Surge Baby Surge!

Yeah, yeah -- we know --

Surge was yet another misguided attempt to stabilize a horrific democrazy imposition that unleashed Great Satan's ungodly penchant for destroying wonderful despotic cruel societies, enablers, creeps, jerks and retards (in the classic sense no less) and Xforming them into fun, free choice and modern successful nation states at the point of the world famous M 16.

Oh! The humanity!

Though several cool tomes are out there that paint a way diff pic that refutes such literary chicanery - Like "Strongest Tribe" and the essential "Moment of Truth" it is sweet! to check in with the better half of the daemoneoconic Doc who dreamed up Surge for the Iraq Study Group and the literally killer cool military history of Surge as only the super hot! Doc -- Kimberly Kagan can.

Kimberly is the pres of the Institute for the Study of War in D.C. She is a military historian who has taught at the Military Academy at West Point, Yale University, Georgetown University, and American University.


"The Surge: A Military History" by the creator of Institute for the Study of War sweetly disses grotesque oversimplification of Surge and what it meant.

In this def voluptuous volume, Kimberly sets the record straight, describing the complete operational history of Surge from its inception to the end of 2007. Kagan’s detailed analysis looks at all the players—from al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Iranian-backed Special Groups, to the Jaysh al Mahdi - - and reveals naughty hottie details of day-to-day strategeries, locations, tactics, organization, and responses to Great Satan's actions.

Look for Great Satan haters to freak as the reasons for the reduction in violence and its strategic significance are subjects of continuing debate in the media and in DC.

Many of them make the mistake that the positive trends in Iraq have occurred simply because Mookie screamed for a ceasefire or because Great Satan bought off Sunni insurgents.

Such risible and bass ackwards assertions ignore the key variable in the equation:

Great Satan's change in strategy and her Surge forces.

"The Surge" is essential reading for anyone who wants to know how Iraq was saved from the brink of disaster. Perhaps out of modesty, Kimberly does not stress her own role, as pres and creator of Institute for the Study of War, in pushing for the surge or the role of her husband, Frederick Kagan, in designing (with Gen. John Keane) many of its components."

The Surge" challenges existing accounts in two ways.

First, although Ms. Kagan is sweetly respectful of Gen. David Petraeus, who led Great Satan's uparmored regime changers during Surge, she never really plays up P4's genius at the expense of other important cats.

She draws attention to the pivotal role played by Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, who commanded the day-to-day operations of the Multi-National Corps in Iraq. She shows him helping to ensure that co-operating tribal forces submit fingerprints, weapons serial numbers and family details that would make it difficult for them to take up arms again.

It was Lt. Gen. Odierno who executed Operation Phantom Thunder in June 2007, synchronized operations that, as he told Ms. Kagan, aimed to "eliminate accelerants to Baghdad violence from enemy support zones."

Other key players include Col. J.B. Burton, commander of the Dagger Brigade that annihilated and drove the insurgents out of northwest Baghdad, and David Sutherland, whose combat team pacified the eastern province of Diyala. Ms. Kagan does not mention -- though she might have -- the analysts who helped the Great Satan to rethink her counterinsurgency strategy, such as John Nagl and David Kilcullen.


Second, Dr. Kagan nails the notion that the surge marked a shift from unreflective war-fighting to a "smarter" strategy that combined military and civil elements hair to the floor so tight -- it can't even blink.

This faux school idea, in its extreme form, holds that the additional brigades were a relatively minor factor in a process driven primarily by a political change of heart among former insurgents.

Kimberly shows the opposite to have been the case, and her work proves that that the real deal why Great Satan won in Iraq was that she returned to doing what she does best: war-fighting, killing killers and leaving them on the side of the road for a stranger to bury.


Pic -- "Surge highlights Great Satan's regality"

Unfair Fight

When it comes to war making -- capitalism kills.

Every since Great Satan's "Total War" master rendered the concept of a fair fight null and void -- she has always strove to build the best stuff for annihilating her foes, ensuring survival of her troops -- the pride of our nation -- and seeking short cuts tactically and strategically to devastate her enemies and force them to scream for mercy.

She also enjoys blinging for combat goodies that make potential enemies carefully consider the ramifications of Great Satan unbound.

Like the F 35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter fixing to hook up with American and Allied Navies as the next generation's air superiority and airborne, seaborne delivery system for timely, precise, infliction of pain, agony and defeat on future foes.

The spiritual sons of ancient naval carrier victories welcomes her to the fleet:

"Our Sailors will never be in a fair fight because this airplane will top anything that comes its way. It will give our Sailors and pilots the tactical and technical advantage in the skies and it will relieve our aircraft as they age out"

Nom d'guerre'd after the ancient P38 Lighting the Lightning II is formidable --
and is sweetly available in three different models -- blonde, brunette and redhead -- for Navy Carriers and Air Force landing strips.

She is also stealthy by design -- nigh invisible to nasty little creeps like TOR, S 300 and in theory -- the S400.

She can cook, clean, work hard, sing, strip and dance.

Weapons are toted in two parallel bays located in front of the landing gear. Each weapons bay is fitted with two hardpoints for carrying a range of bombs and missiles. Closer inspection these 'hard points' look like rotisseries - rotating a wide variety of intelligent weaponry.

Weapons for internal carriage include: JDAM (joint direct attack munition), CBU-105 WCMD (wind-corrected munitions dispenser) for the sensor-fused weapon, JSOW (joint stand-off weapon), Paveway IV guided bombs, small diameter bomb (SDB), AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missile and Brimstone anti-armour missile; for external carriage: JASSM (joint air-to-surface stand-off missile), AIM-9X Sidewinder, AIM-132 ASRAAM and Storm Shadow cruise missile.

F35 also bares gleaming fangs with her internally mounted 25mm GAU-22/A gun Gatling cannon system for close encounters.

Built by mainly by Lockheed and several allied firms, her threat envelope is incredible - forcing unlikely cats to hook up and develop their own version of an F35.

Like tiny Taiwan and Commonwealth Russia! Wonder how how Red China feels about that!!

Pic - "Die, Bitches"

Victory

Seems one of the terms not used in AfPAK terminology of critics is one of Great Satan's way back in the last millennium fav words.

Victory.

With an exception here and there (notice how it only occurs in the realpolitik era) victory is acchieved as the goal -- the over riding concern -- of which all other concerns are subordinate.

Dancing on the ashes of our enemies in Afghanistan/Pakistan is NOT a mirage or an undoable event.

Great Satan's intelligentsia (Oh! He got game bay bee!! ) brings up the idea that bathing in the blood of our blood sworn foes is the goal -- the only goal.

In a word?

Victory.

"A starry-eyed exit strategy is no substitute for winning the war in Afghanistan. On Monday, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband called for talks with moderate Taliban elements to shore up the progress being made on the ground in southern Afghanistan. The Manchester Guardian reported that "there is even talk in London and Washington of a military 'exit strategy.' "

"Leaving so soon? The recent troop surge in Afghanistan has cleared the Taliban from some of the areas they previously occupied, and there has been less fighting than expected. Generally, the insurgents are not standing to battle the thousands of Marines and coalition forces flooding into Helmand province and other areas. Withdrawing makes sense from their perspective; they are greatly outmatched, and where the insurgents decide to take a stand, they tend to get wiped out. This is guerrilla warfare 101.

