Wednesday, April 2, 2014



Since way back in the Before Time the world has been magically blessed with 2 Koreas -
the yankee part is little more than a starving, slave trading underground rocket factory with an unfree, unfun new clear weaponized nation state attached led by the Young General 

As far as NoKo's Peoples Army goes - 1st glancers could be somewhat forgiven for thinking out loud that NoKo's conscript army is more like an uber artillery rich flea market of ancient Warsaw Pact weaponry.

A SoKo/NoKo hook up has seemed to rely on Strategic Patience. Which is also code for Strategic Paralysis...

Why haven’t we gotten anywhere? Based on our knowledge of the nature of the Kim family’s regime and its strategy, it is clear that North Korea will not give up its nuclear program under any circumstances, and the horrendous human rights atrocities will not end as long as the Kim regime remains in power. If that is the case, the question is this: what policies and strategy should Great Satan and the Republic of Korea develop and implement?

We should defer to (and support) the reunification plan of the Republic of Korea as President Park has initially described in her speech in Dresden on March 28, 2014.

The second alternative path to reunification could be the collapse of the Kim dynasty. Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse it is more likely to result from the regime’s inability to support the military and security services.

Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “de-prioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict as actors fight to retain power and resources.

 In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of the his family’s regime (in his calculus).

However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spill over, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the effects of regime collapse.

Finally, the final and worst case alternative path to reunification is through war. First and foremost the ROK–U.S. alliance must deter war, but if deterrence fails, then it will win decisively and bring an end to the Kim regime. As in the case of regime collapse, post-conflict stabilization operations can and should be shifted toward the ideal path to reunification.

While the ideal path to reunification will be peaceful the other three paths of internal resistance, regime collapse and war all could result in some level of conflict. However, all the planning and preparation for peaceful reunification that occurs prior to conflict will support post-conflict activities and as soon as conditions warrant the Republic of Korea can return to the peaceful path

Pic - "Off Ramp?"