Whispers

When it comes to non profit jawflapping - Great Satan's Especial Envoy to Mullahopolis literally wrote the book.

800 pages of sincere attempts to reach out, bond, find common cause and handle pressing probs and issues betwixt Little Satan and Palestine the fun summit way instead of the old school M16 way.

And all for naught. Ambassador Ross concluded that Comrade 'PaPa' Arafat was a murderous, intolerant oath breaking creep and all that negotiation jazz had actually made matters worse.

This is significant.

As P4 indicated, the cat the Persians call "Mr Iran" - sweetly ushered into the top levels of Little Satan's fun and free choice democracy - may freak.

"The Israeli government may ultimately see itself so threatened by the prospect of an Iranian nuclear weapon that it would take preemptive military action to derail or delay it."

Or, as one of Bi Bi's cats laid it out

“This is an existential threat for Israel, but it will be a blow for American interests, especially on the energy front. Who will dominate the oil in the region—Washington or Tehran?”

Great Satan is launching a massive diplopolititary effort to engage the mullahs while there is still a tiny tiny window to do it to it.

Envoy Ross is blinging up his team. He's being assisted by Ben Fishman, his former researcher and special assistant at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, as well as by Iran expert Ray Takeyh, (check this out) who has recently left the Council on Foreign Relations for the State Department.

Neither could be reached for comment.

Pic "High Level discussions"

Lo Down Ho Down

Foreign Policy Initiatives debut shindig was by all accounts - a successful lo down ho down. Remaining true to their mission statements those crazy cool daemoneocons put the 'party' in non partisan by hooking up with GOPer's and Donkies like Senator McCain and Congresslady Harmon.

"Afghanistan: Planning For Success" was the name and victory was the game.

Fully crunk military cats on hand to point out that killing killers is a very workable military solution included Former Commander of Combined Forces Command-Afghanistan and Director, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University General David W. Barno and Carnegie's Dr. Ashley J. Tellis.

The real treat though was featuring the Kagan brothers - Dr Robert of Carnegie and Dr Frederick of American Enterprise.

Robert Kagan is kinda like the philosopher King of 'daemocrazy' - the idea that fun and free choice - eventually trump everything and that Great Satan really is Great.

Frederick Kagan is the cat that thought up Surge in the Iraq Study Group. His AfPak plans are pretty cool too.

In advance of the NATO summit in Strasbourg-Kehl and on the same day as the international conference on Afghanistan in The Hague, this conference was a unique opportunity to reflect on recent developments and examine the options confronting Great Satan with insights from leading analysts and members of Congress.

Sounds sweet! right?

Hold up!

Faster than one could say "Taming American Power" Foreign Policy Magazine's resident Great Satan and Little Satan hater - Realpolitik fanboy Dr Steven M Walt freaked out and pointed out that America Unbound would totally queer the mix on sucking up to intolerant and illegit regimes instead of confronting (or Regime Changing) them whenever the need or opportunity arises.

Decorum prohibits repeating many of his incorrect, boring and inappropriate handwringing defeatist rambling rants - though his closer is a hoot!

"So the fate of the "Foreign Policy Initiative" should be regarded as a litmus test. Is the United States genuinely capable of learning from past mistakes, to include learning whose advice deserves to be ignored?"


Carebeful Doc!!

After all - Realpolitik's track record is much worse - a corrupt, ammoral cult of stability that brought no peace, no stability, no containment, and no peace.

Realpolitik IS the litmus test for genocide, terrorism, oil embargoes and wars.

And in a way - Foreign Policy Initiatives- is proving Great Satan has learned "...from past mistakes..."

Pic - "Lo Down Ho Down"

Doha Ha

It's time! Arab League kicks off their summit today in Qatar and looks like another in a long line of non profit jawflapping events that produce little agreement - much less an action plan that inspires action.

Arab League's entire raison d'etre' is to:

“draw closer the relations between member States and co-ordinate collaboration between them, to safeguard their independence and sovereignty, and to consider in a general way the affairs and interests of the Arab countries.”

'Safeguarding sovereignty' is pretty much happy talk for maintaining power at all costs.

Like when Sudan's fellow despot Field Marshal President For Life came under fire for intolerant genocide against his own dear people. Arab League freaked when the Internat'l Criminal Court called it and issued arrest warrants for current ruler - 1st time in history.

Majesties, Excellencies and Highnesses will all be on hand. Certainly a great chance for Iran to launch a killing decap strike and render Arab League totally hapless, helpless, clueless and hopeless.