"Taliban strengths are mobility and morale. Their current strategy was laid out earlier this month by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's second-in-command, who, according to Newsweek, told his commanders to focus on hit-and-run attacks, ambushes and the planting of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). "Keep your weapons on your backs and be on your motorcycles," Baradar reportedly told his subcommanders. "America has greater military strength, but we have greater faith and commitment."

"That being said, we should not be surprised if the Taliban also want to negotiate because it has worked well for them in the past.

"Negotiation is a tactical expediency for the guerrilla fighter, not a means of finding lasting solutions to complex problems. If the enemy can be persuaded to leave, it is much easier than trying to drive him out.

"In September 2006, the Taliban agreed to a truce in the Helmand province town of Musa Qala. They agreed to renounce violence, and NATO forces under the command of British Gen. David Richards, who had negotiated the truce, withdrew from the town. In February 2007, the Taliban overran Musa Qala and jailed the moderate tribal leaders who had brokered the deal.

"The town remained under Taliban control for most of 2007 until it was retaken by coalition forces. Now the area is controlled by Mullah Abdul Salaam, a former Taliban commander who switched sides and helped NATO regain the city. Mullah Salaam's former compatriots killed his son recently and followed up by attacking the young man's funeral. In this neighborhood, peace has a price.

"The successful American strategy in Iraq was based on the "clear, hold and build" formula. Clearing is the easiest part. Helmand province has been "cleared" every year for the past three years. Holding the cleared region and building on that security are more difficult. This is not because the enemy can drive our forces out, but because of the propensity of policymakers to focus on finding an "exit strategy" rather than winning.

"Agreements with the Taliban that require the quick departure of our forces are certain to be broken as soon as coalition boots leave the ground. The Taliban will then reoccupy the ground they previously held. That will bring us back to the need to "clear" it again. "

Victory.

Pic "Victory Girl"

Wobbly

Despite polls showing little of the famous British determination to fight through to victory regardless of cost, GB's Fo Sec -- the Right Honourable (and right Hot!) David Miliband lays it out to play it out for continued continuance in AfPakland:

"In recent weeks the debate about Afghanistan has centred on the UK military’s tactics and resources. The bravery and commitment of our forces has been remarkable, and the toll of death and injury from recent operations heavy. But the result is 80,000 to 100,000 Afghans secure from Taliban threats and violence, and able to vote in the Afghan elections on August 20.

"We committed to this mission for one reason: to deny al-Qaeda a base from which to attack the world. People support this and understand that in the 1990s the Taliban authority in Afghanistan provided a convenient incubator for al-Qaeda. But people now want to know whether and how we can succeed. We can. This is how.

"The insurgency we face is more complex than a single “Taliban”. Different groups operate in different areas across the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. Co-operation is opportunistic and tactical. The southern Afghan insurgency, led by members of the former Taliban government, has the most fighters and is the best organised. In the east and in Pakistan there are a variety of other factions, including ones allied to al-Qaeda.

"Afghans are drawn into the insurgency for different reasons. There are soldiers paid $10 a day, narco-traffickers who want safe passage for their drugs, and those who fear the Taliban will win and so hedge their bets.

"The insurgency has proved resilient, adaptable and deadly. But its weaknesses are also clear. It is a wide but shallow coalition of convenience. It is deeply unpopular: only 8 per cent of Afghans say they want the Taliban back. Its support base is limited to Pashtun areas. And it cannot take and hold territory for long against conventional forces. By the end of 2011 there will be more than 134,000 members of the Afghan army. Alongside them will be 97,000 Afghan police.

"General Stanley McChrystal, head of the Nato force in Afghanistan, has explained that success is measured not by the number of Taliban killed, but the number of Afghans protected. Success against the insurgency requires legitimate local politics, formal and informal.

"That explains the importance of credible elections next month. The decisions of the next Afghan government will be key. There are three major political challenges for it to address: it must divide the insurgency through the reconciliation and reintegration of former Taliban; it must reassure and support the Afghan population at large; and it must develop a constructive dialogue with Afghanistan’s neighbours.

"First, Afghanistan needs a political strategy to dismantle the insurgency’s power base. Afghans need effective governors and district leaders and local governance that works with the grain of tribal structures and history. An inclusive political settlement must bring in conservative Pashtuns and separate them from the hardline Taliban, who must be pursued relentlessly.

'The reintegration of former Taliban requires offering bigger incentives to switch sides and stay out of trouble, alongside tougher action against those who refuse. There are precedents: former enemies now work together in the Afghan government; former Taliban sit in the parliament.

"At a local level, this means giving village elders the confidence to speak out against the Taliban. Military pressure has an important role to play – Afghans must know that they will be protected from the insurgents if they side with the government.

"So the second imperative is that Nato must support the Afghan government in showing the people that they will not be deserted to Taliban retribution. We are not fighting in Afghanistan because girls were not allowed to go to school, but helping them do so will lead to a better future for Afghans.

"In Helmand, we are working to help build schools, provide clean water and electricity, surface roads and support agriculture. The UK Department for International Development will spend more than £500,000 in development assistance over the next four years.

"Finally, Afghanistan’s neighbours must definitively accept its future as a secure country in its own right. It has long been a chessboard upon which the geopolitical struggles of others have played out. The new dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan is important.

"There are now mutually reinforcing efforts on both sides of the border, with extra troops deployed in southern Afghanistan alongside Pakistani military operations in Waziristan. This trend must be maintained and deepened, including with Afghanistan’s other neighbours.

"People talk about Afghanistan as the “graveyard of empires”. But the international community, still less Britain, is not trying to create a colony. We are there to help an Afghan government dismantle the insurgency through the twin tracks of military power and political engagement. That is a necessary mission, and an achievable one

Art "Wobbly"

Wanted

When it comes to jerks and creeps that delight in inflicting agony, death, destruction and misery on anything that isn't just like them -- the creator of Ansar al Islam's Mullah Krekar is at the top of the list.

The list of uncool stuff attached to the self proclaimed "Helpers of Mohammedism" certainly makes the case for why such hideous rejectionists make the list of Great Satan's Official Enemies List:

* AAI are the most proficient head choppers in the ME since Crusader days.

* AAI practically invented the asymmetrical warfare against Great Satan in Iraq -- detonating the very first vehicular detotnations along with the very first and the very most suicide bombers of any group in the ME.

And their leader is living safe as milk as an asylum seeker in Vikingland.

Once Norway had a rep as ravishing reavers - striking fear into coastal northern, western Europe and the British Isles. Xianity and the crossbow eventually changed their ways and Scandinavia joined the family of fun, free and friendly family of nations.

So why the H is Mullah Krekar -- a sworn enemy of Great Satan, girls, democrazy and Hooters hanging out in Oslo?

Mullah KKKrekar's dossier reads a lot like plumbing the depths of an ungodly cesspool of intolerance, hatred and cruelty.

Born in 1956 in Iraq, Mullah Krekar is the founder of Ansar al Islam (Helpers of Islam), a group which has targeted Great Satan's coalition forces as well as Iraqi and non-Iraqi civilians.

Allegations against Krekar include complicity in the 2003 bombing of the United Nation's mission in Iraq, training and recruiting foreign fighters to serve as snipers and suicide bombers.

He also met up with OBL in Pakistan and buddied up with al-Zarqawi, the notorious and DEAD creep that served as al Qaeda's boy Elroy in AQII.

