Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Blockade Runners

Aside from gaining foreign martyrs for an event that could have been avoided, the Strip's rocket rich rejectionist regime has gained vital PR destined to blow off the ballot box for another year and Palestine Little Satan diplomacy as well

"...In the short term, Hamas will benefit politically from its role as a supporter of the flotilla, its public calls for Israel to not interfere with the effort to break the blockade, and the burnishing of its fading "resistance" credentials. Ismail Haniyah set up the situation as a win-win for Hamas in his May 29 speech declaring that it was a victory if the flotilla got through or if Israel stopped it. The bloody outcome only increased the size of the victory for Hamas.

"...Previously, Hamas had launched a broad media campaign to focus attention on the flotilla and warn of the possibility of an Israeli action against it. Since the incident, Hamas media organs have given extensive coverage to it, prominently depicting the role and actions of Hamas officials. Hamas's public role in the events makes the Palestinian Authority (PA) look bad by comparison.

"...For the most part, Hamas has considerably trailed the PA in support among Palestinians, so Hamas is hoping the incident will give it at least a temporary boost. It should be pointed out that even the sympathy boost that Hamas garnered after the 2008-2009 Gaza war evaporated in just two months.

"...The Gaza flotilla interdiction incident cannot be seen as other than a major victory for Hamas. The outcome, the images, and the reflexive condemnation of the action by much of the world are all of direct benefit to Hamas and to the detriment of its opponents -- especially Israel, but the PA as well. Hamas will see immediate political gains as well as potential long-term practical benefits for its rule in Gaza.

Turkey's role in all this may be a power play of sorts

"...For the first time in its history, Ankara has chosen sides in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, demanding that Israel take steps to ease the blockade of Gaza or risk unspecified "consequences." Well before the recent crisis, the Turks had positioned themselves as thinly veiled advocates for Hamas, which has long been on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist organizations

"...This parallel is rather odd. Turkey's Islamists always sought to process their grievances peacefully, while the Islamic Resistance Movement -- Hamas's actual name -- has a history of violence. Ankara's warm embrace of Hamas has not only angered the Israelis, but other U.S. regional allies including Egypt, the Palestinian Authority, and Saudi Arabia.

"...Turkey asserting itself more than in the Middle East, where it has gone from a tepid observer to an influential player in eight short years. In the abstract, Washington and Ankara do share the same goals: peace between Israel and the Palestinians; a stable, unified Iraq; an Iran without nuclear weapons; stability in Afghanistan; and a Western-oriented Syria.

"...When you get down to details, however, Washington and Ankara are on the opposite ends of virtually all these issues.

Pic "Free Gaza? Defeat HAMAS - bullets or ballots"


J. said...

Still do not understand your fixation (or anyone's fixation) on Turkey as a proponent of violence against Israel. If you want some serious analysis, consider that Turkey has for years been a stalwart supporter of US military, all through the Cold War. Turkey kept quiet about the Middle East events because it has for years wanted to be a member of NATO/EU and to capitalize on business opportunities.

What changed was when the US govt dragged Turkey into the fiasco known as Opn Iraqi Freedom, when US actions forced Turkey to be a more active member (since it seemed as if the EU was never going to invite Turkey in anyway, as the apostate Muslim country that it was). Turkey still has the same goals as the US in the Middle East, but I think you're now seeing some frustration from that govt watching the inept efforts of the Bush administration for eight years.

And although you don't want to face it, Israel's policy of "pound the crap out of any opposition" - while a favorite for neocons - really doesn't win friends and influence enemies like you'd think.

commoncents said...

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Common Cents

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