Friday, April 8, 2016

After Abbas

Oh - it's true bay bee! The cat so cold as ice he be nom d'guerr'd twice is Fatah's Palestine West Bank Daddy Abu Mazen/M'moud Abbas.

Kinda like a President For Life - he's ruled part of Palestine over a decade past his legitimate election - the LAST election no less.

Alas, nodobby lives forever so is it time to check out the next President of Palestine?

 Mohammed Dahlan, though exiled fro the Fatah Party back in the day, may very well be the next cat to do Palestine.

Dahlan’s chances to access high Palestinian leadership positions all the way to the presidential seat are likely to be higher should he manage to gradually gain recognition at the regional and international levels. This may contribute to his gradual success in eventually becoming the successor to Abbas despite the internal obstacles, which are reflected in the divide within Fatah about him and in Hamas’ historical hostility.

Hamas might turn the page on its historic hostility toward Dahlan should it reach certain agreements with him, which is possible in the Palestinian political arena, where no alliances or hostilities are unending as common interests might push adversaries to meet halfway.

Dahlan appeals to Arab countries with his fight against the Muslim Brotherhood, as this is the main concern for these Arab states that fear the Islamist influence. In September 2015, Dahlan said his hostility toward the Muslim Brotherhood dates back to 1981, when he was a student at the Islamic University of Gaza, thus presenting himself as the leader of the fight against the Brotherhood in an attempt to get closer to the capitals of political influence in the region.

Besides Dahlan’s foreign activities and international influence, his internal role is no less important. This is especially true given Hamas’ position and the long history of hostilities between the movement and Dahlan. When Dahlan was head of the Preventive Security Services in Gaza, he had hundreds of Hamas members arrested in 1995-2000 because they were involved in armed operations against Israel.

The most important world capitals that provided Dahlan with this regional and international network are Cairo and Abu Dhabi, where Dahlan enjoys undeniable influence since he is considered the security adviser of UAE’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. This position has provided Dahlan with influence that many UAE officials may not enjoy within the state.

Dahlan also enjoys considerable influence in Egypt through his direct ties with Sisi, which allows him to influence Egyptian media. In addition, he has been deploying efforts to buy some news websites in Jordan.

On the other hand, Dahlan’s relations with Saudi Arabia do not seem to be at their best following the scathing comments by Saudi academics and analysts against him, accusing him of threatening the security of Saudi Arabia and attacking its religious scholars.

Dahlan may be well-aware that the most important factor for any Palestinian leader’s success is to have a network of regional and international relations that help him fulfill his ambition to become the president of the Palestinian Authority or the Fatah movement. It is worth noting that Dahlan also spends money on his supporters and followers spread across the Arab world. He does so in the Palestinian territories and among Palestinian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon through charity projects worth millions of dollars, mostly UAE money, in order to gain influence among Palestinians.