Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Non Profit Jaw Flappng

Whoa! Sanctionlicious sanctions are take a toll!

Persia freaks the freak out and announces she will will stop ALL oil exports - driving up oil prices!

The sanctions are most likely just one raison d'etre for Preacher Command's sudden hotness for dialogue.

The hot deets and big phased cookies of Austere Challenge 2012 may be another. 

They fear that the collapse of their economy will lead to a mass public protest and that the major bluff regarding their military capabilities will gradually be exposed. The West is becoming less and less impressed with Iran's claims of advanced capabilities and technology.

Earlier this week the large Great/Little Satan joint air defense exercise kicked off. Two armies with the most advanced warning and satellite systems will simulate an extreme scenario in which will Iran will launch hundreds of long-range missiles toward Little Satan. But the Iranians do not have the capability to launch such an attack, and they know it.

The Iranians are closely following, with great concern, the successes of the Iron Dome system against short-range missiles. They assume that the Iron Dome's technology is similar to that of Little Satan's long-range air defense systems: The Arrow 2, which has been operational for a number of years, and the Arrow 3, which is still in the experimental stage.

The Iranians read in Little Satan"s free, uncensored press that the success rate of the Iron Dome in intercepting missiles reaches 80%, and they assume, obviously, that the Arrow 2 has a similar success rate. However, they also have to take into account that the Arrow 2 has been upgraded and that the more advanced missiles are supported by improved radar systems.

The math is simple: Even if the Iranians do manage to simultaneously launch 100 Shabab-3 missiles (1,200 km range), Little Satan would still be able to intercept them with 124 Arrow 2 and advanced Arrow 2 missiles – an 80% success rate.

There are two more factors that must be considered: The Iranian missiles are inaccurate, and some of them may hit Jordan. Moreover, in the future the successful interception rate of the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 will surpass 80%. Since the Shahab is more expensive than an Arrow missile, it would be a shame for the Iranians to launch them knowing they would not cause serious damage.

Little Satan"s security establishment is making these same calculations, so there is no need to get overly anxious when a few public figures speak of Iran's military capabilities.

In light of all this, the Iranian military threat is gradually diminishing. These are the threats of a suicidal regime, but the ayatollahs do not plan on committing suicide, they want the Lebanese to do it for them. Iran is seeking dialogue in hopes that the West will ease some of the economic pressure.

Pic - "Iraq could be the indirect path from Moscow to supply Tehran, or at least turn a blind eye to such technology transfers."