While the list of illegit leaders and/or sychophantic fanboys of regimes (various and sundry) is incomplete - here's the VIP's possible to attend - and may cause as much drama, hissy fits and racket as wearing a thong to church:

Iran's Pres Ahmedenejad -

Rumor's Mill grinds out that Qataris invited Iran's fiery little rocketeer as an 'Official Obsever" Pyramidland and Saudiland freaked and objected. Latest buzz reveals Ahmedenejdad won't daytrip down to sunny sunny climes. Keep an eye on the Radar Screen though - a dramatic, unannounced visit would be more in style.

Sudan's Criminally indicted Leadership -

Omar Bashir. Thanks to tons of support for Sudan's dictator in Arab League, he'll make it. Despite concerns he would be arrested in accord with the International Criminal Court warrant.

While he's made showy trips to Cairo and Eritrea, he may pull another fast one. If he does, brace for an extremely, richly deserved distraction frenzy.

Egypt's President Life Hosni -

Mubarak has been trying to destroy the summit, flying around trying to convince other leaders not to attend, and the failure of the Palestinian talks thus far mean that he has nothing dramatic to present. Current word is that he will not make it. This may hurt the summit, but also risks highlighting Mubarak's feeble diplomacy (after all, Hosni is the cat that failed to deliver Palestinian reconciliation charade).

King Abdullah of Jordan -

Still PO'd over Qatar's cable Al Jazeera's expose' that his pa was a CIA spy, Abdallah will be there. He always attends summits, and pointed out that al-Jazeera and Qatari's gov were two entirely different critters.

HAMAS -

Any Fatah-Hamas breakthrough will want repstatives of both sides there, those hoping to maintain the containment of HAMAS will not. Qatar, which has hosted Khaled Meshaal before - land is a big advocate of a unity government, will likely invite him again. Whether he comes and what he does will be closely watched.

Nuri al-Maliki PM of Iraq -

The Iraqis reportedly decided to send their Prime Minister instead of President Jalal Talabani, which could be taken as a signal of their growing political integration into the Arab world and Maliki's personal growing involvement.

So - depending on the shows and no shows - what kind of agenda will be realised?

Syria. The leading storyline will be the nature of Syrian engagement. The Saudis have been driving a rapprochement with Syria which has become one of the key elements of the shifting Arab order. Summit watchers will be looking to see how this plays out in the deliberations, in the personal dynamics (will there be a recreation of the famous "couch summit" in Kuwait, where the Saudis literally sat Bashar al-Asad down with his rivals for the photographers?), and in the final statement.

It's linked to the American outreach to Syria (i.e. the Feltman/ Shapiro visit), to the endless struggle over Lebanon, to Syria's role in the intra-Palestinian struggles, and to the possibility of movement on the Syrian-Israeli peace talks. Expect to see a big show of Syrian amity.

Palestinian unity talks. The hopes of having a national unity government to present in Doha ended this week, after the talks stalled. The talks will likely continue on the margins in Doha, but don't expect a resolution.

And of course - how to cut a deal with Little Satan.

2002 Arab Peace Initiative is still on the table, but won't stay there forever.


"Will Lebanon, whose policy is dictated by Hiz'B'Allah, agree to peace with Israel even if a peace agreement is reached with Syria? And will fundamentalist Sudan be in any hurry to shake hands with Benjamin Netanyahu? And what will the Palestinians propose? Peace in Ramallah and war in the Gaza Strip? Even the Gulf states will find it hard to form a uniform policy on Israel."

Iran.

Will the summit focus more on Little Satan or on Iran? Whether the summit frames the major challenges to the Arab world around Little Satan or around Iran will be carefully monitored -- as will how confrontational the Arabs are towards the Iranians.

Art - "Dohahaha"

The Girls Are Back In Town

Way back in the last millennium - way before 'Hard Rock' magically xformed the genre into "Classic Rock" an Irish group stormed the charts, clubs and concert halls with a killer tune that still gets the blood pumping and the feets a thumping.

Thin Lizzy's essential "The boys are back in town" featured dual harmony lead guitars, a walking talking bass line and a drum beat that just would not stop (fully stocked with jazzy snazzy hi hat punches and signatures).

