Pushing Their Luck

For a nation state about to get sanction relief and tons of cash from way back unfrozen, Persia's Preacher Command of Iran sure is acting cray cray...

Remember “snapback?” That was supposed to be the enforcement mechanism for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a.k.a. the Iran nuclear deal. If Iran cheated, the U.S. would re-impose sanctions. Administration spokespeople spent the summer assuring anyone who would listen that the mechanism for punishing Iranian violations would be sure, swift, and painful.

But while “snapback” remains a theoretical possibility, it depends on the willingness of the U.S. government to risk a showdown with Tehran. At the moment — and for the next year — it is plain that this administration will not under any circumstances risk such a confrontation, no matter what Iran does.

An Iranian state-sanctioned mob ransacks and burns the Saudi embassy in Tehran. What does the U.S. do? The State Department issues a statement condemning Saudi Arabia for executing 47 prisoners including the Shiite preacher Nimr al-Nimr, whose death “risks exacerbating sectarian tensions at a time when they urgently need to be reduced.” Yes, Nimr’s execution was maybe over the top, but so too was the invasion of the Saudi embassy — a tactic that the Iranian regime has long used to attack countries it dislikes.

Why isn’t the U.S. leading the charge for an international condemnation of Iran?

Perhaps for the same reason that the U.S. withdrew its plan to impose sanctions on Iran for two missile tests in recent months that were conducted in violation of United Nations sanctions. The Iranian regime threatened that these sanctions could unravel the nuclear deal and would only cause Iran to accelerate its (illegal) missile program. So the  administration immediately and cravenly backed off.

Just a few days earlier the same thing happened when Iran complained about new legislation that would mandate visas to enter the United States for anyone who had visited Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Syria or other high-risk countries since 2011. This was not even legislation aimed at Iran per se, but Iran is worried that it would dissuade some business executives from visiting the Islamic Republic. So Foreign Minister Mohammad Javid Zarif threw a hissy fit, and Secretary of State John Kerry promptly promised to use executive authority to make the issue go away.

What happens when Iranian Revolutionary Guard ships fire rockets within 1,500 yards of the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman in the Persian Gulf? Nothing beyond a mild protest from a low-level American military officer.

And of course there has been no real U.S. pushback against Iran for its support for the Assad regime in Syria which is guilty of crimes against humanity — the kind of crimes that United Nations Ambassador Samantha Power has spent her career denouncing. Nor does the U.S. inflict any kind of cost on Iran for holding five Americans hostage, or for the rather hostile habit that Ayatollah Khameini and other Iranian leaders have of regularly chanting “Death to America.”

Sense a pattern here? Whenever Iran acts up, the U.S. looks the other way.

This is particularly egregious given the fact that Iran has not actually received its sanctions relief yet. Soon — possibly in a matter of weeks — Iran will get access to over $100 billion in frozen oil assets. Until that happens all of the leverage is on the American side. Iran should be on its best behavior until it gets its payoff for signing the nuclear deal. But that’s not the way Tehran sees it. The Iranian regime knows that 44 is so desperate to implement the JCPOA that Iran can get away with murder and not suffer any consequences. So that is precisely what Iran is doing.

This is creating a very dangerous precedent for the future. The devastating loss of American credibility means that a future president, even if he or she is so inclined, will have a hard time restoring our deterrent power and convincing Iran not to secretly pursue its nuclear ambitions.

It also means that the value of American security guarantees continues to erode, which helps to explain why allies such as Saudi Arabia are pushing back against the Iranian threat in their own crude fashion, e.g., by bombing Houthi rebels in Yemen and by executing a Shiite rabble rouser.  

In sum, it means that the Middle East (and indeed the rest of the world) will continue to become more dangerous and more hostile to American interests — hard as that may be to believe.

H Bomb Of Justice

Juche'!

Since way back in the Before Time the world has been magically blessed with 2 Koreas - the yankee part is little more than a starving, slave trading underground rocket factory with an unfree, unfun new clear weaponized nation state attached.

