Wednesday, November 30, 2011


Nishan - e - Haider!

This delightful little ditty from way back in the last millennium makes a wonderfully crunk soundtrack for the 'lationship au courant betwixt Great Satan and her only client new clear army with a nation state attached.
Oh, it is so! All the cool kids knew eons ago the AF part of AFPAK is about as good as it can get  - until (unless) certain 'no go zones' across the magical Durand line are violently xform'd into combat zones. 

Which could be interpreted to be going on right now, ala the recent border clash betwixt NATO and Land of The Pure that has Pakistan tore up from the floor up.
"Although it is currently unknown what triggered the "tactical development" along the Afghan-Pakistan border on Nov. 26, given recent events in the area it is likely that the aerial destruction of the remote Pakistani outposts was prompted by either the movement of Taliban fighters between Kunar and Mohmand or by artillery salvos emanating from Mohmand, or both."
And it's equally true cats with zero affinities for Taliban, al Qaeda or the Haqqi Network will be totally dissed and resentfully resent, violently even, having their nation state assailed with Drones Gone Wild and air power from abroad.

Against this backdrop--Pakistan careening from one crisis to the next and the Land of the Pure - Great Satan hook up at lowest level of suck available so far - - the quiz is - was NATO set up?

Reports suggest the Taliban may have deliberately tried to provoke a cross-border firefight that would set back the fragile menage à trois l'guerre betwixt Great Satan, NATO and Pak.

See, insurgency warfare is  kinda hit and run - and it's hurtfully unhelpfull if the insurgents have a spot to run to after the hit
Pakistan remains a safe haven for insurgents, which makes military victory almost impossible. "Slamabad is also unwilling to allow coalition forces to root out the Taliban and foreign fighters because they may, one day, come in handy. The strategic rationale for supporting the Taliban - to have a sympathetic, radically "Slamist neighbor on its western flank - is an inescapable fact of geography. 

Such a set up and the aftermath is unclear - yet certain conclusions may be Cordesman'd 
If Pakistan should effectively cease all cooperation with Great Satan and ISAF in allowing transit through Pakistan, it would shut off a critical supply route in the winter, and one for which there is no good alternative. The Northern route is barely possible, but it would take months to find out just how much capacity is really available, and even under the best conditions, the capacity would be inadequate and the lead times would seriously affect both the campaign and aid efforts in 2012.

Pakistan needs aid, however, and at least a minimal face of good relations with her largest patron. It seems likely that this crisis will get papered over with an ISAF apology, a bribe in the form of better aid flows, and some kind of smokescreen about better liaisons. In the process, however, the NATO will face even less prospects that Pakistan will really crackdown on insurgent groups in the border area, or stop seeing Afghanistan as an area where it competes with India, and which is useful for strategic depth in some future war with India.

There will be a new façade, but the fundamental differences in strategic perspective will remain. A largely vacuous set of new pledges and promises in the coming conference in Bonn will not affect the reality that Pakistan now acts on the basis that the ISAF forces allies will be gone at the end of 2014, and it must now serve its own interests in keeping ties to the Taliban, Haqqani, and Hekmatayer.

Like many other regional states - and many states outside the region - Pakistan will talk about new efforts at regional cooperation and helping Afghanistan, but it will seek to create a zone of influence along its borders. It will do what it can to use any talks between the Afghan government and the insurgents to its own advantage, and to try to push the Afghan government into closer ties to Pakistan and away from the US. It will try again to reach out to China as a substitute for US aid - although China is unlikely to be much more forthcoming than in the past. It will ensure that any remaining US advisory presence is narrowly constrained in ways that serve the Pakistani military, and place even more limits on US intelligence and use of UCAVs.

This will not cripple the US transition effort, but it will further undercut it. It will make reaching any kind of stable outcome in both Afghanistan and Pakistan as the US and ISAF withdraw their forces even more doubtful. It will also send a message to Russia, China, the Central Asian states, India, and Iran that they must do what they can to buffer themselves against the coming cuts in US and ISAF forces, spending in the region, and aid to Afghanistan and Pakistan. There will be more talk of a regional solution, aid pledges, and enduring support, but the reality will be very different. Every state will act to its own advantage and pursue its own view of its narrow self-interests.

This will make Afghanistan's "transition" even more difficult to do major without US and ISAF forces and anything like the present level of spending and aid even more difficult, and create even more problems for Free World allies in getting the legislative support and funds they need. It also will isolate Pakistan more, make the tensions between its civil government and military worse, and reduce outside aid. It will also mean that even if - as seems most likely - Pakistan does reopen its supply routes to the US and ISAF, relations will remain so tense that new incidents and crises in US and Pakistani relations are inevitable. 

This will undermine the already uncertain chances America can actually achieve any stable benefits from the war after 2014 - either in Afghanistan or Pakistan

Pic - "Pakistan's State Motto could very well be sump like "Hey y'all! Watch this!"

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Syrian Coup d'état

 Suriya al- Kubra! 

Perhaps the most prolific of all regime changes - l' Coup d'état  remains the single most common form of regime change throughout the world. 14 alone attempted in 2004! 
Coup d'état are historically hot in sunny sunny climes near Suez. 

GsGf"s Military Revolution and Political Change cat gives up hot deets and sexyful mind candy about the current despotry/insurgent chiz in Dr General President For Life Bashar Bay Bee"s Syria.

