Tuesday, May 11, 2010

COIN World

By the year 2013 the world will be a very crunk and disorderly place:

CENTCOM will be the pièce de résistance - a counter insurgency war fought in Iraq betwixt Whabbi Arabia, Theocratic New Clear Iran and Great Satan

Counter insurgency ops will be off the hook in AFPAK, particularly the Land of the Pure - as the Pakistani Taliban's New Guard launches a nationwide insurrection to take control and forcibly force time travelling on the fastest growing new clear arsenal on the planet -- a nuked up semi nation state into the medieval age:

"...a failed state, ripe with civil war, bloodshed, inter-provincial rivalries and a struggle for control of its nuclear weapons and its complete Talibanization..."

Funded by the dreaded pop pop poppy fields in Afghanistan (that funnily enough do not seem to merit attention as a premier enemy enabler), balkanized resistance movements fracture along tribal lines in Baluchistan.

Palestine's near birth/death/life experience will absorb energies, resources and troops to keep a lid on events spilling into Egypt, even as up armored Hiz'B'Allah and Revo Guard proxies approximate siezing total control in Lebanon -- aided and abetted by the tiny tiny Allawite regime in Basharopolis -- against Great Satan's Lebanese contingent of Teufel Hunden.

Yemen will become the 2010 version of North Waziristan -- victimized by al Qaeda like terror groups and unhealthy doses of Iranian and Saudi minion wars.

Somalia and Sudan fight civil wars, hooked up with atrocities on a nigh Hitlerian scale.

Instability will spread far beyond Great Satan's CENTCOM.

Failed states - like Mexico and Arizona will be chock full of drug regimes, gangster statelets and traditional non state actor outers.

Welcome to COIN World.

Pic - "Successful Insurgencies and Counterinsurgencies"


ItinerantCornishman said...

Cracking. Thanks for the link to that RAND report. John Mackinlay knows his stuff...