A pinnacle of Juche' may very well be the  H Bomb of Justice...

North Korea announced its test on state media on Wednesday morning.   

“The first H-bomb test was successfully conducted in the DPRK at 10:00 (0130 GMT) on Wednesday,” KCNA, the state-run news agency, reported, using the official name for North Korea.

You can watch the announcement here (in Korean)

Pyongyang dropped hints about a possible nuclear test in the weeks preceding Wednesday’s detonation. Over the weekend, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported the North could be readying for a nuclear-weapons test. The reclusive communist state also reportedly tested a submarine-based ballistic missile last month.

The first reports that North Korea might have a hydrogen bomb also emerged in the waning days of 2015. On December 10, KCNA quoted Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, as describing the country as “a powerful nuclear weapons state ready to detonate a self-reliant A-bomb and H-bomb to reliably defend its sovereignty and the dignity of the nation.” Nuclear experts and the White House publicly expressed doubt about Kim’s hydrogen-bomb claim at the time.

Although there has been no independent confirmation of the test, condemnation has been nearly unanimous. China, North Korea’s main ally, says it did not know anything about the test, adding it “firmly” opposes the move. Similar statements were issued by Russia, the EU, NATO, the White House’s National Security Council, and the UN Security Council.

Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority

Great Satan's Navy unleashed a spirited PDF'ing bit about ensuring America has the brain power will power and fire power to keep way ahead of rapidly changing threats from China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and global terrorists, control freaks and general purpose jerks.

"A Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority" (PdF)

Russia and China had a growing arsenal of high-end weapons, many of which were focused on American vulnerabilities. Indeed, both cats are also engaging in "coercion and competition below the traditional thresholds of high-end conflict," while exploiting "the weakness of accepted norms in space, cyber and the electromagnetic spectrum."

Here's a few money shots:

I. Maintain and modernize the undersea leg of the strategic deterrent triad. This is foundational to our survival as a nation.

II. In partnership with the Marine Corps, develop concepts and capabilities to provide more options to national leaders, from non-conflict competition to high-end combat at sea. Operations short of conflict should be designed to contain and control escalation on terms favorable to the U.S. Combat at sea must address “blue-water” scenarios far from land and power projection ashore in a highly “informationalized” and contested environment. 

 All scenarios must address the threat of long-range precision strike. Test and refine concepts through focused wargaming, modeling, and simulations. Validate these concepts through fleet exercises, unit training and certification.

III. Further advance and ingrain information warfare. Expand the Electromagnetic Maneuver Warfare concept to encompass all of information warfare, to include space and cyberspace.

IV. To better meet today’s force demands, explore alternative fleet designs, including kinetic and non-kinetic payloads and both manned and unmanned systems. This effort will include exploring new naval platforms and formations – again in a highly “informationalized” environment – to meet combatant commander needs.

V. Examine the organization of United States Fleet Forces Command, Commander Pacific Fleet and their subordinate commands to better support clearly defining operational and warfighting demands and then to generate ready forces to meet those demands.

VI. Examine OPNAV organization to rationalize our headquarters in support of warfighting requirements.

"Divine Vengence"

Holy Shi Ite! (Literally)

The latest shiz in the forever Sunni Shia Schism

"Without a doubt, the unlawfully shed blood of this innocent martyr will have a rapid effect and the divine vengeance will befall Saudi politicians.”

That's how Persia's Supreme Leader put it after Whahabbia Arabia executed several shia cats and a semi famous Shia cleric.

As if by magic, Iraians and shia appeared to attack Saudi embassies through out the region.

Could it escalate?

Dang scraight.

The Shia crescent is very real - and like all crescents - it also has two, uh, 'horns'.

The northern horn - from Iran through Iraq, Syria Lebanon to the Med sea. The southern horn goes like from Iran through several Gulf States to Yemen - and this is the kicker - the Eastern Province - the Shia rich oil bearing regions of Saudiland.