Just lucky perhaps - a faltering regime and rising violence often leads to a military coup. Coup d'état  were commonplaces in much of the developing world back in the 1950s and 1960s and a convoluted and incomplete one began in Egypt last fall.

And for the illegit Allawicious regime in  Syria - getting all faltering and all violently arisen is getting fully crunk - is a coup doable?

Syria is ripe for one now.  Arab League's overwhelming approval of sanctions hot on the heels of League suspension - the first in its 66-year history - increases pressure on Assad.

The Assad government faces violence from several quarters. Civilians in the opposition are arming themselves with weapons brought in from Lebanese markets and western Iraq by the Muslim Brotherhood and smuggling networks which have attached themselves to insurrectionary movements. Syrian security forces can no longer fire into crowds without fear of facing return fire from rooftops and windows. Nor can they move from town to town without fear of attack.

In recent weeks several thousand soldiers - a precise or even rough figure is not yet clear - have deserted the Syrian army and formed the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Better trained and equipped than the civilian fighting forces, the FSA are mounting attacks on government buildings in Damascus and pulling off deadly ambushes in between restive cities. The heretofore solid support of the armed forces can no longer be relied upon by the government.

Sectarian violence is breaking out in a few cities. The Alawite (Shi'ite) population, from which much of the Assad political, military, and business elite come, is subject to attacks and intimidations. These events will recall the early days of sectarian fighting after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq in 2003, which of course devolved into murderous sectarian warfare.

There are still hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Sunnis in Syria who fled the warfare and the dismal prospects for their co-religionists in the now Shi'ite-dominated country. Many will eagerly side with Syrian Sunnis against the Shi'ites in and out of the regime. Their ties to the Sunni resistance in Baghdad and Anwar make for a good supply of arms and trained fighters, facilitated by Saudi intelligence.

Approximately 10% of Syria's 23 million people are Kurds. They have long endured oppression and will likely seek to break away from Northeastern Syria and become part of the Kurdish region in Northern Iraq. Iraqi Kurds took advantage of Saddam's ouster to break away from Iraq, forming a separate flag, constitution, and army. They are for all practical purposes an independent state and will welcome incorporating a portion of Syria. Northeastern Syria is the location of much of Syria's oil resources and would make oil-rich Kurdistan all the more wealthy, powerful, and of interest to the West.

The military perspective
Armies are not always the steadfast servants of the government they claim to be. They at times act in their own institutional interests, usually commingling with nebulous ideas of honor and virtue and duty. Most of the Syrian army leadership is dedicated to, and part of, the Assad regime. Loyal officers are rewarded with promotions and upon retirement may expect sinecures in the regime's business sector (as for example do their colleagues in the Egyptian and Pakistani armies).

Other officers may see their interests shifting away from Damascus as the regime is failing to serve the nation's interest, particularly as the new sanctions impact on business. It can no longer maintain law and order; indeed, it is the chief cause of unrest. It can no longer guarantee the integrity of national boundaries, and if the oil-producing region were to break away, the nation's economy would weaken badly. Further, Assad's rule is leading to the gradual disintegration of the institution the military cares most for - itself.

For the Syrian officer corps, national considerations as well as institutional ones make a military coup desirable. Two scenarios are plausible: an elite group and a more broadly based one.

An elite coup would entail parts of the Assad regime's military, political, and business notables deposing Assad and perhaps a few high-ranking figures, with or without their permission. Assad would be sent off into exile or confined to some sort of protective custody, although a more definitive removal is possible even by pragmatic loyalists.

Assad is not a strong-willed person or leader. An opthamologist by training, he was not slated to succeed his father to the presidency until his elder brother was killed in an automobile accident in 1994. He was then rapidly groomed for succession with perfunctory positions in the state and army and an attendant publicity campaign.

He worried parts of the regime after he ascended to the presidency in 2000 when he began to enact economic reforms, replacing party apparatchiks with more technically trained experts. Democratic reform in the undetermined future was alluded to. Many older parts of the regime saw him as a threat well before the uprisings last spring and may be ready to oust him.

Such a coup would be presented to the public as a substantive change and as a victory for the public opposition. The new leaders would then appeal for calm and support for the new government. It would appeal to the Alawite minority and others who have benefited from Assad rule over the decades, and perhaps also to others who see the opposition as leading to civil war, sectarian strife, and foreign invasion.

Iran and Hezbollah would welcome such a coup as the only way to retain a sympathetic government in Damascus. Russia and China would be supportive but skeptical as to its viability. The Syrian opposition is unlikely to find such a government as welcome, viable, or even new. In fact, such a move would be a sign of regime weakness. It would only strengthen opposition and accelerate military desertion.

A more plausible coup scenario, if only somewhat, is one based on a broader portion of the officer corps, including high-ranking but sub-elite colonels and generals. These officers see their advancements to the highest ranks blocked off by the regime's preference for Ba'ath loyalty and Alawite piety. In this respect they could appeal to some in the opposition who also feel stifled by the regime and also to the Sunni majority.

