Monday, September 8, 2008

Nyet NATO!

An article of faith among the faithless, the dope about rowdy Russia is:

"Lay back and enjoy it."

Nothing nobody can do - Russia's petrol fed, fat and phat risque panzer blitz that licked Georgia's peach clean is a fait accompli - and a harbinging ho of what past and future vassels can expect if they fall for Great Satan's wicki trick and attempt to hook up with free markets, free choice and the rest of the West.

Since Vlad finally fought the last Chechen War to a draw - the spiritual sons of the ancient Red Army are acting out like it's her 28 day crazy cycle.

Justifying street cred is only part of the story.

The Russian government made two bets when it sent troops into South
Ossetia and Georgia last month. The first — that Russian forces could crush any opposition — was a pretty safe bet. While the Russian military has deteriorated significantly since the Cold War, it has more than enough firepower to defeat the armed forces of any former Soviet republics.

The speed with which it defeated Georgian forces is proof enough of
its enduring ability to crush tiny nations on its periphery

The second bet had longer odds, but was still relatively safe: that the
rest of the world would be unable to muster a unified response and that harsh words would substitute for substantive action. That calculation has also been vindicated.

In the aftermath of the dismemberment of Georgia, Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev has claimed a "sphere of influence" in the world.

Such a military event also put Russia in easy range of securing the one Caspian pipeline she doesn't have her mitts on already.

So how well did Russia's blitz do? Just how crunk is this grrl?

Dr Frederick Kagan (the cat who dreamed up Surge) points out that Russia ain't all that.

Surging with all 3 active regiments of the 18th Motorized Rifle Div.

SPETZNAZ - Russia's Green Berets (48th Reconnaissance Regiment) were deployed in covert missions.

Plus two entire divs of airborne paratroopers who amazingly rode into Ossetia and Georgia by truck! Hardly a devastating shout out about air superiority in Russia's south 40.

Why cause?

Air wise - Russia deployed almost her entire operational reserves of rotary heli choppers and fixed wing ground attack jets - leaving only the Far East and Euro air commands intact - sorteeing over 600 craft.

Obvious screw ups are Red Air Force. Flying Vlad's latest ground-attack jets armed with she bear's newest precision weaponary, pilots are missing way more targets than they're hitting.

All those strikes on civilian rich environs like semi Stalinesque Wedding Cake structure apartments (wide avenued - especially created for those wide shouldered, quick breeding proletariats) - and other innocent targetry?

Maybe some are on purpose. Russia is not above striking terror against murderous creeps or gossipie journalists Some strikes may be totally on purpose and on mission.

Most are prob the result of no game pilots - flying scared.

Missions are missing pipelines, rail lines and oil-storage facilities - just dumping their bombs as quickly as they can and heading home.

Russian pilots are neither pro nor emo tough for precision strikes. Comabatty jet wise - she got game (not like Great Satan created stuff) but classy gear.

The training lags - curiously too - since Russia be blinging to the nth with petrol rubles - and her fly boyz and grrls log way less flight hours than any 30 year in the future military like Great Satan's.

Or match aerial audacity with hot shot fly jocks and jockettes in the League of Hot! Democrazies - Little Satan, Great Britain, France, Taiwan, SoKo. Australia, Canada and Nippon.

Obviously Vlad has plotted this out for a while - so any operational retardedness military wise must be infuriating.

Vlad has

"...relatively few competent, deployable formations--there are the
airborne divisions and the air assault brigades, and a few tank and motor-rifle divisions, but not much else.

Similarly, the Russian air force doesn't have very many fully
operational aircraft or deep reserves of fuel, spare parts and munitions. This invasion has probably eaten deeply into Russian operations and maintenance funding, to say nothing of its war reserve stockpiles of ordnance and equipment. "

Such sassy scathing military brainiac's pro assessment and critique Russia's performance in Georgia, by Great Satan standards or even Western standards is pretty pitiful.

Even the best of the Russian army would be considered rather mediocre, weak and totally played.

Can Georgia recover on her own?

"Georgians can now regroup and re-equip. They are in desperate need
of two things: weapons to kill tanks, and weapons to kill or deter aircraft and helicopters. We can supply both. The Stinger missile, the bane of Russian Frontal Aviation in Afghanistan, is still the most potent shoulder-fired weapon around. It will cause Russian close support aircraft to keep their distance, or to attack from higher altitude.

Providing Georgia with medium-range surface-to-air missiles which can be deployed from Georgian territory proper will further push back their
high-altitude aircraft (e.g., Tu-22M Backfires).

Freed from aerial observation and the threat of air attack, Georgian
forces could move dismounted over the mountains more readily than Russian mechanized forces can move along the roads. Which means that the Georgians would be free to set up ambushes to block further Russian advances and to interdict their lines of communication.

First, we need to give the Georgians anti-tank mines, and not just
any kind, but our latest "smart" off-route mines like the XM93 Wide Area Mine (WAM). These don't have to be placed directly on the roads, but can be put off to the side, where built-in sensors can detect armored vehicles and launch explosive formed penetrator (RFP) warheads at them.

Second, we need to give them our best anti-tank guided
missile, the FGM-148 Javelin. This is a "fire and forget" weapon: once the operator lines up the target in his sights and locks on, he can fire the missile and get away, while the missile will fly autonomously to the target. With a range of about two kilometers, the Javelin also uses a "top attack" profile, diving down onto the roof of the tank where the armor is thinnest.

In action in Operation Iraqi Freedom, javelins were devastating against
Russian-designed tanks. Knocking out a few tanks or other armored vehicles on a narrow mountain road creates a barrier to movement behind which all traffic piles up, immobile and vulnerable to attack.

Georgian special forces are reputed to be well trained and highly motivated. "

They would probably be even more motivated fighting Russians on their own turf and in their very own hoods than they were fighting al Qaeda back in Iraq.

The 'Pain Game's End Game'?

"As Russian forces start to bleed, it will be impossible, even in
the controlled media of Putin's Russia, to hide the casualties from the Russian people. They will probably respond to this as they did to the bloodletting in both Afghanistan and Chechnya.

Worse, for the Russian government, a prolonged and bloody war will
require a massive increase in the Russian military budget, which has been run on a shoestring for most of the Putin era. "

That means making painful choices between military and other priorities, precisely at the same time that oil prices have begun to come down, cutting into Russian revenues - even worse - Great Satan will most likely be totally unbound from Iraq - seeking new ops in expanding the free world and fondly checking out hot! little Georgia.

That type of audacious activity will demonstrate again - Great Satan's firepower, staying power and will power.

Even better it will serve as an example to the old East Bloc of New Europe - that freedom isn't free.

"OkToBrIaNa" by ChRiS jOnEs


Skunkfeathers said...

Vlad might want to hot up the Cold War to reclaim some old Sov "Glory Days", but a defeat in Afghanistan and a draw prior to Georgia, it is apparent that the Russian 'Bear' has lost some teeth. And claws.

Besides, ol' Vlad won't dare send the tanks rolling into the Baltic, let alone Poland, et al.

Findalis said...

Vlad is missing his homies. They've all gone and he's feeling the pinch.

Georgia was first, now he's set his eyes on the Ukraine. Then it will be the rest of the old gang.

Bar Kochba said...

The world says nothing as Russia invades Georgia. I'm afraid that the US is a lame duck.