Eastern Province, also called al-Hasa, is home to the kingdom's oil wealth and has been an integral part of Saudi Arabia since before World War I. A separate Shiite state would pose an existential threat to the kingdom and its ally Bahrain, where Saudi troops have been shoring up the Sunni-minority monarchy since the eruption of the Arab Spring in 2011.

The 55-year-old Nimr was educated in Iran and Syria before returning to the kingdom in 1994, becoming an outspoken opponent of the crown prince's father, Prince Nayef. His biggest sin in the Saudis' view was advocating the secession of Eastern Province to form a majority-Shiite state.

As one of 44's Legacy thing issues, rapproachment with Iran has tons of side effects (and defects)

In short, by subordinating Saudi Arabia’s concerns to his legacy project with Iran, 44 has eviscerated America’s tempering influence against Saudi sectarian paranoia. And by executing Nimr al-Nimr, Saudi Arabia has deliberately attacked the Iranian revolutionaries in a highly emotive way. The Saudis know the Iranians will retaliate, but they’re so concerned about showing resolve to Iran that such concerns have been overwhelmed.

Khamenei’s threat to Saudi politicians deserves special scrutiny, because we cannot assume the danger is limited to Saudi Arabia. After all, in 2011, Iranian leadership ordered the assassination of Adel al-Jubeir, who was then the Saudi ambassador to the U.S.

 

 That Iran faced no meaningful consequences for the 2011 bomb plot — an act of war on America — also fuels the threat.
 

China's Second Carrier

Liaoning!

Collectivist China is smoothly sailing to finish up her second aircraft carrier!

The carrier will be China’s second, but the first to be indigenously-built. China’s current aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was Russian-made and purchased from Ukraine. The Liaoning was totally refitted by Beijing and commissioned in 2012.  

This isn’t the first we’ve heard of China’s second aircraft carrier, but it’s the first time the Defense Ministry has official confirmed the project. Defense Ministry spokesperson Yang Yujun told the press that “relevant authority started the research and development of China’s second aircraft carrier, which is currently under independent design and construction.” He emphasized that the new carrier is home-grown — “designed independently by China.”

Earlier this fall, IHS Jane’s 360 carried photographs that appeared to show the carrier under construction at the Dalian shipyard. Back in March, Chinese media ran quotes from Chinese admirals about the new aircraft carrier – including news on the development of an electromagnetic launch system.

According to Yang, however, fighter jets on the new carrier will use a ski-jump to take off. The carrier will serve as a base for J-15 fighters (already in use on the Liaoning), Yang said, as well as “other ship-based aircraft” (likely to eventually include the J-31, a fifth-generation fighter currently under development). Yang added that the new carrier “will have new improvements in many aspects” compared to the Liaoning, but did not elaborate.

Yang said the new carrier will have a displacement of 50,000 tonnes, around the size of the Liaoning (and much smaller than U.S. Nimitz-class carriers, which displace over 100,000 tonnes). The size fits with previous estimates made by IHS Jane’s based on satellite imagery of the presumed carrier under construction at Dalian. The new carrier will be conventionally powered rather than nuclear powered, according to Yang. He declined to give an estimated timetable for the completion.

China’s current carrier, the Liaoning, is widely believed to be mainly for training purposes, allowing the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to learn the ropes of operating an aircraft carrier. The second carrier is expected to go a step beyond that – taking the training wheels off, so to speak, and expanding the scope of possible missions.

According to Kanwa Defense Review, there’s a good chance that the next carrier will be based at a new facility on Hainan Island, near the South China Sea, rather than at Dalian. Ultimately, Chinese military sources have suggested the country should have at least three aircraft carriers active in its navy.

As Andrew Scobell, Michael McMahon, and Cortez A. Cooper noted in an essay for the Naval War College Review, China’s own advances in missile technology – so-called “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missiles — have caused some to declare the aircraft carrier obsolete. Yet Beijing is still investing massive amounts of time and capital to develop carrier capabilities for itself. That’s partially due to nationalism, as aircraft carriers are viewed as a global status symbol on par with nuclear weapons and space exploration capabilities. But the “decisive driver” of the program, according to Scobell et al, is Beijing’s strategic vision of a blue-water navy that can operate far beyond the first and second island chains.