A coup ousting the Alawite, pro-Iran government would be so advantageous to Saudi Arabia that the prospect is likely being diligently pursued by Saudi intelligence in conjunction with Salafist networks inside Syria (and Lebanon) that enjoy Saudi funding. Detaching Syria from longstanding ties to Iran would be a serious blow to Tehran, partially compensating Saudi Arabia for Tehran's gain from the rise of the Shi'ites in post-Saddam Iraq. It would also join with a Sunni region in western Iraq in opposing Iran and Shi'ite Iraq.

A coup of either sort will be difficult to plan let alone successfully execute. Many dictatorships (Gamal Abdel Nasser, Muammar Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein and Hafez al-Assad) came to power through military coups and constructed safeguards to prevent another ambitious colonel from seizing power the same blunt way. Officers are screened for loyalty and placed under routine surveillance. In times of stress, the regime increases its watch over the officer corps.

Even a coup led by officers genuinely committed to reform and representative government would be regarded with suspicion. The Syrian public, like counterparts around the Arab world, is deeply suspicious of generals purporting to be on their side. They seem to be willing to toss aside a dictator and general or two in order to maintain their high positions if not expand them.

 Pic - "Dynamics of Military Revolutions"

Monday, November 28, 2011

Forecasting the Future of Iran

Velayat‐e faqih!

As best understood - getting all psychic l'futur diplopolititary cuts both ways (Oh, you know it is so - ouch! LOL).

Anywrought - czech out RAND"s hot! pdf thingy thinking out loud about Future Persia and Massive Implicating Implications For Great Satan"s Strategy and Policy

Diplomatic relations betwixt Great Satan and Iran have been, like, froze up frozen since the 1979 Revolution. The current overlaps in Great Satan and Iranian interests make the ongoing bilateral impasse ripe for reassessment, but while the potential to advance relations exists, progress will be measured by the development of several key political, economic, civil society, foreign policy, and national security issues in Iran. 

This study employs an expected utility model to predict how Iranian policy is developing on several of these key issues and explores Great Satan strategy and policy options for influencing their development.

Several hot topictry includes

Mapping Summary of the Supreme Leader’s Influence on Analyzed Policy Issues 
Summary of Iran’s President’s Influence on Analyzed Policy Issues
Summary of the IRGC’s Influence on Analyzed Policy Issues
Exercised or Discussed Policy Options
Religious Overview of Government and Population Demographics of Select Nations

Some prett cool chats und formulae for professional psychic guesstimation and the one for Forecasts and Position Support of the Disposition of Iran’s Next Supreme Leader alone is worth the price of admission.

 The ancient Persian Version of the ancient Deutsch "Führerprinzip" - the autocratical concept of one cat calling all the shots for an entire nation state and all her captive ppls was formalized by the long dead Ayatollah Khomeini way back in the last millennium. 2 schools of cats have been running the place:

In the Now and Future Time, reforming pragmatic reformers really think 'Slamic Republic’s survival means to ease up - way up - on political and social restrictions and making economic expediency a top target over ideology. 


Hard-lining hard liners, led by Supreme Leader au courant, (and sev possible replacement Suprem Leaders) believe caving in on revolutionary ideals could totally queer the mix - like that perestroika stuff did to that old Collectionn of Soviet Collectivist Republics.

 Iran’s next Supreme Leader will likely be drawn from amongst the conservative Ayatollahs. His disposition is likely to be slightly more moderate than that of Khamenei. Ayatollahs Rafsanjani and Shahroudi are currently the stongest candidates, with Shahroudi being favored over Rafsanjani.

Khamenei has significant opportunities to influence the selection of his successor. His support amongst the leading candidates would likely be the deciding factor. Khamenei has not yet nominated a successor; because of either fear of diluting his powers, or because his preferred candidate, his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, currently lacks the necessary religious credentials. 

In absence of Khamenei moving to influence the issue, the Assembly of Experts holds the decisive leverage selecting the next Supreme Leader. In a close election the support of Ahmadinejad or the IRGC for a candidate could potentially determine the outcome.

Since Ahmadinejad’s election, Iran’s interpretation of velayat‐e faqih has become stricter, moving back toward its original implementation by Khomenei. The model projects that the interpretation of velayat‐e faqih is unlikely to change further in the near future. There is strong support for a stricter interpretation, but currently, the liberal and conservative elements are counterbalancing. The strong conservative coalition makes decreasing or removing the influence of any one stakeholder
inconsequential to the projected outcome, and substantial increases in the effective capabilities of stakeholders supporting more liberal interpretations are insufficient to shift the forecasts.

In the event Iran’s political landscape changes, there is a high likelihood the government would move toward stricter interpretations of velayat‐e faqih.

 Pic - "As there are no legal political parties in the Islamic Republic of Iran, political factions represent the varying ideological and material interests of members of the political elite and their supporters."

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Thankful WoW

WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Without further adieu - or a don't here are this weeks winners

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! Facebook and Twitter

Friday, November 25, 2011


1st Island Chain!

Ebberdobby is all about 44's brand new focus on Asia like laser - so fresh! So new!

Pivot, they calls it.

Sooo what all does this here heavy heralded strategical pivot mean exactly?

Trick question!
The very notion that the world’s global superpower should ever “pivot” is a false one. America cannot afford to pivot. Pivoting by its very definition means that you are focusing on one area while neglecting another. The problems in Europe, the Persian Gulf, the Middle East more generally, and the rest of the world will not disappear because we pivoted away. In fact, our neglect just assures they will all worsen. We can’t fix everything or even most things, but we can often keep everything from going to hell in a handbasket.