Jordan sentenced Krekar in absentia to 15 years hard labor and Iraq has requested that he be extradited to stand trial. Krekar is currently living in Oslo, Norway.

This despite a ruling by Norway's Supreme Court declaring him a threat to Norwegian national security and a decision by Immigration officials to deny his asylum claim and revoke his residence permit.

Krekar split because Saddam Hussein had ordered his death for his work with the Kurds. In 1991, Krekar and his family received refugee status in Norway.

Mullah Krekar loves jihad -- and any weapon from "...shoes to atomic bombs..." are delish, desired and required to rid the world of Great Satan.

Practically endowed with a cadre of suicide bombers and head choppers from his orphanage work - obviously -- the kids are seduced, trained and had their brains washed clean of anything other that the desire to race to the next life -- and to take as many people along with them on the ride to Paradise.

Recently a collective of Great Satan's top Green Beret snake eaters, Navy SEALS, brainiac attorneys and investigative journalists caught up with Mullah Krekar who is fighting extridition to Iraq for War Crimes and had a most unpleasant chat.

If Norway doesn't get their act together and ship Krekar's murderous asset to face the music in Iraq perhaps that collective or one like it could again visit Mullah K.

And initiate a disappearance of the guy and a thorough, leisured interrogation for the rest of his tormented, painful and very short life.

Art - "Bin Laden Mohammednazi v2.0"

3 Strange Days

Ancient technology is a hoot! Recently found a device known as a 'Cassingle' - this old school device could only be accessed by another ancient artifact called a cassette player.

And when the two finally hooked up - vola!

Amazingly up to date jams onboard by "School of Fish" with clever backwards sounding guitars - an unignorable snare drum and some of the most cool lyrics since Sir Paul did the walking talking bass line for "Nowhere Man"

"...For 3 Strange Daze -- I could not put a smile on my face

" So they dressed me up in all of their clothes and took me somewhere else..."

And

"...I pulled up a chair and started drinking by myself..."

The middle eight is especially appropo in the new millennium

"...I've got to make it through -- no matter what it takes..."

Original Video here

R2P

One of the least used weapons in the tool shed of regime change is UN's R2P clause. AKA "Responsibility To Protect" -- R2P essentially means that if unelected and some nigh unhinged regimes wish to retain and claim incredible control powers over their own people while enjoying the thong of 'sovereignity' then they have got to protect their people from genocide, and mass atrocities.

Responsibility to Protect captures a simple and powerful idea. The primary responsibility for protecting its own people from mass atrocity crimes lies with the state itself. State sovereignty implies responsibility, not a license to kill.

When a nation state is unwilling or unable to halt or avert such crimes, the wider international community then has a collective responsibility to take whatever action is necessary.

NYT has an interesting bit that shows how a murderous creeps in chief enabling enablers are tempted to take the R2P regime change casus belli off the shelf.

Many countries fear R2P will invite Great Satan or any of the league of Hot! Democrazies to sweetly meddle in internal affairs, and so General Assembly President D'Escoto and former Indian Permanent Representative Sen have rallied a coalition in opposition to the concept.

NYT gets it bass ackwards though and claims that 43

"disliked the doctrine on the ground that it might tie American hands in foreign policy decisions."

Au contraire' mon frer'!

In fact, 43 endorsed R2P in 2005 and worked throughout the admin to do the R2P dance. Secretary Dr Rice, for example, cited R2P in calling on the Security Council to act in Darfur, and has many times cited her disappointment that Great Satan and her allies were not more successful in ensuring effective R2P action.

Great Satan worked with other Security Council members to reaffirm R2P in U.N. Security Council resolution 1674.

Whatever the outcome of the General Assembly debate, the Great Satan. should continue to work to defend and strengthen the international community's ability to take action under R2P. Columbia Law School professor Matthew Waxman is currently finishing a report for the Council on Foreign Relations, due out this fall, with a number of important recommendations on how Great Satan can move ahead on R2P.

One idea about the current stymie attemptus:

Great Satan make clear that it will not support any country for U.N. Security Council permanent membership without a demonstrated commitment to R2P.

This means countries that have worked to shield Burma and Zimbabwe and Iran from international scrutiny need not apply. (Congress should also make clear that this is a requirement of Great Satan official ratification of any Security Council expansion proposal.)

R2P action is challenging enough under the current membership. If 44 is serious about supporting R2P (and re reading Dr Susan Rice -- current UN girl's readables -- serious is the best word for her stuff), Great Satan needs a Security Council with members fully committed to effective action.

Hellfire!

Well, well well! Perhaps the wack debate about Great Satan sweetly striking blood sworn enemies, creeps and agents of intolerance in the semi sovereign fake believe nation state of Pakistan just recv'd la kiss la morte'.

"Hellfire!" (pronounced 'Heckfire") is an ancient Hillbilly term -- an expression of delight, surprise, disgust, anger or chili.

Hellfire is also front and center in Great Satan's global overseas contingency war against terror.

Essentially -- the argument was that while Reaper drones armed with the magical Hellfire II missile did indeed allow Great Satan to repeatedly, without restraint or modesty dance on the ashes of her enemies - the sexyful strikes ran immense risks of turning al qaeda and Taliban sympathizers into ardent supporters.

A significant point never addressed is that Hellfire II weaponry isn't slow or painful.

Alas, that's true - yet the news that Great Satan extracted sweet, hot! vengence on the head of super villan OBL's own dear sweet boy -- righteous payback precisely delivered on Sa'ad Bin Laden -- who is on Great Satan's enemies list is joyous indeed -- and while Americans may not dance naked in the street covered with fake blood drunkenly reveling in a sweet hit -- it's certainly worth a high five.

Sa'Ad's career- he reportedly facilitated communications between al Qaeda's No. 2 official and the Iranian extremist Qods Force after al Qaeda's attack on Great Satan's Embassy in Yemen last year.

Sa'Ad was part of a small collective of creepy al Qaeda operatives who helped manage the terrorist organization from Iran, where he was arrested in 2003, according to the Treasury Department and kept under house arrest -- until he recently magically appeared in Land of the Pure.

Hellfire II has expertly knocked off 22 High Value Targets, which include some of the high- and mid-level Taliban and al Qaeda leadership in the tribal agencies since the first strike was reported back in June 2004.

While debaters may debate about the wit and wisdom of Hellfire II impact areas being magnetically attracted to aq guys, their allies and minions -- it is still cool to bask in the warm afterglow of cashing in Sa'Ad and giving him a literal boost to the perfumed gardens of paradise:

"Their effects are seen: carnage, destruction, arrest, and pursuit, but they themselves remain unseen, just like Satan and his ilk who see us while remaining unseen."

Congrats Great Satan -- revel and joyfully dance on the ashes of our enemies.

Future Air Superiority

News that Great Satan has stopped blinging for the incredible F 22 Raptor alledgedly opting instead to bling for the F35 Multi Strike Fighter (which is a fancy way of saying F35 is so hot -- she can can do Air Force, Marine and Navy air superiority roles) brings up the idea of Air Superiority and possible contentions and contenders in the near future.

"Air Superiority" -- essentially means dominating the air -- the enemy cannot get anything up for long without Great Satan or her crunk and disorderly democrazy allies flaming it out of the sky.

"That degree of dominance in the air battle of one force over another which permits the conduct of operations by the former and its related land, sea, and air forces at a given time and place without prohibitive interference by the opposing force."

