"It begins with a single Qassam rocket, one of the thousands of homemade
projectiles fired in recent years by the Islamic radicals of HAMAS from the
Gaza Strip into southern Israel.The rockets have made life nightmarish for many Israelis but have largely missed their targets. But this one gets "lucky": It smashes into an elementary school, wounding 40 children and killing 15."
"Sound fantastical or too horrific to ponder? Not to Israeli intelligence
analysts it doesn't. The Israeli military recently conducted a round of
large-scale war games based precisely on this scenario.In some rounds, Israel managed to humble Hamas and Hezbollah while shooting down most of the Iranian and Syrian rockets with its own Arrow and Patriot antimissile systems. But other forecasts went far less well: Israel survives but barely, with its cities devastated and countless civilians killed."
Now the cat who paints such a realistic(?) pic is Michael Oren. A very good historian, 2 of his books are def must haves - "Power, Faith, and Fantasy (America in the Middle East 1776 to the Present)" and the essential "6 Days of War - (the Making of the Modern Middle East)."
Dr Oren's prescrip is to point to the 6 Day War. The ME is a lot like it was way back then. And a lot different too.
"A conflict between Israel and Iran might not last six days but six hours,
unleashing shock waves even more seismic than those of 1967."
Raining K'Ssam rockets (40 on Wednesday alone) with no end in sight is totally uncool in a dangerous way. Until recently, HAMAS has been faking it .
Little Satan so far has kept up a relentless stealth campaign as her spy guy military ops rip through the HAMAS terror fanboy groups, instead of unleashing an all out assault to retake Gaza and keep it this time.
All that could change very soon.
It's only one K'Ssam away.
9 comments:
If Israel had any sense, the first kassam would have been the last. There is none of them that should not have been the last.
Israel can have neither peace nor security while Islam exists. There is only one solution to this problem.
Start by getting rid of Olmert & co.
Israel needs Benjamin Netanyahu back in charge, in my opinion. He's one tough hombre, sorely needed.
The IDF is the most moral army on this planet, their restraint is unfathomable, Ben has identified the source of the restraint...
"But other forecasts went far less well: Israel survives but barely, with its cities devastated and countless civilians killed."
That point needs to be circulated widely. That's the reality Israelis have to live with.
Interesting post, Courtney!!
American Power
Hi Ben, Though that scenerio is scary Dr Oren makes the case for a pre emptive preventive strike. Syria's new missiles would prob be first.
Little Satan's move into Gaza in the last 24 may be a 'reverse Kursk.'
It's still to early to tell...
Hi Karen. Yup, BeBe is one tough cat - no doubt. Most likely he won't play and drag this out.
Hi Otto!
True - Little Satan's military has thus far fought a nigh unheard of war - targetting killers and seizing turf top draw them out. Interesting isn't it - that only functional democracies have future, humanitarian war machines.
Hi Donald,
Thanks - I've always like Oren's work and this was a scary one no doubt.
Looks like Little Satan has got the message - by moving into Gaza the day after I wrote this. Maybe I'm psychic?
I view Israel's mini invasion as too little, too lake. Israel lacks the spinal fortitude required. She lacks the required certainty of moral superiority.
If Israel won't usher the Falestinians into Hell and tell the objectors to jump in after them, she won't survive long; her peace will be in the grave.
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