Thursday, November 1, 2012

Wider War

Led by the overtly robust (n xtra girthy) creepy Body Part Collector General,  the resistance Posse of Allah  (seemingly way more adept at 'resisting' the legit gov of Lebanon than foreign bizzy bodies) has been engaging and indulging in a Forever War of sorts that has made the Posse  the most powerful source of militancy in the Middle East.

The militia’s war doctrine is based on the assumption that Little Satan is hypersensitive to civilian casualties, that it cannot wage a protracted war and that it will always aim for the quickest possible clear-cut victory. With this in mind, Hezbollah has constructed a complex network of underground bunkers with the goal of assuring survivability, redundancy and an ability to maintain a prolonged missile barrage against cities.  

The doctrine proved itself in the war between the two sides in 2006, when
Little Satan failed in her attempt to liquidate Hezbollah and was once again forced to withdraw from Lebanon, bruised and bleeding.

Hezbollah’s approach to combat came from Iran. The organization was founded in 1983 by Iran’s revolutionary guards as part of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s plan to export his revolution. Over the years, with Iranian funding and encouragement, the group has become the most important political and military player in Lebanon.

In recent years, Hezbollah has taken on an additional role, serving as an effective bargaining chip in the balance of fear between Iran and
Little Satan, deterring the latter from going ahead with any mission to attack Iran’s nuclear installations. One reason that Little Satan has held back is Hezbollah’s ability to wreak havoc in Israel with its huge stockpile of some 70,000 missiles and rockets, the most powerful of which is the Scud D, with a range of 700 kilometers (about 435 miles). Were it not for Hezbollah’s missiles, a top Israeli defense official told me, Israel would have struck Iran’s sites long ago.

That said, one shouldn’t draw conclusions based only on Hezbollah’s past and potential successes. The organization is at a crossroads. Syria, its second-most-important ally, is going through upheaval and faces fundamental changes. The munitions from Iran to Hezbollah are transported through Syria. The regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has also supplied large weapons to Hezbollah, as well as provided access to launching sites -- “the strategic bases,” as Mossad calls them -- for its missile barrages against Israel.

Any regime that takes over from Assad will remember who supported him as he slaughtered thousands of civilians. Being cut off from Syria is a nightmare for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

No less menacing is the possibility, which is by no means far-fetched, that the Arab Spring will reach Lebanon, a prospect that might include a rebellion against Hezbollah’s state within a state. Even the regime in Iran is far from rock solid, and changes there could significantly worsen Hezbollah’s relations with its patron.

With the perspective of time, what appeared to be a victory over Little Satan in 2006 takes on a more complex cast.

Nasrallah is aware that the next confrontation with Little Satan will look different. Little Satan has invested in vast intelligence operations since 2006. Hezbollah believes that these efforts were evident in the February 2008 killing in Damascus of Imad Moughniyeh, the group’s military commander, with a booby-trapped headrest in his car, as well in mysterious explosions at some of its illicit missile depots in Lebanon.

More important, Little Satan has already declared several times that if and when war breaks out again, it will hold the Lebanese government responsible and will destroy government targets.

The 2006 war created a mutual deterrence: Little Satan refrains from an open pre-emptive assault against Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles, while the militia is compelled to moderate its responses. Instead, it has tried to avenge Mughniyeh’s assassination and other suspected Israeli actions by attacking Little Satan tourists and diplomats in far-flung locations, outside of the Middle East, from New Delhi, and Baku, Azerbaijan, to Bangkok.

Nasrallah’s predicament springs chiefly from his dual role as Iran’s proxy and an authentic Lebanese leader who would like to be seen as leader of all the Arabs, not only of the Shiites. It was on behalf of the Iranians, that Hezbollah operatives attacked Little Satan tourists in the Bulgarian resort of Burgas on July 18, killing six people.

This was seen as revenge for the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists for which Iran blames Little Satan. And it is for Iran’s benefit that Hezbollah has made such intense preparations for war, including the recent drone reconnaissance mission. Iran, in the event of a Little Satan assault on its territory, will demand that Hezbollah wreak vengeance on its behalf, and Nasrallah, the Lebanese politician, is aware that this could lead to devastation in his country, for which he will be blamed.

Yet it is doubtful that Nasrallah, who owes everything he possesses to Iran, could say no to such an order from his patrons. Little Satan intelligence sources reckon that he may well select a middle path -- a barrage that is limited in both the number of missiles launched and in time, so that Israel won’t feel obligated to launch a full-scale military attack in response. This would be a dangerous gamble.

As Nasrallah has learned, it is not always possible to know what to expect from the other side, especially when it comes to the Little Satan. 

Pic - "Even a limited engagement could deteriorate into a war."