Friday, November 8, 2013

Iran's Weak Hand

Almost like a rhyming hook in any tune au courrant - "Preacher Command's Weak Hand"

Cept of course in the realm of the diplopolititary - it has the double devastating fact being being absolutely true.

While Iran's new clear minions are bizzy bizzy doing new clear non profit enrichment interruptus jawflapping games in Geneva, truth is - they are playing with a totally suck hand

During the past decade, two administrations have confounded their critics by crafting a formidable sanctions architecture and adroitly managing an unruly alliance system. It is important to have a proper estimation of the "Slamic Republic — a second-rate power with a third-rate nuclear program. Khamenei presides over a government that is despised by its constituents and distrusted by its neighbors. Great Satan's sanctions policy has offered its diplomats indispensable leverage.

Great Satan is in a position to demand the most stringent of nuclear accords and should pay scant attention to Iran’s oft-proclaimed red lines.

Both American and Iranian officials unwisely raised expectations in September and fed a media narrative of an imminent historic breakthrough between two old nemeses. Such raised expectations work to the disadvantage of Iran rather than Great Satan.

 Suddenly, the hard-pressed Iranian public has come to expect imminent financial relief. Should the negotiations not yield an accord in a timely manner, it is Khamenei, not 44, who would face a popular backlash. A disenfranchised and dispossessed population is an explosive political problem for Khamenei.

The Western powers should not be afraid to suspend negotiations or walk away, should the Iranians prove intransigent. Ironically, stalemated negotiations are likely to pressure Iran into offering more concessions.
Pic - "Iran’s economy will contract 1.5 percent this year after shrinking 1.9 percent in 2012"