect in last night’s attack was, as far as we understand, a French-Tunisian petty criminal known to the police indicates the French authorities need to improve their methods of monitoring potential Islamist terrorists. 

No doubt they had been quietly congratulating themselves on making sure the high profile Euro 2016 football tournament, which ended in Paris on Sunday, passed without any major act of terrorism taking place.

But the threat of a lone wolf attack – when a terrorist decides to launch their own attack using whatever means are available – is the nightmare scenario for security officials throughout Europe. In Britain we suffered our own lone wolf attack when two Islamist extremists hacked to death Fusilier Lee Rigby on a south London street with machetes in 2013. 

Using a lorry as an instrument of mass terrorism is another example of how easy it is for those intent on killing and maiming the maximum number of people to achieve their nefarious ends.

This is not the first time lorries have been used to commit acts of mass terrorism. Iranian-backed terrorists regularly used suicide truck bombs to attack their targets during the Lebanese civil war during the 1980s, and more recently such improvised weapons have been used to devastating effect in the brutal civil wars currently raging in Iraq and Syria. 

But the fact that a common criminal was able to hire a lorry and drive it through crowds of innocent revellers on Nice’s packed Promenade des Anglais last night illustrates both how easy it is for terrorist fanatics to commit mass murder, and how difficult it is for the security authorities both in France and elsewhere to prevent them from so doing.

Certainly, as more becomes known about the man responsible for last night’s attack, the French authorities will be under renewed pressure to explain why a key potential suspect like this was not subjected to proper monitoring, and also to explain what further measures can be taken to try to make sure than France is better protected from similar attacks in future.

Over The Last Year...

One year ago today, 44 announced the start of the flawed nuclear deal that he claimed would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Unfortunately, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has made America less safe. It at best only delays Iran’s nuclear-weapons program and does nothing to protect Israel and our allies in the region from Tehran’s continued nefarious activities.

Over the last year...

 Iran has kidnapped U.S. citizens and dual citizens as part of its statecraft. Iran still has not provided information on the whereabouts of Floridian Robert Levinson, who is the longest-held hostage in American history. Iran also continues its unjust detention of Siamak Namazi and his father, Baquer Namazi. 

 

Iran has expanded its support to proxy forces in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, which has been made easier by the $100 billion Tehran received because of the JCPOA. The head of designated terrorist group Hezbollah recently admitted that his group, which has the blood of Americans and Israelis on its hands, receives funding directly from Iran. 

 

Over the last year, Iran has continued to expand its ballistic-missile program. Iranian missiles launched in March were marked with a statement in Hebrew reading, “Israel must be wiped off the arena of time.” The  administration has backtracked from its original assertions that these launches were prohibited by U.N. Security Council Resolutions. 

 

In January, Iran detained U.S. sailors in international waters and an investigation by the chief of naval operations noted that Iran “violated international law by impeding the boats’ innocent passage transit and they violated sovereign immunity by boarding, searching and seizing the boats and by photographing and videotaping the crew.”

This has been Iran’s record of continued and expanded aggression and provocation. Meanwhile, at every opportunity, Secretary of State John Kerry and other administration officials have encouraged foreign companies to do business with Iran’s terrorist-supporting regime and have attempted to provide Iran access to the U.S. financial system. Secretary of State John Kerry often seems to be more interested in acting as Iran’s de facto trade representative than holding Iran accountable for its actions.

Unstoppable?

Khalifa!

Is the Islamic State Unstoppable?

According to monthly updates from Amaq, the group’s official news outlet, the Islamic State was carrying out 50 to 60 suicide attacks per month in Iraq and Syria last November. Today the number of such attacks is 80 to 100 per month, an average of two to three operations a day. The trend peaked in March, with 112 members blowing themselves up in Syria and Iraq.

The Islamic State is shifting tactics, and not just on the battlefields of Syria and Iraq. The group is reverting to insurgency tactics it relied on before June 2014, when it took over Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, and declared the formation of a caliphate. This operational change has been on plain display in recent weeks: Hundreds of civilians were killed in a spate of suicide attacks attributed to the Islamic State in Turkey, Iraq, Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia. In Baghdad last week, more than 280 civilians were killed when a car bomb exploded outside a shopping mall.

Some people have suggested that this is a sign of the group’s desperation and weakness. In fact, it demonstrates its strength and long-term survival skills. The Islamic State has known for years that it would suffer setbacks and have to find ways to adapt. In “The Management of Savagery,” a foundational text for the Islamic State’s ideology and strategy published in 2004, the author pointed out that in the 12th century, Muslims defeated the Crusaders with “small bands” and “separate, disparate organizations.” The group has not forgotten that message.