America remains the indispensable nation. The world’s, as well as our own, peace and prosperity rest on Great Satan remaining engaged throughout the world. America does not pivot. Being a global superpower, and usually a force for good in the world, means staying fully engaged everywhere. When we have failed to do that in the past, the result has always cost us dearly in blood and treasure.

China will not be influenced by words. It is not cowed by soft power or even smart power. It does, however, understand the hard power of military might. Seemingly in recognition of this, 44 spake Down Under, “Reductions in defense spending will not — I repeat, will not — come at the expense of the Asia-Pacific.” 

This is nonsense. Can't cut one or two hundred billion a year out of the defense budget without its affecting military ops in the Pacific. That is, of course, unless totally hot to denude everywhere else of all Great Satan's military forces.

Pic - "Strategic Switcheroo"

Thursday, November 24, 2011


 Thankful for being an American. Everything else just seems to fall into place.

Pic - "Almighty God -  We totally thank thee for raising up this laughing race of free men, avatars of Thy divine deigns that "Whosoever will" - may. That fun and free choice shall not perish from the earth - we are eternally grateful for l'nom d'guerr "Americans" 

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Dream Dates!

Direct Hit! Fire for effect! Those of us that squealed with delight as daemoneoconic kindred spirits  like Dr Fred Kagan, Danielle Pletka and the one and only devine avatar Dr PD Wolfowitz tossed out hot quizes (not unlike handgrenades - nicht wahr?) on TV to all those GOP cats hoping to end up as 45 last night, the buzz actually continues!!

Check it - 

Foreign Policy Initiatives (not sure if they picked that up from a certain site's banner l'headline haha) is non-profit, non-partisan, tax-exempt org under Sec 501(c)(3) of some kinda tax law thingy (truly - who cares?!)

Anywrought - FPI is totally hot to promote active Great Satan FoPo committed to robust, overtly girthy support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the - let us speak plainly here - hyperpuissant challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening Great Satan's global economic competitiveness repeatedly sans modesty or restraint.


Hold up - it gets sweeter mein schatzen!

FPI's N'ork City Leaders Program. The purpose of the New York Leaders Program is to cultivate the next generation of foreign policy leaders, connect them with each other, and foster high-level engagement with foreign policy experts from New York and Washington. The program will identify young professionals in a variety of industries who share FPI’s commitment to international engagement, support for America’s allies, expanding political and economic freedom, and a strong military.

Program Description

Members of the FPI New York Leaders Program will have the opportunity to participate in an exclusive series of bi-monthly dinner discussions with influential foreign policy experts, authors, and practitioners in foreign affairs to engage in thoughtful and educational conversations on topics such as global finance, international terrorism, and multilateral institutions. 

Dinners will be capped at about 20 guests to facilitate intimate discussions (whoa!), with the network of participants invited to attend as often as they can. Accommodations will be made to ensure each participant can attend as many dinners as possible. All events will take place in New York City from January 2012 through December 2012. Additionally, participants will be invited to a variety of other events hosted by FPI. 

To view current and past participants in the FPI Future Leaders Program, a similar series in Washington DC, click here.

Requirements & Expectations

FPI is seeking the best and brightest young professionals between the ages of 25 and 40 with diverse backgrounds and experience in finance, media, law, academia, non-profits, government, and Great Satan's military. Applicants should have at least a bachelor’s degree and a minimum of three years of professional experience or relevant graduate work. While American citizenship is not required, FPI asks that applicants live in or near New York, or that they be able to travel to New York for the dinners.

Annual Membership Dues
Private Sector: $150                               Non-Profit: $100                              Student: $50

Application Process

Young professionals interested in applying for membership to the FPI New York Leaders Program are asked to fill out the application form, which includes submitting the following materials:
·         Current resume
·         Letter of interest describing how the applicant will contribute to and benefit from the program
·         Letter of reference from a current or former employer or professor addressing the applicant’s intellectual and analytical abilities, foreign policy experience, and leadership qualities
·         The name, title, and organization of the person who will write the applicant's letter of reference

All application materials must be submitted in full by 5:00 PM on Wednesday, November 30, 2011.

Applicants will be notified of their selection at the end of December 2011. The program will begin in January 2012 and run through December 2012.

Any questions should be directed to FPI Director of Government Relations & Outreach Rachel Hoff at

Click here to apply.

Contact Information

The Foreign Policy Initiative
c/o Rachel Hoff, Director of Government Relations & Outreach
11 Dupont Circle NW, Suite 325
Washington, DC 20036

Office: (202)-296-3322
Fax: (202)-296-1999

"Pic - "So alla them Green Company scams got enough Stimuli cash that could fund the military for another 40 years?!!!"

P4 Versus Hiz'B'Allah


When the rocket rich Hiz'B'Allah's overtly robust (n xtra girthy) creepy Body Part Collector General creepily LOL'd last June about busting multi Great and Little Satan spy guys in Moqawama it was prett much ignored or dissed as HbA was needing to stay in the news in Arab World cause all that Arab Spring chiz was  - let us speak plainly here - queering the mix on the Little/Great Satans are the cause of all the worlds probs meme.

