Friday, April 25, 2008

Recognition

Currently in the ME, there has been little recog of the new Iraqi state. Unneighborly neighbors ignore and diss Iraq like she's the red headed step child of the region - an illegit sister built by another mister like Great Satan or Great Britain.

Despite forgiving tons of debt, many in the Gulf are keeping Iraq at arms length. Fair enough - not so long ago a despotic militant Iraq trashed several neighbors and left their turf as blasted and barren as the moon.

Maria Appakova of Russia's GRU shares a bit about the Third Expanded Ministerial Conference of the Neighboring Countries of Iraq in Kuwait City on April 22

The damage done to many of them by the Saddam Hussein regime was too great
to forget easily, even though Iraq is supposedly ruled by a different gov
now. This is clearly evidenced by the final joint declaration passed by the
Kuwait conference. A full five years after the toppling of Saddam's regime, the
participants condemned the crimes of the former regime against the peoples of
Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, although it would seem they should have turned a clean
page by now.

On the one hand, they have their reasons to be wary of violence in Iraq. Some of
those countries' earlier attempts to reopen embassies in Baghdad ended in
disaster - in August 2003, 17 were killed in an attack on Jordan's mission. In
2005, several Algerian and Egyptian diplomats were kidnapped and killed. But,
other countries have incurred casualties, too. The killing of Russian Embassy
workers in 2006 did not lead to a closure of the mission.

But this is only part of the explanation. After all Iran, one of the victim
nations mentioned in the declaration, is actively developing contacts with
Baghdad, not letting the old grudge get in the way of new relations

And here we see the true cause for the reluctance of others.

The Sunni-led governments in Iraq's Arab neighbors are wary of getting too
friendly with the new Shiite-dominated Iraq government tilted toward Iran, and
writing off its debts.

Moreover, a restored and powerful Iraq would put up serious competition
to its neighbors on the oil market; a stable Iraq is almost certain to bring
down global oil prices.

Therefore, while for the West, Russia, and most Asian nations a stabilized
Iraq means billion-dollar contracts and geo-strategic advantages, its Arab
neighbors don't really know what to expect. They have not yet developed a policy
toward Iraq that would enable them to gain without having to pay too much for
it.

The reconciliation between Iraq and the Arab countries is progressing, albeit
slowly. It would be better if they translated words into action, and writing off
Iraq's debts and reopening embassies would be eloquent examples of that.

11 comments:

Findalis said...

The trouble is 2 fold.

1) They don't think the Iraqi nation will last if American troops pull out.

2) They are afraid that the violence and civil war going on in Iraq will spill into their lands.

Iran is doing a great job keeping up the scare amongst the Persian Gulf States. They are afraid of Iranian insurgency in their nations, and so to appease them they kowtow to Iran's wishes.

I just wish one of these guys would show some balls and stand up to the bully Iran.

Nikki said...

Where is Bono and the rest of the "debt" relief celeb's? :)N

Karen said...

Yep. A Kabuki dance, to be sure. It's a fact if President Obama or Clinton yanks us out too quickly it's curtains for them and Iran moves into the vacuum. We really can't blame them for moving slowly.

Donald Douglas said...

Interesting post, Courtney!

Perhaps there's some anti-Americanism in the resistance to the new Iraq as well.

Semaj Mahgih said...

Courtney - you're an unstoppable force and the pic's nice too.

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Findalis - that is correct. Dr Ken Pollack shares in his fully crunk Persia Puzzle that the Mullahs consider themselves experts on Great Satan and her election cycles.

Perhaps the recent ops in Basra and Sadr City show Great Satan is pre empting any Persian chicanery ala 'October Surprise"

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Nikki - true that - the only celeb that really got vocal about a generational commitment was Angelina Jolie. You'd think folks like Bono would champion free choice. Coudn't hurt. Maybe even sell more U2 CD's in Iraq

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Donald, Perhaps - OTOH it's a sure bet that opposers of Great Satan are also fans of intolerance and really want to kill a tiny baby democracy in it's crib

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Semaj - Well, I ain't all that - but if you insist - OK!

I thought the pic was cool - like a little sissy wanting some attention from her big sister. The jeans rep being considered the illigit daughter of Great Satan

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Karen - that is spot on. If the 'weak horsey - strong horsey' theory is really la raison de compos in that part of the world then fence sitting is understandable. Just like making the commitment to hang tuff and act out when Great Satan's investment in treasure and precious blood is under threat.

Vigilante said...

Who can answer my question about diplomatic recognition of Baghdad Government? How many different countries have existing embassies in Baghdad? How many countries extend diplomatic recognition to Maliki's Government of the Green Zone (GOGZ)?
I want an authoritative answer and I will credit and link whatever site that gives it to me.