Friday, July 22, 2011

The Next Russian Revolution

Rossiyskaya Federatsiya!

The most common, familiar regime change of all is the the Coup d'état. Long time fave of military cats worldwide (it could be said  Land of the Pure has enjoyed more than their fair share) - 14 alone attempted in 2004!  

Electile dysfunction is fixing to hit up Mommie Russia soon and GsGf's Commonwealth political advisor former Duma dude Mark Feygin shares the next Russian Revolution may be just a kiss away. And Federation Military may play a big part:

There are several reasons why the army is unhappy of late with the country’s leaders, Courtney.

First, the Kremlin refused to hold the annual officers’ conference this year.

Second, there has been an increase in criminal cases opened against top military officials on corruption charges.

Third, the military reforms that Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov has instituted have been a serious blow to military leaders who have a financial interest in maintaining the status quo.

The potential for a military rebellion is greater now than it has been since the early 1990s.

One reason that officers have been able to share examples of abuse and better mobilize their discontent is access to the Internet, social networks and officers’ forums.

Conscript soldiers are also unhappy. Although the conscript term was decreased to one year in 2008, conscripts are still treated as serfs by their superiors.

In today’s world, only developed, stable democracies can afford to have a professional army and not risk falling victim to a military coup. Authoritarian and lacking legitimacy, the Kremlin fears a rapid transition to a professional army, and this is one of the reasons why the conscript army is not abolished, despite all of its inefficiencies.

The Kremlin believes that the threat of a military coup in these conditions will increase significantly. The transition to a professional army in Russia will have to wait until the moment when the leaders are democratically elected.

The State Duma elections in December and the presidential election in March could exacerbate the instability in the military if the Kremlin resorts to mass falsification of votes to compensate for United Russia’s sharp drop in popularity among voters.

Election fraud was one of the main factors in the Color Revolutions. If Russians take to the streets to protest the government’s falsification of elections like Georgians did in 2003 or Ukrainians in 2004, the Russian army could very well join in the popular rebellion against the Kremlin.

Pic - "Geopolitical perspectives are linked to the security issues of the Near Abroad" with Silvia Demeyer


Heron said...

I doubt it. As he says, the common soldiery are upset at command, not at the political leadership (well, anymore than every other Russian is). So what if the officers are angry that what Putin's done to every other facet of society is now being done to them; who's going to fight for them if they rise? The soldiers they treat like crap? Hardly. Besides, is Putin really that unpopular? My impression is that most Russians don't necessarily like what he's done, but he's given them stability, slow economic improvement, and a few reasons to be proud again. This makes him tolerable, as opposed to the Russian military leadership who most Russians despise. If it ever came down to it, the people would choose the devil they know and the peace they have over an untried, unproven, military junta that rebelled for the sake of preserving its own privileges and interests.

Not that I think it'd ever actually come to that. I mean seriously; how many journalists has Putin had killed now? How many political and economic opponents has he gotten the drop on and jailed? If coup planning ever reached a serious stage in Russia, I'd imagine he'd come down on the plotters pretty quickly.

Nygdan said...

I don't think its necessarily that the officer class will overthrow Putin, they might get some Plutonium cocktails if they did that, but that doesn't mean they can't overthrow the democratic 'order'.
The article notes that the upper levels are upset that they government is trying to prevent them from being abusive and corrupt, so are they really all that far from sending a few armoured vehicles to the steps of the Duma, or machine gunning a few political headquarters and newspapers? Look at Pakisan, the military doesn't have to be in charge de jure, just able to control the important events de facto.

And if there's a public revolt if Putin's party steals the election, THEN the military, including the conscripts, can step in, and that'd be a coup. A counter-coup, just like last time.

The article talks about this in the context of the 'color revolutions'. Guess we can't call it the Red Revolution.

Anonymous said...

Please tell me this entire blog is just a bad college joke created by a bored, spaced out college student, and that you are still stuck on that thrilling, enlightening experience you had of reading one of Ann Coulter's pulp screeds.

No wonder the American Empire is headed towards bankruptcy.

celticdragonchick said...


You don't have to read the blog if your don't like it. I may have strong disagreements with GSGF on some policy issues, but I am thrilled to see young women actually intersted in diplomacy and military issues. We need more, not less.

And continuing...

The problem with not having a professional army is readily evident when you look at the recent spat with Georgia. Of course Georgia was overmatched, but the quality problem with the Russian military was embarrassingly evident. The Russian Army had real problems with Georgian defences and their Israeli made ATGM's which had a masty habit of blowing up T-80 tanks. I still cannot figure out out the Russian Air Force could not manage to get full control of Georgian airspace(Georgian SU-25 Frogfoot attack fighters were in action the entire time. They should have been knocked out of the air and the runways blown to bits by the second day. Unbelievable).

Anyways, I am a newcomer here and your blog looks like fun. :)

Keep doing what you do!

Annemarie aka celticdragonchick

celticdragonchick said...

meh. My typing skills are FAIL today. *sigh*

Anonymous said...

Anonymous - Please. This site is "...way more better..." than anything ancient shrews could devise.

Donald Douglas said...

Nice comments, Courtney!

You da bomb!