Friday, April 18, 2008

Guns Of August

"On July 29th 2008 Iran successfully launches a Shahab rocket and orbiting satellite, proving it has a formidable functioning delivery vehicle, then announces it has produced sufficient fissionable material at its Natanz facility to build two nuclear bombs in 2009 and begins work on underground test facilities in the basalt formations beneath the great salt desert of Dacht-e-Kavir.

Supreme Leader Ali Khameini announces boldly that his nation has manufactured weapons-grade fissionable material enriched to nearly 100% (in lieu of 5% enrichment for peaceful nuclear reactors)."

Two days later Great Satan launches the most audacious regional series of regime changes ever implemented in history, Officially dubbed 'Operation Boundless Freedom" Allies and enemies alike refer to it as 'Operation Great Satan"

3 Iranian submarines are destroyed - 1 in the Med, 1 in the Atlantic and 1 in the Indian Ocean. Another surrenders and defects near Barcelona.

Naval and air force assets at Bandar Abbas are hit with a combination of missiles and a
French- Saudi Amphibious assault from Qatar and the UAE. Waves of Tomahawk cruise missiles streak through Persian aerospace from ships and subs - effectively targetting the Iranian air force - air fields, missile sites and air defense systems are struck down within hours.

Communications are
totally co opted or overwhelmed cybernetically. Nearly 50 B2 Stealth bombers sortee to to strike IRRGC command and control HQ's.

"American warplanes and missiles carefully avoid striking research reactors in Teheran and Ispahan as well as the nuclear reactor at Bousher--less than 100 kilometers from Kuwait--as well as the centrifuges themselves at Natanz in an effort to prevent the spread of radioactive material to nearby population centers.

However, other missiles producing electromagnetic pulses do knock out
virtually all of Iran's electric grid and computer systems"

Airborne troops from Great Britain and Great Satan sieze all passes through the Zagros mountains - effectively cutting Iran in half.

Special Forces strike and hold especial clerical compounds in Tehran and Qom right before Friday prayers. Nearly 20% of Iran's ruling praetorian guards and mullahs are captured, killed or missing by breakfast time.

Armed insurgencies break out across Iran as
ex and au currant MEK groups strike, sieze and hold towns and cities.

At the same moment, Little Satan launches a panzer blitz straight up the Bekah Valley. Key turf captured and held by paratroopers and commandos. Syrian missile batteries are captured or annihilated by waves of attack aircraft and Syrian armor fights a desperate retreating battle - outmatched and over whelmed by a new school combo of vertical envelopment as armor surges and chops through an immense junkyard of wrecked, smoldering Russian built tanks and a flood of broken Syrian conscripts.

Great Satan' s seaborne regime changing
Marines hit the surf just north of the Litani river in Lebanon and methodically grind and leap frog straight through the heart of Hiz'B'AllahLand.

missile batteries and weapons caches (many in innocent civilian rich areas) are captured by chopper borne marines and French commandos or trashed.

HBA's command complex in Beirut is clamped shut by heavily armed Marines after precision cruise missile strikes.

Al Manar - HBA's 'suicide channel' seems to be co opted - running a marathon of "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" in Arabic overdubs. All communications in the ME are totally wacked - from Bashar's Al Sana network to Al Jazeera - regular programming has been replaced with the most outrageous cable quality programming the Great Satan can jam like "Playboys Girls Next Door" and choice selections from 'Girls Gone Wild'

The IAF incinerates the power grid in Damascus and by the 3rd day - Little Satan's self propelled artillery is shelling the Presidential Palace. Downtown Damascus is cut off and resistence crumbles.

Within 5 days, Iran is reduced to a state of near paralysis, unable in any sense to retaliate militarily, its entire economic infrastructure in shambles. By this time the largest armored division in history has left Iraq and
"Old Ironsides" is within striking distance of a thunder run into downtown Tehran.

Riots wreck the regime and a caretaker gov is installed by the Iranians themselves. Syria is occupied and
Hiz'B'Allah is history.

Lebanon starts to rebuild the ME's riviera. HAMAS is suddenly confronted by a host of alternate, well armed. tolerant, egalitarian political movements (funny too - the Strips pop magically increases by nearly 40K) and has a real fight - politically - on it's hands to maintain a bizarro land where death is precious, praised and preferred.

Sound crazy? Hold up - Check out the tease and inspiration for this all original scenerio in "Iran, Le Choix des Armes" by Francois Heisbourg.

Alas, unavailable in English yet,
the PR looks interesting.

"For there are some extraordinary surprises in this consummate, if brief, but brilliantly conceived work by the man who is perhaps Europe's leading global thinker--chairman of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, adviser to French presidents and ministers of defense and foreign affairs going back to Valery Giscard d'Estaing and top adviser to French arms makers from Thompson to Matra."


Beaman said...

Blimey! That's the best piece of military prose I think I've ever read. It had my heart pounding. If only it will turn out to be that easy! I hope so.

Super writing there Courtney!

Karen Townsend said...

Excellent read here, Courtney, on this Friday morning! It sure kept my attention. And, quite beliveable, too!

Roger W. Gardner said...

What a great exciting and inspiring read! I believe it. I believe we could actually do it.
Once the Will Switch is turned on I believe we could do anything.

With your permission I'm going to put this up as a "Read More" on Radarsite.

Terrific work Courtney! Love it!

Findalis said...

Love the idea! Just one thing. Little Satan would have taken out the Syrian AF first, before any troops landed.

Now if it was only true. We can hope and wish for it.

Skunkfeathers said...

If it comes to that scenario, I hope you prove prophetic!

RememberSekhmet said...

I hope that's how it turns out as well. My only fear would be the effect on American domestic politics.

Right Truth said...

I'll mark my calendar. Have you been looking into that crystal ball again???

