Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Syria's Strategy

Suriya al- Kubra!

Maintaining control for the illegit Allawicious regime in Basharopolis is and has been the driving goal of Dr General President For Life Bashar al Assad - the only strategic goal.

And the tactics on hand fit the sitch
Rebel Free Syrian Army dominates a swath of territory along Syria’s northern frontier with Turkey. That matters a great deal, because the insurgents also control formal border crossings, through which they are able to move recruits, weapons and supplies. Bashar’s options for dealing with this threat are extremely limited. 

Launch a ground assault on the rebel zone of control? Ah, his overstretched army, heavily engaged in a vicious battle of attrition in the streets of Aleppo, probably lacks the troops for the task.

 That leaves him with two options: either turn a blind eye to the FSA’s dominance of Syria’s borderlands, or pound this region with mortars and artillery – even if this means that shells and bombs fly over the frontier into Turkey. The daily round of cross-border bombardment suggests that Mr Assad has chosen the latter option. Instead of a series of mistakes, the most plausible explanation for the attacks on Turkish soil is that Syria’s dictator has consciously decided to escalate. 

This should not have come as a surprise. At every stage of this conflict, Mr Assad has shown himself willing to cast aside the restraints on his campaign to save his regime. The air raids that his jet fighters now mount on rebel-held towns provide the most graphic evidence. For the first year of the uprising, Syria’s Russian-supplied MiG and Sukhoi attack aircraft remained firmly on the ground; now they are in action day after day.

The next logical step would be for Syrian commanders to commence long-range bombardments of rebel-held territory, regardless of the risk of hitting Turkey. In the past six days, that phase of Mr Assad’s campaign appears to have begun. In the process, more and more people are being forced from their homes. 

Syria is not only “exploding”, in the literal sense that dangerous projectiles are being lobbed into a neighbour; the country is also expelling enough of its citizens to strain the tolerance and hospitality of other states.  
 Unless Syrian forces disguise themselves as Kurds the LOLable Ottomanic Military Machine - awesome on paper - yet absent when they are truly needed - will continue to lie back and enjoy it...

Pic -  "Power stems not just from size, strategic location, a strong economy, able diplomacy, and military capacity. It also requires the will to act – the understanding that true leadership means the courage to take and implement even decisions that are deeply unpopular in some quarters."