When the Islamic State’s leaders declared the formation of a caliphate, they opened a new phase in global jihadism. The promise of living in an Islamist utopia reportedly attracted new members from some 90 countries. In interviews, Islamic State members have joined because of the group’s military victories, its puritanical governance and its clear ideology.

 Thanks to its claim as a caliphate, the Islamic State was able to overshadow Al Qaeda. Since then, the Islamic State’s ambitions have grown as it has tried to claim leadership of global jihadism, not only setting up foreign cells and organizing attacks from inside Syria but also encouraging sympathizers to carry out strikes in its name.

Still, the Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria remain the Islamic State’s heartland. Even if Chechens are suspected of bombing the Istanbul airport, or Bangladeshi sympathizers took hostages in Dhaka, a majority of the group’s rank and file and leadership are still Iraqis and Syrians. A generation of young Syrians and Iraqis living under the caliphate’s rule has been brainwashed. The political, social and sectarian issues in these countries that gave rise to the group still exist. Some may even be worsening.

The government in Baghdad continues to use Shiite militias to fight in Sunni areas, pushing some Iraqis into the Islamic State’s waiting arms, or at least encouraging people to view the group as their sole defender. Meanwhile, Syria’s civil war rages on and new conflicts emerge within it, attracting fresh recruits. Even American officials have told me privately that the political changes necessary to stem the group’s appeal in Iraq and Syria are lagging behind the military advances. The number of members volunteering to blow themselves up is not a sign of a dying group.

The threat is not going away. The group’s ultimate goal remains unchanged: control of the Muslim world. The apocalyptic idealists who form the Islamic State’s core believe that they are ordained by God to accomplish this. And they will change their tactics as often as they need to in order to get closer to that goal, whether that means increasing the number of suicide bombers or shifting the front lines in Syria.

Prokhorovka

"It. Must. Not. Fail"

Elefants, Tigers and Panthers, oh my!

By spring time 1943 das Dritten Reiches was in a hexen kessel of scary dimensions. In the last year Great Satan and Great Britain had driven the vaunted Afrika Korps into extinction, sortee'd several "Thousand Bomber Raids" that carpetly xformed ancient Deutsch cities into flaming craters, Battle for the Atlantic was looking kinda iffy and worst of all - the encirclement, destruction and ultimate surrender of wehrmacht's nearly 1 million (550K to 900K - depending on the source) combat truppen of vPaulus' 6th army at Stalingrad.

Despite the ferociously fearful mauling wehrmacht took on the Volga, Deutschland recovered and thanks to savage fighting hooked up with vManstein's famous back hand b slap, the ultimate Aryans retook Kharkov and inflicted amazingly horrific losses on the best Red Army could juggernaut.

As spring's thawing muddy rasputitsa sunk in - both sides frantically roused themselves out of exhaustion and prepped for the coming summer campaign.

The forced reinstatement of the forced retired "Klotzen, nicht kleckern" cat - the newly minted Generalinspekteur der Panzertruppen tripped out on a ruthlessly relentless reinvigoration of the panzer franchise by blitzing factories, design firms, unit creation/rebuilding ubungsplatzes and shooting ranges in a new blitz of genius born of desperation.

Even Luftwaffe got all panzer happy - sexing up something something sturzkampfflugzeug Stuka
with dual 37mm rapid fire cannons and deploying Henschelicious Hs-129

STAVKA knew their bulging bulge in the lines around Kursk would prob be the spot the hated NSDAPers would schwerpunkt in the coming months and conscripted anyone they could get their hands on to erect a formidable deep defensive belt - 500 miles of barb wire, over a million anti ppl and anti panzer mines remixed in a web of of ditches, scarps, counter-scarps, hedgehogs, roadblocks, minefields, fixed artillery impact areas, bunkers and a myriad of panzer obstructions, traps and general purpose nastiness on a colossal scale. Plus Comrade Stalin had spy sources at the highest levels of enemy command.

Sev months of infighting at OKH/OKW bout doing another Kharkov backhand - allowing Red Army to attack first, roll with flow and launch a crushing counter attack - or doing the fourplay forehand pre emptive attack - conterminously coalesced with quality control/production probs with the Panther (her 1st production engines enjoyed bursting into flames at the most inopportune moments), stubborn refusal of the sturmgeschutz to die on the vine and manpower in general held up Operation Zitadelle for months.