Indeed, in its recent white paper detailing “China’s Military Strategy,” Beijing emphasized a global mission for its military, where “the armed forces will actively participate in both regional and international security cooperation and effectively secure China’s overseas interests.” For the PLAN in particular, that means a changing role, from a focus on defending the near seas to developing the ability to “protect the security of strategic SLOCs [sea lines of communication] and overseas interests, and participate in international maritime cooperation.” As a power projection tool, China’s second aircraft carrier will play a key role in those new missions.

WoW!!

WoW - the Watchers Council- it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - started online in 1912 by Sirs Jacky Fisher and Winston Churchill themselves - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Thusly sans further adieu (or a don"t)

Council Winners

• *First place with 2 2/3 votes!–The Noisy Room – In From The Cold And Out Again… How The CIA Was Duped And Their Double Agent Failure
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes –Bookworm Room – Our Constitution: Now More Than Ever
• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes –Joshuapundit–Muslim Judge In Brooklyn Swears In Using Qu’ran – And Why It’s A Problem
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes –Nice Deb – The State Department Touts “Pivotal Foreign Policy Moments”
• Third place *t* with 1 1/3 votes –The Independent Sentinel – Hillary’s Worst Scandal Isn’t Over Emails; It’s Why She MUST Go to JAIL!
• Fourth place with 1 vote –Maggie’s Notebook – ISIS Video: We Haunt Minds of Your Soldiers, Sow Fear in Their Hearts –– Send Them to Hell with 50 Cent Bullets
• Fifth place with 2/3 vote –The Right Planet – I’m Disappointed … Seriously
• Sixth place with 1/3 vote –The Razor – Why a Libertarian Supports Socialized Medicine

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 2 votes!–Powerline – Obama’s disgraceful Hanukkah party [Updated] submitted by Joshuapundit
• Second place with 1 2/3 votes –The Other McCain – What ‘Rape Culture’ Really Means: Your Male Heterosexuality Is Problematic submitted by The Watcher
• Third place with 1 1/3 votes –Eugene Rogan/The Cairo Review – A Century After Sykes-Picot submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote –Daniel GreenField/ FrontPage mag –Muslim Immigration Is Exactly What ISIS Wants submitted by The Noisy Room
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote –Gavin McInnes/Taki’s Magazine –Seeing the World Through Third World Eyes submitted by The Razor
• Fourth place *t* with 1 vote –Flopping Aces –Liberals: Schlonged is bad, but Teabagging OK submitted by VA Right!
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –Mike Biezen/Daily Wire–The Most Comprehensive Assault On ‘Global Warming’ Eversubmitted by Bookworm Room
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –Kenneth Lipp/The Daily Beast –The Lie That Turned Mothers Into Murderers submitted by Nice Deb
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –Michael Totten/The Tower – Samantha, Powerless: Obama’s Problem from Hell in Syria submitted by The Watcher
• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote –Joel Kotkin –Seeing the West as worse submitted by The Watcher

See you next week!

With Friends Like These...

The Ottomans.

Kinda like a one nation state distribution centre for grief, heartache and self inflicted problems.

 Turkey is a growing threat to Western interests and values. Ankara never has been a true friend of the West. Turkey was a useful ally during the Cold War, though it always seemed readier to go to war with Greece than the Soviet Union. In those years Turkey was only vaguely democratic.

Erdogan also is moving Turkey in a more Islamist direction. Although no one expects him to turn his nation into another Saudi Arabia, he is doing more than end what had been strict secularism. Worse, his government has aided the Islamic State. Despite agreeing to assist Washington, the Erdogan government appears to have played the U.S., directing most of Turkey’s fire against America’s Kurdish allies.

Now, aside from enabling ISIS/ISIL/IS with under the table oil deals and recruiting routes comes a Kurdish tale of outright outrageous action:

Actually allowing ISIS to train fighters on Turkish turf