Seriously, it could happen if we really wanted it to and could talk sense into some of our politicians.

(Not if Hillary of Barack were in power, so it MUST happen before they could take office)

June it is.

Debbie Hamilton
Right Truth

Jeff Wills said...

Very good read, Courtney. I can see something like that actually happening if the World community let's Iran go nuclear. Once Iran crosses that threshold the pucker factor is really going to get tight.

James Higham said...

I'm with Beaman here.

AmPowerBlog said...

Courtney: This is so true:

"...outmatched and over whelmed by a new school combo of vertical envelopment as armor surges and chops through an immense junkyard of wrecked, smoldering Russian built tanks and a flood of broken Syrian conscripts..."

It reminds me of back when I was an undergrad, and I used to study Soviet Third World policy, which was to shift the world "correlation of forces" in favor of Moscow through the ideological-military backing of nascent Marxist-Leninist regimes on the periphery.

Excellent analysis. This is straight out a Leon Uris novel. Let's see how this plays out!

You go girl!!

Ottavio (Otto) Marasco said...

One totally CRUNK, Hot August night, and I’m not referring to the image… Great expression Courtney. The anti war types will dismiss Heisbourg's writing as fodder for the industrial military complex … We need that English version – look out for it!

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Beaman! Thanks luv. I got carried away re reading Kenneth Mackesy's bit on 'Sea Lion' a while back researching the RAF BDay thing - so when I found Dr H's book - I just went with it!

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hey Karen, thank you! I honestly think all this jazz about knocking out nukey plants is a smokescreen. Prob be more productive in the long run to kill the regime.

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

RoGeRbAbE! Hello my mentor! You always have my permish sir. I really think it would be worthy if push came to shove.

Consider - the regime is hated, nearly 80% of the pop is like 37 or younger and knocking out (or knocking one heck of a dent in) the regime would prob work. While Iran has several C and C centers, there are only a few calling the shots. Kinda like Stalinist Collectivism.

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Findalis. I hear you. Air Superiority is essential. And that was what was amazing. Researching the Syrian Air Force - it was actually quite embarrassing. Bashar's AF is really really weak. Unable to tend to their aerospace when Little Satan raided their sensitive tender portions last Sept was significant.

Here's some stats on SAF

Thanks for reading and the comments!

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi SF. Me too!!

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Sekhmet. True that. OTOH, there would be little sympathy for any of them if the right conditions - like the opening paras played out.

I conceed your point though, in an election year it would be awful iffy.

Thanks for reading and the comments.

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Debbie - well, well, well - yeah I know - I need to get that crystal ball back to you!

I've been preaching about a regime killing strike on Iran since back before Surge. Slate gave me the nom de guerre 'implaccable' when I sent it to them.

I agree totally - it could happen. June? whoa - that's just around the bend!!

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Jeff. Dr H felt the same way - it would be totally unacceptable to let that happen.

Pucker factor?!! Hey, that was funny - I may have to steal that bit - giving ye full cred of course.

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

semaj, hey there. thank you very much. It was a trip writing it out I must say.

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Donald, thank you. Nearly all the Arab states are or once were Soviet clients and absorbed tons of Warsaw Pact time military doctrine.

Bodansky mentions the correlation of forces and how it wasn't applied by Iraq back in '03. To be fair - he felt it wouldn't have worked out well either.

Jordan went with Great Britain and Little Satan's military is almost a copy of Great Satan's military TO and E.


GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Otto! Thank you. I wanted to translate it (it's really short)but my French gets worse everyday. I hope Brookings or somebody brings it over. Maybe ISS will since he's their guy.

You know, other cats have horrific make believe stories like Corsi and Timmerman - only seems fair to have a fun sexy one.

Findalis said...

Actually it is not the Shahab-6 missile that Europe has to worry about, but the Kavoshgar 1 rocket which can go 4000 miles or 6,000 km you can hit London (2,740 miles). This puts Paris , Berlin, and Rome within their reach.

Iran will be testing this soon. Puts the time table for attack up a bit, doesn't it?

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi Findalis - grrrl, that is scary!
Thanks for the cool link!

Hans Lemurson said...

The scenario you propose is interesting, but I do have some certain reservations.

I have no little doubt that the American and Israeli military, launching large-scale pre-emptive military attacks on Iran, Syria, and Lebanon would be able to achieve the military successes that you describe. However, I think that it is rather optimistic to assume that stability and moderate egalitarian sentiments would spring up from the ruins of the former regime.

No matter how well-intentioned or well-executed such an operation might be, you are going to run into a simple and fundamental fact: People don't like being invaded, and if they get angry enough, they will violently rebel. There is already no shortage of anti-western sentiment in the arab world, and for anyone, having your homeland be invaded, regardless of the government at the time, is going to be an affront to your dignity.

There are angry people in these countries, and invading them will just make them angrier, and place a lot of American troops within shooting distance. Conquering foreign countries is no simple business and very messy.

You can't simply bomb the crap out of them, land some troops and then declare "Mission Accomplished".

(I mean you no offense in this criticism, and I hope you will take the time to understand where I'm coming from.)

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

Hi David, Thank you. Well, that's the rub. This is an invasion free manuever. A regime killing regime change may not actually have to involve a WWII style (or Iraqi Freedom style) invasion. Knocking out the top 20% of Iran's ruling clerics, head cats in the IRRGC and all their precious assets would do just fine.

While Iran has some redundancy in their command and control centres - these are actually quite few in number - as are the cats calling the shots. Such a hit may well mean that any wanna be supreme leader could get his own guts stomped out in the streets ny the Iranians themselves.

Anonymous said...

There are angry people in these countries, and invading them will just make them angrier, and place a lot of American troops within shooting distance. Conquering foreign countries is no simple business and very messy.