Purveyors of pre emption won out and on 5 July Germany attacked. The southern front of Zitadelle featured a combat rock star line up of 3rd Reich's finest panzerteers - all rebuilt, rearmed and reconstituted to Generalinspekteur specs - Großdeutschland, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 9th and 11th Panzer divisions and the newly created II Waffen Ss Panzer Korps

Featuring the lavishly equipped and fully crunk Ss Panzer Grenadier divisions of Liebstandarte, Das Reich and Totenkopf - vManstein formed 'Panzerkeil" - an uparmored wedge with Tigers at the tip, Panthers and Mk IV's fanning out behind with a creamy centre of inf armed with automatic weapons, mortar mounted or SP gunned SdKfz looking thingies with the base built of heavily armed panzergrenadiers in tracked vehics.

In contrast Zitadelle's northern commander Model used Montgomery's El Alamein idea of using inf to poke holes for the panzers to exploit - with disastrous results for his 9th Army.

These panzerkeil wedges were designed to crack open tender, sensitive portions of the southern defensive perimeters, break free and fan out for a fun fast trek like France 1940.

And they did. Chopping through an immense junkyard of trashed Soviet material, General Hausser's Feldpolizei Po Po hauled off columns of dazed and defeated Russian POWs, the final breakthrough was at hand on the morning of 12 July when II Ss breached Psel river - the last obstacle to Kursk - and collided with the Russian armored reserves at a place called Prokhorovka.

For over 8 hours this enormous armored brawl raged unabated, slashing the orchards and churning the lush, green cornfields of a few square miles of upper Donetz river valley into a blackened inferno of exploding armor, wrecked burning vehicles and charred corpses - drenched intermittantly by downpours from violent thunderstorms.

The controversial climax of Zitadelle involving over 2K panzers - as the largest panzer battle in history - has acquired mythic stats - heroic Russian stories of Russians ramming Deutsch Tigers, the 3 premier Waffen Ss fighting shoulder to shoulder, death ride of the panzers and a glorious Soviet victory suffer from hard facts as Prokhorovka gets re examined.

"...Closer study of the losses of each type of tank reveals that the corps lost about 70 tanks on July 12. In contrast, Soviet tank losses, long assumed to be moderate, were actually catastrophic.

"...In 1984, a history of the Fifth Guards Tank Army written by Rotmistrov himself revealed that on July 13 the army lost 400 tanks to repairable damage. He gave no figure for tanks that were destroyed or not available for salvage.

"...Evidence suggests that there were hundreds of additional Soviet tanks lost. Several German accounts mention that Hausser had to use chalk to mark and count the huge jumble of 93 knocked-out Soviet tanks in the Leibstandarte sector alone. Soviet sources say the tank strength of the army on July 13 was 150 to 200, a loss of about 650 tanks.

Germany's Lost Victories indeed, nicht wahr?

Regardless of appearance - Deutschland lost the initiative and despite desperate counters like Zhitomer, Totenkopf's amazingly tenacious blunting blow outside Warzawa or Unternehmen Frühlingserwachen, never again held the initiative. Red Army did. And they never let it go until 3rd Reich died kicking and screaming.

And it happened today - at Prokhorovka.

Pic - "Backhand or the forehand?"courtesy of Uncle Theo

F 15 Phobia

Tally Ho!

Our enemies fear the F 15 Eagle because she's still  like the ultimate Air Superiority fighter

Even today, a modernized Eagle is still considered a formidable opponent, and manufacturer Boeing has proposed updated versions that could keep the airframe flying for the better part of a century.
 
The F-15 traces its roots to the air war in Vietnam, and the inauspicious showing of American Air Force and Navy fighters versus their North Korean counterparts. Large, powerful American fighters, designed to tackle both air-to-air and air-to-ground missions, were performing poorly against their smaller, less powerful—but more maneuverable—North Vietnamese counterparts. The 13:1 kill ratio American fliers enjoyed in the Korean War dropped to an abysmal 1.5 to 1 kill ratio in Vietnam.

Contemporary fighters, such as the F-4 Phantom, had been designed under the assumption that the air-to-air missile had rendered dogfights obsolete, and with them the need for superiority maneuverability and a gun for air combat. The U.S. Air Force decided it needed a dedicated air superiority fighter, one that combined two powerful engines, a powerful radar, a large number of missiles and a gun. Above all, it had to be maneuverable enough to win a dogfight.

The Air Force issued a request for proposals for the new FX fighter in 1966, and no fewer than six companies submitted competing paper designs. No prototypes were built. The air service selected McDonnell Douglas (now a part of Boeing) in 1969, ordering 107 full-scale development planes.