Course, nodobby spected Great Satan to formally hello any deets on the sitch aside from the Official Diss from Great Satan's Embassy in Leb
"These accusations are an attempt to deflect attention away from internal tensions in Hizballah."

See, Great Satan's Intell cats have been staring an organizational catastrophe in the face since last Spring when hot whispers and wicked gossip say spy recruits were framed not only in Leb, but also in Syria and Persia.
 "In April and May that a cell of 25 NATO agents in Syria were exposed, with 17 arrested. One fled to Dubai and three to Lebanon, but they were caught in Lebanon. In May of last year, the Iranian security ministry announced the arrest of a network of spies working for the CIA, including 30 Iranians." 

Aside from  Abu Muqawama's (the Good Abu - not the evil Abu Moqawama) somewhat wonderfully detailed and commented on After Action action and all the hot deets and big phazed cookies the lame stream is giving up bout the cost of Counter T ism - the real quiz is bout how P4 - the Surgin' General now at CIA - is gon extract righteous payback.

While it's true there is no state on state declaration of war betwixt Hiz'B'Allah and Great Satan - alas - no risible one liners about sucking up to 'moderate' Ss Totenkopf 3rd Reichers during WWII time are apropos - a bit of reflection should leap to mind.

Hiz'B'Allah's entire raison d'etre' is - it was created to run Little and Great Satan out of Lebanon eons ago. An Iranian fed and funded 'Resistance Auxiliary' that could project force and pressure in Persia's Near Abroad.

Thing is - since Little Satan unassed Lebanon's 'Blue Line' way back at the dawn of the New Millennium - Hiz'B'Allah has been way more adept at 'resisting' the legit gov of Lebanon than rocking up 'Divine Victories.'

And it's no clerical error that puts rocket rich rejectionists (led by the overtly robust Body Part Collector General) on Great Satan's Official Enemies list.

Hiz'B'Allah were the most proficient killers and serial tormentors of Americans throughout Cold War history til 911 time. Hiz'B'Allah owes Great Satan a blood debt that has no statute of limitations.

And it's not all ancient "Flock of Seagulls Era" concern either.

Hiz'B'Allah trained choice Mookie's Mahdi minions in Lebanon beginning in 2005. "Brother Commander" Mugahniyah himself hung in Iraq overseeing deployment, tactical considerations and advanced training.

Any American casualty in Iraq since then could very well be courtesy of Hiz'B'Allah.

The World's fully crunk with dangerous unfun, unfree rogue states such as Iran and NoKo, semi-hostile foreign intell cats such as Russia's and China's, and anti-American groups from Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence to Mexican drug cartels.

 Face it - if ever a list of enemies was drawn up that needed merciless attention unto death - Hiz'B'Allah is at the top of the list. 

Pic - "Given their record of bloodshed and hostility, the question is not whether Hiz'B"Allah should be stopped Courtney; it is how." 


As Starbuck noted at WoI - yours truly got to partake of the infamous Committee of 5's Iran Wargame @ that ancient Preysbsomething something school in Davidson ("Ain't no big deal - it's innocent"). Let's just say the cat that pretended to be HbA raised a heck of a lot of havoc, here to tell you. Catch all the after action action at Wings Over Iraq this weekend - prob starting on Tgiving Day

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Aegypt Aflame

Yeah, it's embarrassing - not unlike getting busted for hanging out all night with a cat you know your bff is plumb crazy bout.

Talk talking bout the V Check Coup d'état - in BvB Aegypt's mighty mighty (not!) military knocking heads and killing in the street as ppl want a more better xition to electile dysfunction and all the hot promises democrazy seduces with.

Beware of fake arguments kids:

Essentially that the only choice for Pyramidland is reduxing exPharaoh For Life Hosni's military rule or creating a semi sunni caliphate ala Preacher Command 
 Controversy has erupted over a document issued by the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which assigns the military the role of safeguarding constitutional legitimacy and dilutes the influence of the upcoming parliamentary elections. It also shields military budgets and personnel decisions from prospective future civilian governments. The military would appoint 80 percent of the members of the committee that will draw up the new Egyptian constitution. It’s a recipe for continued military rule.

If the choice in Egypt comes down to a Western-leaning military rule that helped maintain stability for decades or a radical, revisionist theocratic state, America should back the devil it knows.
 Totally incorrect of course - accepting dicts as the least worst thang is suspect.  The forever quest for Stability in Cold War time and sucking up to despotries (horrid or benign) provided NO stability ( to be fair - it granted tons of wars, genocide, terrorism and unstability).

Anywrought - let us cut right to it in Aegypt au courrant 

"The political  m"Hammedists wanted to know: Would the Americans allow them to run in free elections, even if it meant they might come to power? 

The Americans turned the question back at them: Would the political m"Hammedists, if they won, allow free and democratic elections, even if it might mean losing power?

As best understood, the Preacher parties that went mainstream after hiding underground for eons in Arabic Despotries are hot! No surprise - after all, the m'sk and soccer stadiums are like the only places where the secret police would let cats gather and release some steamy heated talk. 

