Thursday, August 29, 2013

9 Iron

At the rate chiz is unfolding - looks like Great Satan will be starting in on Syria any day now. Hopefully 44 will go big - taking on creepy time traveling intolerant militias as well as the highest levels of the regime. Tho, to be fair to his Bystander in Chief meme, he may not.

Anywrought, czech the 9 Iron Pillars of what doing Syria will mean...

First, the Syrian government may not be winning. Syrian soldiers and militia are not capable of seizing urban redoubts. If they had the capability to do so, they would not have used chemical weapons. This suggests neither side can sustain an offensive against the other side’s cities, leading to an eventual division of the country.

Second, Syria would not have used chemicals had they respected the resolve of our president when he declared a “red line.” 44’s reputation for leadership — now severely degraded — will be somewhat restored if the strikes are strategically meaningful.

Third, a modest strategy is to prevent any Syrian aircraft from flying and to strike airfields routinely to prevent air resupply from Iran or Russia (plus of course providing weapons and training to selected rebel groups).

Fourth, we should not be more concerned about the terrorists in Syria than we are about terrorists in Lebanon, Pakistan, Somalia, or Yemen. The rewards of deposing the Assad government — cleaving Iran from a client state in the Middle East and diminishing Hezbollah — outweigh the risks of gradual takeover in Syria by Taliban types with no funding and no passports.

Fifth, the incentive among all terrorists for mass murder increases if the Syrian use of chemicals goes without severe punishment. 44 should state the names of those Syrians implicated, a list from Assad on down, and declare they are war criminals and will be hunted down. This act is sure to affect the calculations of all senior officers not (yet) on that list.

Sixth, Iran remains the first-order threat. Its development of a nuclear weapon will cement the growing view of America as feckless. That perception will cause a regional geopolitical paroxysm and a proliferation of nuclear-armed, unstable states. We must view what we do or do not do in Syria with a careful eye on how that affects Iran’s resolve.

Seventh, the credibility of the General Dempsey has diminished. He has asserted that hundreds of ships were needed to strike Syria. Whether he was acting on his own or as the White House messenger in relaying an extreme statement to justify inaction, he has lost face in the region and among the other members of the Joint Chiefs.

Eighth, as true warriors and in defense of their budget, the Air Force will want to be included in the strikes – strategically, the successful employment of American aircraft would rightly concern Iran.

Ninth, Navy’s image will be enhanced by strikes, especially if only four destroyers deliver a hard blow. Iran will be left to ponder its vulnerability.

Pic - "35 places in Syria you don't wanna be for the next few days"


sykes.1 said...

First, Assad has no motivation to use chemical weapons, but the jihadis do. It is more likely that the attack was a false flag operation conducted by the jihadis.

Second, large parts of the Middle East, like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel are within range of Syria's missiles and artillery. This includes American personnel at Incirlik, Turkey, and the British bases in Cyprus. Any attack on Syria would likely lead to retaliatory strikes on these targets. If Assad is going to be overthrown (and probably murdered), he has no reason to stand down.

Third, and most importantly, Iran has publicaly stated
that they will attack Israel if the US attacks Syria. Is this a bluff? Do you want to be on it? Saudi Arabia would also be a choice target for Iran. Iran can't conquer or destroy Saudi Arabia or Israel but they could disrupt oil shipments from the Persian Gulf.

Finally, Iran could inflict serious damage on the American flotilla based in the Persian Gulf. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that they could sink the carrier stationed (very stupidly) there.

The current situation is similar to the summer of 1914. Lunatic radicals create a crisis, and insane, stupid, corrupt leaders of the major powers orchestrate the slide into world war. WWI destroyed the Austro-Hungarian, German, Ottoman and Russia empires, mortally wounded the British and French empires, gave us German, Italian and Japanese fascism, 80 years of communist terror and WWII. Do you want to bet that the American empire and the Pax Americana would survive a major regional or world war?

Turn the ships around.

Ti Davis said...

"Turn the ships around."

I disagree. The longer this end game is put off will cause more death and destruction.

Let it burn and burn good. Then cast the stones down and bury them so no evidence remains.

Those that survive can build a better world.