"Remember that chick that used to dance a lot - every night she was
on the floor shaking what she's got - when I tell you she was cool - she was red hot - man she was steaming"

In a way - Thin Lizzy's ode to being wild, free and desirable kinda makes a great soundtrack for the newly unleashed daemoneocon think tank called "The Foreign Policy Iniative"

"The United States remains the world’s indispensable nation --
indispensable to international peace, security, and stability, and indispensable to safe-guarding and advancing the ideals and principles we hold dear."

Whoa!

Who is sweetly talking such sweet talking sweet talk?

Weekly Standard's Bill Krystol for one. Along with fellow PNAC cat the super savvy Dr Robert Kagan.

The old school Iraqi Provisional Gov spokescat Dan Senor is there too and it looks delish!

"Mission Statement
In 2009 the United States--and its democratic allies--face many foreign policy challenges. They come from rising and resurgent powers, including China and Russia. They come from other autocracies that violate the rights of their citizens. They come from rogue states that work with each other in ways inimical to our interests and principles, and that sponsor terrorism and pursue weapons of mass destruction.

They come from Al Qaeda and its affiliates who continue to plot attacks against the United States and our allies. They come from failed states that serve as havens for terrorists and criminals and spread instability to their neighbors.

The United States faces these challenges while engaged in military operations across the globe, including in Iraq and Afghanistan. The sacrifice of American lives and significant economic expenditure in these conflicts has led to warnings of U.S. strategic overreach, and calls for American retrenchment.

There are those who hope we can just return to normalcy--to pre-9/11 levels of defense spending and pre-9/11 tactics. They argue for a retreat from America’s global commitments and a renewed focus on problems at home, an understandable if mistaken response to these difficult economic times.

In fact, strategic overreach is not the problem and retrenchment is not the solution. The United States cannot afford to turn its back on its international commitments and allies--the allies that helped us defeat fascism and communism in the 20th century, and the alliances we have forged more recently, including with the newly liberated citizens of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Our economic difficulties will not be solved by retreat from the international arena. They will be made worse.

In this new era, the consequences of failure and the risks of retreat would be even greater than before. The challenges we face require 21st century strategies and tactics based on a renewed commitment to American leadership.

The United States remains the world’s indispensable nation -- indispensable to international peace, security, and stability, and indispensable to safe-guarding and advancing the ideals and principles we hold dear."

A total non profit org - FPI will be promoting:

*Continuing Great Satan's worldly engagement--diplomatic, economic, and military—in the world and rejection of policies that would lead her down the path to isolationism;

*Robust support for America’s democratic allies and opposition to rogue regimes that threaten American interests;

*Human rights of those oppressed by their governments, and U.S. leadership in working to spread political and economic freedom;

*Strong military with the defense budget needed to ensure that America is ready to confront the threats of the 21st century;

*Internat'l economic engagement as a key element of Great Satan's foreign policy in this time of great economic dislocation.

"FPI looks forward to working with all who share these objectives, irrespective of political party, so that the United States successfully confronts its challenges and make progress toward a freer and more secure future."

This unrepentant realization that America ain't what's wrong with the world, that with allies, friends or all by her lonesome Great Satan is the indespensible (and She's dangerous!!) nation remains vital meds for America fans.

FPI features an email alert to keep you hooked up with all the latest news, gossip, dossiers and designs.

"Guess who just got back today? Those wild-eyed boys that had been
away Haven't changed, haven't much to say But man, I still think those cats are great..."

Pic - "Friday night they'll be dressed to kill..."

44's Neoconservatistic Bent

Daniel Larison, in his post attacking Barack Obama's commitment to American success in Afghanistan, demonstrates it's not so much the administration's policy that bothers him, but the policy legitimacy the administration's military and civilian reinforcements give to the "evil" neocons:

If it was a fantasy in Iraq “to use military and civilian power to promote democracy, nurture civil society and rebuild failed states,” it remains a fantasy today. It makes no difference what label one gives to it, and it is certainly not a fantasy that only neoconservatives embrace. If Americans have not learned by now that such efforts are folly, and more important that they would not be worth it even if they turned out to be successful, it may indeed say something about our national character. What I fear is that Obama, who has always been an interventionist with great confidence in this fantasy of what American power can achieve, believes that the “energetic and ambitious response” is what the American public desires and will support for years to come ....Because Obama is setting far too ambitious goals for Afghanistan with too few resources, while largely neglecting (or exacerbating) more significant problems inside Pakistan that are gradually making our position in Afghanistan untenable, he runs the risk of jeopardizing public support for the much more limited and achievable security goals that are in our interest and the interest of Afghanistan’s neighbors. In the end, he will have the support of the fantasists who led us into Iraq and liberal internationalists who are still invested in the idea of nation-building, and he will have to face the growing numbers of people who have grown weary of a Long War that has ceased to make any sense (if it ever made sense in the first place).