And we get it - Slamists don't like liberal democrazy, free thinking, free press, girls gone wild, emo/goth/hip hop, cool hair dos (and a few hair don'ts), Little Satan, Great Satan's policies around the globe, fashions au courant, fun or free choice and amazingly seem to equate anything nonm"Hammedist as being an attack on m"hammedism. Tolerance ain't in their vocab. And they all seem soooo hot for something something Sharia Law

Break out the ouija board binocs for an upclose zoom in on a potential caliphate Pyramidland style 

Thinking out loud about the worst a mullahocrazy provides would practically guarantee another revolution. PO'ing the world with terrorism, shutting down the Suez, trying to time travel back to the 7th century would make the regime as illegit as the military rule it replaced. Sans foreign aid (a hard line gov would lose it overnight) a blizzard of sanctions would ensure the entire sorry mess would collapse - thus again - like Iran and the Strip - prove preachers may be great at preaching but they totally suck at statecraft

How long could a supercaliphatedocious regime hang on in a nation state about to bust with kids without devouring their young? 
"...You want to brew a revolution? There's no faster way than keeping young men from getting their just desserts, if you know what I mean. Put them off long enough, and some will resort to a strap-on — you know, the kind that allegedly wins you 72 virgins in the afterlife."
Plus, a Caliphate by design would attempt to time travel way back to when m"Hammedism was superior to the wicked women worshipping West:

"That goal is impossible to achieve. It is inconceivable in this modern world that a whole country could wall itself off from modernity, even if the majority wanted to. Could the great theocrcy that al Qaeda and others hope to erct ever completely block out the sights and sounds of the rest of the world, and thereby shield their people from the temptations of modernity? The mullahs have not even succeeded in doing that in Iran. The project is fantastic"
Aside from Clashing Smashing caliphates - any caliphate would be doomed to a struggle they couldn't win - the extreme goals hotly desired by even a semi extreme regime can never be satiated simply because Great Satan, Europa, Commonwealth Russia, China etc, etc are just not capable of retreating as fast and far as a caliphate would require.

Great Satan should ideally announce a temp suspension of military aid (billions per annum)  and launch a high profile fact finding commission about inadvertently funding V Checks (or the ever popular Pantie Police) which seem more like aggressive sex attacks than any sane vetting procedures. 

Also couldn't hurt to wonder out loud why Egypt's mighty mighty military - complete with an M1 panzer factory - cannot for whatever reasons put it to a real use like oh - say, maintaining Writ of State over Sinai or getting hot for Libya, Darfur, Somalia, Sudan or Syria.

Foreign Peace Mongers could flood and floodlight Aegypt with tons of blue ribboned fact finding commissions - sanctioned by the UN - natch. Sir Elton and Lady Gaga could spearhead a tolerance drive - publically lamenting the lack of strip clubs, casinos and gay bars. 

Uncle Tony, 42 and 43 could wonder aloud why cause Aegypt is great at making sure no censor free transmissions are allowed in, yet home grown Xians are tormented to the point of exile - or even extinction 

Getting all elected is one thing. Trying to preclude further elections simply shouldn't be allowed to stand. After all, transparent, periodic free and fair elections are the best hope kids. 

Pic - "Egypt's elections, as flawed and risky as they will be, have become a necessary evil to hasten the transition to civilian rule - elections are the least bad alternative to open-ended military rule." 

Monday, November 21, 2011

China's Near Future Puissance


Since ebberdobby all sobered up from "Shi Lang!" and all undiffused from the Diffusion of Military Power


PLA Navy is totally hot with and for overreliance on “anti-access” and “area-denial” weaponry to shut adversary forces—chiefly Great Satan—out of East Asian waters during a Taiwan contingency or some other clash along China’s nautical periphery. This constitutes a static, passive approach inimical to global navies. 

Under collectivist mommieland's anti-access strategy, diesel subses, anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), stealthy catamarans, and other shorty short-range or shore-based weapons to, uh, you know - like, erect - a dense, “layered” defense against forces that venture into China’s geographic environs. 

Pounding on forces steaming westward across the Pacific, PLA defenders could ratchet up the costs of intervention so high that Great Satan would hesitate long enough for China to accomplish her goals. Better yet, (for the wicked bolsheviks) Great Satan might desist from a rescue effort altogether.

"If the Chinese navy is training and planning to operate within fixed areas and along fixed lines at sea, then it is demonstrating its lack of understanding of naval warfare and exposing itself to failure."

Red Star over the Pacific cat ahoys and belays that with a dose ala Capt AT Mahan"s Influ of Seapower upon History 
 Astute PLA Navy commanders backed by shore-based missiles and combat aircraft could give a superior adversary like the U.S. Navy fits. If Beijing can hold U.S. forces off with its “flotilla” of diesel submarines, fast patrol boats, and anti-ship missiles, it can liberate the surface fleet to operate freely under the protective shield provided by access denial. ASBM coverage will extend hundreds of miles seaward if that “bird” lives up to its billing—perhaps even out to the second island chain. 

A map in the Pentagon’s annual reports on Chinese military power shows the ASBM “threat envelope” covering most of the Western Pacific, the entire South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, the Bay of Bengal, and parts of the Arabian Sea.

That opens up vast maneuvering room for the Chinese fleet, allowing naval commanders to operate with the mobility and flexibility Bud Cole rightly extols, not to mention the confidence that comes with ready fire support from PLA rocketeers based on home soil.