GrEaT sAtAn"S gIrLfRiEnD"s Commonwealth Expert, Yevgeny Bendersky shares a worldview of global air superiority for the near future.

"Considering Great Satan's unmatched air superiority in the coming decades - questions abound as to what kind of aircraft will fight our future wars - and against whom? With Defense Secretary Robert Gates shifting funds to the efforts needed to fight today's wars, who may potentially go up against American air machines in the no-too-distant future?

"The F-22 aircraft was designed for a manned, conventional combat against multiple air and ground targets, but its primary roles was to achieve combat superiority against enemy fighters. Today, the majority of the world's most advanced military jet fighters are produced by Western, mostly pro-American, U.S.-friendly nations, such as the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Brazil, Italy, South Africa, Israel, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea.

"These countries may sell large quantities of these aircraft to mostly U.S.-friendly states, like India, or deliver small quantities to potential combatants, like Iraq and Syria (though never in numbers large enough to threaten American interests).

"Possible exceptions may be Pakistan and Egypt, countries experiences significant internal difficulties and who operate American fighter planes. All in all, U.S. jet fighters reign supreme across the globe because of an extensive logistical and support network that spans the entire planet.

"The only remaining true "enemy" combatants to the F-22 are planes designed for actual combat with the American Air Force. The list is small, and consists of aircraft either with a proven quality track record, or features new machines that have never been combat-tested.

"They are Sukhoi's Russian Su-30, Su-35, Su-37 fighters - currently being exported around the world - and Chinese J-11 and J-10 aircraft. There are no other takers, possibly for a long time. Iran is developing and fielding its own jet fighters, but they are more along the aircraft designed by Americans in 1970s-1980s. Chinese aircraft may look like their Western counterparts, but have no real combat experience to speak of, at least for now.

"Adding to more questions about the F-22's fate are plans by the United States Air Force to field an all-UAV lineup by mid-century, "potentially replacing every manned aircraft in its inventory."

"Given the fast pace of air drone development - and unmatched American leadership in this cutting-edge technology - this plan may come to fruition much sooner than the Air Force predicts.

"However, Russia and China are not stopping their development of modern manned air fighters, at least not for the next two-three decades.

"So if the F-22 actually flies into combat, who will it be facing it on the other side? For now, it seems, that could be Russian or a Chinese-made aircraft, no doubt about it.

Art - "Air Superiority" -- by Arts and Letters

Submitted by Yevgeny Bendersky

Top Spy Guys of The Middle East

The Middle East -- a tough hood no doubt -- cutthroat activity and sleight of hand ops literaaly can make or break a nation or a regime. Foreign Policy outs the top cats with killer dossiers and cool intell.

Pyramidland's Omar Suleiman -- the grand old man of the regions risque activities kicks off the piece:

Position: Director of Egypt's General Intelligence Service

Career: The archetypical Arab intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman has risen from anonymous government apparatchik to serious candidate for the Egyptian presidency in less than a decade. Dubbed "one of the world's most powerful spy chiefs" by London's Daily Telegraph, Suleiman was born in 1935 in a poverty-stricken fundamentalist stronghold in southern Egypt. Choosing the military as his profession, he excelled academically, collecting degrees in Egypt and abroad and earning a transfer to military intelligence. His selection as director of Egypt's intelligence service in 1993 came just as the regime was reeling from extremist attacks against tourist sites and other critical infrastructure.

In 1995, he famously insisted that President Hosni Mubarak's armored Mercedes be flown to Ethiopia for a state visit; The car saved the Egyptian leader's life during an assassination attempt the next day. In response to the attack, Suleiman helped dismantle Mubarak's Islamist opponents, a campaign that earned him a reputation for ruthlessness. Following the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, Suleiman's experience with combating Islamist terrorists has made him a favorite of Western intelligence services hungry for insights into al Qaeda and affiliated organizations.

Influence: More than from any other single factor, Suleiman's influence stems from his unswerving loyalty to Mubarak. Of Suleiman's allegiance, a former senior Israeli intelligence officer told Haaretz, "His primary task, perhaps his only one, is to defend the regime and protect the life of the president."

In a sign of presidential gratitude, Egypt's secret warrior has also recently served as its diplomatic face, traveling throughout the region as Mubarak's personal emissary. This charge includes working as a mediator during ongoing Israeli and Palestinian negotiations and as Cairo's interlocutor to dozens of Palestinian groups, including Hamas. Whether this unofficial promotion is a trial run for a Suleiman presidency remains to be seen

Little Satan's Meir Dagan.

Position: Director of Little Satan's Mossad

Career: Meir Dagan's path to the leadership of Mossad was not a traditional one for an espionage chief who had spent most of his career in military operations, not intelligence. Born in the Soviet Union in 1945, Dagan served as a paratroop commander in the Six Day War, worked in special undercover units in the 1970s, and commanded an armored brigade in the 1982 Lebanon war. Highly decorated and wounded twice, Dagan benefited from his relationship with future Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. During Sharon's term in office, Dagan was steadily promoted through the national security ranks leading to his appointment as Mossad chief in 2002. Sharon reportedly informed his old friend that Israel required a spy service "with a knife between its teeth." Dagan, the veteran operator, seems to have obliged.

Influence: Dagan's sway was on full display in June when the Israeli cabinet met to consider extending his term to a near-record eight years. No vote was required as senior politicians including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raced to praise Dagan as "an excellent Mossad chief" who had done much to reform the service following a period of decay. Such unanimous acclaim is especially impressive at a time when Israel is relying heavily on its vaunted intelligence service to counter several threats, including that "existential" one from Iran. Dagan has clearly sought to bolster Mossad operations against Tehran with some apparent success; a parade of Israeli journalists has recently hinted at Mossad's clandestine campaign against the Iranian nuclear program.

Additionally, the assassination of Hezbollah security chief Imad Mugniyah -- widely credited to Mossad -- has only strengthened Dagan's hand. It was reportedly Dagan's intelligence and advice that coaxed Israeli political leaders to approve airstrikes against a possible Syrian nuclear facility in September 2007. Finally, Tel Aviv's reliance on Mossad-derived intelligence to guide its greater Iranian policy grants Dagan considerable influence over his country's foreign policy.


Persia's Qassem Suleimani

Position: Commander of the Quds Force, the external wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps

Career: Referred to as "the tip of Iran's spear" by American journalist David Ignatius, Brig. Gen. Qassem Suleimani was an unknown until he assumed command of the Quds Force, the unit responsible for supporting Iran's regional allies and proxies. A decorated veteran of the Iran-Iraq War, Suleimani attracted the attention of President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who appointed the young war hero to a command position within the Revolutionary Guard following the war. Since his promotion to Quds Force chief in 2000, Suleimani has been omnipresent, representing the interests of the Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Central Asia.

U.S. commanders in Iraq have charged the Quds Force with passing an array of sophisticated weapons to Iraqi militia groups, leading to Suleimani's designation as a terrorist supporter by the U.S. State Department in 2007. In early 2008, he reportedly traveled to Basra, where he negotiated a cease-fire between militias and government forces, a testament to his influence within Iraq's Shiite power circles.

Influence: Suleimani's key role in overseeing Tehran's regional strategy and his relationship to the senior leadership make him a major player in shaping Iranian foreign policy. Former Western intelligence officials have suggested that Suleimani maintains a close connection to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, with former U.S. counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke stating that the Quds Force "reports directly to the Supreme Ayatollah." Former CIA official Robert Grenier has echoed that sentiment, referring to Suleimani as "an extremely important and influential guy."