Let me start with this last part first: The "Long War" is the war on terror, and to question if it ever made sense "in the first place" is precisely why "paleoconservatives" are rightly marginalized as unpatriotic. When the U.S. was attacked in September 2001, the "paleos" were quick to blame the U.S. for its expansive foreign engagement as triggering a generously deserved "blowback." Virtually no one else in American politics felt the same way, except for a few hare-brained academic radicals, the same folks who would later agitate for a "million Mogadishus" on American forces.

When the Iraq war came, Patrick Buchanan made unhinged anti-Jewish attacks on the Bush administration's neoconservatives, asking "whose war" is this? Of course, "losertarians" like Justin Raimondo have made common cause the leading factions of the neo-Stalinist left, and here we have Daniel Larison excoriating the Iraq deployment as "folly," as if U.S. forces under General David Petraeus had not engineered the greatest military/strategic turnaround since World War II. And this is after even some of the most hardline "paleos" have conceded to reality in acknowledging the magnitude of the American victory.

What's actually funny is that Larison - for all his verbosity - doesn't actually say anything of value to the policy debate. I mean, who can honestly say that Americans have "no real national interest" in a safe, secure, and sustainable Afghanistan? Indeed, what would even be an actual interest then? Even an "offshore balancing" approach to U.S. stragegy assumes the potential for the U.S. to be pulled into events on the periphery - precisely because the the U.S. in primus inter pares in world affairs, and there is an extant demand for American leadership in providing public goods in world commerce and international security.

But Larison has no answer. Any engagement beyond America's shores would qualify as "frittering away our resources to no apparent purpose," and umpteen citations to "genuine" conservatives like Andrew Bacevich or arch-appeasers like Matthew Yglesias doesn't alter the fundamental truth that there is evil abroad, and that there is a job to be won in combating it.

Who you gonna call?If folks are going to criticize Obama on Afghanistan, it should be for not doing enough.

As Michael Yon noted this week, "the increase of 21,000 U.S. troops is likely just a bucket of water on the growing bonfire." Michael Yon is hardly a "neocon," although the very "fantasists" that Larison excoriates have suggested that despite Obama's caution, "the president is pragmatic in the best sense of the word."

The opposite of "pragmatic" is impractical or irrationally ideological, and so it's worth considering who's really in a "fantasy" world here, the president or Mr. Larison?

Art - "Rocket Ho" by invisible consequential

Submitted by Dr Donald Douglas of "American Power"

Little Satan's Sudan Strike

Gossip and rumours about Little Satan's day trip to deliver a wicki smack to Iran via Sudan sends very clear signals in a hood where often times it's what is not said as opposed to what's actually spoken.

Since HAMAS and Iran both are hooking up with the only regime sporting a leader for life that also happens to have multiple arrest warrants out for him ( first time for a sitting leader) - Little Satan risks very little. Blaming Great Satan is a nonstarter.

After all, tough to feel sympathy for a genocidal regime getting the Smacky McAssy treatment.

Unverified sources indicate a quartet of Little Satan F 15's sortee'd for the 1400 mile trip.

Getting there requires a flight of about two and a half hours, most likely a flight path along the Red Sea coast, below Saudi and Egyptian radar with aerial refueling.

4 Ra'Am F15 Little Satan mods popped up over Sudan's beachfront turf, hung a tighty righty and annihilated 39 people trucking along in 17 trucks.

The quiz is:

What all were those trucks toting?

For Iran's missile base in the Strip - the addition of the Iranian Fajr 5 would be significant.

Fajr-5 missile is launched from a mobile platform (which is awful truck looking btw), she supposedly has a range of between 60-70 kilometers.

45 miles for the unmetrical.

Fajr 5 is constructed by the Iranians, reportedly with help from NoKo and China.

Just like Katyusha and Scud, max range is only accurate to like a radius of around one kilometer. There are unconfirmed though believable reports that Iran has tested a chemical warhead for the Fajr-5.

Addition of Fajr 5 into the Strip (chemical Warheads or not) is scary indeed. Little Satan's tender and sensitive goodies could well be in range of such a launch from the Strip.

