Monday, November 28, 2011

Forecasting the Future of Iran

Velayat‐e faqih!

As best understood - getting all psychic l'futur diplopolititary cuts both ways (Oh, you know it is so - ouch! LOL).

Anywrought - czech out RAND"s hot! pdf thingy thinking out loud about Future Persia and Massive Implicating Implications For Great Satan"s Strategy and Policy

Diplomatic relations betwixt Great Satan and Iran have been, like, froze up frozen since the 1979 Revolution. The current overlaps in Great Satan and Iranian interests make the ongoing bilateral impasse ripe for reassessment, but while the potential to advance relations exists, progress will be measured by the development of several key political, economic, civil society, foreign policy, and national security issues in Iran. 

This study employs an expected utility model to predict how Iranian policy is developing on several of these key issues and explores Great Satan strategy and policy options for influencing their development.

Several hot topictry includes

Mapping Summary of the Supreme Leader’s Influence on Analyzed Policy Issues 
Summary of Iran’s President’s Influence on Analyzed Policy Issues
Summary of the IRGC’s Influence on Analyzed Policy Issues
Exercised or Discussed Policy Options
Religious Overview of Government and Population Demographics of Select Nations

Some prett cool chats und formulae for professional psychic guesstimation and the one for Forecasts and Position Support of the Disposition of Iran’s Next Supreme Leader alone is worth the price of admission.

 The ancient Persian Version of the ancient Deutsch "Führerprinzip" - the autocratical concept of one cat calling all the shots for an entire nation state and all her captive ppls was formalized by the long dead Ayatollah Khomeini way back in the last millennium. 2 schools of cats have been running the place:

In the Now and Future Time, reforming pragmatic reformers really think 'Slamic Republic’s survival means to ease up - way up - on political and social restrictions and making economic expediency a top target over ideology. 


Hard-lining hard liners, led by Supreme Leader au courant, (and sev possible replacement Suprem Leaders) believe caving in on revolutionary ideals could totally queer the mix - like that perestroika stuff did to that old Collectionn of Soviet Collectivist Republics.

 Iran’s next Supreme Leader will likely be drawn from amongst the conservative Ayatollahs. His disposition is likely to be slightly more moderate than that of Khamenei. Ayatollahs Rafsanjani and Shahroudi are currently the stongest candidates, with Shahroudi being favored over Rafsanjani.

Khamenei has significant opportunities to influence the selection of his successor. His support amongst the leading candidates would likely be the deciding factor. Khamenei has not yet nominated a successor; because of either fear of diluting his powers, or because his preferred candidate, his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, currently lacks the necessary religious credentials. 

In absence of Khamenei moving to influence the issue, the Assembly of Experts holds the decisive leverage selecting the next Supreme Leader. In a close election the support of Ahmadinejad or the IRGC for a candidate could potentially determine the outcome.

Since Ahmadinejad’s election, Iran’s interpretation of velayat‐e faqih has become stricter, moving back toward its original implementation by Khomenei. The model projects that the interpretation of velayat‐e faqih is unlikely to change further in the near future. There is strong support for a stricter interpretation, but currently, the liberal and conservative elements are counterbalancing. The strong conservative coalition makes decreasing or removing the influence of any one stakeholder
inconsequential to the projected outcome, and substantial increases in the effective capabilities of stakeholders supporting more liberal interpretations are insufficient to shift the forecasts.

In the event Iran’s political landscape changes, there is a high likelihood the government would move toward stricter interpretations of velayat‐e faqih.

 Pic - "As there are no legal political parties in the Islamic Republic of Iran, political factions represent the varying ideological and material interests of members of the political elite and their supporters."


Winston said...

Bomb the regime to smithereens if decided to attack. Leaving it wounded would be terrible.