Although little is known about his political views, Suleimani's exploits indicate he is aligned with Iranian leaders who seek to aggressively counter any U.S. presence in the region. With Khamenei relying heavily on the Islamic Republic's security organs during the current political crisis, the fortunes of well-connected and capable regime stalwarts such as Suleimani can be expected to rise.

Syria's Assef Shawkat

Position: Former commander of Syria's military intelligence agency, current deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military

Career: Few paths to power have been as unlikely -- or as oddly romantic -- as Assef Shawkat's. Born in the coastal town of Tartus, Shawkat served in the Syrian military while pursuing a graduate degree in history, a subject for which he has a deep affinity. Shawkat moved easily within elite circles, socializing that paid off spectacularly when he captured the heart of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad's daughter, Bushra. His dogged pursuit of Bushra -- her father initially opposed the relationship -- earned him some measure of respect: "Anyone who could go into the home of Hafez Assad and take his daughter away without his permission has the power to do anything,'' a Syrian newscaster who had met Shawkat many times told the New York Times in 2005.

By the late 1990s, Shawkat had joined the inner sanctum, assuming command of military intelligence in February 2005 -- the same month former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri was assassinated. The initial findings of a U.N. commission cast suspicion on Shawkat, leading many observers to suggest that President Bashar al-Assad would hand his brother-in-law over for questioning or possible trial. In January 2006, the U.S. Treasury Department added to the avalanche of condemnation by freezing Shawkat's assets and dubbing him "a key architect of Syria's domination of Lebanon.

Influence: By 2008, having successfully avoided the calls for his extradition, Shawkat appeared poised to continue the consolidation of his power base. However, his ascension may have been stalled by the death of Hezbollah security chief Imad Mugniyah in February 2008. Killed in the heart of Damascus, Mugniyah's death was viewed as an embarrassing breach of security or even an indication of Syrian involvement.

Tellingly, Shawkat was barred from participating in the joint Hezbollah-Syrian-Iranian investigation into Mugniyah's death. Additionally, just this month, Shawkat was "promoted" to deputy chief of staff of the Syrian military, a transfer that may signal a deterioration of the Assad-Shawkat relationship.

However, given Shawkat's marriage to Bushra and his long-standing ties to senior members of the security apparatus, it is way too early to count him out of the Syrian power game.

Helmand Anvil

In combat tactical terminology - 'hammer and anvil' essentially means driving foes out of fixed positions into positions where they are trapped, cut apart and annihilated. The anvil part stays firm as a breakwater to repel fleeing or enemy movement while the hammer portion sweetly hammers the living daylights of them.

Like in Afghanistan's Helmand Province - rich in doped up dope fields, illicit cash crop for Taleban - and chock full of Taleban fighters, tribal allies -- and quite possibly al qaeda cats.

"Marines pushing deep into a Taliban stronghold in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province battled insurgents in a day of firefights around a key bazaar Sunday, as an operation designed as a U.S. show of force confronted resistance from Taliban fighters as well as constraints on supplies and manpower. Insurgents at times showed unexpected boldness as they used machine guns, mortars and rocket-propelled grenades to fight the advancing Marine forces."

"Although the Marines overpowered the Taliban with more sophisticated weapons, including attack helicopters, the clashes also indicated that the drive by about 4,500 Marines to dislodge the Taliban from its heartland in Helmand is running up against logistical hurdles.”

Despite Taleban and their Haqqini allies PR coup - releasing a vid of a captured soldier - prompted to request all NATO forces leave Afghanistan -- news also that Afghanis are rebelling againt Taleban - cutting deals with Great Satan as open combat breaks out amidst former semi allies in Nangarhar til now among the least-violent provinces in southern and eastern Afghanistan, where the Taliban are strongest.

Since Tribal structures are stronger in eastern Afghanistan than in many other parts of the country - this is significant.

"The fighting in Nangarhar, which was reported over the weekend, began after Taliban fighters attempted to kidnap an Afghan army officer in the Achin district, witnesses said. The officer escaped and took refuge among villagers, who refused to turn him over to insurgents.

"The Taliban then attacked, prompting a firefight with the villagers, who killed three insurgents and captured 11, said Mr. Abdulzai, the provincial spokesman. Nearly a half-dozen villagers who witnessed the fighting confirmed his account.

"The villagers handed over 10 prisoners to authorities and kept one in hopes of exchanging him for a tribesman being held by the Taliban, Mr. Abdulzai said.

Blunt Warnings

"We want the Haqqanis to know we will hit them anywhere"

Haqqanis' are blood sworn enemies of Great Satan and have been fittingly functioning as Hellfire missile magnets for a while now.

Haqqanis are closely allied with the Taliban and al Qaeda, and have close links with the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's creepy secret military intelligence agency. Haqqanis run a parallel government in North Waziristan and conduct military and suicide operations in eastern Afghanistan.

And they have a prize - an American soldier.

Leaflets handed out to locals contained this blunt warning: "If you do not free the American soldier then you will be hunted."

Great Satan has been heavily criticized by the Afghan government for civilian deaths - 900 have died this year alone. Officials say the new message is not meant to scare the local population. - au contraire!

Consider it a friendly give and take - for now - the killing and scaring are actually quite dependent on what Haqqani does next.

2 leaflets, one scary, threatening with an uparmored super soldier smashing in the door to a humble abode and one fun and friendly with GI's hanging out and having fun with the locals, could be seen as a good cop, bad cop routine.

Great Satan makes no apology for her rather blunt tactics.

If any one is offended - so what?

Great Satan wants her son back.

Now.

"Lead With Diplomacy"

Great Satan's Madame Sec o' State -- HRC -- shared a few ideas at CFR before she departs for sunny sunny climes east of Suez.

Several interesting bits - Palestine, NoKo and this especial clarion to Iran that Diplomacy may be the first choice of 44's Admin -- but the op for it won't be around forever:

"Lead with diplomacy, even in the cases of adversaries or nations with whom we disagree. We believe that doing so advances our interests and puts us in a better position to lead with our other partners. We cannot be afraid or unwilling to engage.

"Yet some suggest that this is a sign of naiveté or acquiescence to these countries’ repression of their own people. I believe that is wrong. As long as engagement might advance our interests and our values, it is unwise to take it off the table.

"Negotiations can provide insight into regimes’ calculations and the possibility – even if it seems remote – that a regime will eventually alter its behavior in exchange for the benefits of acceptance into the international community. Libya is one such example. Exhausting the option for dialogue is also more likely to make our partners more willing to exert pressure should persuasion fail.

"With this in mind, I want to say a few words about Iran. We watched the energy of Iran’s election with great admiration, only to be appalled by the manner in which the government used violence to quell the voices of the Iranian people, and then tried to hide its actions by arresting foreign journalists and nationals, and expelling them, and cutting off access to technology.

" As we and our G-8 partners have made clear, these actions are deplorable and unacceptable.

"We know very well what we inherited with Iran, because we deal with that inheritance every day. We know that refusing to deal with the Islamic Republic has not succeeded in altering the Iranian march toward a nuclear weapon, reducing Iranian support for terror, or improving Iran’s treatment of its citizens.

"Neither the President nor I have any illusions that dialogue with the Islamic Republic will guarantee success of any kind, and the prospects have certainly shifted in the weeks following the election. But we also understand the importance of offering to engage Iran and giving its leaders a clear choice: whether to join the international community as a responsible member or to continue down a path to further isolation.