Not to mention the only target HAMAS seems to go for - innocent civilians.

Iran learned from the Sudan strike that Little Satan has excellent intelligence, and that she can, and she will roll the dice to strike enemy enablers.

But Iran already knew that.

Rumours that Little Satan vaporized Mullah made missiles on the very first day of the retarded rocket war of '06 in Lebanon, sweetly buzzing and blitzing super sensitive suspect sites in Syria - not to mention knocking off cats like Hiz'B'Allah murder expert Imad Mugahniyah and Syrian General Mohammed Suleiman shows that Little Satan got game in the shadowy world of precise intell.

Little Satan's Sudan tour de force means Little Satan could act out any time - anywhere she wants in the greater ME.

It also means Iran may be wanting Commonwealth Russia to speed up delivery and deployment of the dreaded S300 Super Future Air Defense Network too.





Art - "We operate in many places near and far, and carry out strikes in a manner that strengthens our deterrence."

Sultan Of Swat

When a February peace deal between Pakistan's government and pro-Taliban cleric Sufi Mohammed promised to reimpose sharia law in the country's war-torn Swat Valley, world attention focused on the pact.

Swat, once known as the "Switzerland of Pakistan," had been consumed by a violent Taliban uprising and a tough government response that left 1,500 dead and sent 200,000 citizens fleeing. Under the terms of the agreement, the rebellion would end, the military would gradually withdraw, sharia law would be imposed, and the government would have a prisoner exchange. At least a dozen suspected Taliban have already been released.

Skeptics worried that the deal amounted to no more than a capitulation to militants; the Pakistani government insisted it could bring real calm. "There was a vacuum ... in the legal system," Amir Haider Khan Hoti, chief minister of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), told the Washington Post. "The people demanded this and they deserve it." Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi defended the move as a "quick dispensation of justice" and "not any appeasement towards militants."

One month later, it's clear the deal is a disaster. The agreement was signed between Sufi Mohammed's militant group, Tehrik-i-Nifaz-i-Shariat-i-Mohammadi (or TNSM, meaning Movement for the Establishment of the Law of Mohammed), and the government of the NWFP, with the approval of the federal government. The two sides differ in their interpretation of it, and even as sharia courts began operating March 18, disputes over the judges remained. Violence continues, making the term "peace agreement" a misnomer. Worse, the pact has consolidated Taliban influence and set a dangerous precedent for further negotiation.

To be sure, the clamor for sharia was genuine. In the lawless environment, ordinary people readily considered appeasing the Taliban as a means of providing security for them and their families. And having served as the judicial code throughout the 1990s, sharia seemed to offer what the government (which controls no more than 20 percent of the region) never could: quick and fair justice for a community starved for exactly that.

Regrettably however, Pakistan signed the agreement from a position of weakness. The Army was hesitant to undertake another major counterinsurgency operation in Swat when two earlier ones had failed to dislodge the militants from their hide-outs. The secular Awami National Party in power in NWFP also preferred a negotiated settlement. And the population could hardly stomach further military action. Even if the deal meant significant compromises in their quality of life, people thought, peace would represent an improvement.

But the dispute over the deal's terms could be fatal. Sufi Mohammed has refused to accept the present panel of judges presiding over qazi, or sharia, courts. He has announced the formation of his own qazi courts, appointed nominees, and warned all lawyers to stay away. Many lawyers are reported to have fled the region on the threat. Far from compromising, the Taliban do not intend to integrate sharia into the existing judicial and bureaucratic structure. Their aim is nothing less than the transformation of the entire legal and administrative system.

Serious implications follow from the Swat deal. Already, Mullah Fazlullah, the son-in-law of Sufi Mohammed, has become a de facto ruler of the area -- the modern-day equivalent of the wali who ruled Swat until 1969 when the region became a province of Pakistan. Moreover, it will be impossible to prevent the demand for sharia from spreading to other parts of the country.


If that happens, Pakistan could end up operating under two legal systems -- sharia in the west and civil code in the east. It is even possible that militant groups in Punjab will demand the right to impose Islamic law in their own strongholds.

Had the government been able to use the peace deal to secure a foothold in Swat, introducing a strong administrative structure that could provide a reasonable level of governance, the move could have been justified. But the opposite has happened. The militants have outsmarted both the government and the military.

They have consolidated the Taliban's position.

And this is only week four.

Submitted by General Talat Masood (ret) Pakistani Army

Art - "Swat Valley's Creep of the Week"