A defensive fleet can be a venturesome fleet.
 Just lucky perhaps - Collectivist China's Naval Paw Paw - Admiral Liu  - also was a General in Peoples Liberation Army. His ouija board vision of PLN  is like 3 stages:

By 2000, the PLAN would be capable of exerting sea control out to the First Island Chain, defined by a line drawn from the Kurile Islands, through Japan and the Ryukyu Islands, then through the Philippines to the Indonesian archipelago.

• By 2020, it could exert sea control out to the Second Island Chain, defined by a line drawn from the Kuriles, through Japan and the Bonin Islands, then through the Marianas Islands, Palau, and the Indonesian archipelago, with the implied inclusion of the island of Java, which would extend the navy’s control through the Singapore and Malacca straits.

• By 2050, the PLAN would include aircraft carriers and have the capacity to operate globally.

Pic - "Shashou Jian!"

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Hating Stuff

Yet I love filling in for Court who is travelling today. Oh yeah. Really really hate it if ya don't follow me IT

Saturday, November 19, 2011


WoW - the Watchers Council - it's the oldest, longest running cyber comte d'guere ensembe in existence - an eclective collective of cats both cruel and benign with their ability to put steel on target (figuratively - natch) on a wide variety of topictry across American, Allied, Frenemy and Enemy concerns, memes, delights and discourse.

Every week these cats hook up each other with hot hits and big phazed cookies to peruse and then vote on their individual fancy catchers.

Without further adieu - or a don't here are this weeks winners

Council Winners

Non-Council Winners

See you next week! And don’t forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter

    Friday, November 18, 2011

    Persian Incursion

    War Games!

    Totally safe - nodobby gets hurt in a war game!

    Also serves as a wonderfully crunk aperitif to actionable actions to later act with, look out for or pre empt. Like the Iran Wargames

    GsGf"s Supreme Leader Expert - the right honorable (he's also kinda hot!) Karim Sadjadpour at Steel Barons for Peace - shares hot deets and big phased cookies about his ' 09 gig pretending to be Supreme Leader in a diplopolititary exercise involving doing Iran with especial strikes at her tender, sensitive portions:
    The simulation was conducted as a three-move game, with Great and Little Satan and Iranian teams, each representing their government's top national security officials. The members of the American team had all served in senior positions in the gov the Little Satan team was composed of a half-dozen experts on Little Satan, including former senior Great Satan officials with close ties to senior Little Satan decision-makers; the Iranian team was composed of a half-dozen specialists, including people who had either lived in Tehran or served as officials with responsibility for Iran. 

    The simulation was premised on a surprise Israeli military strike -- absent Great Satan knowledge or consent -- on Iran's new clear facilities, motivated by the breakdown of nuclear negotiations, the ineffectiveness of sanctions, and newfound intelligence of secret Iranian weapons activity. In other words, pretty close to what we have before us now. 

    Iran's nuclear sites are purposely built close to population centers, but in the simulation, the Little Satan strike managed to cause only a small number of civilian casualties. Nonetheless, one of my immediate reactions was to order Iranian state television to show graphic images of the "hundreds of innocent martyrs" -- focusing on the women and children -- in order to incite outrage against Little Satan and attempt to convert Iranian nat'lism into solidarity with the regime. 

    To further that goal, we then invited the symbolic leadership of the opposition -- Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi (both of whom are now under house arrest), as well as former President Mohammad Khatami -- onto state television to furiously condemn Israel and pledge allegiance to the government. Instead of widening Iran's deep internal fractures -- both between political elites and between the people and the regime -- the Little Satan military strike helped repair them.

    Once our nuclear sites were effectively destroyed, we calculated that we had no choice but to escalate and retaliate in order to save face and project power to our own population and neighbors, deter future attacks, and inflict a heavy political cost on Little Satan.  

    One of our first salvos was to launch missiles at oil installations in Saudi Arabia'sEastern Province, as well as stir unrest among Saudi Shiites against their government. Our pretext was that Little Satan had used Saudi airspace to attack us, though we later found out it did so without Saudi permission. Given Iran's less-than-accurate missile technology, most missiles missed their mark, but some struck home and we succeeded in spiking oil prices enough so that Americans and Europeans filling their cars with gasoline might be irritated by Little Satan's actions. 

    We also fired missiles at Little Satan's military and nuclear targets and unleashed Hiz'B'Allah, Hamas, and Slamic Jihad to fire rockets at Little Satan's population centers. Although few of these missiles reached their targets, the goal was create an atmosphere of terror among Little Satan's society so her gov would think twice about future attacks. 

    We didn't limit our reaction to just the Middle East. Via proxy, we hit European civilian and military outposts in Afghanistan and Iraq, confident that if past is precedent, Europe would take the high road and not retaliate. We also activated terrorist cells in Europe -- bombing public transportation and killing several civilians -- in the belief that European citizens and governments would likely come down hard on Little Satan for destabilizing the region. 

    But, appreciating the logic of power, we stopped just short of provoking Great Satan. Before the simulation, I'd often heard it said that it wouldn't make much difference whether Little Satan actually got a green light from the Great Satan to strike Iran, for Tehran would never believe otherwise. 