"Direct talks provide the best vehicle for presenting and explaining that choice. That is why we offered Iran’s leaders an unmistakable opportunity: Iran does not have a right to nuclear military capacity, and we’re determined to prevent that. But it does have a right to civil nuclear power if it reestablishes the confidence of the international community that it will use its programs exclusively for peaceful purposes.

"Iran can become a constructive actor in the region if it stops threatening its neighbors and supporting terrorism. It can assume a responsible position in the international community if it fulfills its obligations on human rights. The choice is clear.

"We remain ready to engage with Iran, but the time for action is now. The opportunity will not remain open indefinitely.

Art - "Diplomacy" by PG7

Assassins

It's true! In those scary scary days right after 911 -- when kids were learning new uncool words like Al Qaeda, Anthrax, Sniper, WMD and Taleban, Great Satan's spy guys were gearing up to put the vent into unconventional warfare.

Targetting al qaeda cats and hopefully super villan OBL himself with two shots in the head -- each.

This is significant. Cats along side the cat at the center of the storm -- then CIA chief Geo Tenet -- dreamed up plans to insert righteous payback in the form of Great Satan's trained killers right in the face of the enemy -- literally.

"Officials at the spy agency over the years ran into myriad logistical, legal and diplomatic obstacles. How could the role of the United States be masked?

"Should allies be informed and might they block the access of the C.I.A. teams to their targets? What if American officers or their foreign surrogates were caught in the midst of an operation?

"Would such activities violate international law or American restrictions on assassinations overseas?

Godfather style hits -- where some creep's brains may get splattered "...all over your nice Ivy League suit..." are in fact way more “surgical” surgically solution wise in eliminating terrorists than missile strikes with armed Predator drones, against creeps deploying innocent, intelligent human shielding that alas -- occasionly resulted in dozens of civilian casualties.

Actually -- seems that drones gone wild -- sweetly and concurrently under way are the spiritual relatives of hit teams that allow their enemys to actually see them and realize in the last seconds of a hateful wasted life that certain activities are like magnets for certain reactive activites.

Though the plan was never carried out -- tons of legit and stupid concerns like those noted above -- the leaking of such ideas -- never totally taken off the shelf -- serves to remind friends and enemies alike that when Great Satan gets riled up -- she is kinda crazy and unpredictable.

Art - "Assassins of the Great Satan" by 4th Wall Theatre

Ambush

Way back when Surge was getting crunk up, Mullahoplis stepped up the deployment of agents of mayhem and murder -- collectively known as the Revo Guards 'Al Quds Force" -- to assist their boy Elroy -- Mookie Al Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia in an attempt to caliphate Iraq into a theocrazy -- not unlike Persia's.

In January '07, five Iranian agents fell right into Great Satan's clutches in Kurdistan's Irbil city. Iran claimed the cats were part of a diplomatic mission in Irbil, and protested the arrest. The men were operating from a liaison office that, alas, enjoyed no diplomatic privileges.

Fittingly enough, the Irbil 5 promptly disappeared -- hopefully made uncomfortable and subjected to leisurely, thorough and intense interrogations.


"The five detainees are connected to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard – Qods Force (IRGC-QF), an organization known for providing funds, weapons, improvised explosive device technology and training to extremist groups attempting to destabilize the Government of Iraq and attack Coalition forces"


The "Bad Bad Basra" campaign against Iran's terror network in Iraq kicked off with the capture of Iranian agents in Baghdad in December 2006 and the detention of the Qods Force agents in Irbil the following month. Great Satan and the New Iraq Army guys cracked down hard on the Ramazan Corps, the command set up by Qods Force to direct operations inside Iraq.

The campaign culminated in a major operation led by the Iraqi security forces to annihilate and dismantle the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army and allied Special Groups in Baghdad and central and southern Iraq.

The recent release of the Irbil Five, was actually after the release last month of Laith Qazali, the brother of Qais Qazali.

Qais Qazali was the commander of the Qazali network, which is better known as the Asaib al Haq, or the League of the Righteous. Qais was a spokesman and senior aide to Mahdi Army leader Muqtada al Sadr. The terror group, which was part of the Mahdi Army until the spring of 2008, has received extensive financial and military support from Iran's Qods Force.

The League of the Righteous was directly implicated by Surging General Petraeus as being behind the January 2007 attack on the Provincial Joint Coordination Center in Karbala, as well as other high-profile terror attacks in Iraq. Five American soldiers were killed during the Karbala attack and subsequent kidnapping attempt.

As Great Satan closed in to free her sons, terrorists executed the five American soldiers.

Releasing these creeps to Iran -- even for innocent American girls like Roxanne -- is actually a cause for more haeartache.

Iran recipped by trying to detonate Great Satan's new Ambassador Chris Hill to Iraq Sunday -- in Thiqar province -- a

"Shiite Arab-dominated province was among the first handed over to Iraqi security forces, and was the scene of periodic clashes between Iraqi security forces and a militia loyal to anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in 2007."

Art -- "Ambush" by Vincent Segrelles

Horten Ho 229

Reimer and Walther Horten -- often called the Horten Brothers -- had little, if any, formal training in aeronautics, avionics or radar -- yet created the most advanced aircraft design of probably all time.

By 1943 in WWII Deutschland -- it was do or die time. The Eastern Front was absorbing nearly 80% of Das Reich's energies and resources, Afrika was lost -- looked like Italy was next -- and Great Britain and Great Satan were staging the debut of many many 1000 plane raids -- heavy bombers flattening German cities.

Luftwaffe's Reichsmarschall Göring issued a request for design proposals -- the 3 X 1000 project -- to produce a bomber that was capable of carrying a 1,000 kg (2,200 lb) load over 1,000 km (620 mi) at 1,000 km/h (620 mph). Conventional German bombers could reach Allied command centers in Great Britain, but were suffering devastating losses from Allied fighters.

Horten brothers delivered the world's first stealth aircraft. And ejection seat!

Essentially a flying wing, Ho 229 was of mixed construction, with the center pod made from welded steel tubing and wing spars built from wood. The wings were made from two thin, carbon-impregnated plywood panels glued together with a charcoal and sawdust mixture -- magically rendering HO 229 invisible to radar.

A shortage of pilots, petrol and catastrophic defeats on all combat fronts rendered HO 229 null and void

To determine once and for all whether Ho 229 had stealth capabilities, experts first examined the surviving 229 (sweetly hidden in DC) and probed it with a portable radar unit based on WW II time British radar tech.

Then, in the fall and winter of 2008, they set about building the full-scale re-creation at a restricted-access Northrop Grumman testing facility in California's Mojave Desert.

The construction team embraced historic materials and techniques, and the Horten 2-29 replica, like the original, is made largely of wood and bonded with glue and nails.

According to tests on the replica, World War II British radar would have picked up the Ho over the English Channel at about 80 miles (129 kilometers) out, versus 100 miles (160 kilometers) for a conventional World War II fighter.

But because of Ho 229's tremendous speed, the time from detection to target—the British mainland—would have been lowered from the usual 19 minutes to just 8 minutes, making it nigh impossible for Allied fighters to respond.

