The Indo China War of 2012

"China will launch an attack on India before 2012."

Indian Defense Review fires the first shot!

"India’s chaotic but successful democracy is an eyesore for the authoritarian regime in Beijing. Unlike India, China is handicapped as it lacks the soft power - an essential ingredient to spread influence."

"The stated withdrawal from Iraq by America now allows it to concentrate its military surplus on the single front to successfully execute the mission. This surplus, in combination with other democratic forces, enables America to look deep into resource rich Central Asia, besides containing China’s expansionist ambitions."

"The Chinese leadership wants to rally its population behind the communist rule. As it is, Beijing is already rattled, with its proxy Pakistan, now literally embroiled in a civil war, losing its sheen against India.

"Above all, it is worried over the growing alliance of India with the United States and the West, because the alliance has the potential to create a technologically superior counterpoise. "

"There is no overall cost benefit ratio in integrating Taiwan by force with the mainland, since under the new dispensation in Taipei, the island is ‘behaving’ itself. Also, the American presence around the region is too strong for comfort.

"There is also the factor of Japan to be reckoned.

"Though Beijing is increasing its naval presence in the South China Sea to coerce into submission those opposing its claim on the Sprately Islands, at this point of time in history it will be unwise for recession-hit China to move against the Western interests, including Japan.

"Therefore, the most attractive option is to attack a soft target like India and forcibly occupy its territory in the Northeast. "

Autocratic China responds that:

"The Western powers would not take kindly to a Chinese conflict with India, leaving China rightfully reluctant to use force in any case other than extreme provocation. US forces well deployed in Afghanistan and Pakistan could check any Chinese military action in South Asia.

"And then there is also the nuclear problem: there has never been a war between two nuclear equipped nations, and both sides would have to be extremely cautious in decision-making, giving more room for less violent solutions.

"Further, it is important to realize there is no reason for China to launch a war, against India in particular. Economic development, rather than military achievement, has long been the consensus of value among China’s core leaders and citizens.

"Despite occasional calls to “Reoccupy South Tibet (occupied Chinese territory),” China’s decision-making is always cautious. It is not possible to see a Chinese “incursion” into India, even into Tawang, an Indian-occupied Buddhist holy land over which China argues a resolute sovereignty.

"Last but not least, China’s strategy, even during the 1962 border war with India, has been mainly oriented towards the east, where Taiwan is its core interest, while the recent Xinjiang unrest highlights China’s growing anti-terrorist tasks in the northwest - both issues are more important than the southwest border.

"If China were to be involved in a war within the next three years, as unlikely as that seems, the adversary would hardly be India. The best option, the sole option, open for the Chinese government is to negotiate around the disputed territory.


More than one scenario though:

"An aggressive Indian policy toward China, a "New Forward Policy," may aggravate border disputes and push China to use force despite China’s appeal, as far as possible, for peaceful solutions.

"Consider the 1959-1962 conflict, the only recorded war between China and India in the long history of their civilizations.

"After some slight friction with China in 1959, the Indian army implemented aggressive action known as its Forward Policy.

"The Chinese Army made a limited but successful counterattack in 1962.

"India has started to deploy more troops in the border area, similar to its Forward Policy 50 years ago."

China's latest White Paper painted a difficult pic --


The nightmare for Chinese security planners, based on their reading of China’s predation by foreign powers during the age of imperialism, is of external sponsorship of “splittist” or dissident movements that undermine the cohesion of the Chinese state.


“Domestic security and international security are interwoven and
interactive -- the Motherland faces strategic maneuvers and containment from the outside while having to face disruption and sabotage by separatist and hostile forces from the inside.”


Pic - "Facing manuevers and containment" by CenturyChina