Thursday, March 19, 2009

Little Satan Goes Ballistic

At a recent lo down ho down, populated by all the populars, an event occurred.

Essentially (and btw - j'ever notice that guys' attention spans seem only about as long as whatever object they are threatened with?) A certain chauffeur began eyeing a certain element that was way too tall and even worse - very pretty - at the expense of his own arm candy.

Not for long!

Said chauffeur's consort totally freaked and caused a scene.

Tired of the games, nonprofit jawflapping and sincere blocs chock full of insincerity she finally said the heck with it and let loose.

She went ballistic.

In a way this event - true story - could be applied to the recent study unleashed by Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Provocatively entitled "Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities " this hefty (114 pages PDF) details naughty details like "Strike Package" did and includes Little Satan's magical mythical missile cadre.

Put together by the indomitable Dr Abdullah Toukan this not so brief brief includes:

Little Satan's Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missiles

Iran Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missiles Program
• Timeline when Iran produces it’s first Nuclear Weapon
• Options to deal with Iran’s Nuclear Program within the Time Frame

Iran Nuclear Targets
• Mission Planning Payloads
• Little Satan's Strike Force Required
• Iran Missile Sites

Little Satan's Air Force: Aircraft Mission Capabilities (which includes the following sexyful see thru bit)

"Mission Analysis:

Approximate range to the furthest target Esfahan is some 1,110 nmi. When approaching the 550 nmi range, the F-15Es and F-16Is need to refuel on the way to Iran and on the way back.

Refueling can be done in three ways:

Refueling from KC-135A and KC-10 tankers.
Buddy Refueling between F-15Es and F-16Is (Whoa!)
A temporary landing strip, along the Syrian, Turkish and Northern Iraq region, where aircraft refueling is available.

The total maximum strike package was around 80 aircraft, all the 25 F-15I in the Little Satan's Inventory and 55 F-16I/C. The F-15E would then need 5 to 6 KC-130s to refuel from, and the F-16Is would require 6 to 7 KC-130."

Also included are Syrian and Iranian Air Force capabilities, inventory and au currant Order of Battle - plus anti aircraft batteries of missiles and artillery.

The dreaded Russian Commonwealth super future Air Defense system - the S 300 is now a done deal with Persia - any Air Force quickies would need to be done before their delivery and deployment make an airstrike a less than sure thing.

This is where Little Satan's magical mythical ballistic projectiles come into the pic:

Little Satan's National Security Doctrine:

"This is based on the perception that Arab countries are determined to destroy Israel; that Israel has no reliable international allies and must take care of itself; there is an asymmetrical balance of resources versus the Arab Countries in Demography, Geography, Economic Resources, Structure of Armed Forces in terms of man power.

Operational Military Doctrine:

"That Israel must have the capability to deter any possible Arab attack, and if deterrence fails then Israel must strive for an early war termination if war breaks out. That any war with the Arab countries would have to be short and decisive.

"That the war must quickly be carried into and fought on Arab territory giving rise to a rapid offensive and high degree of mobility to sustain continuous forward movement.

Little Satan's Nuclear Doctrine

"A nuclear capability is needed to deter threats to Israel‘s existence. The possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by any Arab or non-Arab Muslim State in the region is considered as a direct existential threat to Israel. Israel should prevent all States in the Middle East Region from developing a nuclear program that it sees as a threat, or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. Israel has deliberately maintained a nuclear policy ambiguity about it‘s own nuclear weapons program.

The purpose of the nuclear ambiguity policy was based on the belief that it had introduced an effective ―deterrence through uncertainty. Arab states were never sure that Israel would use a nuclear weapon in retaliation to it‘s survival in the event of a major war, or if any of the Arab states try to acquire a nuclear capability.

Little Satan's nuclear ambiguity policy has been stated by a number of Little Satan cats in the past leaders in such statements as:

― Little Satan will not be the first to use nuclear weapons and
― Little Satan will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East

The Arab States‘ of course view that such ambiguity nuclear doctrines can never be considered binding in case of war.

Little Satan has never officially admitted that it possesses Nuclear Weapons, and is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"Many see the present status of Israel as an ―Undeclared Nuclear Weapon State, at the same time it has become to be recognized as possessing a very sophisticated arsenal of nuclear weapons."

Little Satan's missile family - the 'Jericho' I and II have a limit of about 500 and 1500 kilometers respectively.

Niether could hit any targets in Persia.

Unless there is a Jericho III.

"There are reports that Israel is developing a Jericho III missile, based on a booster it developed with South Africa in the 1980s. Jane‘s estimated that the missile has a range of up to 5,000 kilometers and a 1,000-kilogram warhead. This
estimate is based largely on a declassified Defense Intelligence Agency estimate of the launch capability of the Shavit booster that Israel tested on September 19, 1988."

42 Jericho III's armed with a 750 kg Warhead would be required.

Any strike by Little Satan against the mullahs and their precious nuke power factories would unleash pure heck.

"Immediate retaliation using its ballistic missiles on Israel. Multiple launches of
Shahab-3 including the possibility of CBR warheads against Tel Aviv, Israeli military and civilian centers, and Israeli suspected nuclear weapons sites

Using proxy groups such as Hezbollah or Hamas to attack Israel proper with suicide bombings, covert CBR attacks, and rocket attacks from southern Lebanon."

And that's just for starters -

"Regional Security

Iran would withdraw from the NPT based on the argument that it needs to acquire
nuclear weapons to deter any further aggression by Israel and the U.S.

Destabilizing Iraq through the Shia against US occupation, further arming insurgency groups when possible.

Support and upgrade Taliban capabilities in Afghanistan.

Increase the threat of asymmetric attacks against American interests and allies in the region, especially against countries that host the US military such as Qatar and Bahrain.

Target U.S. and Western shipping in the Gulf, and possibly attempt to interrupt the flow of oil through the Gulf."

While all this certainly sounds scary - and it is - it may actually make more sense to launch a far larger ambitious assault aerially againt the entire regime in Iran. Tough to see how Iran could be any more PO'd than the above.

After all, Great Satan "would certainly be perceived as being a part of the conspiracy and having assisted and given Israel the green light, whether it did or had no part in it whatsoever."

So - Little Satan - and/or Great Satan have a tiny tiny window to act out in.

One end of the window is Iran's upcoming elections - both Madame Sec and Especial Envoy Dennis Ross admit there is little point in non profit jawflapping til then.

The other end of the closure is delivery and deployment of the S300 AAD System with all it's accoutrements.

And then there is the cat the Persians call "Mr Iran"

Little Satan may just say the heck with it and let loose.

She may just go ballistic.

Art - "Little Satan Goes Ballistic" by Kerank


Skunkfeathers said...

What with Great Satan's new regime pouring hundreds of millions in "aid" that is likely winding up in the hands of Hamas, I reckon Israel's gotta do what they've gotta do.

If they decide they need to kick ass, few can do it like the Israelis.