Pic - Horten Ho 229

Self Inflicted

"We weren't defeated by superior tactics -- we were thrown against the wall by sheer weight of numbers" so said combat star Kurt "Panzer" Meyer describing last millennium's titanic struggle featuring Nazi time Deutschland versus Collectivist time Russia.

Meyer knew a thing or two about tactics -- having served in Waffen SS Liebstandarte and later commanded Waffen SS Hitlerjugend in Normandy -- and his ancient analysis of Russia's war machine may still be considered au currant.

Despite fond memories of the vaunted juggernaut that ground Eastern Europe into dust eons ago -- Russia's combat bona fides were seriously dissed in not one -- but several wars against Chechnya way back in the 1990's

When Russia tried to put down Grozny the 1st time in the Commonwealth era - it was horribly embarrassing - like catching a longtime Gf hooking up with a guy that she KNEW you liked.


"The initial attack ended with a major rout of the attacking forces and led to
heavy Russian casualties and nearly a complete breakdown of morale. An
estimated 1,000 to 2,000 federal soldiers died in the disastrous New Year's
Eve assault.

"All units of the 131st "Maikop" Motor Rifle Brigade sent into the city,
numbering more than 1,000 men, were destroyed during the 60-hour fight in the
area of the Grozny's central railway station, leaving only about 230 survivors
(1/3 of them captured). Several other Russian armored columns each lost hundreds of men during the first two days and nights of the siege."

The mighty Red Army quagmired in their own back yard with the first defeat suffered by Russia nearly 51 years to the day. Not since the wicked Wehrmacht desperately delivered a bloody nose at Zhitomir Ukrainia had the Red Army been defeated and retreated.


And now BBC shares not so cool intell on the recent panzer blitz that licked Georgia's peach clean last summer.

BBC says Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technology says that half the Russian planes lost in last summer's five-day war were shot down by friendly fire.

The latest issue of the Moscow Defense Brief reports that Russia lost six jets in the war with Georgia, not four as officials claimed at the time. At least three were downed by the Russians themselves.

Detailed info about each of the losses, including times, locations and the names of the pilots.

It is also highly critical of the Russian military.

It says there was a total absence of co-operation between the Russian army and the Russian air force, which led them to conduct completely separate campaigns.

Russian forces easily overwhelmed Georgian troops during the brief war.

But the BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes says losses sustained by the Russian side in just five days have led analysts here to question how Russian troops would fare against a bigger, better-equipped and better-trained enemy.

Pic - BBC

Something For Nothing

Three hours after arriving at the Kremlin, President Barack Obama signed a preliminary agreement on a new nuclear arms-control treaty with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. The agreement -- a clear road map for a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) -- commits the U.S. and Russia to cut their nuclear weapons to the lowest levels since the early years of the Cold War.

Mr. Obama praised the agreement as a step forward, away from the "suspicion and rivalry of the past," while Mr. Medvedev hailed it as a "reasonable compromise." In fact, given the range of force levels it permits, this agreement has the potential to compromise U.S. security -- depending on what happens next.

In the first place, locking in specific reductions for U.S. forces prior to the conclusion of the ongoing Nuclear Posture Review is putting the cart before the horse. The Obama administration's team at the Pentagon is currently examining U.S. strategic force requirements. Before specific limits are set on U.S. forces, it should complete the review. Strategic requirements should drive force numbers; arms-control numbers should not dictate strategy.

Second, the new agreement not only calls for reductions in the number of nuclear warheads (to between 1,500 and 1,675), but for cuts in the number of strategic force launchers. Under the 1991 START I Treaty, each side was limited to 1,600 launchers. Yesterday's agreement calls for each side to be limited to between 500 and 1,100 launchers each.

According to open Russian sources, it was Russia that pushed for the lower limit of 500 launchers in negotiations. In the weeks leading up to this summit, it also has been openly stated that Moscow would like the number of deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched missiles (SLBMS), and strategic bombers to be reduced "several times" below the current limit of 1,600. Moving toward very low numbers of launchers is a smart position for Russia, but not for the U.S.

Why? Because the number of deployed Russian strategic ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers will drop dramatically simply as a result of their aging. In other words, a large number of Russian launchers will be removed from service with or without a new arms-control agreement.

The Obama administration will undoubtedly come under heavy pressure to move to the low end of the 500-1,100 limit on launchers in order to match Russian reductions. But it need not and should not do so. Based solely on open Russian sources, by 2017-2018 Russia will likely have fewer than half of the approximately 680 operational launchers it has today. With a gross domestic product less than that of California, Russia is confronting the dilemma of how to maintain parity with the U.S. while retiring its many aged strategic forces.

Mr. Medvedev's solution is to negotiate, inviting the U.S. to make real cuts, while Russia eliminates nothing that it wouldn't retire in any event.

This isn't just my conclusion -- it's the conclusion of many Russian officials and commentators. Russian Gen. Nikolay Solovtsov, commander of the Strategic Missile Troops, was recently quoted by Moscow Interfax-AVN Online as saying that "not a single Russian launcher" with "remaining service life" will be withdrawn under a new agreement. Noted Russian journalist Pavel Felgengauer observed in Novaya Gazeta that Russian leaders "have demanded of the Americans unilateral concessions on all points, offering practically nothing in exchange." Precisely.

Beyond the bad negotiating principle of giving up something for nothing, there will be serious downsides if the U.S. actually reduces its strategic launchers as much as Moscow wishes. The bipartisan Congressional Strategic Posture Commission -- headed by former secretaries of defense William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger -- concluded that the U.S. could make reductions "if this were done while also preserving the resilience and survivability of U.S. forces." Having very low numbers of launchers would make the U.S. more vulnerable to destabilizing first-strike dangers, and would reduce or eliminate the U.S. ability to adapt its nuclear deterrent to an increasingly diverse set of post-Cold War nuclear and biological weapons threats.

Accepting low launcher numbers would also encourage placing more warheads on the remaining ICBMs -- i.e., "MIRVing," or adding multiple independently targeted warheads on a single missile. This is what the Russians openly say they are planning to do. Yet the U.S. has long sought to move away from MIRVed ICBMs as part of START, because heavy MIRVing can make each ICBM a more tempting target. One measure of U.S. success will be in resisting the Russian claim that severely reducing launcher numbers is somehow necessary and "stabilizing." It would be neither.

Third, the new agreement appears to defer the matter of so-called tactical nuclear weapons. Russia has some 4,000 tactical nuclear weapons and many thousands more in reserve; U.S. officials have said that Russia has an astounding 10 to 1 numerical advantage. These weapons are of greatest concern with regard to the potential for nuclear war, and they should be our focus for arms reduction. The Perry-Schlesinger commission report identified Russian tactical nuclear weapons as an "urgent" problem. Yet at this point, they appear to be off the table.

The administration may hope to negotiate reductions in tactical nuclear weapons later. But Russia has rejected this in the past, and nothing seems to have changed. As Gen. Vladimir Dvorkin of the Russian Academy of Sciences said recently in Moscow Interfax-AVN Online, "A treaty on the limitation and reduction of tactical nuclear weapons looks absolutely unrealistic." If the U.S. hopes to address this real problem, it must maintain negotiating leverage in the form of strategic launchers and weapons.

Fourth, Mr. Medvedev was quoted recently in RIA Novosti as saying that strategic reductions are possible only if the U.S. alleviates Russian concerns about "U.S. plans to create a global missile defense." There will surely be domestic and international pressure on the U.S. to limit missile defense to facilitate Russian reductions under the new treaty. But the U.S. need for missile defense has little to do with Russia. And the value of missile defense could not be clearer given recent North Korean belligerence. The Russians are demanding this linkage, at least in part to kill our missile defense site in Europe intended to defend against Iranian missiles. Another measure of U.S. success will be to avoid such linkages.