The F-15 was a formidable aircraft. Early versions were powered by two Pratt & Whitney F100-PW-100 afterburning turbofan engines, producing 14,500 pounds of static thrust—23,500 with afterburners. This gave the aircraft a thrust-to-weight ratio of greater than one, making it so powerful that it was the first fighter to exceed the speed of sound in vertical flight. The F-15 had so much thrust it could climb to sixty-five thousand feet in just 122 seconds. In horizontal flight, the F-15 could reach speeds of Mach 2.5, and cruise at speeds of Mach 0.9.

The Eagle’s AN/APG-63 nose mounted radar was the most advanced of its day, a solid state radar with “look down/shoot down” capability and a range of up to 200 miles. This allowed the F-15 to pick out low-flying enemies on radar against the clutter generated by the ground. The radar was also the first to incorporate a programmable system processor, which allowed moderate upgrades to be done via software and not intrusive hardware updates.

 The F-15 was also designed with long range in mind. Carrying three six-hundred-pound fuel tanks, the F-15 had a range of three thousand miles, making it possible to fly from the continental United States to Europe without stopping or midair refueling. This would make it possible to quickly reinforce NATO air defenses in case of a crisis in Europe, and later would permit the Air Force to quickly dispatch F-15s to Saudi Arabia during Operation Desert Storm.

 The F-15’s first air-to-air kill was on June 27, when Israeli Air Force ace Moshe Melnik shot down a Syrian Air Force MiG-21 in his F-15A. Melnik would eventually down four aircraft from F-15As and F-15Cs, for a career total of eleven enemy fighters shot down. Melnik’s kill was the start of a remarkable string of 104 consecutive air-to-air victories for the F-15, with not a single Eagle lost. 

 The USAF bought its last F-15 in 2001, but foreign sales have kept Boeing’s production line humming since. The company has twice in recent years tried to again attract the interest of the Air Force, first with the semi-stealthy Silent Eagle in 2010. In 2016, Boeing again introduced a new F-15, Eagle 2040C. Eagle 2040C is designed to carry up to sixteen AIM-120D AMRAAM radar-guided missiles, more than four times the original number. The Talon HATE datalink would allow the upgraded design to network with the F-22 Raptor. One concept of operation would have the stealthy—but relatively short on firepower—F-22 flying among enemy aircraft, passing on targeting information to a Eagle 2040C acting as a flying missile battery.

In a world still dominated by fourth-generation fighters, the F-15 is an aging—but still formidable—fighter. The lack of sufficient numbers of F-22 Raptors to replace the Eagle has delayed the fighter’s retirement, and it now trains to complement the F-22 on the battlefield. The lack of a current, viable replacement means it will be at least until the early 2030s before the remaining C and E models are retired. The F-15 airframe in all its flavors will almost certainly spend an impressive half-century in active service— a first for a front line U.S. Air Force fighter.

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council- it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t) 

Council Winners 

• *First place with 2 2/3 votes!–Hillary Clinton: You’ll Be Able To See It From There
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes –Bookworm Room – The 40th anniversary of the raid on Entebbe
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes – Joshuapundit–When Justice Just Is Not
• Third place with 1 vote –Puma By Design – Marxist Private School in NYC Teaches White Children That They Are Born Racist.
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –The Glittering Eye –The Collapse of the Technocratic World Order
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –VA Right! – #Binary. Why I’m Blocking #NeverTrump and Anti Trump ‘Friends’ on Facebook
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD – Intervention Pendulum

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 1/3 votes! –Kurt Schlichter – You Owe Them Nothing – Not Respect, Not Loyalty, Not Obedience submitted by Joshuapundit
• Second place *t* with 1 1/3 votes –Michael Walsh/PJ Media – The Day the Rule of Law Died submitted by The Glittering Eye
• Second place *t* with 1 1/3 votes –Wolf Howling–Hillary, The FBI & A Travesty Of Justicesubmitted by Bookworm Room
• Third place with 1 vote –NRO –Washington’s Hollow Men submitted by Stately McDaniel Manor
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Bearing Arms –Democrats looking to gut our Bill of Rightssubmitted by The Daley Gator
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes – Brigitte Gabriel – (video)Religion of Peace: A Brief History of Islam submitted by The Watcher
• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 votes –Glenn Reynolds/USA Today – About that Clinton-Lynch accidental meeting submitted by The Watcher (hat tip, Puma By Design)

See you next week!