Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Indo Sino Warcraft

Collusive Threat!

GsGf's Indo Asian collective cats fire up an interesting bit about the ever popular semi phantasy Indo - Sino conflict
Chinese officials have publicly asserted Chinese claims to the entire Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which some Chinese military advisors and strategists refer to as "Southern Tibet." Chinese forces have periodically engaged in small-scale cross-border encroachments, destroying Indian military bunkers and patrol bases in Ladakh and Sikkim.

At the same time, China has been systematically constructing road and rail networks across the Tibetan plateau in ways that tilt the balance of forces along the contested frontier in China's favor; India has responded with infrastructure projects of its own, including roads and air fields, to enable military reinforcement of its border regions, but has failed to keep pace with its northern neighbor.

5 Possibilities for an Indo Sino Conflict emerge

China instigated, Pakistan instigated, Chinese hyena act, Pakistan’s hyena act and lastly a planned twin strike. Since China can act on its own, it does not need Pakistani collusion. In fact it may find such collusion escalatory since it would place India in a worse position, from which India would only want to come out fighting. 

On the other hand, Pakistan can do with Chinese support. Yet, China would not want to be physically drawn in though it could use the transport corridors being developed in the Gilgit-Baltistan region to send in logistic support.

In a China-led case, a twin threat could be in case of Chinese designs to the east. These could be grandiose in terms of seizing limited territory such as Tawang or the whole of Arunachal, or to ‘teach India a lesson’. This may entail tying India down in the western sector by having Pakistan make diversionary moves in Siachen or Kargil. This could result in 14 Corps based in Ladakh being forced to look both ways. The possibility of Chinese participation with movement through the Gilgit axis is possible, but the logistics and possibility of Indian air interdiction makes this unviable.

A Pakistan-led case is difficult to visualize since China would not like the ‘tail to wag the dog’. China could nevertheless participate in such an adventure if it were to set India back and restrict India’s strategic space to South Asia. Dual use formations that could tilt the balance in India’s favour would then not be available, making for greater symmetry with Pakistan.

A ‘hyena act’ by Pakistan is easier to visualize than by China since China is more likely to be able to place India at a military disadvantage than Pakistan. In such a case, with India militarily distracted in an engagement with China, Pakistan could try and gain psychological ascendance, remove vulnerabilities through military action or recreate proxy war conditions

Pic - "Cold Start doctrine marks a break with the fundamentally defensive military doctrines that India has employed since gaining independence in 1947."


Raedwulf said...

India is also working hard to develop a true blue water navy which China may view as a threat to the oil life line China needs through the Indian Ocean. Distracting India via a proxy Pakistan might serve China's economic interests in the Indian Ocean.