In short, Russian leaders hope to control or eliminate many elements of U.S. military power in exchange for strategic force reductions they will have to make anyway. U.S. leaders should not agree to pay Russia many times over for essentially an empty box.

Finally, Russian violations of its existing arms-control commitments must be addressed along with any new commitments. According to an August 2005 State Department report, Russia has violated START verification and other arms-control commitments in multiple ways. One significant violation has even been discussed openly in Russian publications -- the testing of the SS-27 ICBM with MIRVs in direct violation of START I.

President Obama should recall Winston Churchill's warning: "Be careful above all things not to let go of the atomic weapon until you are sure and more than sure that other means of preserving peace are in your hands."

There is no need for the U.S. to accept Russian demands for missile-defense linkage, or deep reductions in the number of our ICBMs, SLBMs and bombers, to realize much lower numbers of Russian strategic systems.

There is also no basis for expecting Russian goodwill if we do so.

Submitted by Yevgeny Bendersky

Green Light

Gallons of blood have passed under the bridge since Iran's elections. And, true to form the regime is reaching back to revolutionary bona fides again -- taking Great Britain's Embassy staff members hostage.

Last years rumours that Great Satan may have deflected Little Satan's open diss about smacking Perisa's tender sensitive portions with a lethal dose of enrichment interruptus may be null and void now.

Indeed - Great Satan's amiable, semi avuncular VP mentioned that Little Satan may be able to do whatever she wants whenever she wants.

A green light.

Tough to imagine anyone would really give a flying Imam if Iran were to get bit or hit with a blitz of Little Satan's fighter/bombers or a mix of combat aircraft and missiles.

Rumours that Saudiland may offer up sovereign airspace for IAF to trek along and hit the three critical nodes in Iran's nuclear program are worth noting simply for the operational benefits this offers to Little Satan:

Perhaps to unleash those hundred or so magically enhanced F15's and F16's -- or even go ballistic with -- o -- say, 42 Jericho III missles with about a 750 kg Warhead each would seal the deal.

Pic - Little Satan's Green Light

Red Star Reset

There is a mystique about Russian-American summits, going way back to Last Millennium's FDR, Sir Winnie and Comrade Josef - the Man of Steel hook up in Yalta in 1945, to the first visit by Great Satan's pres to Mockba in 1972, by Richard Nixon when he signed the unsalty Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I).

Plus historical cats have always thought that the hook up in Wein betwixt JFK and naughty Nikita Krushchev in 1961 was critically crucial 'cause it may have led Khrushchev to think that JFK was a weakling playboy - inciting Khruschev to act out against the Monroe Doctrine leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis that October.

Aside from Commonwealth's on again off again on again deal with Persia to sell and deliver S 300 Air Defense stuff so the Mullahopolis can protect sensitive, tender portions from a devastating dose of enrichment interruptus, the recent military sexercise right up against tiny tiny Georgia -- there have been several indicators that may indicate a 'reset' is indeed reset.

Russia announced last month that it was no longer seeking World Trade Organization (WTO) membership, but was instead going to seek membership for a customs union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

All that is for sure is that the decision came at just the moment when it seemed as though almost all of the obstacles to Russia's acceptance had been removed.

Cats close to the trade negotiations say that it was imaginable that Russian accession could be completed in a couple of months. Putin took the wheel and turned the policy in a completely different direction. Many Russian economic policymakers are aghast at what has been done.

And lastly the welcome news that Commonwealth herself will facilitate the timely deliveries of goodies, munitions and all kinds of support for Great Satan and NATO combatants currently engaging Taliban, nation building and keeping Liberty's torch flaming in AFPAKland -- directly through Commonwealth turf -- a first.

Discussion topics up for discussion betwixt 44 and Pres Medvedev include:

Medvedev’s earlier proposal for a new security architecture in Europe versus Great Satan's push for NATO enlargement into the former Soviet Union that angers Moscow.

Great Satan's Missile Shield in ex Warsaw Pact turf. True -- there's really no technical reason for Commonwealth to freak at this stage about the missile defense as it's currently proposed. Looking 5, 10 years down the road though -- it could be considered the foot in the door. It could lead to a much more ambitious missile defense program in the future. The concern is that Commonwealth's own deterring missiles would deter little

Aside from photo ops, there are some very interesting developments ahead.

Open Letter to 44 from Foreign Policy Initiatives

The Honorable Barack Obama
President of the United States
The White House
Washington, DC

Dear Mr. President:

You have stated your intention to forge a positive relationship between the United States and Russia. We write on the eve of your summit meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev to express our belief that such a relationship requires a commitment by both countries to democracy and human rights and to urge you to reiterate that these values, which you have called universal, are inextricably linked to humane behavior at home and responsible behavior abroad. Furthermore, we ask you to meet with human rights, civil society, labor and opposition political party leaders while you are in Moscow.

Since Vladimir Putin became President in 2000, Russia has been on a downward spiral away from the democratic and economic reforms made in the 1990’s after the collapse of communism. Human rights activists, opposition political party leaders, lawyers and journalists are targets of brutal, even deadly attacks. Freedoms of speech and the media are increasingly limited by the state and the Kremlin has asserted growing authority over the economy, especially the energy sector.

We urge you to challenge Russian leaders about the lack of political and economic freedom in Russia. In your Cairo speech you stated that the freedom of speech, the ability to choose one's own government and way of life, the rule of law and transparency “are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere.” Moreover you noted the connection between democracy and security, asserting that “governments that protect these rights are ultimately more stable, successful and secure." This principle gained even more salience as Russia's invasion of Georgia last year revealed the lengths to which it will go to assert a sphere of influence in the region.

For decades, the United States was a beacon of hope to those behind the Iron Curtain who longed for their freedom. As you stated in Prague, after the Iron Curtain was lifted “freedom spread like flowing water. Just as we stood for freedom in the 20th century, we must stand together for the right of people everywhere to live free from fear in the 21st.”

As you go forward, we hope that you will maintain a clear-eyed assessment of Russia’s intentions and keep the above principles in mind in order to ensure that the effort to “reset” U.S.-Russian relations does not come at the expense of the Russian people or Russia's neighbors.

Sincerely,

Max Boot
Ellen Bork
William Courtney
Larry Cox
Lorne Craner
Larry Diamond
Donald Douglas
Nicholas N. Eberstadt
Jamie M. Fly
Jeffrey Gedmin
Carl Gershman
Morton H. Halperin
Bruce Pitcairn Jackson
Max M. Kampelman
Robert Kagan
David Kramer
Irina Krasovskaya
William Kristol
Tod Lindberg
Clifford D. May
Thomas O. Melia
Courtney Messerschmidt
A. Wess Mitchell
Joshua Muravchik
Danielle Pletka
Stephen Rickard
David Satter
Randy Scheunemann
Gary Schmitt
Dan Senor
Stephen Sestanovich
Gare A. Smith
John Sullivan
William H. Taft IV
Peter Wehner
Kenneth R. Weinstein
Christian Whiton
Leon Wieseltier
Damon Wilson
Jennifer Windsor
Kenneth D. Wollack
R. James Woolsey