Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Flaming Syria

Suriya al- Kubra! 

Dr General President For Life Bashar (Bay Bee) al Assad gave up hot deets and big phased cookies to something something UK Telegraph ( also known as a newspaper) 'bout the perilous perils of Doing Syria.

See, if the wicked Woman Worshipping West gets all hot to intervene (after all - if Colonel Khadaffy got the old heave ho over just threatening innocent civies getting a Waffen Ss Das Reich redux Oradour-sur-Glane style COIN treatment) then why cause Syria is intervention immune? 

"Syria is the hub now in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans? Any problem in Syria will burn the whole region. If the plan is to divide Syria, that is to divide the whole region." 

Oh, really? 

Actually a great case could be crafted that the entire region needs to flame up in a flaming earth quake. That's hardly likely, tho the proxy wars would most likely keep Syria bizzy bizzy for a while.
Al Assad's power to foment trouble beyond Syria's borders is much diminished. It is no longer certain that even Hiz"B"Allah or HAMAS would dance to Damascus's tune.

Anything approaching civil war, however, would plainly be dangerous for the region. There is little foreseeable prospect of a decisive military intervention similar to Libya because of US and European domestic priorities. For the time being, Syria remains a regional concern. Last week, Syrian troops were reportedly sowing minefields along the Lebanese border to block arms smuggling. 

As this conflict worsens, Syria's neighbours, and not just Lebanon, which has always been in its neighbour's shadow, will be drawn in farther. Syria's allies in Iran, and to a lesser extent Iraq, see their own regional standing at stake. Turkey is already trying to influence the opposition to limit the power of pro-PKK Kurdish groups.

In a region of ethnic groups overlapping borders and complex allegiances, the question is not who will intervene in Syria's uprisings, but who will not. It is easy to imagine such meddling getting out of hand and Syria descending into a protracted low-intensity war of factions, including proxies for outside forces. This would hardly be beneficial for Syria's growing opposition movement.

Yeah, it's also easy to imagine that intervening in Syria - not to create some wonderful Disnyland like society - but to annihilate the  illegit Allawicious regime - key cats and all their precious assets - would be nice too.

Pic - "I won't waste my time with this, this Syrian opposition"