Friday, June 29, 2012

Beyond Worst Case Analysis

Soooo,  aside from the sad, played happy talk about deterrence, containment and a crazy assetted peice thinking out loud how awesome a new clear Preacher Command could be for regional stability (yeah - it's pretty dang dumb) - the cool kids at Washington Institute deliver a really hot! PDFing about Perisa's response to a naughty Little Satan enrichment interruptus panty raid on Iran's tender, sensitive portions.

Most cats allus go on about how cause Preacher Command would act out in rage and retaliate, the old tried and true asymmetrical, terrorism, missile attacks, naval combat, and closing the Strait of Hormuz. 

8 possible acts are thought out loud about like  
1. Terrorist attacks on Little and Great Satan targets. Likely, but causing limited destruction.

2. Kidnapping of American citizens, especially in Iraq. Likely, but limited in impact, as in the 1980s in Lebanon.

3. Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Very likely, especially via proxies, but causing limited destruction.

4. Missile strikes on Little Satan. Likely: a few missiles from Iran getting through Israeli defenses, leading to casualties likely in the low hundreds; missiles from Hezbollah limited in number due to domestic Lebanese considerations. Unlikely: Hamas getting involved, having distanced itself from Tehran; the Syrian government interfering, since it is battling for its life against an ever-stronger opposition army and possibly the Turkish armed forces. Overall, missile attacks are unlikely to do devastating damage.

5. Attacks on neighboring states. Likely: especially using terrorist proxies, for the sake of deniability. Unlikely: missile strikes, for Tehran does not want to make more enemies.

6. Clashes with the American Navy. Likely, but, given the balance of power, doing limited damage.

7. Covertly mining the Strait of Hormuz. Likely, causing a run-up in energy prices.

8. Attempted closing of the Strait of Hormuz. Unlikely: difficult to achieve and potentially too damaging to Iranian interests, because the country needs the strait for commerce.

All in all a  
"high-risk endeavor carrying a potential for escalation in the Levant or the Gulf . . . would not be the apocalyptic event some foresee.”

Makes the case that the dangers of hitting Persia where it hurts falls far short of the dangers of a new clear Preacher Command under the control of her New Clear Praetorians in the Revolutionary Guards 

Pic - "Panty Raid"


Schenck said...

Of course the other problem is that, once hit, they will have justification for closing off future inspections and building an out and out nuclear weapons program. Lots of people think that they're not set on building weapons right now (whether that's correct is a seperate issue), but after a strike, most countries would openly say that they're allowed to build weapons now.

And either way, a strike will at best set back their program significantly (and at worst miss some major parts of it), what happens once they ramp up efforts and get the bomb? Without a strike, if they do get a bomb, they might hold off on using it, like most nuclear countries have. If there is a strike, surely they'll immediately use it (hopefully on Israeli targets instead of inside the US).

So a strike on their facilities seems to guarantee a nuclear attack a few years after.

Or worse, with public sympathy after a strike, they might build nuke weapons and distribute them to proxies. If Hamas set off nuke, (or if they were really smart, and we know the Persians, who invented chess to pass the time are!) they'll have Syria act as a nuke proxy. Iran would come through the result of that unscathed, hell they might overtake what's left of Syria after, say, the US-Israel invade it, Iraq-like, after a Syrian Nuke attack. Between that and Hezbollah the Iranians will effectively have an access corridor to the Eastern Med! Russia wouldn't let an american proxy have any control over Tartus either!
Having written that, it actually doesn't seem too far fetched!

GrEaT sAtAn'S gIrLfRiEnD said...

All true. Yet a new clear Preacher Command is a more bigger prob than one than got dissed decisively. Consider - if al Qods was hot to blow up an American restaurant in DC to kill a Saudi cat -w/out new clear weaponry - think how unbound an illegit regime fully crunk would act out.

There has been a lot of whispers and hints that attacking the new clear stuff is a smokescreen. A decapping leadership strike may actually offer the best chance...