    The secretary of state sent us a private note telling us that the Americans did not approve Little Satan's strike, and vowed to restrain Little Satan from attacking further -- if we also exercised restraint. They tried on multiple occasions to meet with us or speak by phone, but we refused. While Great Satan believed that its overtures would have a calming effect on us, we interpreted them to mean that we could strike back hard against Little Satan -- not to mention European targets -- without risking Great Satan's retaliation, at least not immediately.  

    The wargame in 09 wasn't on the up and up about Great Satan unAssing Iraq - or trying to - and funintended consequences mean a Persian incursion all the way through the Green Zone - instead of the Last Stand at Najaf... which opens up the window for a sexyfull redux ala vManstein's Kharkov backhand b slap! Nicht wahr?

    Yours truly got all invited to play a part in a war simulation called Persian Incursion at Davidson's super secret neocon coven (the infamous Committee of 5) this weekend. This exercise is like 3 days - and it is au courant with events subtle and gross.

    Full report soon!

    Pic - "Focus less onthe gun and more on the bandit trying to obtain the gun - in other words -  strike the regime itself, Courtney"

    Thursday, November 17, 2011

    L'Petite Hyperpuissant Navy

    Now hear this!

    All the boring assetted Def Bud cutting supa committee chiz has got the old neurons fired up no doubt.

    See, it’s not a quiz bout how much we want to pay for our military, but how much we need to pay. 

    Maintaining Great Satan's hyperpuissance in a crazy world is fully crunk! What all would happen cap'n if NoKo detonated a new clear device? If the Pakistani government fell? If China turned militant? 

    Uncle Leon just promised that Great Satan would be totally hot for the gunboat diplomacy wars of PACRIM

    GsGf's nat'l sec and def policy cat worked as a nat'l sec analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. His current research agenda includes military strategy and technology, Northeast Asia, Central Command - and defense budgets. He's not only kinda hot - he's also semi psychic. 

    Check it
     One answer is that downsizing must be based on innovation and efficiency, not retrenchment or disengagement. Nor — as many argue that the era of counterinsurgency is ending and ground forces must be scaled down — can all these cuts be made to the Army. Cuts must be spread among all four military services. The Navy, in particular, could come up with about a quarter of the savings. 
      The Navy maintains a robust global presence with about 285 major warships — including 11 aircraft carriers, 11 large amphibious ships and more than 50 state-of-the-art attack submarines. These ships are mainly deployed in the Mediterranean, the Western Pacific and the Persian Gulf. Since the cold war, the Mediterranean has been de-emphasized to a degree, but the Persian Gulf area has become only more important. The Navy feels stretched thin, and wants to expand the fleet by more than 10 percent, to about 320 ships. However, that is unrealistic in the current budgetary environment. It is also unnecessary, if we are creative in how we use the fleet. 

    The Navy has figured out how to do more with less in the past. During Ronald Reagan’s presidency, the fleet was double what it is now. But after the cold war, seeing the writing on the wall, the Navy got more innovative. It based some specialty ships like minesweepers overseas, and rotated crews by airplane to allow sailors a break without having to waste time bringing the ships home. It also chose to tolerate gaps in naval presence in some theaters, viewing consistency as less crucial to deterrence than before, and “surging” forces at unpredictable times and places instead. Where some degree of steady presence was viewed as necessary, the Navy sent smaller surface ships or large-deck amphibious vessels rather than aircraft carriers. 

    Lately, the Navy appears to have stalled a bit in its innovations. While crews are rotated for minesweepers, some coastal patrol craft and the ballistic missile submarine force, the practice has not been extended to other ships. This means that a typical surface combatant, like a cruiser or destroyer, spends about six months in home port training for a deployment, then sails for a six-month mission abroad, consuming perhaps two of those months in transit, and then spends another six-month period back in home port for maintenance and recovery. This is a very inefficient cycle.
    By keeping a ship abroad for a couple of years and having two crews share that vessel as well as a training ship at home, the Navy could improve its deployment efficiency by up to 40 percent per ship, accomplishing with about three and a half ships what, on average, might have required five. Focusing on the Navy’s large surface combatants, cruisers and destroyers, this approach could theoretically allow roughly 60 ships (with slightly less than half of them deployed abroad at a time) to maintain the global presence that the Navy says it needs, rather than the 94 ships it is currently pursuing. 

    Not all ships can be rotated the same way. It is difficult to imagine flying out the crews of aircraft carriers, which can number up to 5,000 sailors (in contrast to the 300 or so on major surface combatants). Some money could be saved on carriers by focusing less on the Mediterranean and substituting large-deck amphibious ships for routine missions. 

    These changes would take time. We would need to expand access to overseas port facilities for ships that stayed abroad, for maintenance and resupply. There are many reasons for caution: the Navy has to be prepared for new operating regions, like the increasingly ice-free and thus navigable Arctic, and any new plan must allow for reserves of extra ships, in case vessels are sunk in some future conflict. 

    All that said, these innovations would allow the Navy to shrink its fleet while avoiding pulling back from either the crucial Western Pacific or the conflict-prone Persian Gulf. The savings could be in the ballpark of $15 billion a year, or, since the changes would have to be phased in, more than $100 billion over 10 years. They would require some major changes to Navy culture and habits, but sailors have made bigger changes before, and they are up to the challenge. 

    Pic - "Wounded Giant: America’s Armed Forces in an Age of Austerity.”